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Paradoxically, in a season in which Antonio Gates wasn't Antonio Gates, owning one of the league's better tight ends became a big leg up on fantasy glory.

Gates was still good in '07. He caught nine touchdowns, the fourth straight year he has caught that many, and grabbed 984 receiving yards. But he was limited by a bad toe, and placed only a distant fourth in targets among tight ends. So it wasn't so much a matter of Gates coming back to the pack as it was several members of the pack deciding Gates' rarefied air looked fun. In value-based drafting terms (in value-based drafting, or VBD, a player's fantasy points are compared to the fantasy points of the baseline player at his position), there was less difference between Gates and the other top tight ends, but more difference between the elite group as a whole and the remainder of the tight end population.

Here's a chart to describe what I mean. Along the vertical access, you'll find the "finishing place" from each season; in other words, "1st" indicates the points scored by that season's highest-scoring tight end, "2nd" indicates the points scored by that season's second-highest-scoring tight end, etc.

Tight end VBD performance, 2002 to 2007
Place	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002
1st	78	65	93	105	87	61
2nd	74	45	54	99	60	56
3rd	69	39	51	65	25	39
4th	62	31	42	44	9	31
5th	52	28	41	34	8	24
6th	48	24	35	33	8	21

While the first- and second-place scorers each year remain relatively consistent in terms of how far above the baseline tight end they score, note that the fourth-, fifth- and sixth-place finishers all took a big leap in '07. That implies that, in hindsight, while it wasn't crucial to pay for Gates, it was extremely helpful to a fantasy owner's cause to have one of the six elite tight ends. Will 2008 perpetuate this renaissance of the top tight end? Read on.

Not coincidentally, the six guys we consider "elite" are the six players with the highest VBD fantasy scores of 2007. Antonio Gates comes first because he has led tight ends in fantasy scoring in three of the past four seasons, and was a close second in the fourth. He still was the NFL's most productive tight end on a per-target basis last year, and if his toe is healthy in '08, he gives you the steadiest chance at getting far-above-average points from this position. … Surprisingly, Jason Witten led tight ends in fantasy scoring last year. He became Tony Romo's security blanket, getting double-digit targets in a game on six occasions, including Week 14 against the Lions, when he tied the record for most catches by a tight end in a single game (15). … It seems Kellen Winslow will have injury questions every year, but his skills have just kept growing. He caught 82 passes last year, and with an aerial game as strong as Cleveland's, he has 100-catch upside. … Tony Gonzalez's Hall of Fame credentials are long since secure, but just in case, he led the NFL in catches by a tight end last season, the sixth time he has done so. Gonzo also led all tight ends in percentage of his team's looks in the red zone. … Dallas Clark finally stayed relatively healthy for a full season in '07, and while he probably won't ever rank near the league lead for receptions by a tight end, he's the guy Peyton Manning trusts most in the red zone, and he scored an NFL-high (for a tight end) 11 touchdowns in 2007. … A traditional West Coast offense doesn't accentuate the tight end, but then again, Chris Cooley isn't a traditional tight end. More an H-back than a road grader, Cooley will give Jim Zorn's new Redskins offense another deadly threat in the middle of the field. Cooley also saw his red zone targets jump from eight in '06 to 19 in '07.

In his six seasons, Jeremy Shockey has turned in only two truly "elite" seasons, but he also has never been worse than 11th in scoring at his position. That his career is marked more by consistency than by superstardom belies Shockey's self-promotion, but he'll get a fresh start in New Orleans. With Shockey talking himself into a corner and backup Kevin Boss nipping at his heels in New York, the Giants traded him to New Orleans, where Shockey will play for a more wide-open offense. But can Shockey stay healthy an entire season? Will he be consistent? Shockey probably can't be considered a top-10 tight end because of his associated risk. … L.J. Smith has good name recognition, but he never has taken a step up into top territory. Last year, knee and groin injuries limited him, and while the Eagles slapped the franchise tag on him and plan on using him around the end zone, he doesn't qualify as fantasy-starter material right now. … The Rams' offense hasn't been tight-end-centric in many years, especially when its offensive line has struggled. Last year, that meant Randy McMichael had to stay in and block, and he wound up with only 39 catches, his lowest total in five years. It's possible McMichael winds up a slightly above-average fantasy tight end this season, but owners definitely should adjust his ceiling.

If Vernon Davis is ever going to make good on his first-round talent, this had better be the year. Mike Martz is in San Francisco now, and the new offensive coordinator swears up and down he's committed to getting Davis the ball in a multitude of ways, but no tight end has ever excelled in Martz's system. If the Niners treat Davis like a wide receiver, that might change. But Davis hasn't exactly established himself as the "headiest" of players in his two-year career. … The Falcons rid themselves of Alge Crumpler this winter, but the seven-year veteran wasn't out of work long, signing with the Titans. Always a good bet to score at least five touchdowns, Crumpler definitely has the body and red zone ability to be a favorite target of Vince Young's. But Young needs to get more accurate for anyone catching his passes to have consistent fantasy value. … Ben Utecht moves from Indianapolis to Cincinnati, and could pick up some of the slack left by Chris Henry's departure. Utecht has never been a starter, but he had the best hands of any tight end with 30 or more receptions last year, so his upside is pretty high. … In Week 17 of the '07 season, in his first start as an NFL quarterback, JaMarcus Russell targeted Zach Miller nine times, and Miller caught eight of 'em for 84 yards. That's the beginning of some decent chemistry, so while relying on any of Russell's pass-catchers right off the bat is a risky proposition, it wouldn't be a shock to see Miller become a fantasy starter in Oakland's revamped offense. … With Shockey now in New Orleans, look out for Kevin Boss, a second-year guy out of Western Oregon. Heck, even with Shockey in New York last season, Boss was effective for the Giants in two-tight end sets, and caught two touchdowns on two red zone looks. He could break out this season.

Dustin Keller is one of two rookies who figures to get a lot of first-team snaps this season. He's an H-back type out of Purdue who is limited as a blocker, but has very nice hands and route-running ability. Keller's fantasy value might get accentuated if Chad Pennington wins the Jets' competition at quarterback, since Pennington doesn't have a big arm and has been known to toss a dump-off pass or two in his time. … The other rookie tight end who should make an immediate splash should be John Carlson in Seattle. Carlson was one of Brady Quinn's favorite targets at Notre Dame, and his good blocking ability, route running and speed should help make him a three-down player. … When Ben Utecht left for Cincinnati, the Colts needed a backup for Dallas Clark, someone who can play in two-tight end sets. In April's draft, Indy took two "someones" in Jacob Tamme and Tom Santi. There really isn't much else tight end-wise on the Colts' roster, so one of these guys figures to become a Peyton Manning target, and that's never a bad thing. … USC's Fred Davis won the Mackey Award, which goes to the top collegiate tight end, and was subsequently drafted by the Redskins. We'd like Davis more if he'd gone elsewhere; there's this guy named Cooley already in D.C. As it is, Davis doesn't figure to have much fantasy value, barring an injury to Cooley, and could actually wind up vulturing a bit of Cooley's value. … Brad Cottam missed most of his senior year at Tennessee because of a broken wrist, so it's tough to say whether Kansas City has drafted Tony Gonzalez's eventual successor. For this year, though, Cottam won't have fantasy value unless Gonzo goes down.

It seemed odd that the Bears took Greg Olsen in the first round last year, and then signed Desmond Clark to a two-year extension, which will keep him in Chicago through 2010. On the surface, this time-share arrangement would seem to favor Olsen, who is more of a natural receiving threat, while freeing up Clark to do more blocking. But these things rarely work out that smoothly, and having both guys on one team really prevents either from being particularly fantasy-worthy. … Tampa Bay seems like another team whose tight end should have significant fantasy value, considering Jeff Garcia will run a short-passing, high-accuracy offense once again. Alex Smith gets a lot of snaps for the Bucs, but Jon Gruden can't help amassing bunches of skill-position players. This winter, he signed Ben Troupe, who could be a drain on Smith's value, and Jerramy Stevens is still around, though he's suspended for at least the first two games of the regular season.

The most important toe in football this season doesn't belong to a kicker; it belongs to Antonio Gates. Gates had surgery on his dislocated toe after the playoffs, and as of this posting hadn't even begun running yet. However, the Chargers say that while he might miss some of training camp, he'll be ready to go in Week 1. Certainly, Gates' injury concern should force him down draft boards a bit, though we have enough faith in his importance to the Chargers' offense that we think he'll be back and ready to go when the season begins, which is why we still have him (barely) rated No. 1 at his position. … Kellen Winslow had knee surgery this winter, so like Gates, he has to be bumped down your overall draft board just a little. The Browns think he'll be fine to begin the year, and in fact expect him to be ready for training camp. But he hasn't participated in any team activities yet, and has a long history of knee problems, so nothing is for sure. … Tony Scheffler figures to be a hot name in fantasy drafts this year. He was third among tight ends in yards per catch and scored five touchdowns despite being limited by injury. Unfortunately, Scheffler's troublesome foot is still causing him pain, so while the Broncos maintain he'll be ready to go for training camp, there's concern here. … By playing in all 16 games in both 2005 and 2006, Todd Heap had just about shed his injury-prone label, but he suffered through a disastrous '07 campaign, playing in parts of just six games and catching only 23 passes because of a bad hamstring. He's supposedly healthy now, and the Ravens hope to split him out wide this year and give him all kinds of mismatches. But of course, that'll only work if he can run. … Benjamin Watson scored five touchdowns in New England's first five games last year but hurt his ankle in Week 6 and caught only 18 more balls the rest of the season. He had surgery to repair damaged cartilage in the offending ankle, and as of early June wasn't healthy enough to participate in minicamp. The Patriots say they expect him back but are notoriously tight-lipped about injuries.

Since only 15 to 20 tight ends are owned even in deeper fantasy leagues, true ownable "sleepers" are relatively hard to come by. But there are a few guys who could wind up winning starting gigs and become relevant at least for bye week fantasy duty. First among these is Anthony Fasano, whom the Dolphins acquired from the Cowboys this winter. Fasano was a favorite of Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano when that duo was in Dallas, and he'll be given a legit shot to beat out David Martin. Martin is a better downfield threat, but Fasano is a better blocker with good hands. … L.J. Smith is operating under the franchise tag this year, which means the Eagles are likely not wedded to him long-term. If Smith struggles with injuries again, Brent Celek could get a crack, and he caught 16 of the 22 passes thrown his way last year. … I already mentioned the Colts' backup situation, and if there's a clear winner in the battle between Jacob Tamme and Tom Santi, that guy would have a pretty nice gig in the Ben Utecht role in the Colts' offense. … Jeff King of Carolina became a chic pickup for about half an hour last year, after he caught 10 passes in Week 8. Alas, King is mostly in the NFL because he's a good blocker, so if you're looking for a Panthers tight end sleeper, you're better off thinking about Dante Rosario, a converted fullback with good hands. Rosario struggled with his blocking during his rookie year, but if he gets that squared away, he could be an interesting red zone option.

It's silly for me to say, "Get one of the top six tight ends, no matter what," because next thing you know, six tight ends will have been drafted in the first round. However, other things being equal, this is a year I'd really and truly like to have one of those top six guys. And while Antonio Gates is our top-rated player at this position, it won't be a terrible shame if someone else takes the plunge on him in the fourth round. However, by late in Round 5 or early in Round 6, I'd expect those six elite guys to be gone, so you should plan accordingly. It's by no means an absolute necessity for a championship fantasy team to have one of the elites. But it doesn't hurt. Oh, and outside of the deepest of leagues, don't bother drafting a backup tight end. You'll be able to find a bye-week replacement when the time comes.

In leagues that use $200 budgets, on average last year you had to pay $25 for Antonio Gates, and no more than $10 for any other tight end. Needless to say, that wasn't a good bargain, and if that's where your auction goes this year, I'd stay away from Gates. However, because of the Chargers stud's toe issues, I'd expect those elite tight ends to be more tightly packed dollarswise. Spend about $10 (but no more than $15) for one of the better guys on your list, and then don't bother buying a backup.

Christopher Harris is a fantasy baseball, football and racing analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writing Association award winner across all three of those sports. You can e-mail him here.