ESPN

August 28, 2009, 11:48 AM

Autopick draft strategy

With the right settings, you still can draft a good team without even being there

Comment Email Print Share

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
Archive

Even the best-laid plans sometimes go awry.

Over the years, I have always made it a point to participate live, in person, in all of my fantasy football drafts. None of that ranked-list, over-the-phone or over-the-Internet drafting, not if the rest of my league was making a point to set a draft date, get together and consume nothing but family-friendly beverages while making only kind, considerate comments about one another's picks.

Obviously, in this age of the Internet, a few of my leagues have migrated entirely online, and that's OK, but even accounting for that, I've tried to set one minimum demand of myself: At least be as connected to the draft as the next-most connected owner in the room. If there's a live site for the draft, be there. If not, but there's a phone line, call in. Failing either of those, be in the online draft room and be on time. The reason: If any owner is more tapped into the flow of the draft than you, then he or she has a distinct advantage over you.

For years, I was able to make it work, shuffling my schedule so I could be present for all my drafts. Then something changed.

My son arrived.

Fantasy football might be a priority for me, but family comes first. Always. I think most people understand that approach, but until you've had kids, you might not entirely appreciate it. Having a child means that, inevitably, unexpected things are going to come up that might stand in the way of my fantasy league responsibilities.

Fortunately, while it's more challenging for me scheduling my many fantasy drafts today than it was, say, five years ago, I'm also a lot more comfortable participating in an autopick draft than I was five years ago. The primary reason: We've increased the control you have over your team in an ESPN autopick draft. In addition to setting your own customized player rankings, you can now set an autopick strategy, breaking down your picks by setting desired positions by round and numbers of players selected overall by position.

Sounds a lot better than the old way, where an even slightly off-kilter rankings list might have meant you wound up with three or four quarterbacks, or worse, three defense/special teams, right? Now, if you've hopped on the two-receivers-in-the-first-two-rounds bandwagon -- a strategy growing in appeal -- you can set both of your first two picks to be wide receivers. Want one of the top three quarterbacks with one of your first two picks? Set your second-rounder to be a quarterback. Just want to pick the best available player in any given round? You can do that too. All in all, there are 10 different options you can pick for your round-by-round strategy.

Options for Pick-by-Pick Strategy:

Best Available
Quarterback
Running Back
Wide Receiver
Tight End
Place Kicker
Team Defense/Special Teams
QB or RB
QB or WR
RB or WR

Just this past week, for the first time in as long as I can remember, family responsibilities forced me to miss one of my drafts. So, with our new autopick system in mind, I decided to use that draft to test out a strategy. For full disclosure, this was a live, via-phone draft, so it wasn't in an ESPN draft room. But what I outlined for the commissioner was the same thing as you'd set on our site. As in, I pre-ranked my players and listed desired positions to pick by round. The only difference was that the commish was the one making my picks by hand, as opposed to the autopicker doing it. Understand, then, that human error comes into play, as you'll see below when he went astray of my strategy on an occasion or two.

The chart lists each round's desired position, the projected player I expected I might get with my request, and the player I ultimately got in each round:

Interestingly, things panned out better than I expected. My Round 1, 2, 4 and 6 picks were actually players I had ranked higher at those positions than the ones I projected to get. The only misstep -- Mendenhall -- made sense only because I already had three receivers at the time he was picked.

Mine isn't the only strategy you could employ. You could pick two running backs like the old fantasy football standard dictated. You could ensure you get one of the top three tight ends by setting that as your desired position in the fifth round (or perhaps even fourth, if you're a late pick in that round). You could target one of the elite defenses by slotting that into your ninth or 10th rounds.

To give you a head start, I've listed in the chart below five other strategies to consider. You could also create your own. After all, remember that if everyone else in your league adopts the same strategy, it'll have an adverse effect on the outcome of your autopick draft!

Strategy 1: The classic running back/running back strategy, most popular around the turn of the millennium. Not that running backs have become less scarce since 2000 -- in fact they have become more so -- but with the advent of the running back committee, the position as a whole doesn't quite make the massive impact on your weekly performance as it once did. The danger here, obviously, is that if you have an early draft slot, say one through five, you might wind up taking a second-round running back who really belonged in the third. For that reason I've slotted the tight end where it is, an attempt to nab one of the top three or four at the position, and also advise getting one of the better defenses around Rounds 10-12, while loading up on "Best Available" in many later rounds.

Strategy 2: If you're a fan of Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, especially if you know which one you want and have a draft position in the late-first/early-second round, slotting your quarterback in Round No. 2 isn't such a bad idea. The chances of all three being gone by the 20th pick of the draft are rather slim, but having spent an early pick at that position means having to effectively draft "best available" at running back or wide receiver for as long as possible otherwise.

Strategy 3: The classic wide receiver/wide receiver strategy, which is generally most effective with teams that draft in the latter half of the first round, when the chances of landing two from the group of Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss are highest. I've seen many a successful fantasy team that has drafted 10th (or 12th in a 12-team league) and taken two receivers to kick off the draft. The only drawback is that depth becomes a priority at running back, hence four different rounds specifically reserved for that position. Tight end is also less of a priority; tackle that with a "Best Available" in the middle rounds.

Strategy 4: Teams with early first-round draft positions might experience the most success by going running back/wide receiver/wide receiver, as value tends to run that way for teams with the top five draft slots. You'll get someone from the Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Maurice Jones-Drew or Matt Forte group, yet still probably get two receivers ranked in the top 10 or 12 at their position with your next two picks. It's a somewhat conservative, safe approach, but might be the smart one for teams locked into those spots. Quarterback and tight end value seems about right in Rounds 6 and 7, so I've slotted them accordingly.

Strategy 5: A bit of an adjusted Strategy 4, except addressing the quarterback position with one of the Big Three. Chances are the earlier you're slotted in the draft the more of a risky strategy this becomes, as Brees, Brady and Manning could be off the board by pick No. 20 in the worst-case scenario, but those with the fifth or sixth draft slot might be successful going in this direction. This strategy also targets depth at running back and wide receiver while also going after a top-shelf tight end talent.

A final piece of advice: Test out a few autopick strategies to see your results, as I did, before your league has its "real thing."

Now if you'll excuse me, my other top priority calls … sounds like it's time for my little buddy to have his diaper changed!

Tristan H. Cockcroft is an FSWA award-winning fantasy football analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.