ESPN

June 30, 2009, 5:26 PM

Point-per-reception league strategy

Comment Email Print Share

By AJ Mass
ESPN.com
Archive

The smallest thing can make the biggest difference. On the surface, you wouldn't think that a single point added to a player's score for making a catch would change the game of fantasy football all that much, but when you make this seemingly insignificant alteration to your league's scoring system, the forces of change become impossible to halt.

Let's take a look at the projected top 15 players in a 2009 league that essentially follows the rules for ESPN standard scoring-- 4 points per TD pass, 6 points per TD run/catch, 1 point per 25 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, -2 points per turnover.

Notice something about the positional breakdown of this list? There's not a wide receiver or tight end to be found. In fact, Larry Fitzgerald, the projected top wide receiver for 2009, ranks 23rd on this list, and we don't get to the first tight end, Atlanta's Tony Gonzalez, until we drop as low as 80.

Everything changes when we add in that one little, seemingly innocent, yet maniacally nefarious extra point. Suddenly, all the old rankings go out the window, and you need to take a look at that point-per-reception (PPR) draft board with a brand new set of eyes. Let's go position by position and examine the impact of that one little point.

Quarterbacks

Except for the odd bit of sleight of hand where a quarterback like Chad Pennington runs a post pattern while a "wildcat" takes the snap from center, you'll find a goose egg in the receptions column for your QB-slot each and every week. In that regard, there's absolutely no difference at all when it comes to ranking your quarterbacks in comparison to each other in a PPR league, but there is a huge difference in where quarterbacks now fall in relation to the other positions. Remember our projected top 15? Take a look at it now when we add in our one point per reception.

Suddenly, we've gone from eight quarterbacks in the top 15 to only three, none in the top 10. In fact, switching to a PPR-scoring format drops the number of quarterbacks in the overall top 50 to 13, down from 22 in a more standard system. That's a huge difference, and it is the reason you can absolutely afford to wait quite a few rounds longer before drafting your No. 1 signal-caller.

Running Backs

When it comes to running backs, it's not hard to place the usual suspects at the top of your draft lists. If you limit the conversation to backs who are not expected to share the carries, and thus projected to rush for more than 1,000 yards with double-digit touchdowns, you should not be surprised by the list of running backs below, ranked solely based on the ESPN preseason projections.

However, not all of these backs are created equal. Michael Turner and Brian Westbrook may be separated by only a single point in the list above, but if you add PPR into the mix, Westbrook's expected receiving output will leave the Falcons in the dust. Backs like Reggie Bush, Ray Rice, Felix Jones, Leon Washington and rookie LeSean McCoy of the Eagles all see their values skyrocket in a PPR league. At the same time, one-dimensional runners like Jonathan Stewart, Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson, LenDale White and Willie Parker all need to be lowered considerably on your draft-day cheat sheets.

Even among the potential first-rounders, the addition of the single point creates havoc for the preferred order of selection.

Wide Receivers

At the wideout position, you expect most of your stud receivers to get somewhere in the same neighborhood of catches. Where PPR makes the biggest difference is in inflating the value of the possession receivers like Wes Welker, who may not always be their quarterback's first choice when the team gets into red-zone territory. Similarly, the "home run hitters" -- those receivers who may make a game-breaking catch for 50-plus yards at any given moment -- will see a huge hit in their ranking because of a much lower number of expected catches and (generally speaking) a far greater yards-per-reception (YPR).

The following chart shows some of the biggest movers in each direction, when the number of catches play a part in the tabulation of individual value.

Tight Ends

Tight ends are a bit of a different breed. Either they're not part of the passing scheme at all, and they are used as an "extra offensive lineman," leading to few receptions, or they're an integral part of the passing game, working across the middle of the field to keep the chains moving. As a result, adding a point per catch has little effect on the overall tight end rankings. Your top three are still going to be Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten, with very little separating the trio.

Tthe PPR adjustment, for this position, needs to be made on how early you can expect to have to select these elite players, so you don't miss out. The following chart shows the expected round-by-round breakdown in both ESPN standard and PPR leagues, based on our preseason projections.

While that one little point per reception may not seem like it has a huge effect, it actually does. Wait on the quarterbacks a bit longer, and snatch up the standout tight ends more quickly. A running back with hands of stone is not nearly as valuable as one who often gets the call out of the backfield, and those possession receivers who may not have as much flash as their speed demon counterparts can make all the difference between a win and a loss. Change your draft lists accordingly, or you will find out that little things mean a whole a lot.

AJ Mass is a fantasy baseball, football and college basketball analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.