Wide receivers preview
Picking a wideout early is now an accepted practice ... as long as you pick the right one
As first-round options go, wideouts have been gaining on running backs over the past decade. In the early 2000s, many of the best fantasy rushers were clearly more valuable to fantasy owners than average rushers, compared to the best fantasy receivers, who weren't much more valuable than average receivers. But as the years have passed, more elite wideouts have separated themselves from their league-average counterparts.
Let me capture this concept this way: To compare the relative merits of different positions in fantasy football effectively, you must compare the best players at each position to the values of the average player at that position. For instance, in 2008, Drew Brees might have scored more fantasy points than any other player in football, but because the point-production spread of quarterbacks isn't as wide as it is for running backs, you can make a convincing argument that Brees wasn't the most valuable player in fantasy. That distinction, in my opinion, goes to DeAngelo Williams. The baseline quarterback's fantasy point total last year was 218, while the baseline running back's point total was 148. That means Williams' 283-point performance stands out more than Brees' 305; Williams' "delta" from the baseline was around 50 points higher.
This imperfect system, called "Value-Based Drafting" or VBD, nevertheless takes us partway to being able to compare apples and oranges. If we look at "deltas" for all players, we start to get an idea of which positions stand out as most valuable, which can to some extent guide us in our early-round drafting.
So, should you consider a wide receiver in the first or second round? Well, in the past seven NFL seasons, you can see that the top-10 players in terms of VBD have become less concentrated at the running back position:
| Top 10 in VBD points by position (2002-08) | |||||
| Year | RB | QB | WR | TE | |
| 2002 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2003 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2004 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2005 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2006 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2007 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| 2008 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
Clearly, the extent to which, the 10 best running backs dominate fantasy football has diminished greatly since 2002. These days, it's more like the five best running backs that dominate and then "others" follow. Does it pay to take a quarterback super-early? Only if you're lucky enough to choose the right one (Peyton Manning in '06, Tom Brady in '07, Brees in '08). No, the only true viable alternative to grabbing rushers in the first and second rounds is drafting a wide receiver instead. So, let's take a look at the '09 season's top wideout stories heading into camp and then reconvene.
The Elite
Wide receiver rankings (by tier)
Determining who is No. 1 among WRs (Larry Fitzgerald) isn't tough, but deciding when to take him might be.
Tier 1
1. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
2. Andre Johnson, HOU
3. Calvin Johnson, DET
4. Randy Moss, NE
5. Steve Smith, CAR
6. Greg Jennings, GB
7. Reggie Wayne, IND
8. Roddy White, ATL
9. Anquan Boldin, ARI
10. Terrell Owens, BUF
11. Dwayne Bowe, KC
12. Marques Colston, NO
Tier 2
13. Brandon Marshall, DEN
14. Wes Welker, NE
15. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA
16. Braylon Edwards, CLE
17. Roy Williams, DAL
18. Vincent Jackson, SD
19. Chad Ochocinco, CIN
20. Bernard Berrian, MIN
Tier 3
21. Lee Evans, BUF
22. DeSean Jackson, PHI
23. Hines Ward, PIT
24. Antonio Bryant, TB
25. Santana Moss, WAS
26. Eddie Royal, DEN
27. Santonio Holmes, PIT
28. Kevin Walter, HOU
29. Anthony Gonzalez, IND
Tier 4
30. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ
31. Donald Driver, GB
32. Torry Holt, JAC
33. Laveranues Coles, CIN
34. Lance Moore, NO
Tier 5
35. Steve Breaston, ARI
36. Derrick Mason, BAL
37. Devin Hester, CHI
38. Josh Morgan, SF
39. Donnie Avery, STL
40. Ted Ginn Jr., MIA
41. Domenik Hixon, NYG
Tier 6
42. Patrick Crayton, DAL
43. Bobby Engram, KC
44. Percy Harvin, MIN
45. Kevin Curtis, PHI
46. Chris Chambers, SD
47. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR
48. Justin Gage, TEN
49. Nate Burleson, SEA
50. Joey Galloway, NE
51. Michael Jenkins, ATL
52. Nate Washington, TEN
53. Sidney Rice, MIN
54. Jeremy Maclin, PHI
55. Troy Williamson, JAC
56. Earl Bennett, CHI
57. Arnaz Battle, SF
58. Deion Branch, SEA
59. Isaac Bruce, SF
60. Hakeem Nicks, NYG
61. Steve Smith NYG, NYG
62. Mark Clayton, BAL
63. Devery Henderson, NO
64. Keenan Burton, STL
65. Robert Meachem, NO
66. Kenny Britt, TEN
67. Chansi Stuckey, NYJ
68. Chris Henry, CIN
69. Greg Camarillo, MIA
70. Brian Hartline, MIA
Not Sexy, But They Get The Job Done
Wes Welker might actually be sorry to see Matt Cassel go. With Brady out, Welker became the No. 1 receiving option in New England last year, getting 150 targets to Moss' 126. Hey, that's not to say that Welker isn't steady. The past two seasons, he has exactly 112 receptions. His problem in '08 was a lack of touchdowns. He dropped from eight touchdown receptions in '07 to three last season. But even if he doesn't become an elite end-zone man, he'll still get you 1,100-plus receiving yards. T.J. Houshmandzadeh jumps from a mostly Carson Palmer-free season in Cincinnati to the West Coast offense in Seattle, and I foresee some growing pains. Still, Housh has the advantage of being an elite possession receiver, meaning he doesn't have to get super-comfortable with downfield routes to have value. Expect him to be the Seahawks' main red-zone target, a role that should provide him a nice baseline of fantasy scoring. All Hines Ward does is catch touchdowns. No, wait. That was Cris Carter. All Ward does is rack up 110-plus targets, 70-plus catches, 900-plus receiving yards and around seven touchdowns. Not All-Pro stuff, but the good thing is that even when he is hobbled by knee injuries (which seems to be every season), he fights through them and produces. I suppose one season isn't really enough to decide whether Eddie Royal qualifies as either unsexy or workmanlike, but he's off to a good start. His rookie season was a possession receiver's dream: 129 targets, 91 receptions, 980 yards and five scores. Royal isn't a burner, but he has fine hands and terrific footwork, and is a perfect partner for a deep threat like Brandon Marshall. Of course, now we'll have to see if Marshall actually stays in Denver (more on that in a moment) and whether Kyle Orton can be an adequate replacement for Jay Cutler. But in a Josh McDaniel's offense, good hands are almost always rewarded. I've already been grandiloquent about Johnson and Schaub, but Kevin Walter also has it in him to be an important part of the Texans' equation. I don't think you can automatically write him down for eight receiving touchdowns, the number he reached in '08, but five or six, along with 800-plus yards, seems reasonable. He's not some little waterbug operating out of the slot; Walter is 6-foot-3, 215 pounds and sure handed.
Falling Down

Opportunity Knocks
There isn't much Terrell Owens hasn't done as a wide receiver or for fantasy teams. He has topped double digits in touchdowns eight of the past 11 seasons, and the only season he failed to exceed 1,000 yards receiving in the past nine years was because he broke his leg in 2004. But it's hard to argue that his 2008 season wasn't at least a little disappointing: 1,052 yards (his fewest in a healthy year since 1999), 10 scores and "Threat Level Orange" whining about the Dallas offense. Now T.O. heads to Buffalo to try to remake himself yet again. Coach Dick Jauron isn't known as a high-flying offensive mind and Trent Edwards hasn't shown he has the wing to get it deep consistently. But once again, even at age 36, Owens has a good chance to be a fantasy beast. In '08, Dwayne Bowe slightly improved on his impressive rookie season, but now he heads into that archetypal third year, he's in a pass-favorable Arizona offensive system and his quarterback just spent a year throwing to Moss and Welker. Indeed, while the advent of Todd Haley and Cassel to Kansas City isn't the only reason to like Bowe this season (he's also a freakish leaper with good hands and red-zone ability), it doesn't hurt. Bowe doesn't have Fitzgerald skills, but could he be Boldin? With Owens gone from Big D, Roy Williams has the ball in his court. Williams' ankle was never right after the Cowboys traded two first-rounders for him last season, which explains his poor production (198 yards and one touchdown in 10 games) after the deal. Of course, his problem throughout his five-year career has been his health. In fact, he has had just one injury-free season in his career. If he can keep his knees, ankles, feet and hamstrings healthy (which is a mighty big if), Williams will have the keys to a high-octane passing machine. But he carries an awful lot of risk. Antonio Bryant was my No. 1 receiving sleeper in this column last year, so chalk up one for the redhead. After 88 receptions, 1,248 yards and seven scores, he's a sleeper no more. But with Joey Galloway gone from Tampa, there's no longer any question about who the lead dog is. Bryant is No. 1 here, which means defenses will be keying on him as the offense zeroes in on getting him looks. The real concern with Bryant might be at quarterback. Is there a viable option in '09 among Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich and Josh Freeman? With Marvin Harrison gone from Indianapolis, someone must inherit his 107 targets and 60 catches in '08. The lead candidate is obviously Anthony Gonzalez, who figures to move out of the slot and to Reggie Wayne's old split end position, while Wayne fills the flanker spot. Gonzo doesn't have great speed and did make some mistakes in '08, but he can be the reliable possession guy the Colts need opposite deep-threat Wayne. Plus, there isn't a lot else on the Indianapolis receiving depth chart. Laveranues Coles might have taken a hit in terms of media exposure when he jumped from the Jets to the Bengals this winter, but he certainly got an upgrade at quarterback. Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens will be flinging it in Gotham, but Palmer should be back at full strength in Cincinnati. The fact that Houshmandzadeh is gone from Cincy means a whole mess of possession-receiver targets should be available, but is that really Coles' game? He has been a reliable outside guy throughout his career. Does he create too much duplication of effort with Ochocinco?
Rookie Crop

Unsettled Situations
Boldin's talent isn't in question, but his contract is. Boldin fired agent Drew Rosenhaus after Rosenhaus was unable to coax an extension from the Cardinals, and the big receiver still hasn't participated in any workouts with the team this summer. The presumption has been that eventually Boldin will cave -- he is, after all, under contract -- but it's certainly not impossible that the team could decide it has had enough and deal him. For the moment, we've ranked Boldin like he'll be in Arizona catching passes from Kurt Warner in Week 1. Steve Breaston has more than handcuff fantasy value right now, only because he'd likely inherit the job if Boldin departs. Marshall looked at the Cutler melodrama this winter and decided it sounded fun. In search of a big-time contract extension, Marshall has asked for a trade, and reportedly cleaned out his locker and posted "goodbye" messages to Broncos fans on his personal blog. I don't see how the team can accommodate this request, but who knows. Marshall is a top-five fantasy talent at receiver, but he has had enough off-field issues that he has become a pretty major headache. Alas, the Broncos have a whole bunch of Brandon Lloyds and Jabar Gaffneys behind Marshall on the depth chart. Yuck.
How will the Giants replace Burress? Hixon looks like the favorite to occupy Plax's downfield and end-zone role, but despite being the team's leading receiver in 2008, Hixon is largely unproven, and really faded down the stretch. Smith seems pretty well penciled into Amani Toomer's old possession role, while guys like Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, Nicks and Ramses Barden all seek to prove they deserve to start for what promises to be one of the best teams in the NFL. Patrick Crayton seems like a natural fit to jump into the Cowboys starting lineup now that Owens is gone, but the coaching staff loves Miles Austin. At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, Austin was very raw coming out of tiny Monmouth College, but he looks like a potential star. The role opposite Roy Williams figures to be third on the totem pole in terms of catches from Tony Romo (Jason Witten is still in the fold, after all), but he could still be valuable. After Randy Moss and Welker, the Patriots' receiving depth chart is a bit fuzzy. The team signed Joey Galloway, but Galloway doesn't have a history running the kind of possession routes the team needs opposite Moss. Greg Lewis comes over from the Eagles, but his body of work is underwhelming, and he might be there mostly for special teams. Sam Aiken never produced much in Buffalo, but he could get involved here too. The way Tom Brady likes to spread around targets, someone here figures to be an occasional fantasy factor. The Titans spent a $9 million signing bonus to lure Nate Washington from Pittsburgh, but he reportedly has been slow to adjust to the Tennessee offense. In the meantime, Justin Gage and Kenny Britt are in coach Jeff Fisher's early play-calling plans, and third-year man Chris Davis has reportedly been impressive in OTAs. As long as Kerry Collins is throwing the passes, everyone has somewhat limited upside. But opposing defenses will stack the box in effort to slow down that running game, so opportunities could be there.
Injury Concerns
After missing big chunks of the past two seasons and undergoing knee surgeries in each of the past two winters, Marques Colston is the ultimate boom-or-bust fantasy pick. If he stays upright, Colston will be the lead receiver in one of the league's most aggressive downfield attacks. If he gets hurt, well, he won't be the lead receiver in one of the league's most aggressive downfield attacks. Reviews of his performance this summer were solid, but we won't really know anything until he makes it through another full season. Like every Chiefs receiver, Bobby Engram has all sorts of upside, seeing as he is into Haley's new Kansas City offense. Cassel proved last year in New England that he likes reliable possession receivers over the middle, a la Welker, and that's the spot on the field in which Engram has made his living. But Engram has missed at least three games in four of the past five seasons; last year, he broke his shoulder blade. Ouch. And the presumed starter opposite Bowe is Mark Bradley, who has never played a full season and has played in more than 10 games just once in five seasons. Last year, it was an injured calf muscle that did Bradley in after he signed with the Chiefs. Like Engram, he has a ton of potential in a high-flying offense, but has many question marks. Deion Branch tore an ACL a year-and-a-half ago, and needed another knee surgery this winter. That, combined with a bad heel that limited him in the second half of '08, has the Seahawks planning for the possibility of life without Branch (hence the signing of Houshmandzadeh). Branch's former running mate, Nate Burleson, was off to a promising start last year, but he also tore an ACL, and was lost for the rest of '08. These two guys could return to former glories, or they could disappear under an avalanche of receiving prospects like Ben Obomanu, Jordan Kent and Butler. Greg Camarillo was off to a good start in his sophomore season, with 613 receiving yards through 10-plus games. Then he tore an ACL, and was lost for the season. Camarillo is an excellent fit for ball-control maestro Chad Pennington, and the early reports on his recovery have been good, in that the Dolphins expect to be able to re-insert him into their starting lineup to begin the '09 regular season. But we won't really know for sure until the games count.
Sleepers
Calling the No. 28 wide receiver (in our case, that's Walter) a sleeper is silly. Many leagues start three wideouts per team, so receivers are in demand on draft day. To unearth true sleepers, I'm going deeper: Nobody rated higher than No. 50 is allowed on this list. My first suspect is a guy I've been hyping for more than a year: Morgan of the 49ers. With Crabtree in the fold, Morgan probably isn't going to be the highlight-reel guy in this offense, but in mini-camp he looked like a starter at the flanker position. Morgan is a physical player who catches the ball well and can break tackles. I'm not banking on high aerial output out of San Francisco, but I think Morgan becomes a fantasy starter in a lot of leagues this year anyway. I already mentioned Austin as belonging to the Cowboys' uncertain depth chart after Williams, and if Austin doesn't make too many glaring errors in training camp, or even early in the season, he'll bypass Crayton, a solid player who probably is best suited to run from the slot. Austin is no slot man; he's a big, fast and powerful dude who can do some damage if teams double Williams. With Cutler in Chicago, it's worth taking a fresh look at all the receivers in Bears Land. You know about Devin Hester, and he'll probably run as the team's No. 1. But I think Cutler's college teammate, Earl Bennett, has a real chance to be a Royal type in '09. Bennett is a mid-sized player, who catches everything thrown his way, hustles like crazy and doesn't make mistakes. I think he'll get lost as defenses strain to stop Matt Forte, Hester and Greg Olsen, and occasionally make teams pay. Regular readers also recognize Mike Walker as a guy I've been pumping up for more than a year. Matt Jones, Reggie Williams and Jerry Porter are gone from Jacksonville, so despite Holt's presence as a clear No. 1, there should be plenty of work available for Walker. But he must stay healthy. Walker has battled knee injuries since his senior year in college. Still, at 6-foot-2, 208 pounds, and capable of running a 4.45 40, he's the best athlete the Jags have at this position. I imagine new Rams' coach Steve Spagnuolo will play it close to the vest offensively to remain competitive this year, so expecting too many St. Louis receivers to have big years might be a folly. You already know about Donnie Avery (our No. 38 receiver), a deep threat that made a midseason splash as a rookie in '08. But you might not know Keenan Burton, who fits Spag's conservative mindset a bit better. I've always thought Burton was a bit like Ward; he's a smart, tough, savvy guy, who doesn't have extreme size or speed, but works his butt off. I'm hoping he wins the starting job alongside Avery. If he does, he's a deep sleeper.
Draft Strategy
The theory behind taking wideouts early has gained some momentum over the past couple seasons. If you refer to the chart near the top of this article again, you see that the players who have separated themselves from their positional baselines are no longer just running backs. In 2007, four wide receivers presented elite VBD fantasy value, and in '08, three wideouts turned the trick. But here's the rub: In '07, those men were Moss, Owens, Edwards and Wayne. In '08, they were Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson. Go back to '06 and the two VBD top-10 receivers were Harrison and Owens. In '05, the three top-10 guys were Smith, Fitzgerald and Santana Moss.
Getting the picture? The problem isn't deciding to take a wide receiver in the first or second round. The problem is figuring out which one to take. Everyone and their dog is positive Fitzgerald will wind up on the top-10 VBD list for 2009, outdistancing the baseline receiver by a huge amount. And while he has done it twice in the past four years, he also hasn't done it twice in the past four years. Weren't we all sure about Edwards last season? As always, the optimal fantasy draft doesn't come down to the cleverness you exercise while deciding which position to grab when. Instead, what matters is which specific players you believe in. Sure, if you can persuade yourself that Fitz is a can't-miss player and will deliver tons more points than the average receiver, then by all means grab him, because data indicates there's no reason a wideout can't easily crack the VBD top 10. But don't take a wide receiver (or running back, or quarterback, or tight end) just because your positional strategy tells you to do so.
Slavish devotion to any positional mantra usually winds up subverting your talent-evaluating powers. If the lesson of wideouts over the past few seasons teaches us anything, it's that we should consider all positions early, and simply try to find the guy who'll trump his positional comrades by the most fantasy points. Because scarcity tends to be more of an issue at running back than at any other position, yes, you should make sure you get your starting rushers in the first four or five rounds. But outside of that, focus on getting the best players, people.
Auction Strategy
Wide receiver stars tend to go for a bit less money than their counterparts at quarterback and running back, simply because there's less scarcity at the position. Still, you'll probably have to spend $30 to $35 to get your No. 1 receiver. In general, I'll budget around $60 or $70 (in leagues with a $200 cap) for my entire wide receiver stable, which means my No. 2 receiver might go for between $15 to $25, and everyone else will be straight from the bargain bin. If you try a "studs and duds" strategy, you better be darned sure about the guys you've earmarked as your studs because dud receivers often contribute absolutely nothing. It's worth noting that because there are so many decent receivers with upside in the NFL, this position tends to be a favorite for "hiding" a player and hoping no one nominates him in your auction until most of the money is gone. It feels pretty good when you get a guy like Michael Jenkins for a buck.
Christopher Harris is a fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner. You can e-mail him here.
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