Playing with the numbers: A closer look at targets
Receiving statistics are easily swayed by opportunity, so it's important to have an accurate gauge of those opportunities. Enter one of my favorite statistics: targets.
At this point each season, I take all players with 25 or more year-to-date targets and then compare their average number of targets from Weeks 1-8 and then Weeks 9-12. By ranking those players based on the variance of those two numbers, we can gauge which players are receiving more opportunities and which ones are getting fewer.
First, the 25 players who are receiving more opportunities:
| 2007 Receiver targets (top 25) | |||
| Player | Weeks 1-8 (Avg.) | Weeks 9-12 (Avg.) | Change |
| D.J. Hackett, WR, Seahawks | 2.00 | 9.25 | 7.3 |
| Randy Moss, WR, Patriots | 8.13 | 13.00 | 4.9 |
| Bobby Engram, WR, Seahawks | 7.14 | 12.00 | 4.9 |
| Kellen Winslow Jr, TE, Browns | 7.71 | 12.00 | 4.3 |
| Brad Smith, WR, Jets | 3.13 | 7.33 | 4.2 |
| Josh Reed, WR, Bills | 4.50 | 8.50 | 4.0 |
| Keenan McCardell, WR, Redskins | 1.33 | 5.25 | 3.9 |
| Marques Colston, WR, Saints | 7.86 | 11.75 | 3.9 |
| Kenny Watson, RB, Bengals | 3.00 | 6.75 | 3.8 |
| Frank Gore, RB, 49ers | 3.29 | 7.00 | 3.7 |
| Justin Gage, WR, Titans | 3.57 | 7.25 | 3.7 |
| Jeremy Shockey, TE, Giants | 6.38 | 10.00 | 3.6 |
| Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns | 1.17 | 4.50 | 3.3 |
| Ryan Grant, RB, Packers | 1.50 | 4.75 | 3.3 |
| Chris Baker, TE, Jets | 2.86 | 6.00 | 3.1 |
| Drew Carter, WR, Panthers | 3.00 | 6.00 | 3.0 |
| Tony Scheffler, TE, Broncos | 2.33 | 5.25 | 2.9 |
| Ted Ginn, WR, Dolphins | 2.13 | 5.00 | 2.9 |
| Bo Scaife, TE, Titans | 4.43 | 7.25 | 2.8 |
| Justin McCareins, WR, Jets | 1.88 | 4.67 | 2.8 |
| Chris Cooley, TE, Redskins | 5.71 | 8.50 | 2.8 |
| L.J. Smith, TE, Eagles | 2.50 | 5.25 | 2.8 |
| Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders | 1.43 | 4.00 | 2.6 |
| Ernest Wilford, TE, Jaguars | 3.00 | 5.50 | 2.5 |
Comments
If you waited for D.J. Hackett to get healthy, you were handsomely rewarded; he became Matt Hasselbeck's No. 1 option in short order. Unfortunately, Hackett reinjured his ankle and will miss additional time.
How scary is it that Randy Moss is actually receiving more than 50 percent more opportunities to produce in recent weeks?
One might have expected Bobby Engram's targets to decrease with the return of Hackett and Deion Branch, but it didn't happen. Instead, Engram is more of a security blanket than ever.
If you want to know which player will be the top tight end during the fantasy playoffs, know this: It won't be Antonio Gates. It's going to be Kellen Winslow Jr., because he gets so many opportunities.
Former quarterback Brad Smith is quietly becoming a fantasy option. Considering the Jets are relying on a first-year starter at quarterback, you should closely monitor the situation, especially as you try to identify potential sleepers for next season.
Don't be too encouraged by Josh Reed's potential in Buffalo, because the Bills' return to Trent Edwards as the starting quarterback all but kills the passing offense.
Keenan McCardell = fantasy Hail Mary.
Marques Colston's re-emergence is more a product of Drew Brees' resurgence than anything else. Simply put, if your quarterback becomes more accurate, more passes are caught, which means more opportunities.
Kenny Watson and Frank Gore are receiving almost seven targets per game out of the backfield. That's sick, especially in points-per-reception leagues.
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Justin Gage: seven targets per game. Really? If Vince Young could average more than one touchdown every other week, then this might actually mean something.
Jeremy Shockey's 10 targets per game represent a 50 percent increase over his opportunities earlier this season. You've got to love that if you own the former Hurricane.
Reason No. 125 why I love Jamal Lewis for the rest of the season: 4.5 targets per game recently means two fantasy points per week that nobody thought were coming.
Ryan Grant is in the perfect situation to succeed. You have to love the relatively high number of targets; very few teams run the screen as well as the Packers.
Drew Carter? I'll pass. He's still behind Steve Smith and has either Vinny Testaverde, David Carr or Matt Moore throwing to him. Somewhere, Drew Bledsoe is ecstatic that he retired.
If you haven't seen Tony Scheffler's touchdown grab from Week 12, find yourself a video of it. Scheffler was a sleeper last season but cooled after injuries forced him to miss games. He has great hands, though, and should be owned in all fantasy formats.
Ted Ginn Jr. is probably a couple of years away from fantasy relevance, but you have to love that he is developing good chemistry with rookie quarterback John Beck.
Bo Scaife shouldn't be owned, but if you get desperate for a tight end in any given week, you should be encouraged by his 7.3 targets and Vince Young's 61 percent completion rate. He's now a safe bet each week for four catches and 40 yards.
Justin McCareins' targets have increased only because of Laveranues Coles' injury.
Before the season, I wrote an article in which I told people to draft Chris Cooley before Vernon Davis. If I would have known that Jason Campbell would increase his targets as the season progressed, I would have pimped Cooley even more.
L.J. Smith, welcome back to the active roster, but unless you change your name to Brian Westbrook, you aren't cracking my starting lineup.
You almost have to wonder whether Justin Fargas would even be a blip on the fantasy radar if LaMont Jordan had a halfway decent chiropractor.
David Garrard might be playing decently, but there's no way you can start any of the Jacksonville wideouts until someone clearly establishes himself as a clear No. 1 receiver.
And now the remaining players with more than 25 targets this season:
| 2007 Receiver targets (the rest) | |||
| Player | Weeks 1-8 (Avg.) | Weeks 9-12 (Avg.) | Change |
| Roddy White, WR, Falcons | 6.60 | 9.00 | 2.4 |
| Sinorice Moss, WR, Giants | 1.60 | 4.00 | 2.4 |
| Jerry Porter, WR, Raiders | 5.10 | 7.50 | 2.4 |
| Santana Moss, WR, Redskins | 7.30 | 9.70 | 2.3 |
| Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions | 4.70 | 7.00 | 2.3 |
| Lee Evans, WR, Bills | 6.40 | 8.80 | 2.3 |
| Steve Smith, WR, Panthers | 8.70 | 11.00 | 2.3 |
| Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants | 8.10 | 10.30 | 2.2 |
| Keary Colbert, WR, Panthers | 5.90 | 8.00 | 2.1 |
| Mark Clayton, WR, Ravens | 4.70 | 6.80 | 2.0 |
| Brandon Stokley, WR, Broncos | 4.90 | 6.80 | 1.9 |
| Jesse Chatman, RB, Dolphins | 2.10 | 4.00 | 1.9 |
| Quinn Sypniewski, TE, Ravens | 3.40 | 5.30 | 1.8 |
| Shaun McDonald, WR, Lions | 6.40 | 8.30 | 1.8 |
| Kevin Jones, RB, Lions | 3.20 | 5.00 | 1.8 |
| Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys | 9.00 | 10.80 | 1.8 |
| Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos | 9.00 | 10.80 | 1.8 |
| Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts | 9.30 | 11.00 | 1.7 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers | 5.60 | 7.30 | 1.7 |
| Isaac Bruce, WR, Rams | 6.70 | 8.30 | 1.7 |
| Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts | 2.90 | 4.50 | 1.6 |
| Braylon Edwards, WR, Browns | 8.90 | 10.50 | 1.6 |
| Arnaz Battle, WR, 49ers | 7.00 | 8.50 | 1.5 |
| Roydell Williams, WR, Titans | 4.90 | 6.30 | 1.4 |
| J.J. Arrington, RB, Cardinals | 1.90 | 3.30 | 1.4 |
| Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles | 7.70 | 9.00 | 1.3 |
| Deion Branch, WR, Seahawks | 7.20 | 8.50 | 1.3 |
| Joe Jurevicius, WR, Browns | 4.70 | 6.00 | 1.3 |
| Warrick Dunn, RB, Falcons | 3.70 | 5.00 | 1.3 |
| Sidney Rice, WR, Vikings | 3.70 | 5.00 | 1.3 |
| Darrell Jackson, WR, 49ers | 6.50 | 7.80 | 1.3 |
| Donte' Stallworth, WR, Patriots | 4.80 | 6.00 | 1.3 |
| Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins | 3.30 | 4.50 | 1.2 |
| Leonard Weaver, RB, Seahawks | 2.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| Torry Holt, WR, Rams | 9.1 | 10.3 | 1.2 |
| Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs | 6.6 | 7.8 | 1.2 |
| Kevin Faulk, RB, Patriots | 3.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 |
| Reggie Bush, RB, Saints | 7.9 | 9.0 | 1.1 |
| Roy Williams, WR, Lions | 8.4 | 9.5 | 1.1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals | 11.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 |
| Wes Welker, WR, Patriots | 9.0 | 10.0 | 1.0 |
| Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers | 6.0 | 7.0 | 1.0 |
| Steven Jackson, RB, Rams | 4.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 |
| Reggie Williams, WR, Jaguars | 2.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| Zach Miller, TE, Raiders | 3.9 | 4.8 | 0.9 |
| Nate Washington, WR, Steelers | 2.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 |
| Amani Toomer, WR, Giants | 6.3 | 7.0 | 0.8 |
| Leonard Pope, TE, Cardinals | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| Jabar Gaffney, WR, Patriots | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| Daniel Graham, TE, Broncos | 2.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 |
| Kevin Curtis, WR, Eagles | 7.9 | 8.5 | 0.6 |
| Marcedes Lewis, TE, Jaguars | 3.6 | 4.0 | 0.4 |
| Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings | 3.3 | 3.7 | 0.4 |
| Alex Smith, TE, Buccaneers | 3.7 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| Joseph Addai, RB, Colts | 3.7 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| Selvin Young, RB, Broncos | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| Alge Crumpler, TE, Falcons | 4.7 | 5.0 | 0.3 |
| Ben Watson, TE, Patriots | 3.3 | 3.7 | 0.3 |
| Bernard Berrian, WR, Bears | 8.4 | 8.7 | 0.3 |
| David Patten, WR, Saints | 5.0 | 5.3 | 0.3 |
| Owen Daniels, TE, Texans | 6.1 | 6.3 | 0.2 |
| Hines Ward, WR, Steelers | 7.8 | 8.0 | 0.2 |
| Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers | 6.2 | 6.3 | 0.2 |
| Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles | 6.9 | 7.0 | 0.1 |
| David Martin, TE, Dolphins | 2.9 | 3.0 | 0.1 |
| Laurent Robinson, WR, Falcons | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| Robert Ferguson, WR, Vikings | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| Aaron Stecker, RB, Saints | 2.3 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers | 5.1 | 5.0 | -0.1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars | 3.4 | 3.3 | -0.2 |
| Adrian Peterson, RB, Bears | 3.9 | 3.7 | -0.2 |
| Jeff King, TE, Panthers | 6.0 | 5.8 | -0.3 |
| Jeff Webb, WR, Chiefs | 3.3 | 3.0 | -0.3 |
| Derek Hagan, WR, Dolphins | 2.6 | 2.3 | -0.3 |
| Marty Booker, WR, Dolphins | 6.6 | 6.3 | -0.3 |
| Michael Jenkins, WR, Falcons | 5.6 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| Antwaan Randle El, WR, Redskins | 5.6 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| Kevin Walter, WR, Texans | 7.8 | 7.3 | -0.4 |
| Bryant Johnson, WR, Cardinals | 5.0 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| Marion Barber III, RB, Cowboys | 3.3 | 2.8 | -0.5 |
| Leon Washington, RB, Jets | 2.9 | 2.3 | -0.5 |
| Donald Lee, TE, Packers | 4.6 | 4.0 | -0.6 |
| Ronald Curry, WR, Raiders | 6.9 | 6.3 | -0.6 |
| Muhsin Muhammad, WR, Bears | 5.6 | 5.0 | -0.6 |
| Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers | 8.1 | 7.5 | -0.6 |
| Justin Peelle, TE, Dolphins | 3.0 | 2.3 | -0.7 |
| Greg Olsen, TE, Bears | 5.0 | 4.3 | -0.7 |
| Chad Johnson, WR, Bengals | 10.4 | 9.8 | -0.7 |
| Mike Furrey, WR, Lions | 5.4 | 4.8 | -0.7 |
| Greg Jennings, WR, Packers | 7.2 | 6.5 | -0.7 |
| Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets | 8.4 | 7.7 | -0.7 |
| Eric Moulds, WR, Titans | 3.7 | 3.0 | -0.7 |
| Samie Parker, WR, Chiefs | 2.7 | 2.0 | -0.7 |
| Jason Avant, WR, Eagles | 2.7 | 2.0 | -0.7 |
| Todd Heap, TE, Ravens | 5.8 | 5.0 | -0.8 |
| DeShaun Foster, RB, Panthers | 2.6 | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| Joey Galloway, WR, Buccaneers | 6.9 | 6.0 | -0.9 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe, TE, Vikings | 3.1 | 2.3 | -0.9 |
| Dallas Clark, TE, Colts | 7.6 | 6.7 | -0.9 |
| Brian Leonard, RB, Rams | 3.3 | 2.3 | -0.9 |
| Donald Driver, WR, Packers | 8.7 | 7.8 | -1.0 |
| Lance Moore, WR, Saints | 3.7 | 2.8 | -1.0 |
| LenDale White, RB, Titans | 2.7 | 1.8 | -1.0 |
| Tony Gonzalez, TE, Chiefs | 8.9 | 7.8 | -1.1 |
| James Jones, WR, Packers | 6.1 | 5.0 | -1.1 |
| Joe Horn, WR, Falcons | 5.1 | 4.0 | -1.1 |
| DeAngelo Williams, WR, Panthers | 3.0 | 1.8 | -1.3 |
| Kris Wilson, TE, Chiefs | 3.6 | 2.3 | -1.3 |
| Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers | 4.4 | 3.0 | -1.4 |
| Randy McMichael, TE, Rams | 4.8 | 3.3 | -1.4 |
| Heath Miller, TE, Steelers | 4.4 | 3.0 | -1.4 |
| Willis McGahee, RB, Ravens | 4.0 | 2.5 | -1.5 |
| Brandon Jones, WR, Titans | 5.0 | 3.5 | -1.5 |
| Cedric Benson, RB, Bears | 2.9 | 1.3 | -1.5 |
| Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens | 11.6 | 10.0 | -1.6 |
| Dennis Northcutt, WR, Jaguars | 5.6 | 4.0 | -1.6 |
| Devery Henderson, WR, Saints | 3.6 | 2.0 | -1.6 |
| Roscoe Parrish, WR, Bills | 3.9 | 2.3 | -1.6 |
| Drew Bennett, WR, Rams | 5.5 | 3.7 | -1.8 |
| LaMont Jordan, RB, Raiders | 3.6 | 1.5 | -2.1 |
| Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys | 8.9 | 6.8 | -2.1 |
| Desmond Clark, TE, Bears | 5.1 | 3.0 | -2.1 |
| Andre Davis, WR, Texans | 6.5 | 4.3 | -2.2 |
| Ike Hilliard, WR, Buccaneers | 6.9 | 4.7 | -2.2 |
| Jerious Norwood, RB, Falcons | 3.3 | 1.0 | -2.3 |
| Eric Johnson, TE, Saints | 5.4 | 3.0 | -2.4 |
| Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks | 6.7 | 4.3 | -2.5 |
| Troy Williamson, WR, Vikings | 3.8 | 1.3 | -2.5 |
| Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs | 5.6 | 3.0 | -2.6 |
| Andre Johnson, WR, Texans | 10.0 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| Chris Chambers, WR, Dolphins | 10.1 | 7.0 | -3.1 |
| Patrick Crayton, WR, Cowboys | 6.1 | 3.0 | -3.1 |
| Bobby Wade, WR, Vikings | 6.1 | 2.8 | -3.4 |
| Demetrius Williams, WR, Ravens | 6.0 | 2.5 | -3.5 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Bengals | 12.6 | 8.3 | -4.3 |
| Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals | 11.3 | 6.8 | -4.5 |
| Laveranues Coles, WR, Jets | 8.6 | 2.0 | -6.6 |
Ken Daube is a fantasy football analyst for ESPN.com.
