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September 19, 2007, 8:28 PM

Playing with the Numbers: Top goal-line converters

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By Ken Daube
Special to ESPN.com
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There's no better place for fantasy production from a running back than inside the opponent's 5-yard line. Based on the scoring potential, I prefer to call that section of the playing field the super green zone. A running back's success inside the SGZ translates directly to his fantasy worthiness. The more successful they are, the less likely they are to lose those valuable carries to the dreaded touchdown vulture.

Therefore, in an attempt to quantify how likely your running backs are to keep getting those carries, here's a review of the 29 running backs who received the most carries inside the SGZ in 2006. Their stats within that area include their super green zone success percentage (SGZS), which is simply their percentage of carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line that were converted into touchdowns.

Marion Barber III, Cowboys: Barber is firmly entrenched as the Cowboys' goal-line back. His conversion of 44 percent of his SGZ carries into touchdowns may look impressive, but it's only 3 percent better than the average of the players profiled here. Barber's true value comes within the sheer volume of opportunities within the area. While Barber may only be statistically average converting these carries, his main source of competition, Julius Jones is absolutely dreadful in similar situations (13 percent success rate).

Larry Johnson, Chiefs: There are plenty of fantasy experts telling you that you should wait a few more weeks and try to buy LJ low after the tough part of his schedule is complete. I am going to suggest avoiding Johnson altogether. Last season, he converted 63 percent of his SGZ carries into scores. With the overall demise of the Chiefs' offensive line, I wouldn't be shocked to see that average plummet to below the league average. Additionally, his number of opportunities will decrease significantly as well. Get off the LJ bandwagon if you haven't already.

LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers: If you really need someone to tell you any reason why you should own LT, then you need to read a lot more than this column.

Willie Parker, Steelers:If someone would have asked you who you thought was more successful inside the opponent's 5-yard line, who would you have picked: Willie Parker or Deuce McAllister? The diminutive Parker won that contest hands down.

Deuce McAllister, Saints: If you are like me you are absolutely shocked at how bad Deuce was in the SGZ. I know many are counting on Deuce to be a solid No. 2 back, but with the Saints' offense stalling so far this season and McAllister's limited success in the SGZ, I could easily see McAllister being a fantasy bust.

Steven Jackson, Rams: Refer to comments on LaDainian Tomlinson.

Mike Bell, Broncos: Those of you Travis Henry owners would be wise to still keep your eyes on Bell. His SGZ success rate was very similar to Henry's and everyone and their mother knows that Mike Shanahan hates us.

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Joseph Addai, Colts: He's had two very nice games to start the season, but I still don't like him, and this is one of the key reasons why. He just isn't very efficient inside the 5. His 24 percent conversion rate was among the lowest of those players being evaluated. Unless he improves significantly, Peyton Manning will keep the ball in his own hands rather than handing off to Addai.

Jamal Lewis, Browns:Most of Jamal's fantasy value last season came from his proficiency inside the 5. The Ravens' offensive line wasn't as good in the running game as it was in pass protection last season, so expecting a decline now that Lewis is in Cleveland may be short-sighted.

Chester Taylor, Vikings: Anyone thinking that Taylor is a major impediment to Adrian Peterson becoming a clear No. 1 back in Minnesota should realize that Taylor was well below average in short-yardage situations. Peterson is not only the better option between the 20s, he's also the better option inside the 5.

Clinton Portis, Redskins: If you think that Portis' best chance at holding off a challenge from Ladell Betts is his nose for the end zone, take another look. Portis wasn't very good inside the 5. That being said, remember that Portis was injured for most of last season, so it may not be the best indicator of what is to come.

Frank Gore, 49ers: Gore's lone threat to losing carries inside the 5 is himself. Last season he lost carries to Michael Robinson after Gore coughed up one too many fumbles. If Gore protects the ball this season, his fantasy value has a good chance of actually increasing.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants: No comments are being made until we see him back in action.

Edgerrin James, Cardinals: James has never demonstrated above-average skills from inside the 5. If you expect him to improve this season based on an expectation of improvement for all the Cardinals, you should remember that James wasn't especially successful in Indianapolis in these same situations.

Corey Dillon, free agent: Dillon will likely become a short-yardage specialist if he is signed during the season.

Warrick Dunn, Falcons: Injured back, new coaching staff, new quarterback. What's not to like?

Rudi Johnson, Bengals: I don't know about you, but I was shocked to see how few carries Johnson received inside the 5. Johnson was as safe as you could get near the end of the first round, but his upside is severely limited by the lack of these opportunities.

Thomas Jones, Jets: Jones is a player whose reputation exceeded his actual stats. He may be one of the more productive all-around backs, but his success in the SGZ leaves something to be desired.

Dominic Rhodes, Raiders: Rhodes is currently suspended and will be buried behind LaMont Jordan when he returns.

Kevin Jones, Lions: Want to know why they brought in T.J. Duckett? It wasn't because of Jones' injury, but rather they needed someone to convert goal-line carries into touchdowns.

DeShaun Foster, Panthers: Fantasy owners everywhere long for the day when Foster and his measly 17 percent success rate are relegated to backup duty. It won't happen too soon so long as DeAngelo Williams continues to succeed at a 20 percent rate.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: New coach Cam Cameron has brought with him a much more running back friendly system to Miami. Brown was already better than average when it came to SGZ success, so view Brown as an excellent candidate to post significantly better numbers during the second half of the season than he will during the first half.

Ron Dayne, Texans: He still is Ron Dayne. The same running back who frustrated Giants fans for years with his less-than-adequate short-yardage skills.

Cedric Houston, free agent: He's no longer in the NFL and has no real chance at returning.

Travis Henry, Broncos: Playing with an offensive line miles behind the one he currently runs behind, Henry turned 50 percent of his carries inside the 5 into touchdowns. That rate should improve because the Broncos have one of the better units in the league.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: As I referenced in the 32 Questions column I wrote on the Jaguars, I just don't see MJD living up to expectations. He was great last season and statistically he should be given the same or more opportunities. However, Greg Jones is back with the team and that should cut into Jones-Drew's value.

Willis McGahee, Ravens: I'm starting to think I may have been wrong on McGahee. He's run with much more purpose and clarity this season and has stopped dancing behind the line of scrimmage. If he continues with the downhill running, McGahee should be rewarded with double-digit scores.

Mike Alstott, Buccaneers: Alstott is on injured reserve, and therefore, will not be a fantasy factor this season.

Kevan Barlow, free agent: Barlow was considered a perennial bust for failing to become the stud running back everyone imagined that he'd turn into after taking over for Garrison Hearst. Since he's a free agent, he shouldn't be on your fantasy radar. If a team signs him, be cognizant of his very good SGZS and realize he could easily become a vulture.

Ken Daube is a fantasy football expert for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him at KenDaube@talentedmrroto.com