Grand Theft Roto: Rules for buying low
You know the line that we (my fantasy brethren and I) feed you when a supposed superstar is slumping. You know it all too well. Maybe we'll dress it up a little bit, or maybe we'll just come out with it. Boiled down, it's two little words you see so often they have probably started to lose all meaning.
Buy low.
Martin Brodeur is better than this. Buy low.
Marian Hossa is bound to get things going. Send out a lowball offer.
Jaromir Jagr will eventually find chemistry with someone; see what his owner is willing to part with him for.
Jonathan Cheechoo is still going to play with Joe Thornton all season. You should carefully float an undervalued trade balloon in the general direction of the owner in your league who drafted, and is possibly underwhelmed by, Cheechoo.
Dress it up. Dress it down. You probably find yourself saying now and again, "Buy low? How do I buy the consensus best goalie in fantasy on draft day, low?"
Let's talk about it and see if we can't come up with a strategy that helps you "buy low."
There is no clear-cut answer as to how you trade for a player with less than what his value will be at the end of the season. There are many reasons why an owner may part with a player whom you perceive as being sold below value. We are dealing with many shades of gray for what I wish was a black-and-white discussion, so let's just explore some of the general rules you should follow when trying to "buy low."
1. Don't underestimate your trading partner: There is no bigger turnoff in the fantasy trading world than opening up your inbox to find a Kris Draper-for-Marian Hossa offer. Making that kind of offer is basically calling your trading partner stupid. Be realistic and assume the person you are trading with is just as into the game and astute as you are. The Draper-for-Hossa example is an immediate "delete" and won't even get your foot in the door. Remember, just like a door-to-door salesman, that's all you need to do. Open up the door and talk out a deal.
2. Look to the lower tier of the standings: It's more likely you'll find owners willing to trade with their underperforming top-end talent, if it's actually hurting them. If the owner in first place in your league is winning despite Ryan Whitney's mere six points, he or she is not likely to part with him. If the person in last place in your league is in the basement after drafting Marc-Andre Fleury and Martin Brodeur in net, that owner is more likely to shake things up. I promise you, you'll have more luck buying low with the teams in your league that are struggling out of the gate. I'm not saying they are ripe for the picking, just more likely to work out a deal.
3. Watch opponents' lineups: This takes a little work, but it's one of the best ways to know if an underperformer is available for trade. Simply click back to the last busy night in the league and look to see if your target was in your opponent's starting lineup. I know I've parked Maxim Afinogenov on the bench a couple times this season in one league. It even helps to remind your potential trading partner. "I noticed Afinogenov isn't in your starting lineup, do you think you could part with him for so-and-so?"
4. Brands sell for a reason: Markus Naslund, Patrik Elias, Shane Doan, Brendan Shanahan, Mike Modano. They all conjure up images of great hockey players in your mind but are not the fantasy assets they once were. There is a reason corporations spend billions of dollars a year on their brand. Consumers feel comfortable with a brand. A brand has a history of performance. Naslund's history is in the rearview mirror right now, but his name value can help get a deal done for a true superstar who is in a slump right now. I'm not saying you can simply offer up Naslund for Jaromir Jagr and have yourself a deal, but I'll bet you some owners will start thinking seriously about a Naslund and Modano for Jagr deal. That would be true highway robbery, but brand-name players can at least help you show you are serious about getting a trade done, even if they don't get the deal done alone.
5. Don't include a "Flash in the Pan": Why in the world would you trade Nik Antropov right now? No right-minded owner is going to give you a top-10 player for him, but he is performing like one. Ride the wave. Most owners are too savvy to fall for a flash-in-the-pan streak, and you won't get the right amount of value back for someone off to such a hot start. Antropov was most surely a free agent in all but the deepest of leagues, so rack up the points and enjoy while it lasts. Who knows, this revamped Leafs offense could be what he needs to finally succeed. Not likely, but at the end of the day "selling high" can be just as difficult as "buying low," so it's best to avoid doing both at the same time.
6. The ol' 2-for-1 is your friend: Pulling off a trade where you deal away two players in exchange for the best player in the deal is rare in fantasy. It's fairly common knowledge that you almost always want to be getting the best player in a trade. Buying a superstar low is one of the rare circumstances where you can actually manage this maneuver. If you are going to be pulling off a 2-for-1 while buying low, remember that you can go a little bit higher with what you are offering because you also get to plug a bench player or free-agent acquisition into your final numbers. If you have Tim Connolly rotting away on the bench because you have Joe Sakic and Brad Richards at center, make sure you calculate for the fact that you get to move Connolly up if you part with Sakic and Richards for Sidney Crosby.
7. Aim high and use misdirection: One of the tried-and-true methods for pulling off a deal is the play-action deal. You get your opponent thinking you are running the ball, while all along you are planning to pass. In other (nonfootball metaphor) words, you go after a player on your opponent's roster who is on a legitimate hot start and then "settle" for the actual player you are after. You offer Corey Perry in exchange for Pavel Datsyuk while talking the trade up like it's actually something worth considering for your opponent. When the other owner comes back with a rejection letter, you say fine, what about Perry for Thomas Vanek?
8. Make sure you really are buying low: This is important. Preseason predictions are still safe to stand by, but only to a certain extent. I, in no way, condone trading for Matt Carle right now. The supposed power-play quarterback for the Sharks is sharing power-play minutes on a team that doesn't really use the big point shot that much to begin with. No thank you. Would you really be buying low on Washington's Nicklas Backstrom? I don't think so. I think we were all wrong in the preseason and I think the Capitals are committed to bringing him along slowly. Just have a close look at the reasons why a player is in a "buy low" situation. There could be several red flags telling you to stay away.
9. Don't overcommit: Just because you are convinced that a player is a "buy low" target, doesn't mean you must acquire him. Float out an offer that you think may be fair and if it's rejected, back away. Don't get caught up in a counteroffer war where you may end up paying out-of-date market prices for a player who is slumping. There is no advantage to "buying at preseason prices."
10. Note a "buy low" mention: There is a reason whenever one of our fantasy writers here at ESPN mentions a player as a buy-low candidate. We do our research, have our opinions and spend more time than is healthy thinking about fantasy hockey. I may have sounded a bit jaded at the start of the article, but when we say it, we mean it. Make a note when we mention a buy-low opportunity in the Daily Box Score Blog or any other piece here on ESPN.com.
Sean Allen is a fantasy baseball and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.
