Allen: The quiet bunch
I have a confession to make. Just like the rest of my media brethren, I have been blinded by the light in the first few weeks of the NHL free-agent season. I have been glazing over all the little guys and focusing on where the big fish have been landing. I've been talking about the Rangers, Bruins, Kings, Flyers and everyone else who has made a splash in the free-agent or trade market. But what of the Wild, Panthers, Thrashers, Blue Jackets, Stars, Flames and all the other teams who have remained relatively quiet? Well, this column is for them.
Atlanta Thrashers -- The Thrashers sat on their laurels as Keith Tkachuk orchestrated his return to St. Louis, Greg de Vries walked away and even Eric Belanger and Jon Sim -- who had become key cogs in the machine late in the year -- left town. Todd White, Eric Perrin, Jesse Schultz and Alexandre Giroux are actually the highlight acquisitions of the Thrashers' offseason to date. Those are the highlights! It's safe to say there are some holes to fill in Atlanta's top six. The team has been pretty consistent about forming two lines out of Ilya Kovalchuk, Slava Kozlov and Marian Hossa; so who fills out the other three spots? Well, White is likely destined to center a line featuring Hossa and Kozlov. What choice do the Thrashers have at this point? The only prospect on the radar is Bryan Little, who certainly seems ready after finishing his second straight OHL season with more than 100 points for the Barrie Colts. The team signed his entry-level contract late last year and likely thinks he is ready for the NHL. If so, he'll complete the second line with Kovalchuk and Perrin. Overall, I am not painting a very pretty picture, am I?
As the offseason continues, watch closely to see what happens with Little. He is the catalyst in this whole thing. If he doesn't appear headed to the Thrashers, the team may opt to go with an Ottawa-style superstar line, featuring Kovalchuk, Kozlov and Hossa. This would significantly help all three players' values. However, if Little makes the jump to the NHL, we are likely looking at a more balanced offense in Atlanta, which would dilute everyone's fantasy value. I will go on record as saying that I like Little for fantasy as long as he is flying under the radar this preseason. If the hype machine gets ahold of him, he'll likely be overrated on draft day.
Buffalo Sabres -- You can't directly blame the Sabres for letting Daniel Briere and Chris Drury walk away. Let's face it, they both cashed in for a little more than they are actually worth and the Sabres got where they were last season by not overpaying for free agents and instead developing a cheap, talented roster. Why change now? Where there was a Briere, there is now a Tim Connolly. Where there was a Drury, there is now a Drew Stafford. Where there was even a Dainius Zubrus, there is now a Daniel Paille. Those are all quality replacements, none of whom played a full-time role in Buffalo last year.
Connolly is going to be the star of this team. It was clear in the postseason that his concussion symptoms are behind him. He is going to be the full-time center for Thomas Vanek, likely with Jason Pominville completing a top line that will be just as dangerous as last year's edition. Connolly should perform as a No. 1 fantasy center in this role. Derek Roy, Ales Kotalik and Maxim Afinogenov will make up the second line, which will also be fairly aggressive with the puck. Stafford is the kind of player who can replace Drury. He is hardworking and can play on both types of special teams. Paille is icing on the cake and can be part of a very capable third line with Stafford and Jochen Hecht.
Honestly, I think Sabres fans and fantasy owners can relax. This team remains in good hands.
Florida Panthers -- Now here is a team that has not addressed many needs outside of goaltending. Don't get me wrong, I love what Tomas Vokoun does for the Panthers, but they are still going to lose games; now it's going to be 3-2 instead of 5-2. Olli Jokinen and Nathan Horton still don't have any help on the left wing. Ville Peltonen and Rostislav Olesz were both disappointments in the role last season. The team signed Radek Dvorak, who netted 37 points last season. That's seven more than Olesz, but the same as Peltonen. Hardly an upgrade. Richard Zednik was also brought in, but is liable to be on injured reserve all season. That leaves the Panthers with the same slim pickings among forwards as they had last season.
Unfortunately, the slim pickings extend beyond their actual team and into the free-agent market. It looks like the Panthers are going to be forced to roll the dice on one of the available veterans who comes complete with an entire sack of issues. Can Eric Lindros go three weeks without breaking something? Is Michael Peca destined to be expensive and ineffective? Does anybody really believe Jason Allison when he says he is fit to play? Could the Panthers lure Peter Forsberg even in their wildest dreams? Jeff O'Neill who?
At the end of the day, Horton and Jokinen have talent, and there is a lot of fantasy value in the defensive corps and net for Florida, but beyond that … nothing.
Calgary Flames -- Roman Hamrlik was replaced by Adrian Aucoin and Cory Sarich (that's about par) and Owen Nolan was brought in for a trial run. That's about it. Not significant by any means, but why mess with a good thing? Daymond Langkow turned out to be the answer to the question "What was Jarome Iginla missing?" and after his emergence, the whole crew pretty much found their roles. New head coach Mike Keenan shouldn't be a factor as I'm pretty sure all he does is ask players what they think about a situation and then say "Yeah, that's what I thought too! What a coincidence! You do that … that thing, you just said …"
So what's changed? Nothing. Iginla remains a top player. Alex Tanguay is right there behind him. Langkow vaults into the top 75 somewhere this season, thanks to Iginla and Tanguay. Nolan, if healthy, slots in with Craig Conroy and Kristian Huselius (which really isn't that exciting, either). The Flames remain a decent team and the players' fantasy values remain consistent with last year.
Columbus Blue Jackets -- Letting Anson Carter walk is essentially addition by subtraction, but other than that the Blue Jackets have added nothing to their lineup. I suppose Jiri Novotny has to be considered, but we are talking about adding someone who has one season of fourth-line ice time. It's going to be the same bored forwards trying pointlessly to score goals only to watch the other team skate circles around their defense. Things are not looking pretty. Gilbert Brule might take a step forward this year, but he is not enough.
If your league counts plus/minus, stop right now and simply don't draft any Blue Jackets. I don't care how late Rick Nash is available. Any Jacket who has a legitimate chance of making some noise on the score sheet has an equal chance of being held out with a leg strain or a bad back, and while he is healthy he may end up so far in the minus zone you wonder if it's actually possible to be on the ice for that many goals against. The only constant on this team the last two seasons has been David Vyborny, but now we are talking about a deep-league No. 3 right winger.
I'll hold my tongue starting now as maybe some trades are on the horizon, and there are some decent goaltenders still available through free agency. Let's hope Columbus makes some serious moves; I'd hate to write off a whole team as a lost fantasy cause.
Dallas Stars -- It's the status quo in Dallas, where the team concentrated on keeping its core together. Last season was by no means disappointing and if Brenden Morrow and Mike Modano can each put in a full season, this team has its upgrade right there.
Morrow will be a nice acquisition fantasywise, as players tend to be discounted too much after a season in which they were overhyped. Look for him as a No. 2 left winger and you will be pleasantly rewarded. Any higher, and it's paying too much. There are several sleeper names from last year who could take a serious step forward, including Antti Miettinen, Joel Lundqvist and Jussi Jokinen.
Minnesota Wild -- The Wild chose to stand pat on offense with the only real significant moves being the signing of Sean Hill on D and trading away Manny Fernandez. However, Eric Belanger was inked after finding a groove last season as the center man for Marian Hossa and Slava Kozlov in Atlanta. He actually excelled in that role and that is why I am excited to see him landing between either Pavol Demitra and Marian Gaborik or between Brian Rolston and Pierre-Marc Bouchard. Either spot would give Belanger some serious upside. The top-line role likely goes to incumbent Mikko Koivu, but there is nothing wrong with skating alongside Rolston and Bouchard. Belanger could easily have deep-league value this season but will be ignored at most drafts.
I am, by the way, not concerned at all about Niklas Backstrom taking over the starting goaltender duties and I would take him as the eighth, maybe ninth goaltender off the board.
Nashville Predators -- "Fire sale! It's a fire sale!" Oh no, someone call the authorities, Nashville is dumping everyone with talent! That means all the Predators have left is J.P. Dumont, Steve Sullivan, Jason Arnott, Martin Erat, David Legwand, Alexander Radulov, Marek Zidlicky, Shea Weber, Chris Mason, Dan Hamhuis and Pekka Rinne! … Have I hit you over the head enough with my sarcasm?
Clearly, Nashville is not having a fire sale. The Preds traded away a goaltender who was blocking two very talented netminders from winning a starting job in the NHL and dealt two guys (who were in for a payday) to get back a first-round pick, having traded theirs away for Forsberg. I think that's smart asset management, especially when you consider that Scott Hartnell was one forward too many in their top six and that Kimmo Timonen was blocking either Greg Zanon or Kevin Klein, both of whom are NHL ready.
I was worried more names were on their way out, but it looks like the Preds have settled. This is still a very talented team, ready to compete with the Red Wings in the Central.
Phoenix Coyotes -- Mike York aside, the team hasn't made much noise this offseason. We all know it's not because Phoenix has a solid competitive team. In fact, it's quite the opposite, as the Coyotes are bottom dwellers and look to do no better this season. However, it's all part of a plan. Phoenix does have about a half-dozen young skaters who will be legitimate NHLers in a season or two, so why spend money now, when the Coyotes won't be able to compete anyway? At least that's the best logic I can come up with as to why a franchise would have only one player on its roster who had ever scored 30 goals in a season (Shane Doan).
Speaking of the young talent, Peter Mueller is a name to file away for draft day this year. The first-round pick has been signed to an entry-level contract and the Coyotes desperately need him to compete for the top-line center role. If he doesn't earn it in training camp, they are quite literally stuck with Mike York.
Phoenix has to have plans to sign one of the remaining free-agent goaltenders. It just has to! Mikael Tellqvist was fun last year, but Ed Belfour, David Aebischer and Robert Esche are all free agents and guys like Andrew Raycroft are available through trade. Oh, and who is that other free-agent goaltender? Oh yeah, Curtis Joseph! The Coyotes cannot, will not, can't possibly enter the season with Tellqvist as their No. 1, but whoever gets the job is not someone to target for your fantasy team.
Edmonton Oilers -- I saved Edmonton for last because it wasn't a lack of effort that caused the Oilers to make very few moves. They went after Briere, Drury, Ryan Smyth and even tried to poach Thomas Vanek. They did trade away their captain (Jason Smith) and a failed prospect (Joffrey Lupul) for a veteran (Geoff Sanderson) and a puck-moving defenseman (Joni Pitkanen). Now they have landed Sheldon Souray. The blue line is going to be just fine for Edmonton's power play, with Pitkanen and Souray taking care of business and firing shots; up front is where my concerns lie.
There are too many young guys battling for one, maybe two spots on the roster. The Oilers have a half-dozen potential superstars in the system waiting to break through; all they need is opportunity, but it's not going to be there. Only one youngster in the group of Robbie Schremp, Robert Nilsson, Marc-Antoine Pouliot, Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner and Ryan O'Marra can expect to make the Oilers because the team has guys like Marty Reasoner and Fernando Pisani blocking the way. I love players like Pisani and Reasoner as role players on teams that have bona fide superstars, but I am not a big fan of Reasoner and Pisani blocking potential superstars in the minors.
The Oilers are going to be a draft-day cloud of uncertainty. So much young talent, and nowhere to put it. You can bank on Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff as deep-league assets, and Souray and Pitkanen should be relevant in even shallow formats, but where do we go from there? Who has the upside? Hopefully this team sorts itself out in training camp because there are a lot of questions to answer.
Sean Allen is a fantasy hockey and baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at alla_rino@TalentedMrRoto.com.
