Offseason NHL Notebook: Oilers make play for Penner
Here we go again …
Oilers general manager Kevin Lowe has, for the second time in three weeks, stirred the pot by signing a restricted free agent to an offer sheet. This time, it's Dustin Penner of the Ducks being inked to a five-year, $21.25 million contract and Anaheim has until Thursday to either match the offer or lose him. It would be compensated with first-, second- and third-round draft picks from Edmonton.
Anaheim GM Brian Burke's issue with this is understandable. Penner is a fairly one-dimensional winger who uses his size in front of the net to chip in goals. Similar to Todd Bertuzzi in his heyday, but without Bertuzzi's added ability to set up plays. It's a lot of money; this starts us down the road to another lockout; Lowe is not going to be well-liked; blah, blah, blah … We play fantasy hockey. These issues don't concern us very much.
So after getting over the dollar amount, the more important issue that struck me is the impact on the Oilers if the Ducks decline to match the offer.
I'm not concerned about the draft picks going to Anaheim; the Oil have arguably the most stacked prospect list in the NHL. I'm concerned about the development of this plethora of young talent without anybody to guide the way. Future stars such as Robbie Schremp, Robert Nilsson, Ryan O'Marra, Marc-Antoine Pouliot and Sam Gagner need a strong veteran presence before I can start liking them for the 2007-08 fantasy season. They don't need a bang-and-crash winger with just over a year of NHL experience "showing them the ropes." These kids are going to be very, very good someday and -- no disrespect to Geoff Sanderson -- the team does not have someone who has been in the spotlight. No one who is used to the pressure of being "the go-to guy." In fact, Penner's 29-goal season would be the best of any career highs on the Oilers if not for Sanderson netting 46 when he was with the Hartford Whalers. Yeah, you heard me, Hartford Whalers.
I'm not saying Sanderson won't be able to impart some very wise advice to this core of young talent. But I do think the team would have been better served spending the money it is trying to use on Penner on, say, Peter Forsberg, a player who has been a full-fledged star in the league and can give guidance to these future superstars. Heck, Eric Lindros is available. He used to be as big a star as they get.
Unless the Oilers get that presence, I'm going to be fairly bearish on Schremp and crew come draft day.
If I had the opportunity, here's what I would say to Lowe about signing Penner, and I would say it in the tone of voice Stewie from "Family Guy" uses when asking Brian about "that novel he's been working on."
"Hey, Kev, what happened to the last breakout sophomore winger you acquired from the Anaheim Ducks? What's that, Kev? You'll have to speak up… I asked you what happened to Joffrey Lupul? How did he work out after he scored 28 goals in his second year with Anaheim and then you acquired him? Huh? Kev?"
So … last week, I promised a look at how the Western Conference goalie landscape is shaping up. So let's get down to business.
Chicago Blackhawks: If not for a lack of wins, Nikolai Khabibulin would have been a strong No. 2 goaltender in the fantasy realm last season. Guess what I expect this season? The Hawks look poised to win quite a few more games than last season. Jonathan Toews and now Patrick Kane look as though they will be given a legitimate shot at making the roster. Add these two budding stars to a healthy Martin Havlat (fingers crossed) and some new blood at center and you have a team that no longer will be part of the reason the Red Wings win the Presidents' Trophy so often. I like the Hawks, and I certainly wouldn't mind having Khabibulin as my No. 2 goalie in a deeper league. Patrick Lalime shouldn't steal too many starts. In fact, if Khabibulin were to be injured for an extended period of time, I see the Hawks turning to Corey Crawford, who doesn't have much left to prove in the AHL.
Columbus Blue Jackets: I want to believe in Pascal Leclaire this year -- I really do -- but there is no way I am buying what he or the Blue Jackets are selling. The team did nothing, literally nothing, to improve the league's worst defense. If anything, Adam Foote and defensively skilled Sergei Fedorov will both lose a step with age, making the overall defense a little bit worse. Leclaire was someone I had tracked through the minors because I thought he had "it": that intangible quality that makes a goaltender a star. But I am folding on Leclaire until he is on a team with a respectable defense. Fredrik Norrena, by the way, will not play very much if Leclaire is healthy. He was a stopgap last season while Leclaire was hurt. Honestly, just stay away from the Blue Jackets' goaltending in your fantasy league. I mean that so much, that in a 16-team league -- meaning there aren't enough teams in the NHL for everyone to have two starting goalies -- I would rather have some other NHL team's backup as my fantasy No. 2 than be forced to play the Columbus starter.
Detroit Red Wings: Dominik Hasek represents a very wise investment for your fantasy team as long as you hedge your bets somewhere. If you are drafting a 42-year-old goaltender with a history of back and groin troubles, you need to back him up with Chris Osgood. Osgood should be on a fantasy roster from Day 1 all the way through April. No other player will see such a positive value shift in fantasy than Osgood will if Hasek goes down. Allow me to repeat myself, it's just that important: If you draft Hasek as your No. 1 goaltender, you must make sure you have Osgood on your roster and you must have him there all year, just in case. And if you are a jerk -- like me -- you take Osgood in your draft before the Hasek owner can get to him, then hold him for ransom.
Nashville Predators: There are two reasons I don't view Chris Mason among the top tier of No. 1 fantasy goalie options. The first is his inconsistency over the years. He is a journeyman. Make no mistake about it. Mason is 31 years old and has spent the past 10 years trying to make the NHL before breaking in as a solid backup for Nashville for the past three seasons. Before that, he had had only one winning season since 1998-99. Yes, his numbers have been stellar while backing up Tomas Vokoun, but he never has been "the starter" for an entire season. The second reason I don't view Mason among the elite is Pekka Rinne. Rinne has the No. 1 goaltender stuff fantasy owners salivate over and, although young at 24, is poised to win the backup job to start the season. If Mason struggles at all, his leash might not be very long as the Predators front office will want to see what Rinne can do. Mason would be one of the last goaltenders I would accept as my No. 1 in fantasy, i.e., 14 other goalies will have to be off the board before I take him.
St. Louis Blues: Are the Blues a better team this year? They've made improvements. Does that make Manny Legace a legitimate No. 2 fantasy goalie? No, not really. I'm sorry, but this team just can't excite me yet. Erik Johnson is going to have an impact, and it will be significant, but it won't be enough. The defense still will be subpar and St. Louis won't win enough games. I'm not saying Legace won't be useful as your second goalie. I'm saying there are other options that are equal to Legace but have upside. I don't see any real chance for the Blues and Legace to exceed expectations this season. Jason Bacashihua or newly acquired Hannu Toivonen will back up Legace as Marek Schwartz is still at least a season away.
Calgary Flames: Miikka Kiprusoff is still among the top five fantasy goalies you want. But I'll reiterate a point I made last week: The group at the top is pretty tight this season.
Colorado Avalanche: Remember last year at this time, when Evgeni Nabokov and Vesa Toskala devalued each other so much because of an expected time-share and they just tumbled in drafts? Well, Peter Budaj and Jose Theodore this season are the poor man's version of the Sharks duo from last year. Budaj had the better numbers in the previous campaign, but Theodore is making the big bucks. The question is how do we draft them when, clearly, the winner of the starting job has No. 1 goaltender upside? I'm advising that you avoid Budaj altogether and take a late shot at Theodore. With Theodore's salary and his tremendous potential, I just can't see the Avs going into the season with Theodore as the backup. The organization's talent evaluators have proved themselves over the years, and I doubt the the move for Theodore would have been made without confidence that he could regain his award-winning form. Theodore will get another shot to take the job this year, and I think -- now more than a year removed from the media frenzy of Montreal -- that he can be a fantasy asset this season. Besides, drafting Budaj would mean spending on a No. 2 goaltender with downside to his value in the middle rounds, and that's never a good idea. If you aren't trying to keep two studs in net active on your roster, your second goaltender can wait (especially this year).
Edmonton Oilers: Dwayne Roloson is a goaltender I am flat-out avoiding this year. I've discussed some of the Oilers' issues on offense at the top of this column, but the bottom line is that I expect the team to dwell near the bottom of the standings for the whole season. Mathieu Garon isn't much of a threat to Roloson's playing time, but even an 80/20 split of the goaltending duties might not yield 25 wins this season for either goaltender. This is a growing year for the Oil, and you don't want to depend on their goalie for fantasy stats. The 2008-09 season? Well, that could be a different story, but stay away from Roloson this year.
Minnesota Wild: Niklas Backstrom maintained an elite-level save percentage in Finland before coming to the NHL last season. His league-leading goals-against average and save percentage last season make him a very attractive option for your fantasy team, but I'm saving my praises. Just because the Wild feel Backstrom can handle No. 1 goaltending duties in the NHL doesn't necessarily mean you want his stats while he gets used to the role. He is not as quick as some of the other goaltenders out there, and Minnesota's attention to defense was definitely a factor in his spectacular numbers. However, he is still in Minnesota and if anything, the Wild's defense improved this offseason. I'll take Backstrom in the top 10 goalies, but I'll be taking nine others first. Josh Harding will be worth keeping an eye on, as well. He'll be performing full-time backup duties in the NHL for the first time, and he possesses the stuff of a future No. 1 goaltender. He's worth a late draft slot in deep leagues with a big bench.
Vancouver Canucks: Two words: Roberto Luongo. Three more words: second goalie drafted. Five additional words: probably in the first round.
Anaheim Ducks: No longer threatened by a time-share, Jean-Sebastien Giguere should be a strong No. 1 fantasy goaltender this year. He likely will be drafted as such, too. Giggy should be a cost-effective pick, as well, as a lot of fantasy owners will take Ryan Miller or Henrik Lundqvist ahead of him even though Giguere's numbers should top theirs. Ilya Bryzgalov is an injury handcuff I would take in any medium-size league if I took Giguere as my No. 1 netminder.
Dallas Stars: Marty Turco is clockwork. He might have some competition to be in the top five with the emergence of a couple of other guys, but at the end of the day, you know his numbers will be there. You can set your watch by him.
Los Angeles Kings: The Kings have to be looking for someone else to compete for their starting job. If they don't sign another veteran, Dan Cloutier is your incumbent in La La Land. He does not have the poise or experience to be worth a shot on your fantasy team. The offense and defense are there in Los Angeles, but the team needs a dependable guy in net. Ed Belfour and Curtis Joseph have shown they can still play and are still available. I'm hopeful that the Kings will make a move so we can find some fantasy value on what should be a good team.
Phoenix Coyotes: David Aebischer should have little trouble prying the job from Mikael Tellqvist, but I still wouldn't touch him with a 10-foot pole in fantasy. The Coyotes have a lot of work to do before they can start winning games, or even give their goaltender a chance when the puck is in their own zone. Stay away.
San Jose Sharks: By the process of subtracting Toskala as competition for minutes, Nabokov leaps into the goaltender top-10. He'll be No. 1 on a winning team for which he proved he could do the job last season. If Nabokov is the seventh or eighth goaltender in your draft, I'd say that sounds about right.
Sean Allen is a fantasy hockey and baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at alla_rino@TalentedMrRoto.com.
