Offseason Notebook: Still free agents
The clock is quickly ticking towards training camp, and there are still some high-profile guys without a home.
I will give you my best-case and worst-case scenario for their fantasy value, and then discuss what's most likely going to happen for each.
Best-Case Fantasy Scenario: I still say Forsberg should come to Western Canada. The two places I would most like to see him end up are Edmonton or Vancouver. Regardless of where he goes, Forsberg is someone to draft in fantasy hockey; expect a ceiling of 50 games played. I like him the most with Edmonton because it would give quite a few players value. The Oilers are lacking veteran leadership on a team that is damn near overflowing with young superstar talent. I want Rob Schremp, Andrew Cogliano and Robert Nilsson learning from a Forsberg, not a Geoff Sanderson or an Ethan Moreau. The way Forsberg creates room on the ice would significantly upgrade the value I am expecting from the young phenoms in Edmonton that I am currently a bit bearish on. With Vancouver, I am thinking about Forsberg finally getting to play in the NHL with childhood friend Markus Naslund. The two grew up in Sweden playing hockey together, and no one would argue that Naslund needs a kick in the pants offensively. Imagine the top two lines for the Canucks both having chemistry among the players that goes back 20-plus years. Considering the Sedins are also from Sweden, I could see Ikea sponsoring the team.
Worst-Case Fantasy Scenario: There will always be the threat that Forsberg decides to take his limp ankle and go back to play in Sweden. He has mused several times over the years about returning to play at home. As much as he can be a real yo-yo on fantasy owner's emotions, Forsberg has won championships in the fantasy realm almost single-handedly. His departure would be a real letdown.
Most Likely Scenario: Reports have speculated that Forsberg is working towards one last big contract, which implies it could be several years. The Red Wings and Avalanche are likely going to fight over who gets him. I still think Forsberg will have the same value almost anywhere, but I'd hate to see him go somewhere that would push a good young player like Wojtek Wolski or Mikael Samuelsson out of the top six.
Best-Case Fantasy Scenario: Hopefully, Amonte lands on a team that will use him as a winger for a young playmaker. I still think Amonte has a 20-goal season left in him if he has the right linemates and isn't relegated to a checking role like he was with Calgary. His sniping hands aren't what they used to be, but if someone can get Amonte inspired, he still has the vision it takes to know when to shoot. Columbus would be a great home for Amonte and would give him some fantasy upside. There won't be much room in the top six, as the Blue Jackets have some young players they hope to place in the open wing spots, but Jiri Novotny should win a third- or fourth-line center role. Novotny has some untapped playmaking skills, and at just 24 years of age might be a good match for the veteran Amonte. Pair those two with the defensively responsible Jason Chimera, and I think you have the perfect third line in Columbus.
Worst-Case Fantasy Scenario: He re-signs with Calgary or anyone else who would use him as a checker. In that case, he means nothing to us.
Most Likely Scenario: I could see Amonte retiring, but there are about a half-dozen teams that could sign him to a cheap one-year contract to be a checking-line player. I don't know if many NHL teams are as optimistic as I am about Amonte's remaining offensive potential.
Best-Case Fantasy Scenario: Cross your fingers that we see O'Neill land on a team that has several very talented forwards, but also has a couple holes in the top six; think Atlanta, Ottawa or Tampa Bay. With the Leafs, you were either playing on Mats Sundin's wing or you weren't. In a place like Atlanta, O'Neill could compete for the wing spot opposite Ilya Kovalchuk, or he could play center for the Marian Hossa-Slava Kozlov line. In Tampa or Ottawa, he could slot in anywhere in the top six that both teams would like to spread their superstars out among.
Worst-Case Fantasy Scenario: Another one-trick pony would be the worst place for O'Neill to end up. In Carolina, you play with Eric Staal or you don't. In Florida, you are on Olli Jokinen's line, or you aren't. In Phoenix, it's the Shane Doan-Peter Mueller line or bust. Those kinds of homes are no good for O'Neill because he needs to find chemistry to be effective but would only have one chance.
Most Likely Scenario: Unfortunately, teams with one premiere spot available are the ones still shopping. The odds are that O'Neill will wind up somewhere we can speculate on his "potential" fantasy value, but in the end he fizzles out as a role player.
Best-Case Fantasy Scenario: Retire, Big E. Just retire.
Worst-Case Fantasy Scenario: If Lindros signs with a team that has some room among the top-six forwards, we'll have to go through the same dreaded motions where we can't completely write him off but can't endorse him, either. When he was healthy with Dallas last season, he was contributing, but as soon as health issues starting kicking in, he quickly became useless. He isn't nearly the scoring threat he used to be, but Lindros still brings a decent mix of PIMs and points that can be valuable in deeper fantasy leagues. The problem is that he brings it for a week at a time. My biggest problem is that if he plays, I'm going to have to take a stand on him fantasy-wise, and I just know he'll do the opposite of what I say to spite me. If I say, give him a chance, he can't possibly be this injury-prone -- he'll spend 95 percent of the season on injured reserve. If I say forget him, he'll go out and play a point-per-game season with a ton of points. I don't want to put myself or any fantasy owner through that stress this season.
Most Likely Scenario: Most likely, we'll have to put up with another roller-coaster ride with Lindros. He'll sign somewhere and play hurt for more than half the season, but he'll produce when healthy. That's still someone you don't want to put on your fantasy squad. In the back of mind, though, I can't shake what Ken Griffey Jr. has done this season in baseball. Their stories have been similar, and look at the resurgence Griffey had this season. Man, I hope Lindros retires.
Best-Case Fantasy Scenario: Peca's potential for 120 penalty minutes and 30-45 points makes him a fantasy asset if he finds the right location. There has to be ice time for him though. He needs to sign on a team that will garner him second-line ice time and protect his plus/minus. The Montreal Canadiens would be near the top of my list. The Habs need some grit in their top six and Peca could actually put in a higher point total than he would project anywhere else. Tomas Plekanec hasn't cemented the second-line center role, by any means.
Worst-Case Fantasy Scenario: If Peca has third- or fourth-line duties, he'll be almost useless to fantasy players. There just isn't enough ice time there and coaches don't tend to put up with penalties from their defensive-minded players. If Peca were to play for the New York Rangers, he'd be stuck behind Scott Gomez and Chris Drury at center and not get enough ice time to put up the numbers we need to see in fantasy.
Most Likely Scenario: As luck would have it (he said sarcastically), Peca is pretty close to signing with the Blueshirts. If that were the case, only an injury to Gomez or Drury would make him relevant to fantasy.
Best-Case Fantasy Scenario: Allison needs to play on a winning team where they can put up with his lack of speed. He also needs some wingers with a nose for the net to be successful. Minnesota and New Jersey would be my dream spot for him this season. In Jersey, they are depending on Dainius Zubrus to stay healthy and will use a trial-by-fire approach with Travis Zajac to fill out their center needs. Allison would be perfect for the second-line role (hoping Zubrus stays healthy). Whatever combination of wingers Brian Gionta, Zach Parise, Jamie Langenbrunner and Patrik Elias fills out that second line, it's going to be good and would be the perfect home for Allison (especially with the defensive minded Langenbrunner compensating for Allison's inattentiveness on defense). I only mention Minnesota because Mikko Koivu is far from proven as a top-line center man and Eric Belanger is risky (despite how much I like him for the role). There is also some history as Brian Rolston played with Allison in his heyday on the late 1990s and early 2000s Bruins team.
Worst-Case Fantasy Scenario: I don't like the idea of Allison playing anywhere but on an established winning team that happens to have a center spot open. Sure he has fantasy potential in Columbus, Edmonton, St. Louis or Phoenix, but already a defensive liability, his plus/minus will be atrocious on those teams. Bottom line: Allison still has something to contribute, so I guess the worst case scenario is that no one takes a chance on him and he doesn't play for the second straight season and fourth of the last five.
Most Likely Scenario: Again, my best-case scenario is far-fetched at this point and Allison will most likely have to settle for a lowly Columbus or Phoenix job. He'll have potential there, especially in leagues without plus/minus. The other upside to such a situation, would be that Allison would become an interesting midseason target in fantasy leagues. If he produces this year on a losing team he could be dealt to a contender because his contract should be palatable.
Best-Case Fantasy Scenario: There is only one answer to this: Vancouver. Carter had a huge fantasy impact playing with the Sedin Twins. Which is a role that remains open since his departure.
Worst-Case Fantasy Scenario: Another year on a losing squad. Carter's lack of drive and flaws in his game were highlighted with the Blue Jackets and Hurricanes last season. Another tour of duty with them, or any other team destined to lose games would kill his fantasy value.
Most Likely Scenario: Carter will probably price himself out of any role that would translate to fantasy goodness. I fully anticipate him to be a player we can ignore in our drafts.
Best Case Fantasy Scenario: There is only one reason we like Markov in fantasy: plus/minus. Basically, he'll be quite useful if he signs in Detroit, Ottawa or Buffalo.
Worst Case Fantasy Scenario: Any team that doesn't score many more goals than they let in will render Markov useless.
Most Likely Scenario: It already sounds like he is going back to Russia to play.
Best Case Fantasy Scenario: There are only four teams without a clear picture of how their goaltending will shake out; Los Angeles, Columbus, Tampa Bay and Phoenix. Phoenix has taken themselves off the market by loading up on low-price, high-upside 'tenders. Tampa will likely add a rookie to their rotation from last year and hope for the best. That leaves the Kings and Blue Jackets as the only destination for Joseph and Belfour where they have a chance at being the team's No. 1 goalie. Columbus has Pascal Leclaire -- whom they want to take the next step -- and isn't an ideal home for a fantasy goaltender anyway. Now, the Los Angeles Kings are the perfect place for one of these veterans to step in, win the starting job and have a very good fantasy season. Belfour and Joseph showed us last year that they still have the ability to be good goalies in the NHL and if their situations were better they would have been worth using in fantasy. The Kings are a much-improved squad with two scoring lines and arguably the best top-six defensemen in the NHL. Dan Cloutier is the only thing stopping them from being a playoff lock. If either Belfour or Joseph signs in L.A., they become a strong No. 2 fantasy goaltender with the potential to put up numbers like they are a middle-tier No. 1 goaltender.
Worst Case Fantasy Scenario: Basically, the only upside Belfour or Joseph have outside of the four teams I mentioned, would come with injuries.
Most Likely Scenario: It appears as though Belfour is close to signing a deal in Europe. That would leave Joseph as the Kings best hope, so let's hope he signs there. … I'd be remiss not to at least mention Robert Esche in this column. As I pointed out, only Los Angeles has a good spot open for a goaltender to have potential in fantasy, and I still have nightmares about the last Philly castoff the Kings tried (Roman Cechmanek). So I try to ignore Esche.
Sean Allen is a fantasy hockey and baseball analyst for ESPN.com and TalentedMrRoto.com. He can be reached at alla_rino@TalentedMrRoto.com.
