February 9, 2009, 2:40 PM

Open Ice: Goalies better than the Average Joe

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Allen By Sean Allen
Special to ESPN.com
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A couple of weeks ago, I experimented with some pseudo-sabermetrics for hockey, by finding the average fantasy player in a standard ESPN league (Average Joe) and comparing each player's stats to that average. Well, the number juggling (as simplistic as it was) was quite well received, so with the feedback I received in hand, it's time to tackle goalies.

The theory this time is to take every goaltender who stepped on the ice through Jan. 31 (my cut-off date) and find out his share of the total minutes played by goalies to that date (89,539). Then we can compare how many shots, saves and goals he has compared to his share of the total minutes and find any discrepancies (value!).

So this first chart is the list of 82 goaltenders who stepped on an NHL surface from the start of the season through Jan. 31. The last column is each player's percentage of the total minutes.

Now, here is the same list of goaltenders with some different statistics. Included here are each goaltender's percentage of the total shots, saves and goals allowed through Jan. 31. For those curious, there have been 44,252 shots, 40,170 savse and 4,082 goals for the purpose of this study.

From here, it's simple subtraction. We can see the percentage of total minutes a goalie is playing in the first table. So we can say, all things considered even, that percentage should be the same as the pecentage of total shots, saves and goals allowed for that goaltender. But as we know, all things are not even, as some goalies face more than their fair share of shots, while others allow more than their fair share of goals.

The third table illustrates the point nicely by showing the difference between a goalie's percentage of the total minutes and his percentage of the total shots, saves and goals allowed.

Again, this stat is a goalie's performance in shots, saves and goals allowed compared to the percentage of total minutes he plays. This way, we can better gauge fantasy value for each goaltender, as we are comparing a goalie to his minutes played before we compare him to the others. This does allow for goaltenders who have played very few minutes to rank well, but you and I both are aware that Tuukka Rask and Simeon Varlamov won't be backstopping their respective teams this season, so just ignore them.

And to make this list a little more aesthetically pleasing, we sorted the goalies from best to worst when it comes to share of goals allowed this season.

We see from this table that Steve Mason, Niklas Backstrom and Tim Thomas have been a cut above the rest when it comes to stopping more goals than expected. In other news, the sky is blue and the grass is green. Looking a little deeper, it's good to see Evgeni Nabokov make the top 10, despite a ho-hum year for his ratios. We have been singing the praises of Scott Clemmensen and Jonas Hiller for some time now, as both are playing excellent net. Cam Ward is a surprise to finish out the top 10. He faces slightly above expected shots on goal, too, making him a quiet addition for remainder of the season.

Both Chicago goaltenders are among our leaders here, but it's interesting to note that Nikolai Khabibulin faces fewer shots than expected, while Cristobal Huet faces more. Pekka Rinne ranks 14th and Dan Ellis ranks 67th, yet Rinne plays more than 400 minutes less than Ellis. Pick a side, Nashville! We're at war.

Brian Elliot and Alex Auld finish very close in this measurement, but it's a question of "What have you done for me lately?" in Ottawa.

Some other battles of late on this scale: Ty Conklin destroys Chris Osgood, Antero Niittymaki is better than Martin Biron and Andrew Raycroft tops Peter Budaj (although both are on the negative side).

Looking toward the bottom of the list, you might believe you should stay completely away from any goaltenders in places like Atlanta, Toronto, Dallas or even Washington. But that is why we need one more table (I know, I'm getting exhausted with them, too).

Our final breakdown with this percentage of minutes statistic is to look at what each goaltender did over October and November, and then compare it to what the goalie did in December and January. It's first half versus second half, to show any decline or improvement. This is sorted by the goaltenders who had the "best" change in their numbers from the first two months to the second two months.

Ah ha! Here we find some really interesting trends. Although Miikka Kiprusoff and Marty Turco both rank on the negative side for goals allowed on the season, they have improved their performances more than any other netminders over the past two months. Both goalies, especially Turco, can be had for a little less than they are worth.

We see here that Dan Ellis has improved lately, but not nearly as much as Pekka Rinne, who pulls up in third after Turco and Kipper.

Jose Theodore's value of late shines through, as only 11 other goalies have performed better over the past two months.

Martin Biron shows some improvement here, but going from really terrible to terrible isn't going to help you to a fantasy title. Get on the Niitty train here!

Perhaps the most notable difference here is the fact that Manny Fernandez has improved his performance over the past two months by leaps and bounds, while Tim Thomas has plummeted. It is a relative comparison, of course, as Thomas was doing so well over the first two months that a "plummet" still keeps him among the league leaders. Still, with Fernandez healthy again, the two might continue to head in opposite directions.

I pegged Henrik Lundqvist as a trade target based on his post-All-Star splits of recent years, but looking at the drop-off in his play this season, I'm backing away from that statement.

Overall, use these tables to assess your goalie situation and try to improve. If your save percentage is struggling, make sure you are targeting a goalie who sees a higher percentage of shots than he should.

If it's wins you want, I can provide a detailed analysis of how to target them. Or, simply put, if you want wins, just trade for Nabokov.

Sean Allen is a fantasy baseball and hockey analyst for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.