March 7, 2008, 6:34 PM
The Good, The Bad, The Ugly: Kobalt Tools 500
Editor's Note: Mark Garrow provides driver trends for Sunday's Kobalt Tools 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
• Andretti must race his way into Sunday based on his qualifying effort, since his team was outside the top 35 in owners' points in 2007.
• In 22 starts here, Andretti has an average finish of 24.7 with one pole position and four Did Not Finish (DNFs) while leading 45 laps.
• Benson must race his way into Sunday based on his qualifying effort, since his team was outside the top 35 in owners' points in 2007.
• This is the same Camry the team ran last weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with Mike Skinner. Skinner finished 30th.
• Benson has made 16 Cup Series starts at the 1.54-mile speedway during his career and has scored four top-10 and six top-15 finishes in Cup Series competition.
• If you have the guts of a cat burglar, this is a guy you could think about taking, a "flyer" on this week. He marries up to this track really well and always has.
• In addition to Biffle's Cup stats at Atlanta (five top-10s, two top-5s), he also has one Nationwide Series win and has only finished outside of the top 10 one time in a Nationwide race at the 1.54-mile oval.
• During the 2006 spring race in Atlanta, Biffle led 128 laps, but ran out of fuel with only one lap remaining, leaving him with a 16th-place finish.
• The "Bif" is looking good to me and I feel he's a great value. He's probably a lock to run top-10 at Atlanta and could run in the top five just like Vegas. This guy should also be a stud at Bristol.
• Blaney counts Atlanta among his favorite tracks to race on, and he has made 16 Cup Series starts at the 1.54-mile speedway during his career. Blaney has started as high as third (2001) and finished as high as eighth (2003, 2005). He has scored two top-10 finishes in Cup Series competition at the speedway and has qualified inside the top 10 six times.
• I'm really disappointed about the way Blaney has opened the season. I just thought this team would be better with Blaney and crew chief Tommy Baldwin past the getting to know you stage. He was 26th at Las Vegas and it was ugly. I will say this however, keep an eye on the way Blaney qualifies at Atlanta. This is one of his best tracks and he's had some strong runs on the 1.5-mile track although the stat sheet might not show it. He's on my bench and stays there at least another week.
• Built new for 2008, this is the same DIRECTV Chevrolet Impala SS Bowyer raced to a 19th-place finish two races ago in California.
• In his two most recent starts at AMS, Bowyer has consecutive sixth-place finishes.
• Bowyer has an 18.8 starting average and a solid 16th-place average finish. He also recorded a sixth-place finish in last March's NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Atlanta. In three events at AMS in NASCAR's top-two divisions last season, Bowyer finished sixth in all three.
• One of the biggest disappointments of the year so far. I just talked to him this morning and he feels the team is close to getting it turned around. But clearly, teammates Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick should be running better and more consistently. In a salary cap game, you don't buy Bowyer yet and if you have him probably not a bad idea to unload him for the time being. In the draft game, you might have to bench him.
Jeff Burton
• In 27 starts at AMS, Burton boasts seven top-five and 12 top-10 finishes.
• According to NASCAR's loop data statistics, Burton is the fourth-best driver in the Average Running Position (ARP) category. His ARP of the past six races at the 1.54-mile oval is 11.359.
• Burton is the sixth-best driver when it comes to quantity of laps driven in the top 15. Out of 1,954 total laps, the South Boston, Va. native completed 1,533 laps while running in the top 15 (78.5 percent). Additionally, he is eighth in the Driver Rating category (92.4 percent).
• Over the season's first three races, Burton has earned one top-five and one top-10 finish. He currently holds a 22.7 starting average coupled with a 10th-place finishing average and has completed 717 of 717 total laps (100 percent) to date. Additionally, Burton has led all three events for a total of 21 laps.
• Burton is getting in position to crank out the 8th-12th place finishes that put him into the Chase last year. He's going to be good just about every week, but never great. Probable finish at Atlanta this weekend from fourth to 10th. He was top-five in both races last year and will also run the Nationwide race and extra track time will help.
• At AMS, Busch has one win, four top-10s, and an average finish of 21.3. He finished eighth in October and has led six of 14 races for 280 laps.
• He's not running as good or as consistent as teammate Ryan Newman. Still top-10 capable at Atlanta, but didn't look very good at Vegas even before he wrecked. This Busch is a big question mark to me.
• Busch has seven previous Sprint Cup Series starts at Atlanta and has led in two of those starts for a total of 81 laps. His average finish here is 22.1.
• Busch ran his first laps in his new No. 18 M&M's car with Joe Gibbs Racing when the team tested at AMS in October 2007; Busch had the overall fastest lap of the two-day test with a lap of 29.632 seconds and a speed of 187.095 mph.
• I think Kyle Busch is a must have this week in any game your playing. This team is still feeling around looking for what he really likes, but they are getting close. He's one of my five picks to win the Kobalt Tools 500. He was the "badest" and the fastest in the Atlanta test last year. If he's that good again everyone else could be running for second place.
• Being outside the top 35 in owner points, Carpentier will have to qualify on time. This will be Carpentier's first attempt at qualifying at AMS.
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
• In 17 races at AMS, Earnhardt has recorded one victory, one pole position, seven top-5 finishes and nine top-10s. His win was March 14, 2004, when he started in the seventh position, and his pole was Nov. 18, 2001, when he finished seventh.
• Tony Eury Jr. and the No. 88 team will use Chassis No. 88-483, which is the car that Earnhardt tested in October at Atlanta Motor Speedway. That should be beneficial to understanding the track.
• I think Dale Earnhardt, Jr. can run in the top five again this weekend. That's based on his run last week at Las Vegas and the fact this is one of his best racetracks. I saw Junior's car locked on the white line in the first Vegas practice last week and I immediately thought he's going to be good. If I see the same thing in the first session at Atlanta, watch out he might have a shot to win. Reason being, if he can run the bottom he'll be doubly tough because we all know he's one of the best "riding the rim" at Atlanta on the outside.
• Edwards is looking forward to making it three in a row in Atlanta after back-to-back winning weekends at California and Las Vegas, but he'll have to do it without suspended crew chief Bob Osbourne.
• Edwards will make his eighth Cup start at Atlanta this weekend. In his previous seven starts, Edwards has achieved two wins, four top-5s and six top-10 finishes.
• Losing the points lead before even getting to the track was a downer, but losing crew chief Bob Osbourne is the biggest loss of all. Edwards-Osbourne is a tough combination to beat, but breaking that up puts the #99 behind the eight-ball. Robbie Reiser will help call the shots on Sunday and as a former Matt Kenseth crew chief he's got the brains and the guts to make the tough call. Can the 99 win three in a row? I doubt it, but he'll be no worse than top-10 and could go top-5 again.
• Elliott must make Sunday's field based on qualifying as his team finished outside the top 35 in owners' points last year.
• In 58 starts here, Elliott has 19 top-10s, 13 top-5s, five wins and an average finish of 18th with 18 DNFs. Elliott has led 1,024 laps here.
• If he makes the race, he can run in the top 30, maybe top 25.
• Franchitti is making his first-ever NASCAR Cup Series and Nationwide Series starts at AMS this weekend.
• A top-25 finish for this guy, at this point in his NASCAR career would be a miracle. He's just making laps and hardly even trying to pass anybody.
• Gilliland has an average starting position of 21.7 and an average finish of 29.0 at Atlanta and has completed 710-of-979 career laps at Atlanta (72.5 percent). Gilliland's best finish at Atlanta is 15th which he accomplished in the 2006 Bass Pro Shops MBNA 500
• Cars can't be that bad because teammate Travis Kvapil was really racy at Vegas last week. It's time for Gilliland to step up and making something happen. Best he can probably hope for in Atlanta is a top-20 finish.
• Gordon has four wins, one pole, 12 top-5s, 19 top-10s and 1,050 laps led in 31 starts at Atlanta with an average finish of 13.1. Gordon has four top-10s in his last five races at AMS.
• Two DNFs in the first three races, Gordon certainly has some negative mojo going on. He's been fast, though, in all three races and I think he could finish in the top five at Atlanta this weekend. I don't see him winning, but do see him sniffing around the leaders all afternoon.
• Gordon earned the pole here in his first-ever start at Atlanta. In 14 starts, Gordon has one top-10 with an average finish of 20.2 and one DNF.
• If he doesn't get into any problems at Atlanta, Robby could run in the top 20 and might play a little on the conservative side now that his points were given back by the National Stock Car Racing Commission and his 21st in the points instead of 37th. We lock in this year's first crop of top-35 drivers after next week at Bristol and Robby is going to be out to solidfy position.
• Hamlin has five starts here with one top-10 and an average finish of 20.2. He has led 19 laps here and has completed all but five of the total possible laps.
• I started to see a little flicker from Denny Hamlin at Vegas. He ran ninth all day. Hamlin didn't threaten to run in the top five, but it was a steady performance and something the FedEx team can build on. Hamlin gets another top-10 this weekend.
Kevin Harvick
• Built new for the 2008 season, this is the same Shell-Pennzoil Chevrolet Impala SS that Harvick drove to an eighth-place finish two weeks ago at Fontana.
• In 14 Cup starts at NASCAR's fastest track, Harvick has one win and two top-5 finishes. Additionally, He has one top-5 and three top-10 finishes in six NASCAR Nationwide Series starts at AMS.
• AMS was the site of Harvick's first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win. He claimed the win by .006 second over Jeff Gordon, the third-closest margin of victory at Atlanta, on March 11, 2001.
• Harvick has not recorded a DNF in 47 consecutive races. Harvick's last DNF was at Dover in September 2006. Additionally, he has run 86 consecutive point-paying races without crashing out of a single one. Combined, Harvick has gone 152 points races in NASCAR two top-divisions without crashing out.
• He's been unspectacular but really steady. Even though he hasn't won, I like this start to the season better than a year ago when he won the Daytona 500. Sure, he hasn't come close to winning, but consistency is there and the bad luck deal with flat tires etc seems to have slacked off for the time being. Atlanta has been a tough track for him since he won there in 2001, but he goes top-10 this Sunday, which would be only the third time he's done that in Atlanta since the 2001 victory.
• Hornish Jr. is making his Cup Series debut here this weekend. Hornish Jr. has one Nationwide Series start at AMS. In March 2007, he qualified in the fifth position and finished the race in 15th place.
• Hornish Jr. also has one IndyCar Series start at AMS. In April of 2001, he started in the sixth position and captured a fourth-place finish at the 1.54-mile quad-oval.
• If I had Hornish, I'd try to trade because he's getting it from all sides right now. NASCAR, not super happy with him and some of his fellow competitors, are not feeling the love either. Top-25 would be close to a miracle at Atlanta.
• Dale Jarrett is a former Atlanta winner and he will make his 41st career start at the 1.5-mile speedway this weekend. Jarrett earned his win at Atlanta during the spring race at the track in 1997. In 40 starts at Atlanta, Jarrett has scored one win, 11 top-5s and 18 top-10s.
• In 40 starts at Atlanta, Jarrett has failed to finish races at the 1.5-mile track only five times. The last time Jarrett failed to finish a race in Atlanta was the track's spring race in 2000 which was the result of an engine failure.
• It appears to me Jarrett is just running laps, trying to keep the car and his backside in one piece until he retires. Atlanta calls for a driver to climb up on the wheel and Jarrett just doesn't have to do that right now with only Bristol and the All-Star race left go. Why risk it? He won't.
• In 13 Cup Series starts at AMS, Johnson has completed 4,131 of 4,152 laps of competition. He has three wins, eight top-5s and nine top-10s. His average starting spot is 8.5 and average finish is 9.4.
• No driver has scored more points than Johnson at AMS over the past 10 Sprint Cup Series races. Johnson has 1,592 points in his past 10 Cup starts at Atlanta, while his nearest competition, Tony Stewart, has 1,487.
• Johnson looked ugly last week and it might not be pretty this week, but he will run better. I've got him penciled in for a top-10 run minimum. Great teams and great drivers rebound when the going gets tough, and Johnson will do just that this weekend. Obviously, he could win every race he enters but I just can't picture him going from 29th last week to first in Atlanta.
• Kahne scored a win at Atlanta during the spring race in 2006 after starting from the pole. He led 85 laps in route to the win. In eight starts at Atlanta, Kahne has one win, four top-5s and five top-10s. Kahne has an average start of 10th and an average finish of 17th at Atlanta.
• He's the only guy to start the year with three top-10 runs and I think he continues the streak at Atlanta. He's no threat to win yet, but seventh to 10th he apparently has found a home at.
Matt Kenseth
• Matt Kenseth will make his 17th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start at Atlanta. In his previous starts at AMS, Kenseth has achieved six top-5 and nine top-10 finishes. He has completed 93.3 percent of all laps attempted. Kenseth has four top-5 finishes in the past five Atlanta Cup races.
• One of my five picks to win the race and almost a lock for a top-5. He's got the speed right now and couple that with his usual consistency and you have a point scoring machine.
Travis Kvapil
• Kvapil has an average starting position of 31.0 and an average finish of 33.0 at Atlanta. Kvapil has completed 959-of-1,300 career laps at Atlanta (73.8 percent). Kvapil's best finish at Atlanta is 26th which he accomplished in the 2005 Bass Pro Shops MBNA 500.
• I really like what I saw out of Kvapil at Las Vegas. He didn't luck into the eighth-place finish. I can very easily see him running somewhere in the top 15 at Atlanta this weekend, which could turn him into quite a value pick.
• Labonte has 30 starts at AMS with 13 top-10s, 12 top-5s, six wins and an average finish of 16.4 with four DNFs. He has led 958 laps and has completed 92.3 percent of the total possible laps. Labonte's last top-10 at AMS was in the fall of 2003.
• Labonte has won a lot of races at Atlanta, but he had a lot more car to do it. I can see Bobby finishing top-20 this week, maybe top-15. Not bad for his value, but you might able to go lower with someone else and still get a better finish.
• Lamar must make Sunday's race based on his performance in qualifying as his team was outside the top 35 in owners' points in 2007.
• Lamar is attempting his first-ever Cup race at Atlanta this weekend. Despite having no starts in the Sprint Cup Series, Lamar has one Nationwide Series start here, finishing eighth here in 2006.
• Martin has tallied 22 top-10s and 13 top-5s at Atlanta, with top-five runs in four of the past seven. Martin has won twice at Atlanta. Both wins came in the fall race ('91 & '94). Martin has started in the top 10 in 26 of his 44 races at Atlanta. He has started inside the top five 18 times. He has earned one pole (3/92) and has started on the front row six times. Martin has led 924 laps at Atlanta, including 227 in the fall of 2004.
• Pencil him in for a top 10 at Atlanta. I can't see him running in the top five, but I can see a finish from seventh to 10th. Remember, though, Martin gets out of this car next week at Bristol.
• Mayfield has 22 starts here with five top-10s, four top-5s, and an average finish of 23.5 with five DNFs. Mayfield has led 80 laps here and has completed 86.2 percent of the total possible laps.
• Mayfield and teammate Scott Riggs were big surprises at Vegas. Mayfield wasn't as strong as Riggs, but he did stay out of trouble and finish 16th. I think he'll run from 16th-19th this week.
• In 11 starts, McMurray averages a 19.5 finishing position and has three top-10 finishes at 1.5-mile track.
• Twenty-second and 25th the past two races, McMurray is floundering and needs to get swimming in the right direction for a couple of races before you should try to hook him back into the boat. In the Roush camp he's slid to the No. 5 driver in my opinion behind David Ragan.
• Casey Mears will make his 11th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start at AMS on Sunday. Mears posted his career-best finish -- 12th -- at the track on Oct. 28.
• Okay, Mears did exactly what he had to do at Vegas and that was finish, which is why he was a quiet 13th. It got him back into the top-35 in the standings, but barely (he's 34th). So, in other words, he's got to do the "take it safe" thing again this weekend. That's why I like him to run top-15 again, even though with a little push he could run top-10. This is a good track for him. If there are not many cars on the lead lap down near the end and he is, then Mears might get a little aggressive. Otherwise, he's going to have to do the one thing a driver hates to do and that's ride, trying to stay out of the way and away from trouble.
• Menard finished seventh here in the fall race of 2006. In three starts, Menard has an average finish of 21.7.
• Twenty-second at Vegas, Menard is maybe top-25 material again. I don't see much here but average at this point, not the worst but nowhere near top-10 material.
• Montoya, making only his fifth start on the Cup circuit in 2007, drove to a fifth-place finish at AMS in March. In the fall race, Montoya blew a tire early and settled for a 34th-place finish.
• A year ago, Montoya finished fifth in this Atlanta race and everyone was raving. No way that happens again Sunday mainly because of all the ranting he did over the radio last week at Las Vegas. He was not a happy camper and kept giving crew chief Donnie Wingo an earful on how bad the car was. They even went so far one time to put five more pounds of air in one of his tires -- which his nuts -- but nothing helped. This team is off and I don't see them getting right at Atlanta I really don't.
• Nemechek must make the field for Sunday's race based on his qualifying time as his team finished outside the top 35 in owners' points in 2007.
• Nemechek has 28 starts here with seven top-10s, three top-5s and an average finish of 20.5 with six DNFs. Nemechek has led 127 laps and has completed 95.2 percent of the total possible laps here.
• He will qualify better than he'll race. Still, a top-30 or worse deal.
Ryan Newman
• Newman's best finish at AMS came in March 2004, when he finished fifth. He also had three consecutive 10th-place finishes at the race track during March 2002 to March 2003.
• Tenth and 14th the past two weeks, Newman hasn't exactly set the world on fire, but he has been steady as you go. You can look at him as an eighth to 14th place finisher in Atlanta. I doubt he'll challenge for a top-5, but somewhere in and around 10th, where he'll outrun teammate Kurt Busch.
• Petty has 54 starts here with 11 top-10s, two top-5s and an average finish of 21.8 and 16 DNFs. Petty's last top-10 finish here was this race in 2006.
• Petty has led 88 laps here and has completed 86 percent of the total possible laps.
David Ragan
• David Ragan competed in his first Sprint Cup race at Atlanta in March of 2007 and earned a 33rd-place finish. Ragan has one start in the NASCAR Nationwide Series at Atlanta Motor Speedway. In 2007 Ragan started 18th and finished 20th.
• Here's the good and the bad on Ragan. His average finish over the past two races is 10.5 and he could have another top-10 run at Atlanta this weekend. The 22-year-old has begun to figure it out and raced his way past Jamie McMurray on the Roush-Fenway depth chart. As good as he is at Atlanta, though, could be as bad at Bristol next week. If you've got him, hold on to him. If buying, make it a one race deal and dump.
• Reutimann must qualify for Sunday's race based on time, as his team was outside the top 35 in owners' points in 2007.
• Reutimann has one prior Cup Series start here with a 40th-place finish.
• Twenty-third and 37th the past two weeks, I'm getting off the Reutimann bandwagon this week, giving it a little breather. There's not something clicking with this team and too many question marks too.
Scott Riggs
• Riggs has seven starts at AMS with one top-10 and an average finish of 24.6 and two DNFs.
• Here's the problem with Scott Riggs and the Haas-CNC team. Riggs was great for three quarters of last week's race, driving his buns off and the crew was making great stops. But it didn't last until the checkered flag. That is the modus operandi for this team and driver. Flashes of brilliance but can't finish the deal off. Now, Riggs is one of the nicest guys in the garage and I'm rooting for him, but he made a bad mistake late at Las Vegas and instead of finishing sixth to 10th, limps home 36th. It's a great tease when a driver that has a low value in fantasy racing does that and this team with Jeff Green and Johnny Sauter did this a lot last year.
• Sadler has led six of the 18 races competed in for a total of 17 laps. Has earned three top-10s in those 18 AMS starts and his best start was second in 2007 and his best finish was sixth in the spring of 2004.
• Another guy to keep an eye that does not have a super value is Sadler. I think he'll crank out another top-15 effort this Sunday, which is way better than he did most times with this team last season. They are not quite there as a top-10 competitor, but could be the surprise top-15 in the opening races of 2008. At the price, might not be a bad play.
• Schrader must make Sunday's race based on his performance in qualifying as his team was outside the top 35 in owners' points in 2007.
• In 46 starts here, Schrader has eight top-10s, three top-5s, a win and an average finish of 22.6 with 11 DNFs. Schrader has led 172 laps here and has completed 87 percent of the total possible laps.
• Schrader could run in the top 25 again this week. Might have finished top-15 in Vegas if not for late race issue. When you're looking a thin bench, if Schrader's down on the end it could be worse at Atlanta.
Mike Skinner
• Skinner is replacing A.J. Allmendinger in the No. 84 Red Bull car this weekend at AMS. Skinner must make Sunday's field based on his qualifying time as his team finished outside the top-35 in points in 2007.
• Skinner has 13 starts here with five top-10s and an average finish of 21.6 and three DNFs.
• I think Skinner could run top-20 in this car Sunday. If the No. 84 is close to being as good as teammate Brian Vickers' No. 83 than Skinner might surprise some people Sunday. He's addicted to speed and Atlanta has plenty of that.
• Smith is making his first Cup start at AMS this weekend. He has two Nationwide Series starts here with finishes of 21st and 23rd.
• DEI would be ecstatic if he could finish in the top 30 this weekend. Another good guy you want to root for, but I don't see much here at all.
• Sorenson recorded his career-best Cup finish of third-place in last season's second race here. In five starts at the 1.54-mile speedway Sorenson has one top-5 (third) and three top-10 finishes. His average start is 20.8 and average finish is 18.4.
• I like Sorenson for a top-15, a guy who could come in and give you a solid effort. He was in the top 10 in both races last year, so he's got a fighting chance to finish eighth to 14th to me. I'm not nearly as pumped up about him as I was to start the season.
Tony Stewart
• In 18 starts here, Stewart has 11 top-10s, seven top-5s, two wins and an average finish of 12.6 with three DNFs. Stewart has led 790 laps, completing 96.6 percent of the total possible circuits.
• In the past 13 races here, Stewart has finished outside the top 10 only twice.
• Stewart is good for a top-10 and could go top-5. And would anybody be totally shocked if he won? No, but he's a notoriously slow starter and I don't see him winning, more like a third to eighth finisher potentially. Lots of power under the hood and that's the great equalizer.
• Truex has six starts with one top-10 and an average finish of 28.7 with four DNFs at AMS. Truex has also led 135 laps.
• I know this hasn't been one of Truex's best tracks, but I can see him potentially finishing from eighth to 15th. That team is looking pretty steady right now. I don't see him going out and running in the top five or leading a bunch of laps because they are lacking a little horsepower.
• Vickers must make Sunday's race here based on his performance in qualifying as his team was outside the top-35 in owners' points in 2007.
• In nine starts here, Vickers has three top-10s with an average finish of 20.7 and two DNFs.
• Vickers was not as bad as 24th-place finish at Las Vegas. He got down a lap early in that long stretch of green flag pit stops early and couldn't get in position for the free pass, although he came close a couple of times. There were times he was running 10th on the track but was 17th or so in the running order. He should run 11th to 13th in Atlanta.
• He will attempt to start in his 45th race at the 1.54-mile track. His best Atlanta start is fifth (NAPA 500/Nov. 18, 2001) and best finish is fifth (March 18, 1991). During his career at AMS, Waltrip has earned one top-5 and eight top-10 finishes. His average start is 23rd and average finish is 21st.
• Waltrip has completed 11,870 of 14,196 laps (83.6 percent) at the track and has led a total of 49 laps in competition.
• Top-25 is a stretch. This team is much better than a year ago, but has a long way to go. I don't see a lot of anything happening with him at Atlanta.
• Yeley has five starts here with an average finish of 23.0.
• Kyle Busch is making Yeley look really bad these days. Guys at Gibbs say the only thing they changed after Kyle Busch took over Yeley's car was the seat. He was okay at Vegas, finishing 27th and 24-27 is about where he'll end up this week too.
Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.
