The Good Bad Ugly - Goody's Cool Orange 500
Editor's note: Mark Garrow provides driver trends for Sunday's Goody's Cool Orange 500 at Martinsville Speedway.
• Almirola is coming off an eighth-place finish in the most recent Sprint Cup Series race at Bristol.
• His team tested at Tri-County Speedway in Hudson, N.C., this week to prepare for the race at Martinsville.
• Almirola has five total starts at Martinsville and one Cup Series start, finishing 43rd here last year.
• OK, here's the deal: Just about everyone, including me, missed this one at Bristol, where he drove a brilliant race for a rookie. Bristol, however, is now a much more forgiving track than Martinsville, which didn't necessarily used to be the case. At his price, if Almirola can finish top-20 Sunday that would still be a deal. I don't see another top-10 or top-15, but hey, I was wrong once on this guy already.
• Andretti must race his way into the race Sunday.
• In 21 starts here, Andretti has two top-5s and a win, with an average finish of 25.8 and five DNFs. Andretti has completed 89.9 percent of the total laps here and has led 108 laps.
• In 10 Cup Series starts here, Biffle has one top-10, an average finish of 24.0 with no DNFs and has led six laps. In the most recent race here, Biffle finished seventh. Of the drivers in the Cup Series top 10, Biffle has the worst average finish here.
• Most of Biffle's past history at Martinsville is ugly, but last fall he was solid as a rock all day. He didn't luck into the only top-10 he's ever had at Martinsville, though some might call it lucky for a guy whose previous three finishes were 31st, 32nd and 32nd before that run. I think it is, however, the beginning of a trend. He's not going to run in the top five and probably won't lead a lap, but he'll be eighth to 12th when it's over.
• The Caterpillar Racing team plans to utilize chassis No. 40 for Martinsville. This is a new car, but the team spent Monday at Caraway Speedway in Asheboro, N.C., testing.
• Blaney has made 14 Cup Series starts at the .526-mile oval during his career. He has started as high as sixth (2006) and finished as high as 16th (2005). He has scored four top-20 finishes in Cup Series competition at the speedway and has qualified inside the top 10 twice.
• This guy has been killing me. I just don't understand how an experienced driver with an experienced crew chief can have such mediocre results, and a big breakthrough appears to be nowhere in sight.
• In four starts at Martinsville, Bowyer has a ninth-place finish to call a career-best. Over those four races, he has logged a 30.3 average starting position but has bounced back nicely in race trim with a 16.3 finishing average. He has completed all but four of the 2,006 laps contested over that span.
• Bowyer is ranked 11th in the average running position category. His average position over the first five NSCS races is about 15th.
• If you haven't jumped on the Clint Bowyer bandwagon, you need to. This guy is beginning to again find the groove he had at the end of 2007. He's been sixth and third the past two races, leading 52 laps at Atlanta and 81 at Bristol. Plus, finishes at Martinsville are going in right direction: 11th last spring, ninth in the fall. You know he's good for a top-15 minimum with a short-track average finish of 14.5.
• Jeff Burton will pilot chassis No. 224 this weekend. Built new for 2008, this is the same car Burton raced to a 12th-place finish at Auto Club Speedway of Southern California last month.
• In 27 starts at Martinsville Burton boasts one win, nine top-5 and 13 top-10 finishes. According to NASCAR's loop data statistics, Burton is the sport's seventh-best green-flag passer at Martinsville Speedway. Over the past three years, the 20-time Cup Series winner has made 206 passes under green-flag conditions, 95 of which were made while running in the top 15.
• Burton is one of only three drivers who have completed every lap this season.
• He has completed 86.3% of the total laps (1,336 of 1,548 laps) running in the top 15 and leads all drivers with the most laps run on the lead lap (1,545 of 1,548 laps).
• I really liked what I saw from Burton last year at Martinsville. Sixth in the spring, he came back and led 51 laps before finishing 12th last fall. Coming off a big win at Bristol, I can see Burton challenging for a top-5 Sunday. Don't see him, though, winning two in a row.
• At Martinsville, Busch has one win, two top-5s, four top-10s and one pole. Busch has an average finish of 20.3 and finished 31st in October. He has led six of 15 races for 358 laps.
• After a runner-up run in the Daytona 500, Busch has been average over the next four races and has basically been a top-15 car with zero top-10s since the season-opener. Factor in that he hasn't had a top-10 at Martinsville since 2005 and I look at him again as a guy with a potential finish from 11th to 14th.
• Busch earned two consecutive fourth-place finishes at Martinsville. He has led a total of 116 laps in six Cup starts.
• Busch is the only driver to lead at least one lap in every Cup race so far, as well as leading the most laps overall (336) and earning the most bonus points (35) of any driver this season.
• This guy has been a monster to start the year, averaging a little more than 156 points a race. I don't necessarily see him winning this weekend, although he has the potential to run in the top five and put himself in position to take a shot at the checkered flag. What I also like is that he's been able to lead all five races so far this season, so he's always going to chip in some bonus points. Remember also, he's going to be bad to the bone next week at Texas.
• Carpentier is attempting to make his first NASCAR start at Martinsville. If he makes this race, it will also be his first short-track start in NASCAR.
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be making his 17th start at Martinsville on Sunday. In 16 races, Earnhardt has accumulated seven top-10 finishes -- all fifth place or better. His most recent top-5 result was last April when he led 137 laps during the race and finished fifth. Overall, Earnhardt has paced 621 laps around the paper clip-shaped half-mile oval.
• Crew chief Tony Eury Jr. selected chassis No. 88-421 for Martinsville. This car was last used two weeks ago at Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway, where the team took the fifth position to claim its third top-5 finish of the season.
• Throw out him getting sucked into a crash at California, and in the four other races Junior is knocking down an average of 160 points and he's led a lap in every race since California. I think Junior can finish this one Sunday anywhere from third to sixth depending on the circumstances.
• Edwards will make his eighth Cup start at Martinsville this weekend. Edwards has completed 94.9 percent of the laps attempted at Martinsville.
• Edwards is driving RK-513, the same car he drove to a 42nd-place finish at Phoenix last year. Edwards was leading the race when the engine gave out.
• Some of the shine is starting to come off Edwards who, after the wins at California and Las Vegas, has a not very pretty average finish of 25.6 for the other three races. He did finish 11th last fall at Martinsville, so I think he's potential top-15 and that's about it. Short-track average finish is 18.7.
• Elliott will make the field this weekend, as he will be eligible for a past champions' provisional if needed. In 43 starts here, Elliott has 14 top-10s, three top-5s and an average finish of 16.7 with six DNFs. Elliott finished 34th here last fall. Prior to that, he had not raced at Martinsville since 2003.
• This weekend's run at Martinsville will be Franchitti's second race at the Virginia short track, which will mark the first time in his NASCAR career that he will be visiting a track where he has already logged some stock car race laps.
• Franchitti made his NASCAR debut at Martinsville last October, competing in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series and finishing 33rd.
• Here's the deal: I don't expect much from him at all if he can get into the race. That said, you charge the corners here much like a road racer taking a left-hand turn, and he does have that experience. If he gets in, a top-30 would be a miracle.
• Gilliland has an average starting position of 28.3 and an average finish of 30.7 at Martinsville. He has completed 1,470 of 1,506 career laps at Martinsville (97.6 percent). Gilliland's best start at Martinsville is from 16th, which he accomplished in the 2007 Goody's Cool Orange 500. His best finish at Martinsville came in the 2007 Subway 500, where he finished 25th.
• He had an outstanding run at Bristol finishing ninth, which was the first time this year he's been inside the top-15 when it was over. My big problem: With a best of 25th, his average Martinsville finish is almost 30, and for his brief Sprint Cup career, he's averaging a 31.2 finish on short tracks. I see him as top-25 this week, maybe.
• In 30 starts at the Virginia short track, Gordon has seven victories, six poles, 18 top-5s and 24 top-10s. Gordon has never posted a DNF at the 0.526-mile track and has finished outside the top 12 only three times. In the past 10 races at Martinsville, Gordon has not finished outside the top 9 and has four wins. His average finish here is 7.2 and he has led 2,466 laps, more than twice as many as the next nearest competitor. Gordon has completed 99.2 of the total possible laps here.
• Let's keep this simple. Gordon will finish somewhere inside the top five and has a chance to win.
• Gordon has 15 starts here with an average finish of 33.4 with six DNFs.
• Of all the drivers guaranteed to make Sunday's field, Gordon has the worst average finish.
• Robby's "bull in a china shop" routine doesn't work well on a race track will little room and where patience is a premium. He finished 34th and 39th in Martinsville last year, and his career short-track average finish is an ugly 30.2.
• This weekend will mark Hamlin's sixth career Sprint Cup start at Martinsville Speedway. Last year, Hamlin sat on the pole for the spring race and led 125 laps before taking third place. In his previous five starts, Hamlin has finished out of the top 10 only once, a 41st-place finish in the spring event in 2006.
• Martinsville will be the first race of the 2008 season for chassis No. 166. In 2007, this car scored top-5 finishes at Darlington (2nd in May 2007) and Dover (4th in June 2007) and qualified third at Dover in the fall before a wreck forced Hamlin to the garage and out of the race.
• In my power rankings, I have Hamlin at fourth this week with a bullet. He's has the best chance of any of the Joe Gibbs drivers to win Sunday. All three will be good, but I think Hamlin will be the best.
• In 13 NASCAR Cup Series starts at the Martinsville, Harvick has five top-10 finishes. Additionally, he has led laps during four of the events with the most coming in October 2004, when he led 104 laps and finished eighth.
• Harvick is one of only three drivers who have completed all laps so far this season.
• He has completed 86.4 percent of the total laps (1,338 of 1,548 laps) running in the top 15 and ranks second of the drivers with the most laps ran on the lead lap (1,541 of 1,548 laps).
• Harvick has not recorded a DNF in 49 consecutive races. His last DNF was at Dover in September (2006). Additionally, he has run 88 consecutive point-paying races without crashing out of a single one.
• Harvick has been "Steady Eddy" so far this year, cranking out four top-10 runs in the first five races, with his worst finish 14th. Martinsville has been pretty tough on him but he's been top-10 in three of the past four races on the track, and I see him finishing in the top 10 again. I don't see top-5 or a chance for the win.
• Hornish Jr. has a total of two short-track starts in Sprint Cup Series competition. Those two outings at tracks less than one mile in length have produced an average start of 16.5 and an average finish of 29.5.
• In preparation for Hornish Jr.'s first start at Martinsville, the No. 77 team recently tested at the half-mile Greenville-Pickens Speedway in South Carolina.
• Hornish is racing PRS-508 this weekend. It was last driven by Kurt Busch at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July 2007. Busch started the race on the outside pole.
• Again, let's keep this simple. Sunday, well, let's just say it won't be pretty.
• Johnson has won the past three races at Martinsville. In 12 Cup Series starts at Martinsville Speedway, Johnson has completed 5,952 of 6,006 laps of competition. He has four wins, eight top-5 and 11 top-10 finishes. His average starting spot is 13.1 and average finish is 6.2.
• Team Lowe's Racing will use chassis No. 48461 as its primary car in Sunday's 500-lap event. Johnson drove this chassis to a win in October 2007 at Martinsville.
• I think Johnson makes his first serious threat at winning a race this year. He was pretty strong at Bristol, which showed problems on intermediate tracks did not "infect" their short-track program. He's one of four guys I think have the best chance to win the Goody's Cool Orange 500, along with Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart. Johnson has led more than 1,200 laps on short tracks and in 37 starts has an average finish of 13.5, which is real sporty for such physical races. His average finish in past seven Martinsville starts is 2.5 with four wins.
• Kahne has two top-10s at Martinsville. His best finish of second came in the spring of 2005. In eight starts the track, Kahne has only one DNF -- in the spring of 2006 due to an engine failure. Kahne's average finish at Martinsville is 17th.
• I've got to be honest; the seventh-place run at Bristol by Kahne surprised me a little bit. Still, he's now been top-10 in four out of five races. Despite the success, I see him top-15 Sunday, where he finished 25th and 15th in 2007. Short-track average finish is 16.7.
• Matt Kenseth will make his 17th Cup start this weekend. In his previous starts, Kenseth has achieved just two top-5 and five top-10 finishes. Kenseth's average start at Martinsville is 24.8. His average finish is 15.6. Kenseth has completed 7,901 of 8,006 laps (98.7 percent) attempted at the track.
• Kenseth is coming off a 10th-place finish at Bristol, which is about all I thought he could hope for. I feel the same way about Martinsville, even though he finished fifth in this race one year ago and came back to finish 10th in the fall. If things go his way, might be able to finish as high as ninth. Any issues and he'll fall in 11th to 13th.
• Kvapil has an average starting position of 21.0, and an average finish of 28.6 at Martinsville. He has completed 2,225 of 2,500 career laps at Martinsville (89.0 percent). Kvapil's best start at Martinsville is from fifth in the 2004 Subway 500.
• Talk about ugly, after the eighth-place finish at Vegas, Kvapil's next best finish is 27th. I can see him running top-25 Sunday, but that's about it.
• Labonte has 30 starts at Martinsville with 13 top-10s, six top-5s, a win and an average finish of 16.2 with two DNFs. Labonte finished 43rd and 22nd here last year. Labonte has led 316 laps here, completing 93.9 percent of the total possible laps.
• His 38th-place finish at Bristol was not indicative of how he really ran. Bobby could have been a top-15 car. Short tracks have never been his strength. In 99 starts, he has but one win (it happened to come at Martinsville in 2002) and average finish of 17.5.
• Mayfield has 23 starts here with five top-10s, a top-5 and an average finish of 22.6 with four DNFs.
• Don't see much here. In last three races at Martinsville. his best finish is 26th.
• McDowell is making his Cup Series debut this weekend. He is replacing David Reutimann in the No. 00 car. Reutimann has replaced Dale Jarrett in the No. 44 car after Jarrett retired last week.
• McDowell has one start here, finishing 30th in last fall's Truck race.
• With a yellow rookie stripe on the back of his car, he's one of Sunday's "designated" cautions. He can count on getting roughed up.
• McMurray must make this weekend's race based on his qualifying time, as his team is outside the top-35 in owners' points.
• In 10 career Sprint Cup starts at Martinsville, Jamie McMurray has one top-5 finish and six top-10 finishes. Martinsville Speedway ranks as McMurray's second best qualifying track with an average starting position of 13.4. McMurray averages a 15.7 finishing position at Martinsville Speedway, his fifth-best track on the circuit.
• Of the "go-or-go-home cars," McMurray has the best average finish.
• You want ugly? How about a guy driving Jack Roush equipment whose average finish in the first five races is 31.2. This guy has killed my draft team, but he can really torment someone this week. In 10 starts at Martinsville, he's been in the top 10 60 percent of the time and finished ninth in the past two spring races. So, is the first week McMurray helps me at all, or will he again cause me to want to stick a screwdriver in my eye?
• In 2007, the No. 5 Chevrolet recorded back-to-back fourth-place finishes on the circuit's shortest track. Since Alan Gustafson became the team's crew chief in 2005, it has posted three top-5 finishes and four top-10s at Martinsville.
• In 10 NSCS starts at Martinsville, Casey Mears has one top-10 finish: On Oct. 22, 2006, Mears turned a 19th-place starting position into a sixth-place result.
• This is another guy who has been shockingly ineffective in the first five races, and currently sits 33rd in the driver standings with three finishes of 33rd or worse. It probably won't get much better this weekend; his average short-track finish 26.3 and he's led a total of six laps in 31 attempts. I can see him maybe running in the top 20.
• Menard has one prior Cup Series start here, finishing 24th in the fall race last year. In one NNS start here, Menard has a 12th-place finish. In one NCTS start at Martinsville, he finished 33rd.
• I can see Paul scrambling to a top-25 finish, but no higher.
• Montoya will be making his third start at Martinsville this weekend. He completed all 1,006 laps at the track in his rookie campaign. In his first race at the track, he finished 16th only to better his finish by eight positions in October when he drove the No. 42 across the stripe in eighth place.
• Chassis No. 735 has not been run this season by the No. 42 team, but was used in both Martinsville races last year.
• Again, you charge into the corners at Martinsville much like a road racer would a tight, left-hand turn, and you use a lot of brake. That's a technique JPM is familiar with, and I can see him as a nice value this week with a top-15 run or better.
• Nemechek must make the field for Sunday's race based on his qualifying time as his team is outside the top-35 in owners' points.
• Nemechek has 26 starts here with one top-10 and an average finish of 24.2 with one DNF.
• Ryan Newman has two poles at Martinsville Speedway. Newman also has five top-5s and six top-10 finishes there in 12 NASCAR Cup starts. Newman's best finish at Martinsville was a second-place effort last fall.
• After the win at Daytona, he has just one more top-10 finish and was 33rd at Bristol, with an average finish so far just a tick higher than 14th. That said, with 19 top-10 finishes, Newman has finished in the top-10 in a little more than half of the 37 short-track races he's run, with 10 top-5s and a win. I can see Newman running seventh to 11th this Sunday and should be no worse than top-15.
• In 54 starts here, Petty has 15 top-10s, five top-5s and an average finish of 18.7 and 11 DNFs.
• His average finish this year is a really ugly 34.6. He was, however, 22nd and 21st in the two Martinsville races in 2007. So, if he gets into the race -- he has to qualify on speed -- Petty could be a top-25 finisher.
• Ragan made his Cup Series debut in 2006, competing in two races that year. The second of those came that October at Martinsville, where Ragan finished 25th.
• In 2006, Ragan made two starts in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series at Martinsville. His best finish came in the October event, when Ragan finished 20th.
• Ragan has been basically a top-20 driver this year, and I see that continuing Sunday. He did finish 15th in this race last year, so I can picture him 15th to 20th when this one is over. This is just his ninth Sprint Cup short-track race and he has only one top-10 finish.
• Raines has six Cup Series starts here with an average finish of 20.8. In two NCTS starts here, Raines has one top-10.
• This weekend's race at Martinsville Speedway marks Reutimann's debut as the driver of the No. 44.
• For the first time in his Sprint Cup Series career, Reutimann will not have to qualify his way into the race based on speed, as he and the No. 44 Team currently sit 34th in the owners' point standings.
• Reutimann has two starts at Martinsville in the Sprint Cup Series but has logged additional laps in the Craftsman Truck Series with a total of six starts and one top-10 finish to his credit.
• Reutimann has been basically a top-20 car all season long, which isn't too bad for the price. In five career short-track races, he's never finished in the top 10, but has an OK average finish of 22 and change. He was 19th at Martinsville last fall, and I can see that same kind of run again with a finish 16th to 20th Sunday.
• In eight starts here, Riggs has two top-10s, a pole position and an average finish of 20.4.
• Riggs is going to be my "best finish for the best price" bargain pick this week. He was eighth in this race a year ago and returned in the fall to finish 16th. I can see him finishing 13th to 18th, and that would be nice at the price.
• He has made eight starts at the track, earning one top-5, three top-10s and led three races for a total of 49 laps. He led 10 laps in this race last year after starting 18th, and finished 24th. His best start was seventh, in the 2006 spring race, and his best finish was fifth, in the spring 2003 race. He has completed 8,708 of 9,006 laps.
• Elliott finished 19th at Bristol but actually ran a little better than that. This is another guy who's not on the radar screen who could sneak in for a top-15.
• Schrader must make Sunday's race based on his performance in qualifying, as his team is outside the top-35 in owners' points.
• Schrader has 45 Cup Series starts and 18 top-10's at Martinsville Speedway (40 percent). He has a track-best start of third (on April 28, 1991) and an average start of 16.1. His best finish is fourth, and he has an average finish of 17.2.
• He may have finished 40th at Bristol but ran a lot better than that -- good enough to run top-15. Can he be that good again with a manufacturer switch? Maybe, because Toyota horsepower will be an added bonus -- and let's not forget he finished 19th here last fall.
• Skinner has 15 starts here with three top-10s, a top-5 and an average finish of 23.5 with three DNFs.
• His Red Bull team tested in New Smyrna, Fla., for this race, but I'm not sure his aggressive style fits Martinsville all that well. He has only three top-10s in 15 tries, and the last time he ran Cup here, he finished 39th.
• Smith is trying to make his second Cup Series start at Martinsville this weekend. He finished 26th in this race last year.
• His team, which is still trying to put all the pieces together, would take a top-30 and be happy.
• Sorenson's best finish in Cup competition at Martinsville was the first time he raced a NSCS car at the Virginia track, in April 2006, when he scored a 12th-place finish (started 25th). Last year he finished 18th (started 28th) in the April 1 race and then followed up with a 41st-place finish (started 28th) in October. Altogether, he has four starts in NSCS competition at the short track, averaging a 24th-place starting position and 26.5-finishing position.
• This team has fallen off the tracks with three finishes of 31st or worse in past four races and a best of 18th. I thought at the start of the season this team would be top-15 material, but that hasn't panned out. In 13 short-track races, Sorenson has never led a lap and his average finish is above 26, so things aren't likely to get much better this weekend.
• Stewart has two wins at Martinsville and three poles, and has finished outside of the top-10 only eight times in 18 career starts. He's also led 1,193 laps, second only to Jeff Gordon, who in 30 career starts at Martinsville has led 2,466 laps. Stewart's average finish here is 12.3 with one DNF.
• I think Tony has a legit shot to win the race Sunday or finish in the top 5 at the worst. He was in the top 5 when he got knocked out of the race at Bristol by Kevin Harvick. Stewart always seems to rebound from tough situations like that, and I say watch out when they drop the rag at Martinsville.
• Truex has four career starts at Martinsville with an average finish of 25.8 and a career-best finish of 19th (twice). He has completed 97.4 percent of the total laps here, leading one.
• OK, he's 12th in the points, but has only one top-10 finish and an average finish of 15. I can see him finishing 13th to 19th Sunday. He won't be great or good, only average. I still say DEI is behind the curve compared to Hendrick, Gibbs, Roush and Childress.
• Vickers has six starts here with one top-10 finish and an average finish of 22.7.
• For the first time since Vickers moved to Team Red Bull, he is guaranteed entry into Sunday's race as his team is in the top-35 in owners' points.
• He's been a top-20 car on average this year and that will probably be the case again Sunday. Eighth place is his best finish at Martinsville, and I certainly don't see that happening again. I picture a finish 18th to 22nd. At his price, though, that might not be too bad.
• He will start in his 44th race at Martinsville. His best start at the track is seventh -- three times (Sept. 25, 1988, Sept. 23, 1990 and April 24, 1994) -- and best finish is third (April 9, 2000). During his career at Martinsville , Waltrip has earned one top-5 and five top-10 finishes. His average start is 25th and average finish is 21st. Waltrip has completed 19,837 of 21,362 laps (92.9 percent) at the track and has led a total of 17 laps in competition. Last fall, Waltrip started 29th and finished 18th in the Napa Toyota.
• For the first time since starting his own team, Waltrip is guaranteed entry into Sunday's race as his team is inside the top-35 in owners' points.
• Waltrip has been a top-30 driver all season and was 34th and 18th in the two Martinsville races in 2007. I pencil him in as a possible top-25.
• In four starts at Martinsville, Yeley has an average finish of 29th with one DNF. He has never finished better than 20th at the track.
• His short-track average finish is 24.1, and his Martinsville average is even worse. Maybe he can finish 25th.
Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.
