A panel of ESPN.com experts rated their top storylines to watch in 2003, and the following rankings are the result of that polling, Nos. 6-10.
| |  | |
| Mickelson |
6. Is this Mickelson's year?
Phil Mickelson will have to deal with all the questions again in 2003: Is this the year he'll finally break through? Does being the best player never to have won a major bother him? Does he wish Tiger Woods would do him a favor and take a flying leap?
|
Mickelson in the majors: '93-'02
|
|
|
Masters
|
U.S.
|
British
|
PGA
|
|
2002
|
3
|
2
|
T66
|
T34
|
|
2001
|
3
|
T7
|
T30
|
2
|
|
2000
|
T7
|
T6
|
T11
|
T9
|
|
1999
|
T6
|
2
|
CUT
|
T57
|
|
1998
|
T12
|
T10
|
79
|
T34
|
|
1997
|
CUT
|
T43
|
T24
|
T29
|
|
1996
|
3
|
T94
|
T40
|
T8
|
|
1995
|
T7
|
T4
|
T40
|
CUT
|
|
1994
|
--
|
T47
|
--
|
3
|
|
1993
|
T34
|
--
|
--
|
T6
|
Lefty's oh-fer streak in majors reached 0-for-38 in 2002, despite top-3 finishes at The Masters and U.S. Open. He proclaimed to have changed his game for the Muirfield links, but was 66th in the British Open and 34th at the PGA Championship to wrap up another season without a major.
Can he prevent that streak from reaching 0-for-42 in 2003? Perhaps more significantly, will he maintain his position as the world's second-best golfer for the fourth straight season?
Mickelson's length will give him an advantage on Augusta's revamped 7,290-yard track at April's Masters, but he'll still have to keep his drives in the fairways to have a chance at his first green jacket.
He will likely have the big-city crowd behind him in June's U.S. Open at Olympia Fields, which is just outside Chicago. At last year's Open at Bethpage, Lefty was a favorite of the raucous New York City fans, who cheered his go-for-broke style and rooted for an end to his streak. They even serenaded him with renditions of "Happy Birthday." Mickelson's birthday (he turns 33 on June 16) falls on the Monday after the Open in 2003, so it's unlikely the crowd will get the chance to celebrate the occasion -- unless of course he's in a playoff that day.
Despite finishing another year without a major, Mickelson had two wins and was second on the money list for a third straight season. However, he may be hard-pressed to repeat the feat in 2003. With Ernie Els and Co. knocking on the door gunning for Tiger, will 2003 be the year Lefty gets left behind?
|
OUR PREDICTION
|
|
Mickelson was busy in the offseason and will be spending time with his family until the Phoenix Open, where he'll make his 2003 debut. He played well at the EMC World Cup at the end of 2002, particularly on the greens with his new space-age Futura putter from Titleist (which he won't be able to use at the British Open because the R&A banned it). If he can stay consistent and remained focused on his golf game (his third child -- and first son -- is due to arrive in March), he'll again finish runner-up to Woods on the money list. He'll have two more top 10s in majors, but the monkey will remain on his back another year.
|
7. Will anyone emerge from the 2002 first-timers club?
There were 18 first-time winners on tour last year, as both young and old stepped to the fore to claim their first trophies. Was this a fluke? And who, if any, among them will take their place among golf's elite in 2003?
|  | | All signs point to a big year for Charles Howell III. |
Of the 18 first-time winners (see accompanying chart), 12 were in their 30s. Headlining that group is Jerry Kelly, who came from nowhere to win two events and finish sixth on the money list, and Len Mattiace, who also picked up his first two victories, his first one coming in the 219th tournament of his career.
While Kelly, Mattiace and the thirtysomething crowd found success in the early months, the young guns made their run at the end of the year. Of the final six first-time winners in 2002, five of them were 28 or younger, and their average age was around 25 years old.
Included in that group were Charles Howell III (top-10 finish in three of his last four events), Chris Riley (missed only five cuts and finished in the top 50 in all 23 of the other events he played), Jonathan Byrd (rookie of the year candidate) and Luke Donald (won the final event of his rookie year). Will any break away from the pack in 2003?
|
OUR PREDICTION
|
|
There certainly won't be 18 first-time winners in 2003, but don't be surprised if the number reaches double figures again. The tier of players just under Tiger Woods is getting more crowded, and it's a good bet at least a few of the first-time winners in 2002 will be multiple winners in 2003.
Howell will establish himself as a fixture in the top 10 of the money list for years to come, and Byrd will earn two wins and six top 10s in his sophomore season. |
8. Els and Beem: Encore in 2003?
One is a South African with arguably the sweetest golf swing this side of Ben Hogan. The other is a Pepto-chugging everyman who was hawking cell phones a few years ago. The common thread?
| |  | |
| Beem |
| |  | |
| Els |
Both were major championship winners in 2002.
Both relegated Tiger Woods to his only runner-up finishes of the year.
Both will be worth keeping an eye on in 2003.
Ernie Els had as many wins in 2002 as Woods (5), highlighted by victories at the World Match Play Championship and the British Open. More importantly, he established himself as the next likely challenger to Woods' throne -- although he still may fall victim to the "Tigeritis" that sent him to a psychologist in search of a cure.
Struggling with an eight-stroke lead in the final round of the Genuity Championship in early March, Els watched Woods take a huge chunk out of his edge before holding him off with six straight pars. He later said watching Woods making his charge was "not a very comfortable feeling."
Despite a solid victory in Dubai the next week, Els' confidence problems, and his preoccupation with Woods -- "These days, you play the golf course and you play Tiger," -- carried over to the British Open, where Woods was going for the third leg of the Grand Slam.
To his credit (and perhaps he owes this to his therapist), Els is among the only golfers to admit he thinks about where Woods is every time he takes the course. But does he think about him too much?
The Tiger factor didn't weigh heavily on Els' mind during the final round of the British Open (Woods shot an 81 in driving wind and rain in the third round), but the South African blew his lead anyhow. A late mistake forced a four-way playoff for the claret jug, which Els coolly won with four straight pars.
The victory was a big confidence boost for the Big Easy -- and prevented the media onslaught that would have ensured had he lost the playoff after losing a late lead. He goes into 2003 as the next great hope to challenge Tiger's dominance. The big question is, how bad does he want it? The 33-year-old Els is a devoted family man, and may be on the back nine of his full-time days on tour.
Rich Beem was the other major championship winner in 2002 not named Tiger Woods, and his victory was more impressive -- but perhaps not as indicative of future results -- than Els'.
Beem won his first major at the PGA Championship in style, making key shot after key shot on the back nine at Hazeltine to beat Woods -- who made his expected late charge by birdieing his last four holes -- by a single stroke.
The likable Beemer -- who also won The International two weeks before -- became a folk hero that week, as stories of his hard-partying days as a salesman outside Seattle and of his habit of chugging Pepto before every round to calm his nerves made the media rounds.
Is Beem ready to rise to the upper echelon in 2003? Or will he be mentioned in the same sentence as Mark Brooks five years from now?
|
OUR PREDICTION
|
|
If he can deal with the Tiger factor, expect big things from Els in 2003 -- including another major championship victory. Of the 15 golfers examined in an ESPN.com analysis, Els had the highest winning percentage against Woods in 2002 (.385). However, it's still unclear whether Els can establish himself as a serious threat to Woods' dominance for years to come.
Beem isn't yet ready for primetime. He'll have a letdown season of sorts, earning a victory but failing to seriously contend in any of the majors -- but he'll have a smile on his face all the way through it.
|
9. What's the deal with Duval?
David Duval was supposed to step up as Tiger's top rival in 2002, but instead faded into oblivion after a rough year on and off the course. Will he re-emerge in 2003? Or is his time in the spotlight over?
|  | | David Duval had a tough year on and off the course in 2002. |
After winning multiple events in the three years from 1997-99, Duval had only one victory in 2000 (Buick Challenge) and 2001 (British Open), although his win in '01 quieted the Best Player Never To Have Won A Major talk. He didn't finish higher than sixth place in any event in 2002.
He has dropped on the money list every year since his No. 1 finish in 1998 (1999: 2, 2000: 7, 2001: 8, 2002: 80) but none of the plunges were even close to as precipitous as 2002.
So why the nosedive?
His struggles can be traced to injuries to his body and his psyche. In addition to dealing with neck, shoulder and wrist injuries, he played through emotional hardship after ending his engagement with longtime girlfriend Julie McArthur early in the year.
He slumped through the first half of the season, but seemed re-energized by a strong showing at the Ryder Cup. He held the first- and second-round leads at the Michelob Championship before dropping to 25th in the week after returning from The Belfry. The next week, he fired a 63 on Saturday to take the lead heading into the final round in Las Vegas and finished sixth. But the momentum waned after that as he slumped to the finish line.
|
OUR PREDICTION
|
|
Duval wasn't very busy in the silly season, and the question remains whether he'll return to the PGA Tour with his physical and mental houses in order. If so, expect him to rise back to the top 25 -- maybe even the top 10 -- in 2003.
|
10. Tryon and Ochoa: Young guns or too young?
Teen phenom Ty Tryon was supposed to make a big splash in 2002. He never even made it into the water.
| |  | |
| Ochoa |
| |  | |
| Tryon |
Tryon became the youngest player to earn a PGA Tour card when he made it through Q-school at the age of 17 in 2001. But Tryon's coming out party in 2002 was crashed by a bout with mono, which kept him on the sideline -- and on the couch -- from March until September.
Of Tryon's 14 professional rounds on tour in 2002, only one was in the 60s -- but it was a great one. He shot a 65 in the second round of the Tampa Bay Classic in his first tournament after returning from the illness, making his first and only cut of the year. Tryon received a medical exemption to play in 2003, and will have 21 events to earn the equivalent of the 125th player on the money list to retain his tour card for 2004.
In the women's game, 21-year-old Lorena Ochoa will make her debut as a full-time member of the LPGA Tour in 2003. At the University of Arizona last year, Ochoa won 8 of 10 tournaments -- including seven in a row -- and broke her own NCAA scoring record. She then turned pro in May and promptly won three Futures Tour events and the tour's money title to earn her spot in the big leagues.
She gave a preview of what's to come in March at the Welch's/Circle K Championship in Tucson, where she finished fifth while setting an amateur scoring record.
|
OUR PREDICTION
|
|
Unlike Tryon, Ochoa will make an impact in 2003. She's got the skills -- and more importantly the NCAA experience -- to quickly climb the leaderboards and establish herself as one of the best for years to come. Tryon, meanwhile, has only high school experience to fall back on. He'll lose his card in 2003 after making only a few cuts. But don't worry, he'll be back.
|
Check out Nos. 1-5 ...
David Lefort is ESPN.com's golf editor, and can be reached at david.m.lefort@espn3.com.
|
|
|
