A panel of ESPN.com experts rated their top storylines to watch in 2003, and the following rankings are the result of that polling. We released Nos. 6-10 on Monday, so here are the top five.:
1. Will Tiger win the Grand Slam?
Tiger Woods tailors his game and his schedule to peak at the majors, and so far the strategy has worked to perfection. The world's best player came close to completing golf's first-ever modern grand slam for the second time in three years in 2002, and there's no reason to think he can't make a run at it again in 2003.
|  | | How many times would Tiger Woods pump his fist if he ever won the Grand Slam? |
Woods will first go after a little history at Augusta, where he'll be taking aim at his record third straight green jacket at The Masters. Last year's controversial changes -- adding almost 300 yards to the course -- took part of the field out of the running before they even teed off. However, accuracy will be just as important as distance off the tee at Augusta.
Complicating matters at the year's first major is the firestorm of controversy engulfing the club. Martha Burk will surely have her troops picketing at the gates and the media circus on Magnolia Lane will add an entirely new dimension to the event -- particularly for Woods, who is tired of all the questions he's had to field on the club's all-male membership policy. You can bet he'll have to answer them all over again in April.
A win at Augusta would also be Tiger's ninth in a major, marking the halfway point in his quest to match Jack Nicklaus' 18 major championships and drawing him even with Ben Hogan and Gary Player for third on the all-time list.
Should he also pull out victories at the U.S. Open (at Olympia Fields) in June and the British Open (Royal St. George's) a month later -- an unlikely scenario, even for Tiger -- the PGA Championship in Rochester, N.Y., will be the most highly anticipated golf event in the last 50 years, maybe of all-time.
Of course, the X-factor in all this -- besides the steep odds against the scenario actually playing out -- is Woods' knee injury. After Dec. 12 surgery to remove fluid around ligaments in his left knee and to remove a benign cyst, Woods isn't expected to return to action until February. Will the layoff affect his game at all? Is this an injury that will come back to haunt him down the road?
Woods also officially broke off with longtime swing coach Butch Harmon late last summer, although the two have said they will continue to work together should Woods have a problem he can't correct.
Has that relationship really run its course? If Woods -- who says he now knows enough about his own mechanics to make changes himself -- suddenly gets a bad case of the shanks, will Butchie again be by his side?
Stay tuned ...
|
OUR PREDICTION
|
| Woods is far and away the best golfer in the world, but we don't think he'll be able to pull off the Grand Slam in 2003. When he won the first two legs of the Slam last year, he became the first person to do so in over 30 years. Bottom line: There are too many bounces that have to go his way and too many others gunning for him. He'll win The Masters, but fall short at U.S. Open.
|
2. Collision course at The Masters
The biggest event on the golf calendar gets even bigger in 2003 thanks to the feud between Martha Burk and club chairman Hootie Johnson over Augusta National's all-male membership history.
What started as an exchange of letters last summer has grown into a national debate that will come to a head at The Masters in April. Burk's women's group -- and Rev. Jesse Jackson -- have promised protests during the year's first major if the club doesn't admit a woman before then. Meanwhile, Johnson has said the club won't cave in at "the point of a bayonet," setting the two on a collision course.
Between picketers and the omnipresent media, the tournament is sure to have a different feel. Sure, the azaleas and magnolias will still be in bloom and the greens will still roll like hardwood floors (provided the rains stay away), but the atmosphere will be different.
The members in their green jackets who usually stroll around the grounds grinning from ear to ear might have a more somber facade -- or will simply leave their jackets in the clubhouse.
Will the players be affected by the hoopla? Jeff Sluman doesn't think so.
"This has been going on for six months," Sluman told the Associated Press. "Everyone has been asked questions. Everyone has been quoted. I don't see anything new coming out of that. I think there will be demonstrations. But once we get inside Augusta, it will be Augusta as usual."
As for the tournament itself, Tiger Woods will try to become the first person to win three straight Masters, while hometown boy Charles Howell III will probably garner his share of attention thanks to a strong finish to the 2002 season and a top 10 showing on the money list. The 300 yards added to the course last year will likely knock at least part of the field out of the running right off the bat, and accuracy off the tee will be key.
How will the media blitz and likely protests affect golf's top event? How much more face will Augusta lose? Will Hootie and Martha agree to sit down and hash it out? Will any more members join the two Augusta defectors?
|
OUR PREDICTION
|
| There will be plenty of picketers outside the gates of the club, but you'll have to count on SportsCenter to see them because you can bet they won't be on CBS's commercial-free broadcasts. While Augusta will have a different feel and its members will take a hit in the ego department, the tournament itself will go off without a hitch despite some inconveniences.
Hootie will avoid controversy during the week thanks to his PR assistant, and a few months down the road when the hype has died down, the club is shut down for the summer and all the bayonets are put away, he will silently admit Augusta's first woman member without any kind of public notice. |
3. Chasing Tiger
All the great ones had a rival.
| |  | |
| Howell |
| |  | |
| Els |
| |  | |
| Mickelson |
Arnold Palmer had Jack Nicklaus. The Bear had Lee Trevino and Tom Watson. What about Tiger? So far no one has come close to challenging Woods on a consistent basis. Sure, there's been the occasional hot golfer to keep him honest one week or another, but no one you'd call a true adversary.
Woods had five victories in 2002, while no one else on the PGA Tour had more than two (the same number of majors won by Tiger last year). There were 18 first-time winners on the PGA Tour in 2002, will any of them emerge in 2003 to step into the role of foil for the dominant Woods?
Phil Mickelson had his chance, finishing No. 2 on the money list for the last three years. But the family man, who's expecting another child just before The Masters, seems resigned to his bridesmaid status.
Ernie Els had a big 2002, matching Woods' five wins with five of his own worldwide, but he too doesn't appear to have the drive to fill the void by Tiger's side. He's also acknowledged that staring down Woods on a Sunday afternoon is a daunting task. After all, his British Open victory last summer came only after Woods played himself out of contention with an 81 in the third round.
Rich Beem outdueled Woods at last year's PGA, sending him to his first runner-up finish at a major in the process. The likable Beem had an incredible run with wins at The International and the PGA, but will 2003 prove him to be a one-hit wonder or a bona fide star?
There were 18 first-time winners on the PGA Tour in 2002, but it's unlikely any of them are ready to share Woods' spotlight. The closest might be Charles Howell III, who finished ninth on the money list last year and appears to have that extra gear necessary to keep up with Woods.
|
OUR PREDICTION
|
| An ESPN.com analysis revealed that 15 of the world's best golfers (including seven of the top 10 on the money list) combined to finish ahead of Woods only 30 times in common events in 2002. Meanwhile, Woods finished ahead of the 15 a total of 142 times, with five ties. That's a winning percentage of .831 for Woods.
What does this mean for 2003? While some may gain small strides, Woods will remain far ahead of any of his competitors. Bottom line: History, not anyone on tour, will continue to be Woods' greatest rival. |
4. Can Sorenstam keep it up?
Annika Sorenstam just compiled the best season for a woman golfer in almost 30 years with 13 worldwide victories in 25 events, 20 top 10s and 17 top 3s. What will she do for an encore in 2003?
|  | | Annika Sorenstam said her incredible 2002 season took its toll in the form of physical and mental exhaustion. Will that affect her in 2003? |
Sorenstam became the first woman to reach double digits in official LPGA Tour wins in a single season (11) since Kathy Whitworth in 1968, and her 13 wins worldwide were the most since Mickey Wright in 1963.
She broke or tied 20 LPGA records, including the most consecutive rounds in the 60s (11), the lowest scoring average (she broke her own record by averaging 68.20) and most money won in a season ($2,863,904 -- also eclipsing her own mark).
Sorenstam has 21 worldwide wins over the last two seasons, and with 13 in 2003 can tie Wright's record for the most victories in a three-year span (1962-64). With 11 wins in 2003, she can match the mark for most over the course of two years, also held by Wright (1963-64).
For all she's accomplished in her 42-win career, Sorenstam still has yet to complete the career Grand Slam. Missing from her resume are wins at the LPGA Championship and the Women's British Open, the latter meaning more to her because she's European.
''I want to win that badly,'' she told The Associated Press. This year's Open will be held at Royal Lytham & St. Anne's (July 31-Aug. 3).
Another event Sorenstam will be eagerly awaiting is the Solheim Cup, played in 2003 in her home country of Sweden. Europe will be looking for revenge after the Americans' comeback win in 2002.
Sorenstam is spending a portion of her offseason working a day or so a week in the kitchen of her local golf club, and she's publicly expressed her desire to become a gourmet cook someday -- but the only cooking she'll be doing in 2003 will be on the golf course.
|
OUR PREDICTION
|
| While Sorenstam admitted she was mentally and physically drained after the season, there's nothing that points to a big dropoff in 2003. She'll have until March to recharge her batteries, although she has committed to playing in the ConAgra Foods Skins Game at the end of January.
There's no more "Big Three" (Sorenstam, Se Ri Pak and Karrie Webb) in women's golf -- the Swede stands alone. Still, the rigors of the 2002 season have taken their toll, and Sorenstam will win only eight events (including two majors). |
5. Health of the tours
The PGA, LPGA and Champions (formerly Senior) Tours all had their struggles in the last year, thanks, at least in part, to the shaky economy. But their problems go deeper than that, and they're not likely to go away in 2003.
The PGA Tour, which usually releases its schedule for the next year by mid-September, had to scramble to find sponsors and didn't put out its 2003 slate until the end of November. Because purses are continuing to skyrocket (in 1996, prize money totaled about $71 million; in 2003 it will be $235 million) and the economy is continuing its slide, some corporations were priced out of their title sponsorships.
Eighteen events will have new sponsors in 2003, leaving many wondering if such growth is good for the game. There will only be one less tournament this year than last (48), but five events had to piece together a coalition of sponsors to avoid extinction. They'll again be looking for a title sponsor for 2004.
The LPGA and Champions Tours, meanwhile, had popularity problems piled on top of their sponsorship woes. Both implemented fan-friendly initiatives hoping to lift sagging television ratings and dwindling galleries, but both may not be at the end of their downturn.
The Champions Tour in particular has been in a ratings pit over the last two years, a hole believed by many to have been dug by the lack of star power. In the tour's heyday in the 1980s, stars like Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Lee Trevino and Chi Chi Rodriguez were all in their senior primes. Now, all are either off the tour or have limited their schedules. Some players, most notably Nicklaus and Tom Watson, also blame the courses and layouts for the tour's popularity problems.
Any way you slice it, the Champions Tour -- and no, its shiny new name and logo are not going to save the day -- is in for a long 2003, even with a new TV deal with The Golf Channel.
The LPGA Tour hasn't had problems with marquee players (thanks to an influx of international talent), and has seen an upturn in both the quality of courses and overall play in the last few years. Its biggest issue has been trying to blossom in the shadow of Tiger Woods.
The women's game to some extent has been pushed even further on the back burner by the PGA Tour in the era of Tiger. And while prize money will increase in 2003, the schedule has its holes. The final version is not yet available, and there are still two "TBA" events in May and in September.
|
OUR PREDICTION
|
| Both the LPGA and Champions Tours have longterm plans in place to turn things around, and they're going to need them. The LPGA Tour showed signs of life in 2002, but the Champions Tour needs some fresh blood -- Tim Finchem should consider lowering the eligibility age from 50 to 45 -- before things will start to improve.
The PGA Tour, unless the economy significantly rebounds in the first two quarters of 2003, will again have problems putting together its schedule. Don't be surprised if we see the "Sony Greater Hartford Open Presented By Cannon And Tony's House Of Pizza" in 2004. |
Check out Nos. 6-10 ...
David Lefort is ESPN.com's golf editor, and can be reached at david.m.lefort@espn3.com.
|
|
|
