Expect plenty of intrigue at Cog Hill
Sabbatini, Marino On Top Of Leaderboard
LEMONT, Ill. -- The best approach is to play as well as possible, contend for the title, and the rest will take care of itself.
Human nature, however, does not always allow for such simplicity.
The FedEx Cup playoffs are an exercise in permutations and projections that can leave players and fans dizzy trying to keep up with it all.
With the field now down to the top 69 players (Paul Casey withdrew due to injury) at the BMW Championship, only 30 can advance to the Tour Championship in two weeks in Atlanta, where a bonus pot awaits, including a $10 million jackpot for the overall winner.
BMW Championship Leaderboard
T-1. Sabbatini (-5)
T-1. Marino (-5)
T-3. Van Pelt (-4)
T-3. Leishman (-4)
Six tied at 3 under.
• Complete scores
In theory, every player here at Cog Hill Golf & Country Club can still dream of those riches, but reality suggests that anyone coming from back in the pack is going to need two extraordinary weeks of golf in order to waltz away with that prize.
So it only makes sense that the four players at the top of the leaderboard through one round are among those who have plenty of work ahead. None of them is assured a spot in the Tour Championship, let alone a shot at the FedEx Cup title.
"It's on my mind a little bit but I'm trying not to think about it too much to be honest with you," said Steve Marino, who shot 5-under-par 66 to share the first-round lead with Rory Sabbatini, 1 stroke ahead of Marc Leishman and Bo Van Pelt. "I'm just trying to go out there and treat this like any other tournament and just try to do the best I can, because I think if you start thinking about all that other stuff and start number-crunching in your mind … that's probably not going to be a very good thing."
Good point.
Still, there is too much time for idle thought in golf. And at some point, they must be curious to know what it's going to take.
Marino, for example, is 26th in the standings, less than 200 points ahead of No. 31 Justin Leonard. He has a lot of room to go either way depending on what those around him do this weekend.
Steve Stricker and Tiger Woods have no such worries, really. They are 1-2 in the FedEx Cup standings and will head to Atlanta at or near the top, no matter what happens here. Stricker shot 72; Woods shot 68 and is tied for fifth 2 strokes back. A victory here and Woods moves to the top.
But after that, it gets interesting.
Anyone in the top 15 is assured of going to Atlanta, meaning that the remaining 54 players are vying for 15 spots at East Lake.
And yet there remains incentive for everyone but Stricker and Woods -- who will have to be content with this week's prize money.
"I obviously look at it at the end of every week," said Geoff Ogilvy, who shot 68 and is eighth in the FedEx Cup standings. "It's not an exact science. You look at the projections and they change all day. Even if you stay at the same score, they move up and down, especially on a Sunday. I could finish eighth and not move forward. It depends on what everyone finishes.
"I just want to play good. It would be great to get to Atlanta with a chance to win the thing and have it in your control. Top five it's completely in your control. And I'm sure six to 10 have a very good chance."
The top five control their own destiny in Atlanta, so Heath Slocum, Zach Johnson and Scott Verplank have incentive to hold their positions.
Sabbatini, Van Pelt and Leishman are outside of the top 30 at the moment. Sabbatini, who dropped from 26th to 35th when he missed the cut at the Deutsche Bank, could squeak in with a top-40 finish but needs to be in the top five to assure himself of the trip to Atlanta.
For Van Pelt and Leishman, it's even harder. Van Pelt (54th) needs a top-10 finish at minimum, a top-three result to be secure; Leishman, who got only to 67th when he eagled the final hole at the Deutsche Bank, can't get there unless he is in the top six, and also needs to be in the top three to be certain.
Defending champion Camilo Villegas, who is 52nd, finds himself in a similar position, as does Sergio Garcia, who is 53rd. Villegas, who shot 68, and Garcia, who shot 71, will need to be battling for the BMW title on Sunday if they want to advance to Atlanta.
"The beauty of the playoffs is real simple: If you win each week, then you're fine," said Sabbatini, who won in Dallas earlier this year but has not finished better than 34th since. "Luckily for me I was in a position that I was able to miss the last two cuts and still be here this week.
"The situation for me is I've got to go out there for the next three days and do what I did today. I can't go out there and worry about where I've got to finish this weekend or anything like that. … Hopefully at the end of the week, the results will be good enough."
Bob Harig covers golf for ESPN.com. He can be reached at BobHarig@gmail.com.
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