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9:30 p.m. ET: In an age when pros spend more time in the gym than the pub, working on their six-packs instead of beer bellies, the final pairing at the Masters Tournament on Sunday will harken back to a time when golfers were golfers -- not athletes.

Nicknamed "El Pato" (Spanish for "The Duck"), Angel Cabrera won his previous major championship while chain-smoking his way through Oakmont at the 2007 U.S. Open. His playing partner Sunday at Augusta National, Kenny Perry, is 48 years old and recently claimed, "I don't really work out ... and I don't really watch what I eat."

So much for the Tiger Woods effect, huh?

And yet, there's a very good chance that one of these players could be shouldering a rather large green jacket come Sunday afternoon.

You've heard this statistic for years, so there's no reason I shouldn't repeat it one more time here in the blog: Since 1989, every Masters champion has played in the final pairing on Sunday afternoon except one. That was Zach Johnson two years ago.

Will Perry or Cabrera be the next Masters champ? Or will someone come from further back in the pack? Let's examine what each contender needs to do and avoid. At the end, I'll give you my selection -- or maybe my Blog Jinx -- for the winner.

Angel Cabrera (11-under 205)

Needs to ... set a record.

No Masters champion has ever posted four consecutive sub-70 rounds, but with scores of 68-68-69 already, Cabrera could be the first. And if he does post another 69 or better? That would put him at 14-under, which would be enough to win the title.

Then again, there's a reason why no one's ever done it before. Tough to keep that kind of momentum for four days at Augusta National.

Needs to avoid ... thinking about the historical significance of a potential victory.

It was 41 years ago when Robert De Vicenzo had apparently gotten himself into a playoff with Bob Goalby, only to sign an incorrect scorecard. No Argentine before or since has won the Masters, though Cabrera doesn't seem to have put much thought into the possibility.

"Well, I was not there and I was not able to live that bad moment that Roberto had at that time," Cabrera said, "but now I am playing for myself and trying to make the most of it."

Kenny Perry (11-under 205)

Needs to ... continue competing like he's playing with house money.

Last year, Perry made no bones about the fact that his main priority was making the U.S. Ryder Cup team in his home state of Kentucky. He did that and succeeded. Ever since, it seems as if he's been playing with nothing to lose. It's a great attitude to have when all the chips are on the line in the final round.

Needs to avoid ... varying from the usual strategy.

Perry is on top of the leaderboard due to his ball-striking prowess; he's currently hitting nearly 80 percent of fairways and 80 percent of greens in regulation. He's never going to be the game's best putter, but if he keeps giving himself chances, he'll make plenty of pars and a few birdies, too.

Hey, there's a reason why the guy has only carded four bogeys so far this week.

Chad Campbell (9-under 207)

Needs to ... stay hot on the front nine.

So far this week, Campbell has shot a bogey-free 10-under-par on the 27 holes he's played on the front side of Augusta National. A few birdies without any missteps on Sunday might put him back in the lead by the turn.

Needs to avoid ... blowing up on the final three holes.

For as proficient as Campbell has been on the front nine, he's floundered on Nos. 16-18. He's played these three holes in 4-over, which includes a double-bogey and four other bogeys. He'll need to stake a claim to a pretty serious lead through 15 if he plans on faltering coming in again on Sunday.

Jim Furyk (8-under 208)

Needs to ... hope for wind, tough pin placements and altogether difficult scoring conditions.

If the final round turns into a grindfest, no one can churn out pars like steady Furyk. And he knows that's very much a possibility in the final round.

"If conditions are tough and the greens firm up, as I know that they can," he said, "they can definitely take some moisture out if need be."

Needs to avoid ... falling behind early.

At 3 back entering the final round, Furyk can't afford to have that differential increase to 4 or 5 -- or more. Might be a difficult task, too, considering he's posted only six total birdies on the front nine all week.

Others (7-under 209 and above)

Need to ... post a number.

Hey, it's as simple as this for the group that includes Steve Stricker (7-under), Todd Hamilton, Shingo Katayama and Rory Sabbatini (6-under), Tim Clark (5-under), plus a gaggle of players at 4-under (among them Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, who are playing together in the 1:35 p.m. pairing Sunday).

Make a ton of birdies, get in the clubhouse and hope for some wreckage from the leaders. It can be done, too. After all, Anthony Kim is one of those at 4-under; he posted a record 11 birdies in Round 2. That's the kind of effort it will take.

Need to avoid ... early bogeys and pars.

Look, it's not exactly like there's a bunch of rookies leading this tourney right now. With so many veterans on the board, we can't expect 'em all to come back to the pack, so the guys 4 shots back or farther need to go get them. Play aggressive golf and hopefully the risks will be rewarded.

So, with all of that said, my pick to win the 2009 Masters is ... Kenny Perry.

I love the nothing-to-lose attitude, love the solid ball-striking and especially love the fact that he's been a closer recently, having won four of his past 20 starts on the PGA Tour. When this guy gets into contention, he often seals the deal. That could equate to a green jacket come Sunday evening.

Thanks for reading the Live Blog throughout the week. I'll be back on Sunday afternoon with more news, notes and analysis from the course. Until then, hit 'em straight. ...

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7:25 p.m. ET: Thanks for all of the e-mails and tweets today. Taking a break now to write my final end-of-day blog post, which will break down what each contender needs to do and avoid while also giving my pick to win the green jacket on Sunday.

Check back in a little while for this one ...

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7:16 p.m. ET: E-mail from Steven in London in a flat of former Bobby Jones Scholars:

My two flatmates and I have been having a debate here in London while watching El Pato move into good position. I contend that Angel would be the worst golfer to win multiple majors. Looking back for the past 24 years (that I've been alive), I can't see anyone worse. They contend that winning two majors makes you a good player, but clearly you can't base a career on two major victories and winning back-to-back Brazilian Opens in 1998-99. El Pato: Worst player (potentially) to have won two majors.

Not sure that's a fair assessment. Since Cabrera has always been more of an international player, we have to look at his record around the world. The guy does own 17 victories worldwide and has always been a pretty solid performer.

As for the "worst" players -- and that's such a subjective term -- to win two of 'em, I just quickly looked back at the list dating back to 1934 (when the Masters began) and came up with four other candidates: Olin Dutra (who once won the U.S. Open with a case of dysentery ... ouch), Andy North (only had one other career victory ... sorry, buddy -- still a top-notch analyst, though), Lee Janzen (sort of mirrored North's career with those two Open wins) and John Daly (I think you know his story).

I think Cabrera has been more successful than each of those players.

Now if Todd Hamilton were to pull it off tomorrow, that's another story ...

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7:09 p.m. ET: Just a look at the top eight on the leaderboard shows there's plenty of experience in the mix. Here's everyone at 6-under or better and their ages:

• Angel Cabrera: 39
• Kenny Perry: 48
• Chad Campbell: 34
• Jim Furyk: 38
• Steve Stricker: 42
• Todd Hamilton: 43
• Shingo Katayama: 36
• Rory Sabbatini: 33

That's right. Of the top eight, the youngest player is Sabbatini at 33. No youngsters in the mix.

In fact, you have to go back to the big group of nine players at 4-under to find anyone in their 20s, as Sean O'Hair, Nick Watney, Anthony Kim and Hunter Mahan all qualify.

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7:05 p.m. ET: Kenny Perry for birdie and a 1-shot lead entering the final round ... and he leaves it short.

He taps in for par and he'll end the day at 11-under, tied for the lead with Angel Cabrera, 2 shots clear of anyone else.

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7:03 p.m. ET: There goes the Chad Campbell elevator ride.

Down. Up. Down.

Campbell finishes double-birdie-bogey after needing to chip out from the pine straw on 18. That's a third-round 72 for him and he'll go into Sunday in sole possession of third place at 9-under, playing in the penultimate pairing with Jim Furyk.

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7 p.m. ET: Tweet, tweet ...

Dimonator@JasonSobel @The_Masters I just calculated it and TIGER AND PHIL are playing together tomorrow!!! Too bad it isn't the final pairing.

Yup, I've calculated the same thing. Looks like they'll be in the seventh-to-last pairing in tomorrow's final round, around 1:45 (if they keep the same tee times as today) or possibly just a little bit later.

As I wrote earlier, not the first time this has happened.

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6:57 p.m. ET: Solid two-putt for Angel Cabrera to get into the clubhouse at 11-under with a 3-under 69 today.

I'm guessing that if you told Cabrera on Thursday morning that he'd shoot three sub-70 rounds in the first three days, he'd have taken it and ran.

Well ... maybe just walked at a slightly brisk pace.

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6:54 p.m. ET: Kenny Perry bangs a fade -- a fade! -- down the fairway. Chad Campbell is in the pine straw on the right.

Big approach shots coming up.

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6:53 p.m. ET: E-mail from Johnny in Las Cruces, N.M.:

Remember, the largest final round comeback at Augusta is 8 strokes. Tiger and Phil will be 7 back (at the most) tomorrow. Just sayin' ...

Could still be 8 with a birdie here by Perry, but I know what you're getting at. Even though Nick Faldo said he thinks the guys at 4-under still have a very good chance to win tomorrow, I'm not as optimistic.

It's not that these players are too far back; it's that there are too many others between them and the lead.

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6:50 p.m. ET: Unless Cabrera loses his putting touch, it won't be a double.

Great shot from near the pine straw to the middle of the green. He'll have a curling, uphill 40-footer from there, but a two-putt would keep him at 11-under and guarantee a spot in the final pairing -- unless Campbell holes out from the fairway ... which ain't happening.

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6:48 p.m. ET: E-mail from Jason in Lincoln, Neb.:

Way to Blog Jinx Cabrera. He's in the trees at 18, while Campbell birdies 17. Might not want to put that "Cabrera in final pairing" thing in pen just yet.

True, but remember the first-in, last-out rule. Even if Cabrera makes bogey, Campbell would have to make birdie to get into the final pairing. Now if Cabrera makes double, that's another story ...

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6:45 p.m. ET: Tweet, tweet ...

chrisandersonis@JasonSobel who seems to have more of the crowd - Campbell or Perry?

The patrons here are a little more appreciative of great shots than simply cheering on their faves like at other tourneys, but I do think Kenny Perry has a few more folks pulling for him. He's got the whole older-guy, nice-guy persona -- well-deserved -- and is viewed as a Ryder Cup hero, even though Campbell played on that team, as well.

All in all, of the players at T-9 or better, I think Perry would be the most popular winner from the fans.

Anyone think otherwise?

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6:42 p.m. ET: Kenny Perry from actually inside of Campbell's birdie putt ... and it doesn't drop for him.

Wow, would have been a big one.

Instead, Perry remains at 11-under, still tied for the lead with Cabrera, who just got a great kick out of the tall pines with his drive on 18.

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6:41 p.m. ET: Fantastic bounce-back for Chad Campbell on 17.

After making bogey at this hole in each of the previous two rounds, he hit a great approach and drained the slick 12-footer.

Campbell is back to 10-under with one hole to play.

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6:38 p.m. ET: Let's talk about the sixes.

Right now, there's a quartet of players at 6-under who are 5 behind the leaders, including Tim Clark, Todd Hamilton, Shingo Katayama and Rory Sabbatini.

Are they still in this?

Absolutely.

None of 'em may even need to go that low, either. A final-round 68 could do the trick, 67 would obviously be even better.

Of course, if Cabrera or Perry finish even better than 11-under, then they could be in trouble ...

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6:36 p.m. ET: Chad Campbell trying to atone for that double. Doesn't want an In-N-Out burger, right, Stewart?

Nice shot to pin-high on 17. Perry follows with a solid approach of his own. A pair of good birdie opportunities coming up.

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6:32 p.m. ET: This will be new territory for Cabrera in a final round.

When he won the U.S. Open two years ago at Oakmont, he played in the fifth-to-last pairing of the day, then hung out in the scoring trailer smoking cigarettes while watching the likes of Jim Furyk and Tiger Woods unable to catch him.

Will be interesting to see how he plays as a frontrunner -- or close to it, at least, depending on how things finish up today.

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6:30 p.m. ET: Remember what I wrote earlier about Angel Cabrera's proficiency on the course's final three holes?

Well, it's showing now, as he follows a par on 16 with a birdie on 17.

Cabrera is now tied for the lead with Perry. Going to take a really big number here on the final hole for him to not be in the final pairing tomorrow.

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6:29 p.m. ET: Ouch.

After not having a misstep for 15 holes today, Chad Campbell makes double-bogey on 16, dropping to solo third at 9-under.

Meanwhile, Kenny Perry posts a routine par and stays atop the leaderboard at 11-under with two to play.

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6:27 p.m. ET: Jim Furyk is in the clubhouse with the fifth 4-under 68 of the day.

He'll go into the final round at 8-under, likely in the second-to-last pairing.

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6:25 p.m. ET: Chad Campbell is making an absolute mess of things here on 16.

Short-sided himself in the bunker, left his first one in there and finally got out. But he'll have a difficult bogey-saving putt from there just to stay at 10-under.

That's huge. All of a sudden, Perry could take a bigger lead -- he's got a birdie attempt coming up -- and Campbell may be playing himself out of the final twosome tomorrow.

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6:24 p.m. ET: Almost just wiped out on a slippery floor while walking out of the restroom. Caught myself. Oh well, there goes my chance of owning this place.

Sorry, back to the action ...

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6:18 p.m.: Of those in the top-nine right now, everyone posted a birdie on 15 except Steve Stricker and Todd Hamilton ... and Kenny Perry and Chad Campbell.

The final twosome each just made par, which keeps their co-lead intact, but sort of loses a stroke on the rest of their competition. Doesn't look like a dropped stroke on the scorecard, but when most others are making birdie, that could come back to bite 'em.

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6:16 p.m.: E-mail from Jason in Washington, D.C.:

You forgot to mention one other reason Steve Stricker isn't going to win this tournament. First and last names, same first initial. The Curse of Sam Snead shall not be broken.

Very true.

And that's why David Chad Campbell does still have a chance to win this thing, very much in the same fashion of Tommy Charles Coody back in the day.

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6:13 p.m.: Tweet, tweet ...

sprasad@jasonsobel: No one else is putting it strongly, but they're just not coming back to the field. It's the top 4-5 players--and everyone else.

sprasad@JasonSobel: Have campbell and perry hit a bad shot yet? Fairways and greens, fairways and greens. At this rate, no one else has a chance.

I'd like to say you're right, but remember: It wasn't that long ago that everyone was ready to declare this a three-man race. Now we've got Furyk, Stricker, Katayama right in the mix, not to mention the guys at 6-under, too.

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6:08 p.m.: As predicted, a birdie for Angel Cabrera at No. 15. He's back to 10-under, a single shot behind the leaders and 2 clear of Jim Furyk, who just bogeyed 17.

Cabrera has played the last three holes in 1-under so far this week -- a birdie and five pars -- so don't be surprised if he claims a share of the lead before it's all said and done today, getting into the final pairing tomorrow.

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6:06 p.m.: Steve Stricker is off the course with a bogey-free 4-under 68 that has moved him into a share of fifth place for the moment.

Like I said earlier, dude can putt. When fingers start trembling on the back nine tomorrow, watch out for the guy with the smoothest stroke.

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6:01 p.m.: Haven't mentioned Sergio Garcia yet today.

He came into the round at 4-under, but has made five bogeys and now stands at 2-under, in a share of 22nd place with two holes to play.

Can't say it's surprising, considering Garcia's comments before the tournament.

"It would be nice, but I'm not expecting it this week," Garcia said earlier this week. "My putting doesn't feel great, and probably my head is not beautiful at the moment. But you know, we're trying to figure it out and see what I can do."

Without confidence, it's difficult to succeed at any event, but even more so here at Augusta National.

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5:57 p.m.: I know it's a few hours old now, but I've gotten a lot of questions on how Padraig Harrington made a quad on the second hole. Here's part of his interview with the BBC:

Q: What actually happened on the second?

A: I hit it left off the tee. I was hitting a hybrid and trying to get it down short right of the green. I backed off it, as I was afraid of hitting a root, and actually hit a tree in front of me. Ricocheted into a hazard, so I dropped it back where I had played it from. Hit the same tree again and this time it went into the water, so I went into the water and played it out of there. Back to the fairway. Nice five iron to the front edge. Played a poor chip to 12 feet and missed the putt.

Q: Do you think what might have been but for that as you would be sitting very pretty?

A: That's not always the case. Had I made birdie on the second, I might have played steady golf after that and not been as free as I was. Maybe I would have finished 4-under if I had turned a nine into a four but there would be loads of guys in the tournament if they all said that.

Q: But too much to ask now to win?

A: I would think so. It is a great course, a great course to lead on, but the three leaders are very comfortable leading from the front. Chad Campbell and Kenny Perry have a lot of form leading from the front and I don't believe they will all come back to me.

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5:51 p.m.: I mentioned earlier that Angel Cabrera doesn't exactly have a deft touch around the greens.

Well, there was your proof.

Pretty weak chip on 14 which stays well below the hole, then he misses the par save.

That's a bogey and Cabrera is now back to 9-under with four to play.

Long hitter like him, though, gotta believe a birdie -- at least -- is right around the corner on 15.

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5:46 p.m.: Big bounce-back hole for Kenny Perry.

After a pair of bogeys, he makes a two-putt birdie on 13. Meanwhile, Chad Campbell can only manage to save par and we have co-leaders once again at 11-under.

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5:41 p.m.: After a third-round score of 71 that left him in a share of 10th place at 4-under, Phil Mickelson spoke with Jim Nantz of CBS:

"[I need] a good round tomorrow. The golf course is receptive to that," Mickelson said. "For me to have a chance, it's going to take a 64 or 65. But I think it's out there."

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5:36 p.m.: Amen!

Jim Furyk successfully navigated his way around Amen Corner, going par-birdie-birdie, and has now added a third straight birdie at the par-5 15th, moving to 9-under for the tourney, just 2 shots behind Campbell.

So much for that three-man race.

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5:34 p.m.: Beware the Bogey Man.

You just can't get around Augusta National without making a few bad numbers.

Kenny Perry knows this well. After carding just a pair of bogeys in his first 46 holes, he's now made two more on back-to-back occasions here on 11 and 12.

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5:29 p.m.: From the Twitter account ...

brendankogrady@jasonsobel: Based on their play today, is there anybody currently in the -4 or -5 groups (top 10) that you like to make a move?

I always like the guys who haven't peaked yet, the ones we haven't been talking about for three days, those who just sort of quietly crept up and got into the mix.

He's now at 6-under -- not 4-under or 5-under -- but Steve Stricker certainly fits the profile. He's the best putter on the board right now. With three holes to play today, if he can come in at 7-under or so, perhaps he can get hot on the greens tomorrow.

Then again, Stricker has a history of fading when in contention on Sunday afternoon. Not exactly the greatest closer on Tour.

I see him staying close, but can't imagine him claiming the green jacket tomorrow afternoon.

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5:27 p.m.: Kenny Perry misses his par attempt and drops to 10-under, and is now tied for second with Angel Cabrera.

Chad Campbell can't capitalize, though, missing his makeable birdie effort to remain at 11-under.

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5:24 p.m.: Kenny Perry is starting to unravel a little bit.

After a bogey on 11, he's now got about a 15-footer to save par on 12.

Recent history would have told us that Chad Campbell should be the one struggling on the back-nine -- not Perry.

So far this week, Campbell is 10-under on the front-nine and 1-under on the back-nine.

Meanwhile, entering the 12th hole, Perry was 5-under on the front and 6-under on the back.

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5:21 p.m.: Fine. I lied. One more Tiger-related post ...

From Corey in Raleigh, N.C.:

Why has no one mentioned this yet? If things stay as they are, Tiger and Phil would play Sunday in the same pairing, correct? I don't know what's more exciting, seeing Campbell and Perry duke it out for the win or watching Tiger and Phil kill each other for who will win Sunday.

Actually, right now it would be Lee Westwood with Tiger and Hunter Mahan with Phil, but a lot can change between now and the end of the round.

Yes, they could be paired together, but it's not like this would be unprecedented.

Back in 2001, Woods led Mickelson by 1 and they played in the final pairing together. Tiger shot 68 to win; Phil shot 70 and finished solo third.

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5:17 p.m.: I promise, just one last, final thought on Tiger for the day -- well, for now, at least ...

From Matt in Wichita:

Although Tiger finished strong, the undoing of his round was the 11th and 12th holes. He missed a 5-foot par putt and then a 10-foot birdie putt. Instead of going through Amen Corner at 2-under, he went even-par. POOF! That's the sound of Tiger disappearing from Masters contention!!

You're right, but I think you could make that case for a certain stretch of holes during each of his three rounds. Woods has repeatedly wasted good shots and missed opportunities this week. If he ever goes back and watches these rounds again, he'll be kicking himself for not shooting three opening rounds of 68, if not 66.

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5:15 p.m.: Bill Macatee of CBS just interviewed Tiger Woods:

On today's round: "Today is as hard as I've ever fought to get a score out of it. ... Got off to just a terrible start at 1, but fought back and got myself back in it."

On what was lacking: "Well, I didn't shoot 64 or 63 today -- actually I did, just had to play a couple more holes -- just wasn't comfortable for some reason. Hopefully tomorrow I'll have it."

On whether he can still win: "If [the leaders] go run off and hide, shoot 3-, 4-under, it's going to be hard for us to go out and get 'em."

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5:10 p.m.: For the first time this week, Tiger Woods makes par on the final hole.

Good scramble for par, but a third-round 70 leaves him at 4-under and currently 8 behind Perry, in a share of eighth place. After starting with double-bogey, he was sort of playing catch-up throughout the day.

If I was forced to venture a guess right now, I'd put my money on TW finishing maybe solo fourth or T-3 at the end of tomorrow.

It'll look good in the record books, but he'll remember this week for all of the missed opportunities.

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5:07 p.m.: Yikes.

Tiger did about as well as he could with that chip, hitting it short of the green and letting it release, but it rolled about 8 feet past the hole.

BIG par comebacker for Woods. At least it's uphill.

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5:03 p.m.: Tiger Woods with 163 yards into the final hole ... and he airmails the green.

Again.

On four different occasions in his career, this green has been the site of Woods raising his arms in triumph after claiming a Masters title, but here's guessing he won't leave this week with too many favorable memories. He's made a mess of this hole every day and now will need a nifty chip coming up just to save par.

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5:01 p.m.: If any of the contenders are watching those big hand-operated scoreboards on the course, they're not liking what they're seeing right now.

That's because Kenny Perry has just birdied the 10th hole to move to 12-under. He's now up by 1 on Chad Campbell and 2 on Angel Cabrera. No one else is closer than 6.

That thing I wrote about this being a three-man tourney? Becoming more true by the minute.

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4:55 p.m. ET: A little while ago, I wrote that Tiger Woods would be ecstatic coming home with a score of 2-under on the last three holes.

Well, he's halfway there.

After a par on 16, TW makes birdie on 17 for the first time this week.

Now comes the dreaded 18th, on which he's posted bogey-bogey in the first two rounds.

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4:53 p.m. ET: Is this turning into a three-man race?

Angel Cabrera posts a birdie on No. 10 to move to 10-under, a single shot behind the co-leaders. He's been dead-on since making bogey on the opening hole.

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4:51 p.m. ET: I know it was on 15 and not 18, but the length of the putt and the camera angle on TV both made Phil Mickelson's birdie putt a minute ago look nearly exact to the one he made to win the 2004 edition of the Masters.

No 3-inch leap this time, though. Only a small fist-pump as Lefty moves to 5-under with three holes to play.

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4:47 p.m. ET: Of the players in the top-20 on the leaderboard right now, three are at even-par (Rory Sabbatini, Vijay Singh, Geoff Ogilvy) and only two (Todd Hamilton, Anthony Kim) are over par, both at 1-over.

Interestingly enough, if you were to have asked me to pick five of the top-20 before the day who wouldn't take advantage, Hamilton is the only one of these five who would have made my list.

Singh and Ogilvy are major champs and Sabbatini and Kim have played well in majors before. Sort of surprising to see those four struggling today, as compared with the rest of the field.

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4:42 p.m. ET: E-mail from Todd in Florida:

Do you see Ian Poulter pushing into the top-five by tomorrow's back nine?

Could very well happen. He's a guy who tends to play some of his best golf in the final round, as evidenced by last year's British Open, when he finished in solo second place.

Poulter shot a 4-under 68 today -- making only one bogey -- and is now in a share of ninth place. He'd love to see the wind start blowing and things get much more difficult here this afternoon, but it doesn't look as if that's going to happen. But sure, Poulter could definitely move into the top-five by end-of-day tomorrow.

And, thankfully, we're not wearing the same thing today. Whew.

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4:34 p.m. ET: Wait a second … it could be … it might be …

Is that a pulse from Tiger Woods?

Since posting an entry about his poor performance on par-5s, TW has birdied both 13 and 15.

(You're welcome, Tiger.)

He's now at 1-under for the day and 3-under for the tournament. Still 8 back and in a share of 15th place, but those green jacket chances are barely, yet stubbornly clutching to life.

Here's where we'll learn a lot, though.

So far this week, Woods has played the last three holes in 2-over, making par each day on 16 and 17, and bogey each day on 18.

If he can come home in 2-under, he'd be ecstatic -- and very well could be back in the mix.

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4:31 p.m. ET: Already discussed how Kenny Perry and Chad Campbell have fared better on the par-5 holes than Tiger woods this week. Well, Campbell just went one up in that category on his playing partner.

Chad "Don't Call Me Dave" just birdied No. 8 as Perry countered with only par and we're deadlocked atop the leaderboard once again.

Angel Cabrera made a birdie on that hole right in front of them, so he's 2 back at 9-under and Tim Clark just made the turn at 7-under. Jim Furyk and Steve Stricker are each at 6-under, with a gaggle of dudes one shot further back.

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4:18 p.m. ET: Good question from Kyle in Toronto:

Is saying that Mickelson (eight shots back with 24 to play) is still in the hunt while Tiger (nine back with 23 to play) is finished defensible?

Ummm … yes?

OK, maybe not. Perhaps TW is on life support instead. (Of course, when I said his chances were over, he was 10 back, but anyway …)

Then again, maybe my defense of those statements just took place a minute ago, as Mickelson holed his birdie putt on No. 13 to move back to 4-under. He's 2 shots up on Woods once again, which isn't that much but seems like a lot on such a tightly-bunched leaderboard.

I do reserve the right to resuscitate Woods' chances, but for now they're on a respirator -- maybe not much worse off than those of Phil, but still worse nonetheless.

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4:13 p.m. ET: I have no idea how to analyze this. Because it makes no sense.

With the course playing as it is, with very good scoring conditions and weather barely a factor, I would think fairways and greens in reg percentages would be pretty high, meaning that the best putters would have an advantage.

And yet …

Perry, Campbell and Cabrera are all notoriously mediocre putters. All guys who can get streaky at times, but hardly the cream of the crop when it comes to the flatstick.

Those right behind them, including Tim Clark and Steve Stricker, seem to make more sense due to their proficiency on the greens.

Like I wrote, I can't explain it, but that is what's going on right now.

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4:08 p.m. ET: Twitter Jinx?

From the latest set of tweets …

Rjproie@JasonSobel -- Kenny Perry only has two bogeys, both in the first round, the entire tourney so far. Campbell has five. That's amazing.

Perry has now played 26 holes without a bogey, dating back to the 16th hole on Thursday. Since then, he's made seven birdies and 19 pars.

Actually, make that 20. Nice lag putt on No. 7. He'll tap in for par to remain at 11-under.

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4:05 p.m. ET: After a front nine in which he was the picture of patience, making birdie on the two par-5s and par on the other seven holes for a 2-under 34, Phil Mickelson has started bogey-bogey on the back.

That drops him to 3-under, still in a share of 16th place. Not out of it by any means, but with such a tightly packed leaderboard, players can fall pretty far with a few bogeys.

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4:02 p.m. ET: Ummm … Reverse Blog Jinx?

As soon as I mention that note, Tiger Woods two-putts the 13th green to make birdie. That's 5-under on the par-5s through 11 holes now this week.

But I'm still not retracting the "stick a fork in him" statement. Standing by that claim.

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3:51 p.m. ET: Tiger Woods is now playing his third par-5 of the day, the 13th hole. If we want to point a finger as to what's been wrong with his game this week, other than missing a ton of putts by inches, he's failed to capitalize on the par-5s.

So far this week, he's 4-under after playing 10 par-5 holes. Here's the breakdown:

• No. 2: Par-par-par
• No. 8: Par-birdie-par
• No. 13: Birdie-par
• No. 15: Birdie-birdie

Let's take a look at his record on Augusta's par-5 holes throughout his career:

• 2008: 4-under
• 2007: 9-under
• 2006: 6-under
• 2005: 6-under*
• 2004: 5-under
• 2003: 4-under
• 2002: 7-under*
• 2001: 9-under*
• 2000: 12-under
• 1999: 6-under
• 1998: 8-under
• 1997: 13-under*
(* won tournament)

Obviously, Woods hasn't taken advantage of these holes as much in recent years as in earlier in his career. Is it due to him not hitting the ball as far anymore? Or is this a byproduct of the "Tigerproofing" of the course?

Whatever the case, it's not an advantage for him anymore. By comparison, Perry and Campbell have each played one fewer par-5 than Woods this week and are each 6-under as compared with his 4-under.

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3:37 p.m. ET: Bogey for Tiger Woods on No. 11.

That puts him 10 behind the leader with 25 holes to play, back into a share of 26th place.

And for the first time, I'm ready to call it …

Stick a fork in him. It's all over.

That's right. At exactly 3:37 p.m. on Saturday afternoon, Tiger Woods' chances at a fifth career green jacket have died an untimely, unfortunate death. He's too far back and has too many players between him and the lead. Still wouldn't surprise me to see him pull a back-door top-10 tomorrow afternoon, but his title contention bid is over and done.

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3:35 p.m. ET: Wow. Great putt by Kenny Perry, as he sinks about a 25-foot left-to-right big breaker for birdie on the fourth hole to move into sole possession of the lead at 11-under.

Perry has always been a great ball-striker, but his bugaboo is his short game. In his four victories in the past year (in his last 20 starts), though, Perry has been rolling the rock much better. If he continues to putt like this, he'll be right there at the end, because his ball-striking isn't going anywhere.

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3:32 p.m. ET: Here comes Steve Stricker!

With birdies on each of his last three holes, Stricker is now at 3-under for the day through seven holes and 6-under for the tournament, in a share of fourth place.

Been an interesting year for Stricker so far. He's been in serious contention on three separate final rounds, but -- how should I put it? -- hasn't exactly stepped up to the occasion, finishing second, third and fourth. Will be interesting to see if he can become a closer if he's still in contention tomorrow afternoon.

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3:25 p.m. ET: Well, it took eight holes, but Tiger Woods has finally made up for that opening double-bogey.

With a birdie on No. 3, then five straight pars and a birdie on 9, he made the turn at even-par and has just added another par on 10.

I'm still thinking it's too little, too late.

TW will likely be thinking eagle on each of the back-nine par-5s, but that's easier said than done; he's already made par on both par-5s on the front side.

Trying to find this research and will post when I do, but it certainly seems like Woods is struggling more on Augusta's par-5 holes this week than ever before.

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3:19 p.m. ET: E-mail from Anthony in Germantown, Md.:

Not to be insulting, but the top of the leaderboard hasn't totally bought into the fitness kick.

You're right. For as much of an impact as Tiger Woods has had in gyms around the PGA Tour, Campbell, Perry, Cabrera, Hamilton and Clark are hardly workout warriors.

And they're OK with that, too.

"I don't really work out," Perry said after yesterday's round. "I can't really say I'm working out or anything like that. And I don't really watch what I eat, but yet, it's working. So I haven't changed anything."

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3:16 p.m. ET: OK, way, way ahead of ourselves ...

Cabrera holes a nice putt on No. 3 to move to 8-under.

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3:13 p.m. ET: Par-birdie start for each of our leaders and Chad Campbell and Kenny Perry are now 3 strokes clear of Angel Cabrera and Todd Hamilton.

Last year, Trevor Immelman and Brandt Snedeker were paired together during each weekend round and here's guessing Campbell and Perry would love to have a similar occurrence this time around. If they can make this a head-to-head battle and eliminate most of the other contenders, it could turn into match play on the back nine Sunday -- but that's getting way ahead of ourselves.

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3:07 p.m. ET: I don't know if we've turned a corner in the technological advances or what, but I'm actually getting more tweets than e-mails right now. Anyway, here's one of the latest ...

jsermo@jasonsobel what do you like to be the score at the end of rd 3, im thinking something like -7.

Noooo -- will definitely be better than that. We've got two players in the lead at 9-under. I don't see both of them shooting 74 or worse and Angel Cabrera shooting 73 or worse.

My best guess is at least 9- or 10-under. If Campbell or Perry has a decent round, it could even be a few strokes better than that. At the beginning of the week, I predicted a final winning score of 11- or 12-under and that could be right on target.

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3:01 p.m. ET: Another ESPNEWS interview. Back to the blog in a few minutes ...

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2:58 p.m. ET: E-mail from Jeannette in Parts Unknown:

Give me Sandy Lyle and Larry Mize total combined score today vs. Tiger and Padraig for an egg salad sandwich.

Can you imagine someone even thinking of such an offer at the beginning of the week?

Right now, Lyle (1-over) and Mize (even) are leading Tiger (1-over) and Padraig (2-over) by 2 strokes.

But you know what? I'll take you up on that wager.

Besides, the egg salad sandwiches are free in the media center. I can afford that bet.

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2:50 p.m. ET: Rough start for Angel Cabrera, who took a bogey on No. 1.

"El Pato" can succeed here because he hits the ball a ton, leaving shorter irons and wedges into the greens, and also hits it high, meaning he can take a little more aim at the flagsticks than others.

Then again, he hits it all over the yard and isn't known as the world's greatest putter. Not exactly the usual traits of a Masters champion.

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2:45 p.m. ET: First spy report of the day ...

Reigning LPGA Championship winner Yani Tseng is on site here at Augusta National. She left Orlando at 3 a.m. -- a friend drove; she slept -- and when she got to the course, the first thing she did was touch the grass.

"I wish I had my clubs so I could play," Tseng told the spy. "I really want to play."

Interesting note: Tseng just recently bought Annika Sorenstam's house in Orlando. When asked how she did it, she said, "I am broke!"

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2:39 p.m. ET: First Twitter post of the day (besides the one from Stewart Cink) ...

McFads@jasonsobel thx for keeping us updated at the masters. Great work. I'm thinking AK could give another charge today. 23 yrs old and no presur

I'm tellin' ya, nothing surprises me with Anthony Kim anymore. He could follow up yesterday's 65 with another 65 ... or an 85. I would not be shocked either way.

I will say this much about AK, as I mentioned earlier: The better the scores, the better his chances. What I mean by that is, if the course plays tough and par is a good score, he'll have a tough time remaining patient and not trying to take chances. But if birdies are out there to be made -- and it appears they are, to an extent -- he can freewheel and go for broke again.

Kim plays a risk/reward style that always includes lots of red numbers and a handful of bigger ones.

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2:37 p.m. ET: Judging by the scores, it appears Augusta National is playing neither too difficult nor too easy today.

The best score of the day so far is 3-under (Steve Flesch), while the worst is just 4-over, though it looks like Mike Weir is about to drop another stroke or two any minute now.

Of course, there's still so much golf left to be played, both for those on the course and the final group, which has yet to even tee off. I would expect a much larger discrepancy between first and last by day's end.

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2:32 p.m. ET: I mentioned this stat in yesterday's blog, but it's worth revisiting today.

Here's the list of where Masters champions since 1979 stood entering Round 3 of their victories:

• Led or shared lead: 8
• 2nd through 5th: 17
• 6th through 10th: 2
• 11th through 20th: 2
• 21st through 30th: 1

Based on these numbers -- if you want to go simply by recent history -- those in the top five have a better chance than Chad Campbell or Kenny Perry in the lead or anyone T-6 or below entering the day. That leaves Angel Cabrera, Todd Hamilton and Tim Clark as the leading contenders. I'm just sayin' ...

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2:24 p.m. ET: Fun stuff on 12 a few seconds ago.

Andres Romero was next to a stone wall up on top of the hill behind the green. Got a free drop and pitched one from amongst the azaleas, leaving it barely short of the green, then chipped on and tapped in for bogey.

He's 3-over for the tourney, but 4-over on the 12th hole alone. Here's guessing the second-time competitor has found his least favorite hole on this course.

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2:21 p.m. ET: Serial Twitterer Stewart Cink MC'd yesterday and since then has only offered up one tweet, though it was a pretty strong one ...

stewartcinkHeaded back to Atlanta after unsuccessful Masters. Started back nine with Inn-N-Out Burger: Double Double.

Can't say I've ever heard that one before. I like it.

I'm checking the Twitter account as well as the inbox, so feel free to hit me there at username JasonSobel and I'll post some of these throughout the day.

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2:15 p.m. ET: After shooting a second-round 76 yesterday, Sean O'Hair now has one of the day's best rounds going. He's 2-under through 11 holes.

And O'Hair may be bettering that number soon, as he knocked his tee shot to about 10-12 feet on the 12th hole.

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2:11 p.m. ET: Looking at the big guys, Tiger Woods is back to 1-over for his round, having apparently righted the ship a bit after his poor start, playing the last three holes (Nos. 3-5) in birdie-par-par.

Meanwhile, Phil Mickelson remains at 4-under, making back-to-back pars after his birdie on No. 2.

Leads to this e-mail from Brent in Fort Collins, Colo.:

I realize Tiger is a big story ... and he's not out of it yet. However, it seems like everyone has forgotten about Phil Mickelson. He's been solid and is much more of a threat at this point than Tiger.

Well, I disagree and I agree. Not sure who "everyone" is that has "forgotten" about Mickelson, but he's very much in contention right now and a major storyline that I'll be tracking throughout the day. That said, I do agree with you on the point that Phil is a bigger threat than Tiger right now. At 3 strokes better on the leaderboard, that's the difference between T-6 and T-26.

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2:01 p.m. ET: One more ESPNEWS interview. Click on over. Back to the blog in a few ...

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1:58 p.m. ET: After shooting a back-nine 32 that brought him from possible MC into contention, Phil Mickelson has started par-birdie to move to 4-under and into a spot in sixth place with a half-dozen other guys.

Remember, this is a guy with two green jackets in the last five years.

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1:45 p.m. ET: We're exactly one hour away from the final pairing teeing off. Time to make my latest selection -- or Blog Jinx, as the case may be -- as to whom will be leading or close to it by the end of the day.

In fact, lemme just quickly run through the top 10 on the leaderboard with some stream of consciousness thoughts ...

Chad Campbell: Has played his best golf already, will be tough to keep it going. Kind of reminds me of Trevor Immelman, though -- solid ball striker, average putter who can get really streaky.

Kenny Perry: Watch out. I've always liked guys who have already accomplished career goals. Perry wanted nothing more than to play in last year's Ryder Cup and help the U.S. to a win. Now that he's done that, it sort of feels like he's playing with house money.

Angel Cabrera: Another house money guy. Won his major title two years ago at Oakmont. Not the greatest putter, but nothing phases him either. Intriguing possibility.

Todd Hamilton: I don't see it happening. In fact, I'll go out on a limb right now and say that he'll have trouble making next year's field, into which players will qualify by finishing T-16 or better.

Tim Clark: Keeps plodding along. The higher the scores, the better off he is; guy is a par machine. If he has to go low, it may not happen.

Jim Furyk: Not in top form coming in, but has found his game this week. I'm still a bit skeptical as to whether it will last, though you can't count out a guy of his pedigree.

Sergio Garcia: In a Golf Channel interview after yesterday's round, he discussed his lack of confidence coming in. He never expected to be in this position. He'll need to gain some confidence if he wants to stay up here.

Shingo Katayama: Cowboy hat and green jacket? Would be a great look. But he hasn't done much in majors since the 2001 PGA Championship; can't imagine he'll seriously contend the next two days.

Anthony Kim: Any guy who makes 11 birdies at Augusta National is worth keeping an eye on. OK, two eyes. If he can cut down on his mistakes, he'll be right there in the mix.

Rory Sabbatini: First mention in the Live Blog all week! Seemingly came out of nowhere with a strong Friday finish. Has been here before (T-2 in 2007); if he gains some momentum, could be really hot.

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1:40 p.m. ET: Just spoke with Mark Morgan on ESPNEWS and he mentioned how it's become a numbers game for Tiger Woods. At 9 strokes back with 34 holes to play (he just made par on the second after driving into the tall pines), it seems like he might be running out of time.

I countered with the notion that it's a numbers game, but in a different way.

If TW was 9 back but there was only one other player between him and the lead, I'd say he was still very much in contention. Instead, Woods is mired in a share of 31st place, meaning an awful lot of players will have to make an awful lot of mistakes over the next two rounds for him to seriously get back into contention.

One other note on Tiger: He's now played the par-5 second hole three times ... and taken a par each day. Remember when he used to be a lock for birdie on these holes and almost disappointed if he didn't make eagle? That's not the case anymore.

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1:28 p.m. ET: Gotta go do an ESPNEWS interview. Click on over. Back to the blog in a few ...

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1:22 p.m. ET: Augusta National isn't playing overly difficult today, as evidenced by the 10 players currently under par in their rounds.

And yet, it's not exactly playing easy, either.

Already a few favorites to make a jump on the leaderboard have instead taken a terrible tumble. Padraig Harrington, seeking his third straight major victory, carded a quadruple-bogey 9 on the par-5 second hole to fall from 2-under to 2-over.

Meanwhile, Tiger Woods opened with a double-bogey on No. 1, missing the fairway, missing the green and three-putting. That leaves him now 9 shots behind the leaders. Insurmountable? Not yet ... but it's getting there.

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1:14 p.m.: Since you're already starting to ask ... I went with the turkey club, fries and sweet tea.

Coolest part was having a table in the corner, right next to the display case which contains a single club from every past Masters champion. Some of the more interesting ones? Cary Middlecoff's wood-shafted putter and 1-irons from Arnold Palmer and Sandy Lyle.

There are only two drivers on display -- one is Tiger Woods' from (I believe) his first win in 1997; the other is Trevor Immelman's from last year. The latter, sitting on top of the middle row in the case, makes the older club look like an 11-wood.

All that's missing is a sign: "Dear Champions: In case of poor performance, break glass."

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1:09 p.m. ET: Just a quick housekeeping note from Round 2, since a lot of e-mailers are still inquiring as to what happened with the Rory McIlroy ruling yesterday.

As I've come to understand it, the 19-year-old was hitting from a bunker on 18, left his shot in the trap, and then kicked the sand in disgust. He later made triple-bogey on the hole, but did not take any sort of penalty for "testing the playing surface" of the hazard. This was then brought to the attention of Augusta National officials after he had signed his scorecard and left the course.

When tournament organizers tried to contact McIlroy, they had a wrong number. It took a while for them to get in touch with the player, then he had to return to the course and discuss the matter. After four hours, however, it was finally resolved that he was not in violation of the Rules of Golf.

Here's the statement from competitions committee chairman Fred Ridley:

The Rules of Golf (13-4) prohibit a player from testing the condition of a hazard before playing a stroke in the hazard.

The decisions interpreting the rule state that kicking the ground in the hazard constitutes testing the condition.

However, the rules allow the player to smooth sand or soil in the hazard after making a stroke provided that, with regard to his next stroke, nothing is done to improve the position or lie of his ball, the area of his intended swing, his line of play or a reasonable extension of his line beyond the hole or the area in which he is to drop or place a ball.

At the request of the committee McIlroy returned to the club at approximately 8.40 p.m. ET, met with the committee and reviewed the CBS tape.

Based on the tape and Mr. McIlroy's statement of what had taken place after he played the shot, it was determined that no violation of the rules had occurred.

At 1-over entering the round, McIlroy made the cut and teed off with defending champion Trevor Immelman at 10:55 a.m. ET this morning.

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1 p.m. ET: Just another beautiful day in paradise here at Augusta National Golf Club.

After a torrential downpour and thunderstorm last night, it's about 70-75 degrees and sunny today. Perfect scoring conditions -- especially considering the fairways and greens have softened up from the rain.

Tiger Woods tees off in exactly five minutes; he starts the weekend 7 strokes behind leaders Kenny Perry and Chad Campbell, each of whom will tee off in the final pairing at 2:45 p.m. ET this afternoon.

As for me, I'm rested, refreshed and ready to go. Just had lunch in the Augusta National grille room -- one of the greatest perks of covering the event is having access to the clubhouse -- so I won't even need to stop for a minute to down a green-wrappered sandwich for at least another hour or so. (OK, maybe 45 minutes.)

As always, hit me at the above address with questions, comments, suggestions, complaints and anything else dealing with Round 3 of the Masters. Let's get going ...