ESPN Golf

The 2006 FBR Open was the coming-out party for bomb-and-gouge golf, what with J.B. Holmes smacking his tee ball an average of 320 yards on every drive (not just the measured ones) and winning by seven strokes. His massive power caused reactionaries around the globe to suggest lengthening courses, narrowing fairways, growing longer rough, rolling back the ball and reverting to persimmon woods with hickory shafts all in the name of stopping the revolution that was going to end the game as we know it. But one year later, there has been no revolution. In fact, Holmes hasn't won again, and didn't have another top-10 finish until this year's Mercedes-Benz Championship.

Putting, not distance, is the best performance indicator at the FBR Open. And if you have a career-best putting week while hitting the ball monstrous distances you're going to make short work of the par-71 course that plays to 7,216 yards. Holmes was tied for first in total putts and T-8 in putts per GIR during his 21-under 263 last year. Those numbers don't correspond with his seasonal averages, where he finished T-158 in putts per GIR and 174th in putts per round. In fact, with the exception of Jonathan Kaye in 2004, each of the last 10 winners of the FBR Open has finished in the top 10 in putts per greens in regulation. Eight of the last 10 (discounting Phil Mickelson in 2005 and Vijay Singh in 2003) were in the top 10 in total putts.

The other key to success at the TPC-Scottsdale is to play well on the tough stretch of holes (basically holes 4 through 12), because most everybody is going to dominate the easy holes. From 2002 to 2006, holes 5, 7, 11 and 12 have played to an over-par average every year. The 6th and 8th have been over par four times, the 4th and 9th over par three times and the 10th over par twice. The rest of the course doesn't match up. (Granted Nos. 14 and 18 haven't been pushovers, but the 14th is sandwiched by a pair of easy par-5s giving the impression of an simple stretch of holes and No. 18 will never be mistaken for one of the tougher finishing holes on tour.) Since the year 2000, every winner has been under par on holes 4-12 while shooting at least 10-under par on the others:

FBR Open champions since 2000
Year	Player	Holes 1-3, 13-18	Holes 4-12
2006	J.B. Holmes	-16	-5
2005	Phil Mickelson	-13	-4
2004	Jonathan Kaye	-12	-7
2003	Vijay Singh	-14	-9
2002	Chris DiMarco	-16	-2
2001	Mark Calcavecchia	-21	-7
2000	Tom Lehman	-11	-3

Also debunking the myth that Scottsdale is a masher's haven is the list of diverse winners in the last seven years. The long-hitting Mickelson torched the course for an 11-under 60 in the second round of 2005, but so did the relatively pedestrian Calcavecchia in 2001. Last year, J.J. Henry, never to be confused with the muscular bombers, shot 61 en route to a tie for second. And if you need more proof you don't have to be a big hitter to succeed in Phoenix, Justin Leonard has been a perennial contender, even finishing T-7 a year ago.

With such low scores in the past, can we see someone break 60 this week? It's possible. The three par-5 holes do yield eagles and there are some short par-4s (Andrew Magee even aced on the 332-yard 17th a few years back). And the cold Arizona winter has kept the rough from growing much beyond three inches. If this course doesn't have any defenses such as a desert breeze (it's not supposed to be very warm in Phoenix this week and it could rain), a 59 could be in the equation.

Phil Mickelson: When he's on his game, and he certainly hasn't been in 2007, Lefty can go low with anyone. Playing for the third straight week, he's likely to have all the kinks ironed out and the positive memories of wins in 1996 and 2005 can't hurt.

Charles Howell III: Every year it seems someone has a few great weeks early but doesn't win, only to follow up with a victory before the West Coast swing ends. Last year it was Rory Sabbatini, who was second in Hawaii and Pebble only to win the Nissan Open. In 2005 David Toms was fourth at Phoenix, then won the Match Play. Three years ago Mike Weir had a T-5 and a T-4 before winning at Nissan. I'll pick Howell, who was second at the Sony and the Buick to continue that trend.

Mark Calcavecchia: Or after Calc finished T-8 and T-4 the last two weeks and with three career titles in Scottsdale, he could be the one who turns the trick.

Trevor Immelman: Tied for 20th a year ago after four 69s, Immelman opted to stay in the U.S. instead of going over to play the Middle Eastern swing on the European Tour like so many other international stars. He could benefit greatly from that decision.