Ogilvy shines bright in PGA Tour opener

Updated: January 12, 2009, 5:57 PM ET

Let's say, just for argument's sake, that you're one of those "glass half empty" people, always looking at the world through gray-colored glasses. This would likely be your assessment of the PGA Tour's season-opening Mercedes-Benz Championship: "The world's top four players didn't show up, there was no drama because Geoff Ogilvy won by 6 strokes and, to be honest with you, I was too enamored with the NFL playoffs to even click over during commercials."

Geoff Ogilvy

AP Photo/Eric Risberg

Geoff Ogilvy's win at the Mercedes Championship is the fifth PGA Tour victory of his career.

Fair enough. But you can have your opinion and I, playing the role of ultimate optimist, will have mine. Just think of me as the guy who always thinks birdie is possible -- even after half a dozen consecutive triple-bogeys.

Here's my take: There's no better sight than whale-watching and witnessing the world's best golfers from the comforts of the couch in midwinter. Oh, and the world's top four may need to make room in that group for Ogilvy and co-runner-up Anthony Kim, both of whom are knocking on the door.

That doesn't mean that Ogilvy can -- or should -- rest easy after victory. This week's edition of the Weekly 18 begins with the notion that he should have mixed emotions about his triumph at Kapalua.

1
The Good, the Bad and the Aussie

The good news for Ogilvy? He won the Mercedes-Benz Championship. The bad news? He won the Mercedes-Benz Championship.

I'm guessing Ogilvy isn't complaining about the seven-figure paycheck, the brand new Mercedes-Benz SL550 and perhaps the best perk: a guaranteed trip back to Kapalua at this time next year. But there's another dividend that comes with the victory that isn't so desirable. It's a sense of complacency, which has hampered all recent winners of this tournament.

The eight previous MBC champions have combined to win a grand total of three events during the remainder of the season following their victories -- none more than once. We have to go all the way back to Tiger Woods in 2000 to find a player who parlayed this title into a major championship triumph later in the year.

Simple coincidence or the byproduct of the serene inner peace that comes with knowing a yearlong goal has already been reached by the second week of January? Daniel Chopra, who won last year's event in a playoff but never finished better than T-14 in 26 subsequent tourneys, argues that only good things can come from winning the opener.

"It frees you up for the rest of the year and puts you in a good position," Chopra said this week. "It got me in a lot of the majors and the World Golf Championships. So in that regard, it was very important."

If there's anyone who can bust the slump of recent Kapalua kings, it's Ogilvy. He still doesn't receive nearly enough credit for winning the foible-riddled 2006 U.S. Open, and now owns four top-tier titles among his five career PGA Tour wins. Ogilvy was equally -- if not more -- excited about claiming the Australian PGA Championship last month.

"My goals at the start of the year were fairly simple: I mean, I want to win golf tournaments and I want to contend in majors and win majors, obviously," said Ogilvy, who carded an eagle and 27 birdies en route to a 24-under-par total this week. "To win a golf tournament the first week -- what do I say? I've been traditionally a horrible starter on the West Coast. ... So to win the first week is really, really nice and it gives me a great feeling for the rest of the year."

Don't expect that feeling to dissipate for Ogilvy like it has for so many other MBC winners in recent years.

Three Up

2 Sean O'Hair. He doesn't have a major victory like Trevor Immelman. He isn't beloved by fans and media like Anthony Kim or Camilo Villegas. He's not ranked as highly as Justin Rose or Andres Romero.

For all the fanfare being foisted, fairly or not, on the world's most talented 20-somethings these days, O'Hair's name sometimes falls through the cracks. But it's time to stop overlooking the winner of two PGA Tour events. He showed as much this week, finishing alone in fourth place at the Mercedes, thanks to a sublime bogey-free final-round 65 -- perhaps a sign of even bigger things to come this season.

Just 26, O'Hair may be poised for a breakthrough year that could include a major championship contention, a few victories and a spot on the United States' Presidents Cup roster. He's certainly starting off on the right foot.

"Coming into this week, I felt very good about my game and where I'm headed," said O'Hair, who had three top-three results last season, including his victory at the erstwhile PODS Championship. "I think this is proof that I'm headed in the right direction and I just have to feed it into next week. ... You know, I feel like I'm working on the right things with my coach, and I feel like I'm a little bit smarter and a little more seasoned."

Barack Obama and Parker McLachlin

The McLachlin Family

From left to right, Spencer McLachlin (Parker's brother), Cynthia Barbosa (Spencer's girlfriend), Barack Obama, Beth McLachlin (Parker and Spencer's mother), Parker McLachlin, Chris McLachlin (Parker and Spencer's father), Kristy McLachlin (Parker's wife). The McLachlin's know president-elect Obama because Chris coached the future 44th president in basketball during high school.

3 Parker McLachlin A T-24 result at Kapalua -- where he previously had helped out tourney organizers by competing in the pro-am without being qualified for the main event -- wasn't enough to put McLachlin on the "Three Up" ledger, but his Mercedes-Benz Championship debut isn't the reason he's listed here.

This week the reigning Reno-Tahoe Open champ returns to his home course of Waialae CC, where he caddied during his formative years. If you're seeking a sleeper selection (not to mention a sentimental one), you could do a lot worse than McLachlin, who finished T-10 there a year ago. That's probably good enough to make this list on its own, but as Billy Mays or Vince from the Shamwow ads might crow, "But wait! There's more!"

McLachlin recently played pickup hoops with Barack Obama during the president-elect's trip to the Aloha State. How'd it happen? He simply contacted Obama's high school basketball coach at the Punahou School ... who also happens to be McLachlin's father, Chris.

And then there's this: During the six events that McLachlin plays on the PGA Tour's West Coast swing, he will donate $50 for every birdie to the Hawaii State Junior Golf Association, with Waikoloa Beach Resort matching that donation.

In case you're wondering, McLachlin ranked 130th on Tour with 3.26 birdies per round in 2008. (He posted 17 birdies at Kapalua.) At that pace, if McLachlin makes every cut he would donate $4,100, with that total matched by Waikoloa. Additional contributions can be made at www.hsjga.org.

4 FBR Open's 16th hole

It has long been the scene of the wildest party on the PGA Tour, but the par-3 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale is about to get even bigger. It was announced this week that with the addition of 3,000 bleacher seats behind and to the right of the green, No. 16 will become the first "stadium golf hole" on the PGA Tour.

I know some golf purists who acknowledged this news with a hearty harrumph as their briefs became even more constricting -- and I'll allow that this idea wouldn't work at every Tour venue -- but let's loosen up and have some fun, people.

16th hole at the FBR Open

Mark J. Rebilas/US Presswire

Expect the always-loud 16th hole at the FBR Open to be even more boisterous in 2009 as tournament organizers swelled the seating capacity to nearly 20,000 for this year's event.

I know getting drunk, yelling obscenities (especially during a player's backswing) and hurling unidentified flying objects onto the field of play aren't becoming in a sport that traditionally offers benign, reserved galleries. But in this situation, the positives far outweigh the negatives. At a time when any non-Tiger tourney needs as many fans as it can get, the FBR is playing its biggest drawing card by offering seating at its most famous hole for up to 20,000 fans at any given time.

Hope they have room for 20,001. Yours truly will be on location in three weeks for a special non-major edition of the Live Blog. Just try to refrain from hurling those objects in my direction.

Three Down

5 Adam Scott. Unlike a team-sport athlete, professional golfers aren't restricted in their off-course activities by any sort of contract clauses. It's one of the best perks of the job, really. Players do whatever they want whenever they want, and answer to no one. Because of that, I would never begrudge a golfer for having interests outside of the professional arena. Davis Love III rides motorcycles, Tiger Woods scuba dives, Sergio Garcia plays soccer.

And they're not alone; you won't find a guy on Tour who lacks other athletic interests. More power to 'em. If an injury happens during one of these activities -- Chris DiMarco's fall while skiing a few years ago is just one of many that come to mind -- they have only themselves to blame and no one to whom they must apologize.

That said, I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around Adam Scott's continued fervor for other athletic endeavors. He was recently forced to withdraw from the Australian Open after injuring his knee while running from the water onto the shore of a beach. The injury was a dislocated kneecap, which Scott said first happened when he was in high school and he has since endured on five more occasions. Entering the Mercedes-Benz Championship, he said the knee was "90 percent" and that walking the hilly Plantation Course would be difficult, though he didn't expect it to impact his swing.

The reason Scott finds himself in "Three Down" isn't due to his T-18 result, which is certainly forgivable considering the injury. He's on this list because it appears he hasn't learned -- or doesn't want to learn -- from past history, as he continues to find extracurricular activities that could inhibit his success on the course.

"Surfing is something I love to do, and I'm not surfing at the moment until probably ... after Augusta, to be honest, is what David, my trainer, would like me to do," Scott said prior to the start of the tournament. "But we'll get my knee back to 100 percent before I think about doing any surfing again."

That doesn't mean he's cutting other activities from his schedule, though.

"Skiing, I definitely fall, and my legs are strapped to a ski, they can twist so easily. And the same with tennis, just violent movement, changing directions."

Being a professional golfer gives these guys the freedom to explore other interests, but I worry that if Scott keeps playing other recreational sports and risking injury, he could rob himself of what has the potential to be a fantastic career.

Another hobby of Scott's is far less threatening -- he enjoys biographies. I once asked him how his will read in 25 to 30 years.

"It'll mention golf, absolutely," he said. "But I hope there's more to my life than just golf."

Let's just hope there's not so much more that it detracts from his long-term professional goals.

6 Anthony Kim. If this list were based solely on golf, Kim wouldn't be a candidate. In fact, the kid is so good he may not find himself "down" for a very long time, a T-2 result at the Mercedes being the latest evidence.

Alas, golfers sometimes are judged on more than just their games and, as such, I offer a quote from young AK this week: "I'm not a huge golf fan, so I don't know all the stats. I really thought [Tiger Woods] had won about eight majors, and he told me he won 14. I didn't know that."

Now, I'll be the first to admit that it's not a golfer's job to know the career records of his peers. But dude ... eight?! I'm not sure whether we should take that guess as humorous for its naïveté or shocking for its huge inaccuracy. For the record, Woods' eighth major title came at the 2002 U.S. Open -- just days before Kim's 17th birthday.

Oh, and for those conspiracy theorists who think Kim may have just been using this as subtle off-the-course trash talk toward Woods? Don't go there. Both Nike and IMG clients, the two players have forged a strong bond, especially since Kim won Woods' AT&T National tournament last year.

7 Europe. The struggles continue for the team representing the birthplace of golf. On the heels of its Ryder Cup loss in September, the European side fell to far-less-heralded Asia in the similar Royal Trophy this weekend.

Actually, "fell" doesn't accurately define the loss. It was a thumping. Behind the captaincy of Jose Maria Olazabal, who was substituting for still-recovering Seve Ballesteros, Europe lost 10-6, though in effect the event already was over as Europe trailed 6½-1½ entering Sunday's singles matches.

Granted, this wasn't exactly the same squad that was vanquished at Valhalla. The eight-man team consisted of only two members of that group, as Soren Hansen and Oliver Wilson were joined by Paul Lawrie, Nick Dougherty, Pablo Larrazabal, Johan Edfors, Niclas Fasth and Paul McGinley. Even so, the team's first loss in three editions of this event won't spur much continental pride.

"My last words are for Seve," Olazabal said afterward. "He is recovering from some health issues, but even though I'm the captain this year, I might not be the captain next year -- and I can assure you he is going to be tougher than I was."

8
Seven Questions With ...

Trevor Immelman

Don Emmert/AFP/Getty Images

Given the high-profile stories surrounding the 2009 Masters, defending champion Trevor Immelman could get lost in the shuffle. But don't count out the South African just yet.

The biggest stories entering this year's Masters are likely to be Tiger Woods' ongoing comeback from injury, Padraig Harrington's quest for a third straight major victory in pursuit of the Paddy Slam, and Greg Norman's homecoming to his personal house of heartache. Lost among those headlines likely will be the story of the guy who returns to Augusta National wearing the green jacket. But don't dismiss Trevor Immelman as a one-hit wonder.

I spoke with the reigning Masters champion, via webcam prior to Kapalua, about everything from the Champions Dinner to his goals for this season. After the Q&A, I'll get into the real reason for the chat, as Immelman was discussing the new Nike technology that helped him to that victory and will be available to consumers on April 1.

Q: What's the best perk of being a Masters champion?
A: There are a lot of good things; you're making me think now. I tell you what, it's been fantastic to have that green jacket in my house for the last six months or so. Obviously, that jacket is going to have to be hanging up from this year's tournament onward, but that's been awesome. And just to understand that you're part of the history of such a great event. I've always paid such special attention to the history of sports and major champions and Olympic winners and Grand Slam winners and stuff like that. For me to know that I'm a part of that has really been something special for me and something that I'll cherish forever.

Q: Tell me the truth: How often do you throw on the green jacket and just stand in front of the mirror for a few minutes?
A: You know, not as often as I thought I would. When it does come out of the closet, it's worn with a lot of pride. I must say, everybody who's come over to the house -- we've had a lot of pictures with people who have tried it on -- it's amazing how a jacket can be a symbol of such great things and how this green jacket is so incredibly perceived around the world. When I went over to Japan and China and wore it, people are in absolute awe of this green jacket. It really has such a great history behind it and it's such a well-known trophy, if you will. Its impact is incredible.

Q: Trivia question for you: Only three players have ever repeated at Augusta. Who are they?
A: Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods and Nick Faldo.

Q: You got it. That'd be pretty nice company, wouldn't it?
A: It would be great company. I mean, winning it once was the highlight of my career, so winning it twice would be absolutely incredible. Obviously, as usual, I'm going to be putting a lot of work into trying to make sure I'm physically and mentally ready for the event. At that point, once you've done all the work, you just have to go out and play. What will be, will be. Hopefully, it will be a good one.

Q: Any idea what's on the menu for the Champions Dinner yet?
A: I'm getting on that. It's going to have a South African feel to it. We're going to have a couple of nice dishes that are well-known in South Africa, but I'm not going to make it too exotic. I want to make sure that all the other past champions are really going to enjoy it and have a great night.

Q: Other than a playoff loss in Memphis last year, you struggled after winning the Masters. What happened?
A: You know, I don't think it was so much my game. Mentally, I think I was having a hard time coming to grips with what I had just achieved. I think it took me a long while to digest the fact that I had completed a lifelong goal, and I think it took me a while to get my mind back on track to setting myself some goals and figuring out exactly what I would like to do after winning the Masters. It had such an incredible impact on me that it just took some time for me to get used to it. And as you said, I had a good week there in Memphis, lost in a playoff, then I just didn't play quite as well for a few months. But I felt like my game really started improving in the playoffs. I had a nice, strong finish there, and then in Japan, and I had a decent week a few weeks ago in South Africa. So I do feel like my game is back to where I want it, and I'm really looking forward to this season because I feel like I learned so much about myself after winning the Masters, from a mental standpoint and an emotional standpoint. I'm really looking forward to putting all that good experience to work this year.

Q: What should we expect from you? Do you have any specific goals this season?
A: Yeah, I have lofty goals. I think that's important. I think you always have to have something to strive for. I've always been a hard worker, so this makes me go out there and work with even more passion. I've set some nice goals for myself. I'm not going to go run around town and tell everybody exactly what I'd like to achieve, but one thing I did prove to myself last year is that when I play my best golf, I have the ability to compete with anybody out there. So I have a kind of confidence. I think the goal, for me, is just to try to find a way to do it a bit more often. I just seem to be able to find it every year to 18 months right now, and I'd like to narrow that gap. So I think that's the goal for me, is to just be able to get myself in the hunt more regularly and hopefully close a few victories out from there.

In looking back, I think Immelman may have been the least ballyhooed Masters champ of the past few decades; at least Zach Johnson had the whole "normal guy from Iowa" angle going for him. But don't overlook the 29-year-old South African. I expect big things this season -- maybe not Masters big, but big nonetheless.

The main purpose of our conversation, though, was to discuss the Nike SQ DYMO STR-8-Fit driver technology that Immelman credits for helping him win at Augusta. You can find out more on the company's Web site, but in layman's terms the technology offers eight different head positions on one club, one shaft, one head.

"It has a fitting on the shaft and you're going to be able to change the setting on your driver in eight different ways," said Immelman, who closed his lie 1 degree prior to last year's Masters. "I've never done any handiwork at home, but even I can operate this thing. It takes about 90 seconds. ... It's something that the world of golf has never seen before. It's totally innovative and it's going to be an absolute smash hit."

The technology will be available to consumers for the first time on April Fools' Day. And that's no joke.

Three Wishes

9 I wish PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem would reconsider his stance on releasing information about suspensions and fines. As written here last week, I think it's a bit archaic that the Tour remains mum on all such affairs when every other professional sports league makes them public. On Wednesday, Finchem addressed the issue during his annual news conference from Kapalua, contending that the reasoning was twofold.

"One, we don't feel like people really care that much," Finchem said. "We don't get e-mails from fans saying, 'Why don't you tell us?' So we don't think there's this hunger for that information."

Maybe I should let the commish have a peek into my inbox, which was teeming with requests for more info about John Daly's suspension after the player himself made it public knowledge a few weeks ago. Why would the PGA Tour let rumors fly instead of quashing them by controlling the story from its origin? I mean, even Daly didn't know the start date of the suspension. Release this news, and neither the player nor the fans -- whom Finchem always seems eager to please, based on the aforementioned quote -- will be left in the dark.

"Two, candidly, we don't have that much of it, and we don't want to remind people about it," Finchem continued. "I'm just being straightforward. ... Remember now, in our sport, a bad thing is a bad word; it's not getting indicted, usually. It's a bad word. But we don't want to remind people by saying, 'We fined such-and-such a player $5,000 for saying a bad word.' It's just reminding them that he said a bad word."

True, but it would also remind the player of any embarrassment felt from the act when a bottom-line ticker flashed his punishment for unbecoming behavior. And maybe next time he might act more appropriately, knowing the subsequent news wouldn't be swept under the rug. And isn't that the main goal of these suspensions and fines in the first place?

10 I wish I could see the look on Tiger Woods' face when he opens up the mailbox in a few days and sees a check ... from the PGA Tour ... to the tune of $53,000 ... for "playing" in the Mercedes-Benz Championship.

Granted, I'm guessing he's signed up for direct deposit by now -- unless he's cashing all of those oversized checks at the bank, Happy Gilmore-style -- but you get the idea. Even though Woods was likely some 5,000 miles away from Maui as the tournament took place, PGA Tour rules state that in events without a cut or alternate list, a qualified player who can't compete due to injury will earn last-place, unofficial money -- meaning it won't count toward the money list or other career totals. (Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson and Padraig Harrington will not collect, because none had an injury that prevented him from participating.)

It was because of the same rule that Tiger earned a check for last year's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and BMW Championship, too, while picking up 70th-place money in the final FedEx Cup standings.

Money for nothing? Dire Straits may have been singing about Tiger well before his time.

Sure, 53 grand may be chump change to a guy like Tiger. (Golf Digest recently estimated his earnings and endorsements total at $886,778,335 since turning pro in 1996.) But here's guessing there are some professional golfers reading right now who are crying into their morning oatmeal. Consider this: Travis Perkins, J.L. Lewis and John Daly played in 23, 16 and 17 PGA Tour events last year, respectively, and none of 'em broke the $53,000 barrier. Not for a single event, mind you, but for the entire season. Ouch.

11 I wish all the fuss over Annika Sorenstam's "retirement" had been muted a bit -- not because it isn't well-deserved, but because it simply may not be accurate. Even after imploring us during a May news conference to refrain from calling it "the 'R' word," Sorenstam was honored in her "final" U.S. Women's Open ... and her "final" Women's British Open ... and her "final" LPGA appearance ... and her "final" competitive tournament in Dubai.

Now comes word that she will return to compete in something called the Annika Celebration, a three-day event in Orlando, Fla., next month that will feature a pro-am and exhibition against Lorena Ochoa, Paula Creamer and Natalie Gulbis.

Asked whether she would keep the door open for a full-time comeback, Sorenstam recently said, "Well, that's the beauty of it, I suppose. I have the option to do that, and maybe that's why I feel even more that I won't. Never say never, but on the other hand, I feel great right now. This is what I've been waiting for."

Sorenstam, who wed longtime boyfriend Mike McGee in front of 125 guests near their Orlando home on Saturday, may never compete in a 15- to 20-event schedule again, but something tells me I'll be writing an "Annika is back!" column soon enough. Nothing wrong with such a return -- it's her prerogative and she's always maintained that it's a possibility -- but it cheapens all those celebrations we've seen in recent months. Consider it just another reminder that there's no such thing as "the 'R' word" in the world of professional golf.

Jason Sobel is a golf writer for ESPN.com. He can be reached at Jason.Sobel@espn3.com.


ESPN Conversation
12
Quote of the Week


"It's just golf, man." -- Boo Weekley, in a Golf Channel postround interview after 4-putting the final green from 13 feet to close out his second round at Kapalua.

At the risk of turning this into the "Weekley 18," let the record show that we're now two weeks into the column and Boo owns a perfect 2-for-2 mark in Quote of the Week statements.

Turns out, though, that this one was only an appetizer -- the poi before the pig, so to speak -- as Weekley provided even more entertainment following Saturday's third round. I dare you to keep from laughing when reading these. It's utterly impossible.

On walking the hilly Plantation Course: "It's hard for a fat guy like me. I ain't in no gym."

On his theory of hunting: "I don't chase nothing that will eat me."

On what he would need to do to beat 54-hole leader Geoff Ogilvy: "Well, I'm gonna have to catch him when he rolls out of bed, probably. You know, when he rolls over, hit him with something in the back of the head. Kidnap him, roll him in the back of the trunk. I mean, I don't know."

On why he hasn't been invited back as a guest on "The Tonight Show" with Jay Leno: "He ain't much of a golfer. He told me. I said, 'Good. I don't watch your show.'"

See? Hilarious stuff. But the loose-lipped Weekley may have gotten himself into some hot water with his final on-air comment.

On what he knows about Qatar, where he will play in a few weeks: "I ain't gotta wear one of them turbans. That's one good thing."

During Golf Channel's rebroadcast of the round later that night, Weekley's last comment didn't air, as the program simply went to commercial break midinterview. Reached the next day via e-mail, Golf Channel spokesman Dan Higgins said, "It was edited out by us, in deference to our viewers."

Coming almost exactly one year after anchor Kelly Tilghman's "lynch" comment, this should serve as another reminder for those in the game to speak with greater sensitivity toward other races and cultures.

13
Road to Augusta


Retief Goosen has had one arm in the sleeve of a green jacket a handful of times this decade, only to hit Magnolia Lane on Sunday evening wearing the same ol' clothes he showed up in.

In 2002, he finished solo second, 3 shots behind Tiger Woods. Three years later, his T-3 looked nice but was far from reaching the Woods-Chris DiMarco playoff. The next year, he finished 3 shots behind Phil Mickelson. And one year after that, he made the cut on the number, then battled to a share of second place, just 2 strokes shy of Zach Johnson.

Since then, Goosen's game has gone south -- and I don't just mean for more practice at Lake Nona. In 27 PGA Tour starts since nearly rallying to catch Johnson at the 2007 Masters, the two-time U.S. Open champ has posted only a pair of top-10s, finishing T-2 at Doral and T-4 at Firestone last year.

One month shy of his 40th birthday, the former world No. 3 is no longer playing like an elite-level talent, having dipped to 45th in the rankings. Which may explain his sentiment prior to last week's Joburg Open: "I hope I don't embarrass myself here."

He didn't -- for the first three rounds, at least. One shot off the lead through 54 holes, Goosen languished to a final-round 74 that left him in a share of 23rd place, 8 strokes behind winner Anders Hansen and tied with such luminaries as Oliver Bekker, Klas Eriksson, Anthony Snobeck and Jeppe Huldahl. (And it would have been much worse if not for a rare double-eagle on the par-5 final hole.)

So another promising start will again ultimately be viewed as disappointment for the Goose, who traditionally doesn't make his U.S. debut until mid-February.

It's impossible to know what effect, if any, this will have on his prospects at Augusta National in a few months, but it's about time to start wondering whether Goosen remains a contender to put both arms into a green jacket someday or is purely a pretender to the throne.

14
The List
The newest addition to the W18 format is "The List," which is, well ... a list. OK, so I'm not going to win any originality points, but everyone loves lists, right?

With the season's first full-field event kicking off at Waialae this week, let's get you acquainted with a few of the fresh faces who will hold full-time PGA Tour membership in 2009. After last year's somewhat disappointing rookie crop -- Andres Romero, Chez Reavie, Dustin Johnson and Marc Turnesa won titles; only Romero reached the Tour Championship -- I expect a much more successful campaign for this season's freshmen.

(Quick aside: I recently spoke with a kid who had just entered college. While initiating small talk, I asked, "So, you're a freshman?" To which he responded, "Yes, I'm a first-year." Huh? Didn't realize the term "freshman" had been deemed derogatory.)

The inaugural edition of "The List" breaks down the top five freshmen -- sorry, first-years -- to keep an eye on, in ascending order. No peeking ...

5. Gary Woodland. I'm not sure how the former college hoopster will fare, but I do know he'll be fun to watch. With a swing speed that may be the fastest on the Tour, expect the Q-school grad to challenge Bubba Watson for this year's driving-distance crown. Hey, chicks aren't the only ones who dig the long ball.

4. Webb Simpson. How good is this kid? At Q-school, the most high-pressure event of his young life (although the Walker Cup may be up there), the 23-year-old was a picture of consistency, shooting 69-68-68-70-69-67 for his six rounds. As if that weren't enough, the former Wake Forest standout made the cut in three of six PGA Tour starts last year and twice earned runner-up honors in just eight Nationwide appearances.


3. Ricky Barnes. $3,582. That was the difference between Barnes reaching the PGA Tour for the first time or being relegated to the Nationwide circuit for a fifth straight year. The former stud of the amateur ranks -- remember his 21st-place finish at the 2003 Masters? -- will turn 28 next month. His golf game has matured along with the player.


2. Casey Wittenberg. He was a can't-miss kid who missed, parlaying a huge amateur career into stops on the Hooters and Canadian tours. The sob story stops there for Wittenberg, though, as he's "finally" reached the PGA Tour at the ripe old age of 24. With a game built for consistency, he's my preseason pick to capture Rookie of the Year honors.


1. Colt Knost. He'll always be a lightning rod for discussion after The Decision of 2007. The third player to ever win three USGA titles in one year (joining Bobby Jones [1930] and Jay Sigel [1983] by taking the U.S. Amateur and PubLinks and being a member of the victorious Walker Cup team), Knost turned pro rather than competing as an amateur in the Masters and U.S. Open, reveling in the vast criticism all the while. Now he's having the last laugh, as a two-win Nationwide season served as his springboard to the big leagues. Time to see if the mini-Jason Gore clone can keep up his winning ways.

15
And the Winner Is ...


So this is how it's gonna be, huh?

Prior to last year's U.S. Open, I refrained from picking Tiger Woods to win on a Torrey Pines course he knows so well for fear that he wouldn't be able to overcome his knee injury. Oops. A month later, I failed to place Padraig Harrington very high in my ranking of the British Open field due to his wrist injury entering the week. Double oops.

So when, after selecting Vijay Singh to win the Mercedes-Benz Championship in this space a week ago, I heard that it would be his final tournament for four to five weeks because he was set to undergo surgery for a torn meniscus in his knee, I figured, "Whew. I'm finally going to look smart by picking an injured guy to win."

Not so much.

The big Fijian commenced his season with a double-bogey on the first hole of the first round and never recovered, finishing T-27 in the 33-man field.

There may not be another start coming up right away for Singh to rinse that bad taste from his mouth, but there is for us prognosticators, so let's look ahead to the Sony Open.

I'm tempted to pick 2006 champion David Toms, who has reunited with Cleveland Golf and longtime caddie Scott Gneiser -- both of whom had a hand in each of his 11 career victories -- but it may take a little more time for him to transition from duck-hunting season to golf season.

It's for that same reason that I always try to select a player at the Sony who is making the short trip from Maui rather than reaching the Aloha State -- and battling jetlag -- just prior to the tournament. So instead, I'll pick Davis Love III.

Coming off a strong runner-up finish at Kapalua, DL3 is always a force on ball-striker's courses (see: Harbour Town), and Waialae certainly fits the bill. He's got some extra motivation, too. Last year, Love's consecutive major championship streak ended at 70 when he failed to qualify for the Masters.

He's still not eligible for the year's first major but, of course, a victory anytime between now and then would automatically vault him into the field. I think it's going to happen at some point. This week is as good a time as any.

16
From the Inbox
My outrage toward the cinematic inaccuracy of the commissioner's meeting with Happy in last week's W18 only drew a few "I'm with you!" and "You got it!" e-mails from the readership, so let's move on to bigger and better issues ...

The runner-up for E-mail of the Week (in case the E-mail of the Week winner cannot uphold the duties of the position, the runner-up will take its place) goes to Steve in Parts Unknown:

"I don't understand how you can be so confident that Tiger Woods is going to come back from this injury as good as ever. I know he can do things that no other golfer has ever done and he ALWAYS makes the big putt when he has to, but I just don't see him coming back and being as strong as ever -- especially not right away. I think over time, yes, he will be as strong as ever, but if he DOES wait to come back until the Masters, I don't see him contending. I don't see how he can take 9+ months off and then contend in his first tournament back, especially if it's the Masters (see: 2006 U.S. Open).

It is my opinion that it is going to take him longer to come back than most people think. We are talking about not making full swings for at least 6 months, and from what I understand, people are also advising him to not snap his leg during his swing. That means another swing change. Ernie Els is a pretty special player, and I'm not sure he is even back to where he used to be before his knee surgery. So I guess my question is, how can you be so confident that Woods will come back and dominate like he never left the game?"

I'm going to regurgitate a line I've written at least a dozen times since Woods was sidelined for the season last June: If he can win the most grueling tournament of the year with a torn ACL and multiple leg fractures, then he can win anyplace, anytime. When discussing injuries, athletes always contend they're at 90 percent health, or 80 percent, whatever the case may be. I'm not sure how to quantify Tiger's injury when he was playing the Open, but it was way less than 80 or 90 percent.

Whenever he returns, that knee may not be 100 percent -- he told me in October that the ligament itself wouldn't fully heal for up to another 18 months -- but it will be at a much greater percentage, physically, than it was in June 2008. We're also talking about a guy who is more driven than perhaps anyone else in the history of the game. Whether it's rehab or rebuilding his swing, Woods will outwork any of his peers. And believe me, he doesn't want to shoot 78-76 in his return and miss the cut. He wants to come back with a splash and won't make his season debut until he knows he's ready to win a tournament, not just compete in one.

As for the swing changes, that was something I also addressed with Woods.

"I've been trying to make swing changes for years," he said with a laugh. "You're always making swing changes. It is what it is. That's golf. You're always tinkering."

It may sound like a flippant response, but it's actually the dead-on truth. Every pro -- from TW down to the lowest-ranking guys on the minitours -- is constantly tweaking his swing. It's not something they get comfortable with and just stop working on altogether. If that were the case, there would be a lot fewer guys on the practice range at PGA Tour events every week.

Staying on this subject, let's go to the E-mail of the Week, from Nate Ricks in St. Louis:

"Am I the only one convinced that Tiger's knee injury plunged the country into an economic crisis? The GDP was up 2.8 percent at the time of the U.S. Open. Tiger gets hurt and the following two quarters see Wall Street collapse and a recession officially announced. I'm convinced that the economy will start to turn around in the second quarter next year -- not because of the forthcoming stimulus plan from President-elect Obama, but because of Tiger Woods' triumphant return to the Masters. I think Tiger is going to single-handedly pull us out of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression!"

Hmmm ... and I seem to remember Tiger's three-major season of 2000 being a pretty prosperous year for the market, too. Love it, Nate. And for everyone else, maybe it's wise to keep your money (whatever is left of it) under the mattress until TW tees it up again.

Have an e-mail for next week's edition of the W18? Hit me up at Jason.Sobel@espn3.com.

17
Stat of the Week
3.67

That was the differential in Official World Golf Ranking average points between top-ranked Tiger Woods and No. 2 man Sergio Garcia during the first week of the year.

Now, I know your next question, so I'll answer it before you even have to ask: Yes, there is a chance that Woods won't still be the No. 1-ranked player upon his return. As of Monday morning, Woods owned 11.36 average points, with Garcia next at 7.88, followed by Padraig Harrington (6.714), Phil Mickelson (6.713) and Vijay Singh (6.54).

According to projections from Ian Barker of the OWGR, if Woods doesn't tee it up again before March 1, his number will drop to 9.33. (If he doesn't play before the end of that month, the number will fall to 8.22.) How can he be surpassed? And by whom? Well, those are great questions without great answers due to the amount of variables involved. For instance, a victory by Garcia in a star-studded field in Dubai would yield more points than a Mickelson win against a shallow field at Torrey Pines.

I traded e-mails with Barker this week, and he sees Garcia and Harrington as the players with the best opportunities to overtake Woods -- though it won't be easy for either.

"A WGC victory will carry winning points in the 70s," he told me, "so it is possible for both players, but I don't think either could do it without winning a big tournament -- in Harrington's case, probably two!"

For the record, Barker isn't necessarily discounting Mickelson's chances; it's just that Lefty will be losing valuable points from his 2007 AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am victory when that event falls out of the 24-month rollover period. Conversely, Garcia and Harrington won't be losing any early-season victories from that year.

One note: Should Woods slip to third in the OWGR, it actually won't be new territory. He trailed both Singh and Ernie Els for five weeks during the autumn of 2004.

One more note: Garcia is currently the first player without a major victory to be ranked second in the world since Mickelson during the week of Jan. 5, 2003. Should Garcia rise to No. 1, he would become just the second man since the OWGR was introduced in 1986 to elevate to that title despite never having won a major, joining David Duval in 1999.

Of course, take all of this with more than a few grains of salt. Even if one or two (or more) players pass Woods for the No. 1 ranking in the next few months, it will obviously be considered a tainted, temporary title. Then again, it will be fun to watch TW try to reclaim it upon his return.

Want more stats? Try the Golf Stats Blog.

18
Photo of the Week

AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

It's three years old, sure, but seeing how champion Geoff Ogilvy didn't make any post-tournament hand-signal faux pas, I couldn't resist this 2006 photo of Stuart Appleby mistakenly flashing the "El Diablo" gesture instead of the "hang loose" he presumably was trying to muster.

You'd think he would have figured it out by his third time in the Kapalua winner's circle, huh?