PGA Championship rankings: The top 25

Originally Published: August 6, 2008

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By Jason Sobel
ESPN.com
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With three majors down and one to go this year, I can look at my prognosticating powers in one of two ways. Either they've been pretty good, with my picks to win coming in second (Tiger Woods at the Masters), T-18 (Phil Mickelson at the U.S. Open) and T-5 (Jim Furyk at the British Open) … or they've been complete failures, since I have yet to garner a W.

My last chance comes at this week's PGA Championship. They call it "Glory's Last Shot," but I think "Respectability's Last Shot" is more like it in this case. And wouldn't you know, my pick to win is a guy who didn't even compete in the previous three majors this year.

PGA Championship Rankings: The Top 25

Player

Best Finish

Analysis

1. Kenny Perry

Ah, sweet irony. After getting blasted for not trying to qualify for the U.S. Open and not playing in the British despite being qualified, Perry could have the last laugh in his first major of the year. An added bonus: Sunday will be his 48th birthday. He'd be the second-oldest player to win a major title, just a few months behind Julius Boros in 1968.

2. Hunter Mahan

T-18

One of the PGA Tour's greens in regulation leaders, Mahan has played very well of late, with four finishes of 18th or better in five starts since June. He's been on the verge of breaking out for a while; this could be the week.

3. Ernie Els

I'm back on the Big Easy Bandwagon -- for this week, at least. At Firestone, Els hit the ball as well as anybody in the field … and putted as poorly as anybody, too. Here's guessing he spends a few extra hours hunched over 5-footers prior to the opening round, so don't be surprised if his stroke looks much better than it did just a few days ago.

4. Anthony Kim

T-50

With Tiger Woods out of the mix, this 23-year-old will be among the chic picks to win this week -- and for good reason. With wins at Quail Hollow and Congressional already this year, Kim has shown a propensity for playing his best golf on classic, old-style courses. Oakland Hills fits the bill.

5. Robert Allenby

T-9

After missing the cut in his season debut, Allenby has earned a paycheck in 19 consecutive starts. Hard to believe this guy hasn't won in the United States since 2001 -- and hard to believe he won't change that sometime very soon.

6. Chad Campbell

Like Mahan, Campbell currently is on the outside looking in for automatic inclusion on the U.S. Ryder Cup team, but a good week could move him from the No. 19 spot into the top eight. With three straight results of 14th or better, the burly Texan might be peaking at just the right time.

7. Phil Mickelson

Win

With Woods out, Mickelson takes over the role of favorite -- but not by much. Lefty visited Oakland Hills for two days last week, plotting and strategizing his way around the course, but there's a growing sentiment that says a feel player like Phil shouldn't be doing so much research and poring over all the stats. Well, Mickelson has never been one to listen to the pundits. If and when he wins another major, expect it to come with a large dose of vindication.

8. Sean O'Hair

T-12

He's a streaky player -- and that's not necessarily a bad thing. Since returning from the British Open, he finished T-3 in Canada and was in serious contention through two rounds at Firestone. O'Hair doesn't make a ton of birdies, but that won't hurt him too much on what could be a treacherous Oakland Hills course this week.

9. Briny Baird

T-22

He leads the PGA Tour's greens in regulation stat (70.19 percent) and is among the top scramblers. One other category he leads? Baird is the top career money-winner without a victory, banking more than $9 million in nine seasons so far. And he hasn't missed the cut in four previous PGA Championship appearances. If you're searching for a dark-horse candidate, look no further.

10. Robert Karlsson

T-29

The player with the best cumulative results at the year's first three majors? It's none other than Karlsson, who finished T-8 at the Masters, T-4 at the U.S. Open and T-7 at the British. In fact, the sweet-swinging Swede hasn't finished worse than 20th anywhere since March -- a streak that spans nine tournaments. Last year, nobody was top-10 at all four majors (Woods and Justin Rose both finished in the top 12 at each of them); Karlsson is the only one with a chance this time around.

11. Lee Westwood

T-15

Two months after coming within inches of being a third wheel at the U.S. Open playoff, Westwood returns to a site where he went 4-0-1 at the 2004 Ryder Cup. He still is playing well, as evidenced by a runner-up result at Firestone, so expect him to be in the mix once again this week.

12. Jim Furyk

T-6

Simply put, Furyk is one of very few players who could win any tournament on any day at any venue. The guy with the greatest ugliest swing in the game has won on long venues and short venues, on fast greens and slow greens. It makes him a formidable contender every week but doesn't help much for prognosticating purposes.

13. Vijay Singh

Win

There are two ways to look at Singh's one-stroke victory at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational on Sunday: Either it was a sign of worse things to come because he missed 10 putts of 8 feet or less during the four rounds … or it was unduly impressive because he missed 10 putts of 8 feet or less during the four rounds. Vijay admitted afterward that he feels "uncomfortable" standing over short putts. If he gets comfortable by Thursday, watch out.

14. Chris DiMarco

T-2

Yes, this is the same Chris DiMarco who ranks 143rd on the PGA Tour money list and isn't in the top half in any major statistical category. But a T-12 at the Bridgestone -- his best result in 20 starts this year -- should have him in good spirits, as will a return to Oakland Hills, where he was the only U.S. player to post a winning record four years ago at the Ryder Cup.

15. Steve Stricker

Ten years ago, Stricker finished in sole possession of second place at this event, two strokes behind Singh at Sahalee. Since then, he totally dropped off the scene, only to return to elite-level status and play better than ever. Known as one of the world's top rock-rollers, Stricker will benefit if this event turns into a putting contest.

16. Ian Poulter

T-9

If not for Padraig Harrington's sublime back-nine performance the Sunday of the British Open, Poulter very well could own the Claret Jug right now. "Hopefully, I can take that forward into majors coming up," the Open runner-up said, "and hopefully we can kick on in the big tournaments from now on." He's been ridiculed -- and rightly so -- for his "it will be just me and Tiger" comments, but Poulter can (almost) back up the tough talk.

17. Rocco Mediate

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I never thought Rocco would hang in over the weekend at Torrey Pines, let alone hang with Woods in the playoff. And I overlooked him going into the British, where he was first-round co-leader and finished T-19. OK, I get it. Mediate is a player to watch when he's healthy -- and he's healthy right now.

18. Stuart Appleby

T-4

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Appleby gets himself into contention but can't seal the deal down the stretch. On Sunday, it occurred at a WGC event, but it's been a developing story at major championships over the years, too. He's played every single major since the 1997 Masters but owns only four top-10s.

19. Brandt Snedeker

T-18

I know this might sound strange, but here's Snedeker's rep: He's the type of guy who doesn't do anything all that well but knows how to get the ball into the hole and grind out pars. While Perry and J.B. Holmes get most of the ink for wanting to play the Ryder Cup in their native Kentucky, don't underestimate this Tennessee native's desire; he currently is ranked 15th on the list.

20. K.J. Choi

T-6

The nation of South Korea has accounted for two major championship titles this year alone -- just not on the men's side. Inbee Park (U.S. Women's Open) and Ji-Yai Shin (Women's British Open) already have represented their homeland, but if the country is to receive its first men's champion, the only logical candidate is Choi.

21. Sergio Garcia

Like Westwood, Garcia was 4-0-1 at Oakland Hills in the 2004 Ryder Cup. I'm on record as stating I think he'll own a major by the time he turns 30, which means he has only five more chances. Don't be shocked if it happens this week, but I'm going to hold off on picking him until 2009.

22. Retief Goosen

T-6

As much of an enigma over the past year as his buddy and fellow South African Els, Goosen is coming off a T-4 at Firestone, just his second top-10 of the season. Unlike Els, however, Goosen's putting stroke is fine; it's his swing that's being worked on. "It's never easy, but it's starting to feel better," Goosen said recently. "And my putting consistency is still there."

23. Henrik Stenson

T-14

I haven't been a big fan of Stenson, especially at the majors, which preach patience and consistency. But he showed a lot in finishing T-3 at Royal Birkdale and could be primed for another big week at the PGA.

24. Jeff Quinney

Nothing in his recent play suggests Quinney will be among the top finishers this week -- he owns a T-63 and three missed-cuts in his past four starts -- but he ranks fifth in putting average and eighth in putts per round on the PGA Tour. A guy who can roll it like him has a chance to contend any given week.

25. Stewart Cink

T-3

One year ago this week, Cink topped my list going into the PGA, as I felt he'd receive the ultimate vindication for his gaffe on the final hole at the 2001 U.S. Open. (The lesson, as always: Take this list with many grains of salt.) Cink was one of the world's hottest players, but since winning in Hartford, he's gone MC, T-43 in two starts.

Jason Sobel is a golf writer for ESPN.com. He can be reached at Jason.Sobel@espn3.com