For first time ever, U.S. is underdog

Updated: September 20, 2006, 3:23 PM ET

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By Ron Sirak
GolfDigest.com
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The best thing the United States has going for it in this Ryder Cup is the fact it's played on grass. On paper, the U.S. team doesn't have a chance, which is sort of scary because the European side has, for the past 10 competitions at least, always had the intangibles on its side. Suddenly, those seven European victories in the past 10 competitions no longer appear as aberrations but rather as an established indication of the relative strength of the two sides in team competition.

Consider this barometer by which to measure the teams that square off starting Friday at The K Club in Ireland. Three of the four best Ryder Cup winning percentages in the history of the European team belong to Sergio Garcia, Colin Montgomerie and Jose Maria Olazabal -- all on this year's squad. Three of the top-four American Ryder Cup winning percentages belong to Jimmy Demaret, Horton Smith and Walter Hagen -- all dead. Sort of makes you feel like the future of the U.S. Ryder Cup team is behind it.

As John Sterling, the radio voice of the New York Yankees, is wont to say right before he bores you with numbers, "I don't want to bore you with numbers, but..." So, let's consider some numbers, beyond the fact that the best European Ryder Cuppers are alive and the best of the Americans no longer are posting scores.

Although it is true that Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk and Phil Mickelson top the Official World Golf Ranking, Vaughn Taylor, J.J. Henry and Brett Wetterich are all ranked No. 59 or lower. Europe has no one ranked worse than No. 52 (Paul McGinley). The average world ranking of the U.S. team is 28.2, 23.7 for Europe. More dramatically, the average world ranking for the bottom six on each team is 47.2 for the U.S. side and 35 for the Europeans.

Not only does the U.S. side have four Ryder Cup rookies (Taylor, Henry, Wetterich and Zach Johnson) compared with two for the Europeans (Robert Karlsson and Henrik Stenson), the Europeans have successful experience. Just Montgomerie and Olazabal combined have won more points (39) than the entire U.S. roster (36). Four European players (Monty, Olazabal, Garcia and Lee Westwood) have more career Ryder Cup points than the leading American on this year's team (Mickelson with 10.5).

Although the Americans have their traditional edge in singles play (a combined 12-6-2 record), this European side doesn't have as poor a record as you might expect (13-14-6). The Europeans win by building a big lead in four-ball and foursomes play, then holding on. This time, they might not need to build up as large a lead.

That said, this European team has an awesome record in the two-man formats. The players' combined four-ball record is 28-15-12, compared with a pathetic 9-18-4 for the Americans, and the Euro mark in foursomes (alternate-shot play) is an awesome 35-13-3 against the 10-15-4 mark for the Americans. The U.S. team needs to get out of the gate fast to take momentum away from Europe. In 2004, Europe led 3� to � after the morning session on the first day, with the tone set by Montgomerie and Padraig Harrington when they defeated Woods and Mickelson in the opening match of the competition. They never looked back.

These numbers are impressive, but they only serve to demonstrate the overall advantage Europe has had in ways both tangible and intangible. Tangibly, they out-chip and out-putt the Americans, and that's what wins in match play. Intangibly, they seem to want it more -- perhaps because they have a World Cup soccer mentality and really get into these team competitions, or maybe because they feel they have to prove they are as good as those guys who play on the PGA Tour.

The other thing the Europeans are good at is outmaneuvering the Americans. At Oakland Hills in 2004, U.S. captain Hal Sutton told his players not to sign autographs during practice rounds to reduce their outside distractions. European captain Bernhard Langer suggested that his players go out of their way to sign autographs, which served to win over a lot of fans in hostile territory. In short, the Euros seem to enjoy the whole scene more than the Americans.

The other thing Europe seems to do well is outcoach the Americans. It seems as if the U.S. captain always gets sabotaged by a sense of democracy that forces him to play everyone in a fair amount of matches. That might make everyone feel nice, but it doesn't necessarily produce victories. European captains have no problem sitting a player if he is not on his game, sometimes until as late as the Sunday singles matches. Every American played at least three matches in 2004, with only Woods and Davis Love III playing all five. Three Europeans played only two matches, and Garcia, Westwood, Clarke and Harrington played all five.

As one of my colleagues asked, "How can any team with Tiger Woods be an underdog?" That's a good point, but it overlooks the fact that the U.S. record in the four Ryder Cups Woods has played is 1-3. Europe has a tried-and-true strategy in this competition: Have your top four guys win a lot of points and hope that some at the back end of your lineup surprise you. For the U.S. to win, its Big Three players -- Woods, Furyk and Mickelson -- all have to come up big. The guys from No. 4 through No. 8 on the roster have to hold their own, and the bottom quartet needs to steal a couple of points. It can be done, but there is little room for error.

Perhaps the best thing the U.S. team has going for it is that being an underdog will provide an abundance of bulletin-board material for the locker room. And we can start right here. My prediction: Europe 15, United States 13. Stick a thumbtack through that.

Ron Sirak is the executive editor of Golf World magazine.