Dealing with final-round pressure will be the key

Updated: June 18, 2006, 2:22 PM ET

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By Ron Sirak
GolfDigest.com
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MAMARONECK, N.Y. -- Phil Mickelson, the guy who fewer than 30 months ago people were saying didn't have the discipline to win a major championship, has a chance to get halfway to the Grand Slam on Sunday and win his third consecutive major at a brutally difficult Winged Foot Golf Club. But as the sun set on the leaderboard after the third round, there was still a feeling in the air that this U.S. Open could very well be won by someone who finishes Sunday's final round early. The way Winged Foot is playing -- yielding birdies with miserly reluctance -- the only place to make up ground on the field is in the clubhouse.

Don't be surprised if the guy hoisting the trophy Sunday evening is a player who finishes an hour before the final group and then sits on the sidelines and watches others give strokes back. When Mickelson closed out his 69 with a brilliant 33 on the back nine, he was through 54 holes at 2-over-par and a stroke behind leader Kenneth Ferrie. By the time play concluded 30 minutes later, he was tied for the lead after Ferrie showed his nerves by badly missing a six-foot par putt on the final hole.

The last time an over-par score led the U.S. Open after three rounds was at Winged Foot in 1974 when Tom Watson was 3-over. That year, Hale Irwin's 7-over total won the tournament.

Winged Foot, which is the most demanding course setup I've seen since the 1999 British Open at Carnoustie in Scotland, is just beating the feathers out of the field. It's the longest U.S. Open course in history, has the narrowest fairways, most devilish rough and is one of the most-demanding second shot golf courses anywhere in the world. If you don't position the ball perfectly off the tee there is very little chance of getting the ball close enough to the hole to have a realistic run at birdie. Try doing that under final-round pressure in the Open.

All you need to do to get a sense of how difficult Winged Foot is playing is look at the body language of the players as they walk down the fairway. They have the slouched shoulder posture of a coal miner climbing out of the pit after a double shift in the shaft. Their faces are a mask of dazed resignation, as if they have surrendered to the course, worn down by its sadistic demands. Every time someone would get on a run, there was a double bogey out there lurking to take them down.

Mickelson is the clear favorite of the New York-area fans, and those crowds will be loud, witty and supportive in the final round. What will be interesting is to see who they will adopt if Lefty should fade from the scene. The massive crowds here are not so much golf fans as they are sports fans. And New Yorkers view being a spectator as a participatory sport. They impose themselves on the action with a vocal intensity that at times has little to do with what is really happening on the course. Frequently, just getting a ball airborne elicits whoops and hollers.

I still think 4-over-par will be good enough to win this U.S. Open -- or at least get into a playoff. Among the guys who have a chance to go out early, post that number and watch the fun are Vijay Singh (+5), Ian Poulter (+5), Colin Montgomerie (+6), Jim Furyk (+6), Padraig Harrington (+6), Mike Weir (+6) and Luke Donald (+7).

Few things are as intimidating in golf as playing a course as difficult as Winged Foot and looking at a leaderboard on which there is someone sitting in the clubhouse with a good number. You know their number is not going up -- that can only happen to you.

Ferrie, trying to become the second European to win the U.S. Open in 79 years, is playing in only the fourth major championship of his career and has never been in a situation like this. How he handles the pressure will be fascinating, especially since he's paired with Mickelson in the final twosome in this New York City suburb. Also very much in the hunt is Geoff Ogilvy, the Australian with the game to get it done who is at 3-over, a single shot back. Steve Stricker, who hasn't won in five years, is also among those at 5-over and might be able to dip into his memory bank and pull out a positive image to carry him to victory.

But this U.S. Open is very much in Mickelson's hands. A 72 on Sunday should give him his first U.S. Open championship. After going 0-for-his-first-46 majors, he has now won three of the last nine and two in a row. He finally got his first major at the 2004 Masters, won the 2005 PGA Championship and this year's Masters. A victory here would be a Tiger-like achievement, and since Woods is watching on TV -- having missed the cut in a major for the first time in his 10 years as a professional -- it would not be much of a stretch to say that right now Lefty is the best player in the world. A victory on Sunday would remove any doubt, at least for now, about who is No. 1.

But imagine coming to the 16th tee at Winged Foot at 3 over par knowing that Harrington, for example, is in the clubhouse at 4 over par. Now that's pressure -- and it should make for a very entertaining Sunday at Winged Foot. Who shows up then, the old Phil or the new Phil?

Ron Sirak is the executive editor of Golf World magazine