Baker's Dozen: The week in preview
Breaking down this week's matchups (and mis-matchups).
1. The Best Matchup of the Week
N.Y. Yankees at Seattle: Tuesday through Thursday.
Let us hope -- if for nothing other than the sake of the planeload of Japanese media whose assignment it is to follow them around that the next encounter between Hideki Matsui and Ichiro Suzuki is more scintillating than was their first.
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Last week, they combined to go 6-for-25 with two runs scored and one RBI. Matsui drew two walks. There are some guys from whom you can take 70 points worth of batting average and they will still hurt you. Ichiro Suzuki is not one of those guys. So much of his value comes from his batting average -- especially now that he is no longer smacking extra-base hits that, at .250, he is not bringing a lot to the table. He has been especially ineffective when leading off innings, the one time where a team really needs its leadoff hitter to shine. So far, he has two doubles, eight singles and four walks in 54 plate appearances opening a frame.
2. The Overachievers Matchup of the Week
San Francisco at Atlanta: Friday through Sunday.
While it's still early enough in the season that a blowout or two can wreck it but good, let's take a look at team's expected won-loss records as opposed to their actual records.
A quick glance at the Braves with their middle-of-the-pack ERA and runs scored numbers makes one wonder how they are 20-11. Sure enough, they are projecting to 16-15 and overachieving by four games. Their opponents in this week's National League game matching the teams with the two best records -- the Giants -- are also overachieving by four games. At this juncture, they are the two teams with the largest spread between expected and actual -- in either extreme. Boston is plus-three and St. Louis and Los Angeles are both three games below where their runs scored and surrendered would indicate they should be.
3. The Throw It Back Matchup of the Week
St. Louis at Chi. Cubs: Friday through Sunday.
The Wrigley Field tradition of tossing back opponents' home run balls is the antithesis of that wonderful slice of Americana from our collective youth: the neighbor who would not return baseballs that went in their yard. I know I had one and I'm sure you did too -- provided you grew up in a place where people had yards. There was also, as I recall, a lady across the street from one of the municipal ball fields in my town who would not return balls hit during actual games. Talk about residing in the wrong place! Her living there is like a Puritan buying a home in the red light district.
4. The State of the World Champions Matchup of the Week
Cleveland at Anaheim: Tuesday through Thursday.
Remember, they are the World Champions until a new one is crowned -- or until they do something to bring shame on the institution, which is why the whole team is holding its breath, hoping nekkid photos of Ben Weber don't show up in a magazine somewhere.
How goes the defense of the title? Not at all well, so far. The team's .280 batting average -- such an important component of their offense in 2002, is nearly identical to last year's .282 -- as is the on-base percentage (.341 to .340). There has been a bit of slippage in the power department with slugging down from .433 to .419 but scoring is only down by about 6 percent, helped no doubt by the Angels' league-best .321 average with men in scoring position. (We'd better note that the Angels lose more baserunners to failed steal attempts and double plays than any other team in the American League. So far, they've lost 47, that's 11 more than the nearest team, Boston.)
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| Washburn |
The big hassle so far has been the starting pitching. Opening Day starter John Lackey has had two quality starts in seven tries. Kevin Appier has had one in four, Jarrod Washburn two in six, Ramon Ortiz two in six -- three if you bend the definition a bit. The team's ERA is up from last year by over three-quarters of a run.
5. The Worst Matchup of the Week
Detroit at Tampa Bay: Friday through Sunday.
Is it possible that events have conspired to deliver us the worst team in 40 years? Are we, a population raised on teams who always find a way to win at least 30 percent of their games, too unused to seeing this kind of ineptitude that we don't recognize a permanent situation as opposed to one of temporary standing? Have we been tricked by bad-starting teams like the '88 Orioles (0-21, 11-41), '96 Tigers (18-54) and '02 Devil Rays (15-42) into thinking that, in post-modern baseball, everyone gets to 50 wins no matter how badly they begin their seasons? I believe we have and I believe this Tigers team has what it takes to challenge that lower threshold of achievement.
6. The Central Casting? We Need a Background Catcher
Matchup of the Week
Toronto at Texas: Tuesday through Thursday.
So-named because sometime soon Rafael Palmeiro is going to hit his 500th homer and there, behind the plate in every wire service photo will be some, poor anonymous, masked man extending his glove to receive The Pitch For Which Destiny Had Other Plans. This man will be forever immortalized as the bit player in another man's drama -- or at least his catching equipment will be. If it happens this week, who will this faceless soul be? Tom Wilson or Greg Myers of Toronto? Or how about Josh Bard or Tim Laker of Cleveland? Where's Ken Huckaby when you really need him?
7. The Class of '69 Matchup of the Week
San Diego at Montreal: Tuesday through Thursday.
The Padres won the first-ever meeting between these two clubs on May 30, 1969. Relievers Jack Baldschun (win) and Dan McGinn (loss) were the pitchers of record in a game played in Jarry Park in Montreal. San Diego went 8-4 in the first series, but both teams finished with identical 52-110 records. Since then, the Expos have had a better run while the Padres have had better peaks, reaching the World Series twice. It has only been in the last eight years that San Diego has begun to post better records than Montreal on a regular basis. In the first 25 seasons of their existences, the Expos had the better record between the two 19 times and are a good bet to do so again in what might prove to be their final year in Montreal.
The overall standing:
Montreal: 2,623-2,782
San Diego: 2,471-2,941 (155½ games back)
8. The Revenge is Sweep Matchup of the Week
Boston at Kansas City: Monday through Wednesday.
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| Damon |
The images created in childhood die hard. We probably -- most of us -- still think of the Red Sox as a collection of lumbering, station-to-station baserunning types. In fact, the team was second in the league in base stealing percentage last year and leads the league in that department this season. Before we anoint them the second coming of "Lumber and Lightning," it should be pointed out that half of the stealing is being done by two men: Johnny Damon (6-for-6) and Damian Jackson (5-for-6). Jackson is playing the role of Herb Washington to some extent. Three times now he has entered games as a pinch-runner and stolen a base.
9. The Class of '93 Matchup of the Week
Colorado at Florida: Friday through Sunday.
As of Saturday, the Rockies were on pace to plate just about 1,000 runs in 2003. This is a generous helping of scoring, but would it be enough to carry the Rockies to a divisional title or a wild-card berth? No. It would not, barring some amazing luck. The trouble is, the Rockies have yet to surrender under 850 runs in any given season and they are on pace to give up 930 or so this year. How many runs will it take, then, for them to overcome that kind of largesse on the mound? Using the Pythagorean Theorem (Runs squared divided by runs squared + runs against squared), it is fairly easy to calculate how many runs a team needs to score to succeed in the promiscuous scoring world of the Rockies.
A typical Rockies team gives up about 900 runs per season. To post the kind of record that would make a team eligible for the postseason, that would require an output of 1,050 runs. This would land them at about 93 wins. With a margin of error of approximately three games, they could squeeze as many as 96 wins out of a 1,050 to 900 scoring ratio with the right amount of breaks. Of course, no Rockies team has ever scored that many runs in a season. In fact, only three teams in baseball history have.
If the Rox pitchers could limit their opponents to 850 runs -- something they've only come close to doing once (in 1998) -- then the offensive burden needed for success falls to the current level of production: 1,000 runs. Is this too much to ask? Four figures has only been achieved by eight teams, four of them Yankee clubs of the score-happy 1930s. Rockies pitchers allowed "only" 491 runs at home last year, the lowest home total in franchise history. If they could manage to repeat that feat and keep the away total under 400 -- something they have done a few times in their history -- then a 1,000-run output would be enough to take the team to the postseason for the first time since 1995.
10. The Biggest Mismatchup of the Week
Detroit at Baltimore: Monday through Wednesday.
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| Kingsale |
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| Ponson |
Talk about the hook that got away! Do you realize that if Sidney Ponson's turn to pitch had fallen anywhere else but last Saturday, we would have had the first-ever confrontation between actual knights on a baseball field? Both Ponson of the O's and Gene Kingsale of the Tigers were knighted in their native Aruba last week. With Ponson's turn to pitch coming against Kansas City between two Tigers series, we must now wait until next year to see a bona fide baseball joust. (Unless we can convince the teams to contrive a meeting between the two in one of the games this week, that is.)
11. The Generation Gap Matchup of the Week
N.Y. Yankees at Oakland: Friday through Sunday.
So-named because the average age of the big three starters is 12 years apart. It would make a fun series if the teams could gerrymander their rotations so that Mike Mussina, David Wells and Roger Clemens (14-2, 2.28 ERA combined) could face Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson (11-4, 2.86 ERA) in any particular order.
One now hears it said that Alfonso Soriano is the best player in the game. (OK, I read it on a blog, but it's out there, you know?) So, how is his career start stacking up with those of the greatest second basemen of all time? In alphabetical order:
Roberto Alomar: Debuted well and stayed there, although fell off somewhat in his third season.
Rod Carew: By the end of 2003, Soriano will have blown the doors off Carew's first three years.
Eddie Collins: Easily the most successful of the all-time greats at the position early in his career. After breaking in with an acceptable but unspectacular short season in 1908, he posted the best early-career showing of any second baseman in history as a sophomore and was almost as good the next year.
Charlie Gehringer: Of the all-time greats at the position, the only player who had a worse full season than Soriano in the first three years of his career was Gehringer, who started out with a fairly weak 1926 before improving the next two years.
Bobby Grich: He didn't go full-time at second until his sophomore year, but was very good to begin with and got better in the next two years.
Rogers Hornsby: Hit the ground running with a fantastic rookie year and superstar sophomore season. Settled into his offensive monster role in his fifth year. One note: he was a third baseman and shortstop in his formative major league years and his ascension to true greatness coincided with his move to second base.
Nap Lajoie: Opened his career with three solid seasons, the first of which was as a first baseman.
Joe Morgan: Probably the best rookie year of any player on this list. Dropped the next year due to injuries, but bounced back his third year.
Jackie Robinson: Started good and got better, enjoying one of his best seasons in his third year. Like a few of the others here, spent his first year at a different position, first base in his case.
Ryne Sandberg: His rookie year was about comparable to Soriano's -- except that he spent it at third base. Soriano had the much better second season. Sandberg hit high gear in year No. 3.
Frankie Frisch and Joe Gordon also had memorable starts to their careers. Trying to put what Soriano is doing into some kind of historical perspective, he will easily have one of the best five starts ever for a second baseman, surpassing all but Collins, Hornsby, Robinson and Grich.
12. The Mystery Matchup of the Week
? vs. ?
One of the former owners of the first opponent was, at one time, among the most famous entertainers in the world. The other team started its life with a different name and has the rare distinction of having its best-ever manager be a former pitcher.
Last week's answer was the New York Mets at the Milwaukee Brewers -- two opponents took their names from franchises that played in their same cities long ago in baseball's ancient past.
The New York Metropolitans played in the American Association from 1883-1887. The official corporate name of the modern Mets is the New York Metropolitan Baseball Club, Inc. -- a definite reference to the old team according to a press release from 1961. The current Baltimore Orioles began life as a charter American League franchise in 1901 operating as the Milwaukee Brewers, a name also used by a Union Association team in 1884 and an American Association team in 1891.
Jim Baker writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jimbakerespn@yahoo.com.
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