Baker's Dozen: The week in preview
Breaking down this week's matchups (and mis-matchups).
1. The Best Matchup of the Week
St. Louis at San Francisco: Monday and Tuesday.
The Giants have the best record in the National League in one-run games at 16-5 while the Cardinals have the worst at 5-15. As is usually the case with these kinds of extremes, the Cardinals are playing four games under their Pythagorean projection (expected won-lost record based on runs scored and allowed) and the Giants are playing five games over theirs. There is nothing saying this cannot continue like this for the rest of the year, although it would be surprising to see the Cardinals win their division in this mode. If the Cubs and Astros stay flat, however, the Cardinals will be able to weather their bullpen woes and win the division once again.
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Hats off to Joe and Jane Voting Fan for selecting the three most productive players in the National League to be the starting outfield in the All-Star game. The late rally to get Albert Pujols into the mix (at the expense of Sammy Sosa, who is in a down year) put the top three men in Runs Created per 27 outs into the starting gate:
1. Barry Bonds: 12.53
2. Albert Pujols: 11.32
3. Gary Sheffield: 9.34
In other words, a lineup composed entirely of Barry Bondses would score 12.53 runs per game. Putting it in those terms has always made it my favorite counting stat for offensive productivity, although it does not get adjusted for ballpark. Fourth in the league is Brian Giles of the Pirates, who was skipped over, in part, for some Pirate guy named Williams -- perhaps the worst All-Star pick since Alfredo Griffin was invited to play because he just happened to be hanging around the All-Star venue when someone came up injured.
2. The Superstation Denizens Matchup of the Week
Atlanta at Chi. Cubs Thursday through Sunday.
The Braves have bent their Pythagorean projection with three rather voluminous losses this season that saw them surrender 53 runs while scoring only four. The most recent of these was last Tuesday's 20-1 defeat at the hands of the Marlins. The wonderful thing about baseball is that teams can get seriously lambasted on one night and come back the next fully recovered, as the Braves did last week with a 2-1 victory on Wednesday. Here is a brief respite for those who are tired of hearing about the Braves' invincibility during the regular season. This list represents their 10 worst deficits since they began their dominance of their division in 1991:
21 runs: (22-1) June 11, 1999 vs. Baltimore
19 runs: (20-1) July 1, 2003 vs. Florida
16 runs: (16-0) June 18, 1994 vs. Cincinnati
16 runs: (17-1) April 5, 2003 vs. Florida
16 runs: (17-1) July 3, 2000 vs. Montreal
14 runs: (16-2) April 9, 2003 vs. Philadelphia
13 runs: (14-1) June 19, 1998 vs. Montreal
12 runs: (12-0) August 31, 1996 vs. Chicago Cubs
12 runs: (13-1) July 28, 1998 vs. Cincinnati
12 runs: (16-4) August 12, 1995 vs. Colorado
3. The Slugging Slugfest Slug-o-Rama Matchup of the Week
Boston at Toronto: Tuesday through Thursday.
The Red Sox improved their slugging average yet again this week, nudging it over .500. The Blue Jays have slipped down to .484, but that would still qualify as one of the best marks ever. One would assume that one of these teams would be leading the league in home runs, but that is not the case. New York and Texas have that distinction:
Team leaders in extra basehits:
Doubles: Boston 230, first; Toronto 213, second
Triples: Boston 28, second; Toronto 19, tied for sixth
Home runs: 117 each, tied for third
The Red Sox are batting .297 and the Blue Jays are at .291 -- figures that are certainly helping the bottom line of their S.A.s. Regardless of that boost, the Red Sox have an Isolated Power figure of over .200. I'm going to guess that is an all-time record as well.
4. The Weak Division Matchup of the Week
Chi. White Sox at Cleveland: Friday through Sunday.
If someone asked you to position the divisions in order of their combined records, could you do it? If you're someone who reads the standings every day (and who isn't?), I'll bet you could do a pretty good job off the top of your head. You'd probably know to place the American League Central -- an esteemed body of which these two clubs are members -- at the bottom of the standings. Removing all intradivision games from the count, here are the divisional standings:
NL East 144 110 0.567 AL West 117 98 0.544 NL West 134 123 0.521 AL East 132 124 0.516 NL Central 126 149 0.458 AL Central 103 152 0.404
On an individual basis, there are no surprises at the top and bottom of the external team records. The Braves are the best at .750. It is the competition in the best division in baseball that is dragging them down. Seattle and the Yankees are next. The bottom is just as predictable with San Diego, Detroit and Tampa Bay bringing up the rear. Detroit is interesting, in that their record outside their own division (the weakest in the sport right now) is better than it is within. The one team that is completely out of sorts is Kansas City. They are leading their division, but are miserable when competing against teams outside of it, to the tune of an 18-30 record.
5. The Cook County All-Star Matchup of the Week
N.Y. Yankees at Toronto Friday through Sunday.
Holy Joe Kennedy! Hideki Matsui is an All Star! Last week I boldly wrote, "&the fans do not appear to be doing that bad a job." Then the absentee ballots were counted and we end up with this situation. The only upside to this sham is that it keeps Torii Hunter, who is having a very run-of-the-mill season, off of the starting team. Of course, on the other hand, there is the downside of Matsui out-polling Trot Nixon, Carlos Beltran, Dmitri Young, Aubrey Huff, Garret Anderson, Milton Bradley and Melvin Mora, all of whom have created more runs per out used than he has to this point in the season. (We must wonder if Matsui would have spurred such support if he had not gotten hot recently. We may never know. One way to have found out would be Tsuyoshi Shinjo of the Mets had been on the ballot. Had he been there and had he been voted in, then that would have been cause for serious alarm.)
6. The Old School Matchup of the Week
Chi. White Sox at Detroit: Tuesday through Thursday.
Wouldn't you think that an increased chance of seeing the home team win a game would drive attendance up? Not so. The Tigers are the worst road draw in baseball. (The Marlins are the worst road draw in the National League. One would assume that is going to improve as people line up to see Dontrelle Willis as the summer goes on.)
Remember, though, that road attendance is a lot more compressed and a lot more random than home attendance. The difference between the best road draw (the Yankees, of course) and the Tigers is only 11,000 per game. The difference between the best home draw (the Yankees again) and the worst (Montreal) is 28,000. While it's obvious that the Yankees bring in fans on the road, it is not so obvious that the Tigers keep them at bay.
7. The How You Like Me Now? Matchup of the Week
Dontrelle Willis vs. Chi. Cubs: Tuesday.
It's too bad they couldn't gerrymander the rotation so that Willis would face Matt Clement, the man for whom he was traded, in part. Instead, Clement is scheduled to face Josh Beckett and Willis will go against Carlos Zambrano. We shouldn't be too hard on the Cubs for unloading Willis, should we? Seeing him in person for the first time is going to be hard enough for them without us making our little comments and whispering behind their backs.
This game should have marked Willis' first of two starts in Chicago in the coming eight days. Greg Cote of the Miami Herald suggests that his puzzling absence from the All-Star team is a conspiracy perpetrated by Dusty Baker, who is loathe to see the man who got away grabbing so much spotlight. Cote quotes Baker as saying he couldn't pick him because he hadn't seen him pitch yet. See him he will on Tuesday and, while vengeance is a hard emotion to use in a sport like baseball, this omission by Baker certainly adds an extra layer of intrigue to this game.
8. The Spotlight on Brandon Phillips Matchup of the Week
N.Y.Yankees at Cleveland: Tuesday through Thursday.
I will be the first to admit that I was on the Brandon Phillips bandwagon and wrote that the Indians, with nothing really to lose, should give him the second base job this year. On Jan. 27 of this year, Phillips told Andy Call of the Canton Repository, "I don't want to be a normal player. I want to be a star. I want to be like A-Rod. I want to be a fan favorite. I want people to come to the ballpark to see the Cleveland Indians and come to the ballpark to see me."
Given the contrast between his performance and the hopes he had for himself as well (as those he inspired in others), is it still a possibility that he could turn out to be great, given his wretched start?
No Hall of Famer has ever played a full rookie season and done as poorly as Phillips has to this point. Some, especially among the questionable Hall element, got off to poor starts, but nothing like this. Phillips currently has a .554 OPS, which is about 200 points below the league average.
When looking for a precedent, what we find are middle infielders who are in the Hall for reasons other than their ability to hit, others who were younger than Phillips' 22 years of age and therefore not as far along in their physical development and players who did not play full seasons as rookies:
Ozzie Smith had a very good rookie year. It was his second season that resembled what Phillips is doing this year. He was dragged down somewhat by Jack Murphy Stadium.
Bill Mazeroski totaled .611 in his first year of 1956, albeit in just 277 plate appearances, which was about 130 points below the league average. Mazeroski never had an OPS above the league average in his career -- just one of the many reasons it took him so long to get to Cooperstown in spite of his fielding credentials.
Brooks Robinson took a while to get his career off the ground. His first full year in the majors (1958) saw him with an OPS just under .600. He had done better than that in previous trials, but not much. It must be remembered that he was a teenager for most of that time.
George Kell was a 21-year-old third baseman who posted an OPS of .609 as a rookie. This was against war-time pitching in 1944, although the league as a whole only had a .698 mark. Kell got much better, but his HOF credentials are pretty borderline.
Luke Appling put up a .616 mark in 1931, 128 points below league average. This was in 330 plate appearances.
Frankie Frisch posted an OPS of just .537 in 1919. Two things: this was in only 190 plate appearances and he was two years younger than Phillips. Oh, and the league average was 100 points lower than it is in 2003. That's three things. Ty Cobb did about 50 points better than Frisch in his rookie year, but he was only 18, batted only about 164 times and almost met the very low 1905 league average of .634.
Ed Delahanty might be the closest thing to a Hall of Fame precedent that we can hope to find. As a 20-year old rookie with Philadelphia in 1888, he posted a .554 OPS but in only 303 plate appearances. He went on to be one of the great players of his era.
9. The Worst Non-Detroit Matchup of the Week
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee: Monday through Thursday.
Suddenly, the Brewers have more than one player worth paying money to see. Richie Sexson continues to do his thing while Geoff Jenkins remains resurgent. Scott Podsednik is not going to win the Rookie of the Year Award as long Dontrelle Willis draws breath, but he is having the best season of any position-playing rookie in the league. It's too bad he's 27, meaning he is not eligible for the mythical Most Likely to Succeed Award.
How many people would name Brian Giles as one of the five best players in the game? He is. Giles has the 11th-best OPS in baseball history, which is stunning in that he should be on the front of Wheaties boxes except that he plays in a vacuum and not so stunning in that 16 of the top 25 of all time in this category are his contemporaries. This is very much a 1990s/early 2000s number, much in the way that career ERA leaders are dominated by pitchers from 90 to 100 years ago.
10. The Biggest Mismatchup of the Week
Boston at Detroit: Tuesday through Thursday.
Will their slugging average meet the same Detroit fate this week that befell their fellow rippers, the Toronto Blue Jays last week? Comerica Park has the reputation of being a pitcher's paradise, but the Tigers are still surrendering the seventh-most runs per game there of any home team in baseball. What is dragging down the total average (to 24th among all stadiums) is their own 2.9 runs per-game offense.
11. The To Catch A Thief Matchup of the Week
Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets: Thursday through Sunday.
So-named because this matchup features two of the least-successful base stealers in baseball: Jimmy Rollins and Roger Cedeno. Here is a brief rundown of the men who have been caught at least seven times this season:
Alex Sanchez (Milwaukee, Detroit): 15 (38 attempts) It's a testament to the fact that the Brewers just may be getting smarter that they unloaded Sanchez on the Tigers. What he does right for a team's offense has not yet become apparent.
Juan Pierre (Florida): 10 (50 attempts) He has increased his attempt load significantly in the run-happy Marlins environment but without sacrificing his success ratio. It's right about where it was last year: a most-satisfactory 80 percent.
Luis Castillo (Florida): 9 (23 attempts) He's having his best year since 2000, but his running game is slipping. Not only is he way off his pace of the previous four years -- in which he averaged 38 steals per season -- he is on his way to posting his worst success rate since 1997.
Michael Tucker (Kansas City): 8 (15 attempts) Like Castillo, he's on his way to his best year since 2000 and, like Castillo, his running game has dropped to a less-than break-even proposition. He has always managed to nab two bases in three tries but not so this year.
Jimmy Rollins (Philadelphia): 7 (16 attempts) Where did the speed thing go? At this rate, he's going to steal 17 or 18 bases and get caught 14 times. This from a man who was a fantastic 46-for-54 just two years ago and a passable 34-for-47 last year. The triples are down, too.
Roger Cedeno (New York Mets): 7 (14 attempts) Sometimes a player will lower his aggressiveness on the basepaths but maintain his success rate. That was Cedeno last year when he went 25-for-29, the best percentage of his career. With even that positive gone, there is no compelling reason to keep him on a major-league roster, is there?
Torii Hunter (Minnesota): 7 (11 attempts) His offense is suffering across the board (except for his walk rate), so why not this too? At least his teammate Corey Koskie has turned it around from last year. He's 6-for-9 so far, a nice contrast to 2002's 10-for-21.
Other poor rates worth noting:
Ryan Klesko/San Diego (1-for-6), Jeromy Burnitz/NY Mets and Rondell White/San Diego (1-for-5), Alex Gonzalez/Florida, Timo Perez/NY Mets and Brandon Inge/Detroit (0-for-4).
12. The Mystery Matchup of the Week
? vs. ?
This week's clue is very short and it is this:
Washington, DC.
Last week's clue and answer:
A famous former great links this week's mystery opponents. When his big-league career began with the first opponent, the second opponent was not yet in the majors. He would spend a later portion of his career with the second team, but would not finish with them. In total, he played all but 11 games with either of these teams. To say anymore would be to give it away, but I will add he made quite a splash as a rookie.
The player was Willie McCovey and the teams were the Padres and Giants. The splash thing had to give it away.
Jim Baker writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jimbakerespn@yahoo.com.
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