Baker's Dozen: Who are the award-winners?

Breaking down the races for the MVPs and Cy Youngs along with several other individual awards.

Originally Published: July 21, 2003
By Jim Baker | ESPN Insider

Things to consider the rest of the way.

We have had our first team cross the 100-game threshold, so it is safe to say that the end is in sight. Not that I'm wishing the season would be over, mind you. I just bring this up to point out that it's time to stop thinking in terms of "half-way points" and look to what the end of the season might bring.

1. The National League MVP Race
When speculating about MVP races, there are two separate questions that need to be asked:

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  • Who should win the award?

    Who will win the award?

    To answer the first question, you state your case as to whom you think should get the hardware. The second question is answered by playing psychic and trying to figure out what the voters are going to do. This practice is based largely on an attempt to gauge what is in the air; that is, what is being written and said by those have a vote.

    With the latter in mind, my gut instinct is that Albert Pujols is the frontrunner. Three weeks ago, I wrote that the award was probably Pujols' to win because he and Bonds were more comparable than they were a year ago and voters might well be in the mood to put a new name at the top of their ballots. Bonds is still having the better season, but I think that if the vote were held today, Pujols would win it.

    2. The National League Home Run Race
    The leader, Bonds, has three main pursuers in Jim Edmonds, Mike Lowell and Pujols. A dark horse candidate might come from the next group of Richie Sexson, Adam Dunn, Jim Thome or Andruw Jones, but they have a lot of ground to cover and too many people to leapfrog.

    As an addendum to the MVP discussion, should Pujols beat the odds and cop the Triple Crown, he will not only win the award, he'll be a unanimous choice. This would be in spite of the fact that two of the three points on the crown are slowly but surely losing their hold on the public imagination. Personally, I don't care much about RBI, but for those of you who do, there is an interesting note on what Barry Bonds is doing. If he continues at his current pace, he will hit 53 home runs while driving in 109. This RBI count would mark the lowest total ever for somebody who hit 50 or more home runs breaking Brady Anderson's "record" of 110 in 1996. (Of course, Anderson spent a lot of time batting leadoff. 41 of 50 his homers came in that mode).

    Fewest RBI by 50-homer men:

    109: Bonds, 2003 (projected)
    110: Anderson, 1996
    112: Willie Mays, 1965
    113: Mark McGwire, 1996

    Among 50-plus homer men, Bonds already holds the record for the ratio of fewest RBI per home run:

    1.88: Bonds, 2001
    2.06: Bonds, 2003 (projected)
    2.10: McGwire, 1998
    2.12: McGwire, 1997

    (Jimmie Foxx had the highest rate of 3.50 in 1938 when he drove in 175 on 50 round trippers.) At 56, Bonds could also break the record for fewest RBI minus home runs among 50-homer men currently held by Anderson and Mays with 60.

    3. The American League MVP Race
    Fact: Carlos Delgado is having the best season in the league.

    Delgado
    Delgado

    Fact: The Blue Jays are not going to the postseason.

    Fact: MVP voters prefer their candidates to play in games that "matter."

    Voters like RBI, however, and Delgado certainly has his share of those. He is projecting to 164 which would be the second-highest total since Foxx's aforementioned 175 in 1938. On the other hand, the man who logged the highest total since Foxx was Manny Ramirez in 1999 and he finished third in the MVP voting in a very close race.

    Speaking of Ramirez, he is one of the quartet of players who the voters would look to should they decide not to reward the very best season. The others are Bret Boone of Seattle and Jason Giambi and Alfonso Soriano of the Yankees. As of this moment, there isn't a whole lot separating them, and they all play on teams that figure to be in the hunt until near the very end at the least.

    4. Will the Seniors continue to dominate?
    When the Marlins failed to follow minority hiring practices in the process of hiring Jack McKeon, much negative ado was made about his "advanced" age of 72.

    I thought this was deeply hypocritical in terms of considering diversity of hiring practices. Shouldn't there be diversity in terms of age as well? The truth is, the older managers are doing better this year than their younger counterparts. In fact, Jeff Torborg -- the man McKeon replaced -- is the only manager over the age of 60 who has had a losing record in 2003 so far. Felipe Alou, Bobby Cox, Joe Torre, Frank Robinson and McKeon all have their teams playing over .500. This makes them the most successful managerial demographic:

    Managers records by age (through Saturday)

    60-plus: .588
    50-59: .496
    Under 50: .470

    The 60-plus number is bound to drop a little after August 28. That is the day Lou Piniella turns 60 and his Devil Rays' 31 remaining games from that point are thrown into the mix.

    5. The ageless wonder that is Rickey Henderson
    Speaking of age, how is it that a society that it is eating its way into diabetic oblivion has produced Rickey Henderson? As was once written about Dorian Gray and Dick Clark, somewhere there is a painting of him aging away (although in this case it might be a statue rather than a painting because he still looks chiseled).

    Come to think of it, Henderson is very much a product of our processed sugar-driven society in that he says he must eat ice cream or something sweet every night before bed. What sets him apart from the rest of us -- the baseball skills aside -- is all the exercise he does. The countless push-ups and sit-ups, the running, the stretching -- for him it keeps his career alive. For the rest of us, it could mean the difference between life and death.

    While his batting average has gone completely to ruin, it is interesting to note that Henderson's power numbers are actually better between the ages of 42-44 (.133 isolated power) than 20-22 (.095).

    His return with the Dodgers means he could soon join the exclusive 300 HR/1,400 SB Club. (Let that bit of silliness be the final word on number clubs.) How safe is Henderson's stolen base record? Consider that the closest active player under the age of 30 is Luis Castillo with 243. We have learned not to call records unbreakable, but Henderson's stolen base record will remain unassailable until such time as baseball undergoes an earth-shaking change in how the game is played.

    6. Detroit's date with infamy
    The Tigers are not going to finish with a worse record than the '62 Mets or the '35 Braves or the '16 A's. In order to do that they would have to play even worse than they already have and I just don't see how that is possible. They are, however, going to get closer than any team has in a long time. In order for them to escape the ignominy of a sub-.300 winning percentage, they are going to have to jump through some hoops -- hoops that have proven to be unjumpable for them to this point.

    I think it's safe to say that avoiding 100 losses is out of the question. In order to do so, they would have win 36 of their last 65 games. Those in business know the best way to motivate someone is to set reasonable, achievable goals. What would this be for the Tigers? I would say finishing with a plus-.300 record. In order to do this they must win one of every three games for the remainder of the season, going 22-43 in the process.

    Why is this an important goal? Because, apart from those Mets and the 1952 Pirates, teams just don't lose more than 70 percent of their games anymore. It's one thing to be a laughing stock, it's another to be an anachronism.

    7. The National League Cy Young Award
    For the first time in a long time, a Cy Young Award might be handed to a reliever. What is more surprising, the reliever might actually deserve it. No starting pitchers in the National League have struck a clear and free claim on the award yet and into that vacuum have moved John Smoltz of the Braves and Eric Gagne of the Dodgers.

    Gagne
    Gagne

    Smoltz
    Smoltz

    Jason Schmidt very much deserved his starting All-Star Game gig because he has been the best pitcher in his league so far this year -- as was his starting opponent, Esteban Loaiza. The trouble is, Schmidt is a little short on the key ingredient that Cy Young voters like: wins. He's on pace to win about 17 or 18 games. There is a very similar season that did garner the Cy Young for a pitcher, Randy Johnson in 1999:

    2003 Schmidt: 17-7, 2.41 ERA, .98 WHIP (projected)
    1999 Johnson: 17-9, 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP

    Oh, there is the little matter of Johnson's 364 strikeouts. Schmidt will fall about 110-120 shy of that at his current pace. If the voters' thirst for wins or strikeouts cannot be slaked by Schmidt, the starters on pace to win 20 or more could move into consideration. The trouble is, Woody Williams of the Cardinals and Russ Ortiz of the Braves have ERAs a run higher than Schmidt and Kevin Brown of the Dodgers, another candidate. If we write off the minus-20 win crowd and the plus-3.00 ERA group, we might end up with a null set. It is this lack of a pitcher taking control of the race to this point that might pave the way for Smoltz (or Gagne should Smoltz falter) to become the first reliever since Dennis Eckersley in 1992 to win the award and the first National League reliever since Mark Davis in 1989.

    Smoltz has demonstrated an intolerance for opponent scoring that has him projecting to break the all-time saves record -- one that has lasted a surprising 13 years. That, combined with a sub-1.00 ERA and the lack of a dominant starting candidate, gives him an excellent chance.

    8. The American League Cy Young Award
    The implied requirement that the winner come from a champion is far more stringent in the MVP voting than it is in the Cy Young Award -- especially in the American League over the past eight seasons. Each of the past eight AL MVPs have played for first-place clubs while only three of the Cy Young Award winners have.

    Team finishes for the major awards, 1995-2002:

    AL MVP: 1st: 8
    NL Cy Young: 1st: 6; 2nd: 0, 3rd: 1; 4th: 1
    NL MVP: 1st: 4; 2nd: 3; 3rd: 1
    AL Cy Young: 1st: 3; 2nd: 2; 3rd: 1; 4th: 1, 5th: 1

    If past experience is any indication, this is good news for Esteban Loaiza, the pitcher having the best season to date, but who plays for a team that could finish as low as third place. Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays could finish with a serious amount of victories and has a WHIP comparable to that of Loaiza's, but he gets a full three runs more per game in support than does Esteban.

    One thing to remember about a Cy Young bid: it can go astray much faster than its MVP counterpart. Three or four bad outings can really derail a candidacy in a way that it would take a prolonged slump for a position player to experience the same downturn in fortune. Let us not forget Curt Schilling in 2002 who, at one time, seemed like a lock to either win the award or come very close to dethroning Randy Johnson.

    If Loaiza reverts, Halladay, Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson are loitering near the vacuum that would create. There is this to consider, too: somebody like Pedro Martinez could win 10 of his last 13 starts and finish at 17-4 or 17-5 with the best ERA in the league, further clouding the picture.

    9. The American League most-likely-to-succeed award
    I first considered that there should be an official award with this title when Barry Bonds broke in with the Pirates in 1986 and did not quite set the world on fire. The writers were not entirely unreasonable when they voted him the sixth-best rookie in the National League that year behind Todd Worrell, Robby Thompson, Kevin Mitchell, Charlie Kerfeld (!) and Will Clark. The mandate for the Rookie of the Year Award is this: name that player who had the best rookie season. In 1986, that was clearly Worrell.

    Now, a different question is this one: which rookie looks like he has the most promise and will have the best career? In other words, who gets that old high school yearbook title of "most likely to succeed?" In 1986, I thought that player had to have been Bonds, given all the hype he was generating and the flashes of brilliance he showed. As it turns out, by the time he is done, his career Bill James Win Shares will exceed those of the five players combined who finished ahead of him in the ROY balloting.

    Baldelli
    Baldelli

    So, then, while Hideki Matsui, a mid-career professional, is on his way to wrapping up the American League Rookie of the Year Award, what rookie deserves the ML2S Trophy? Rocco Baldelli? Mark Teixeira? Francisco Rodriguez? Rich Harden?

    The thing about this award is that one does not have to excel in order to cop it. One only has to have the promise of a great future to get it. Hence, a player like Harden can be included for consideration even if he only makes five or six starts.

    10. The National League most likely to succeed award
    The ML2S can also function as a consolation prize for a player who did not win the ROY -- provided the player is young enough. Brandon Webb is having a nice time of it with the Diamondbacks, but is going to be hard-pressed to beat out the careening bandwagon of Dontrelle Willis at voting time. He'd be a perfect candidate for the ML2S, although at 24, he's about the upper age limit of what you're looking for in predicting a nice career. This award would be better for players like Jose Reyes of the Mets or Miguel Cabrera of the Marlins.

    11. The Bonds pursuit of Hank Aaron's all-time home run record
    Recent protestations to the contrary on the part of the pursuer, I think Hank Aaron's all-time home run record of 755 is toast. Here's an unscientific, but interesting notion: what if Barry Bonds' home run totals ebbed and flowed exactly as Hank Aaron's did at the same age on a percentage basis? Would he break Aaron's record?

    Age Aaron Increase/Decrease Bonds (projected)
    38 34 -- 53
    39 40 +17.6% 62
    40 20 -50% 31
    41 12 -40% 19
    42 10 -16.7% 16

    Yes, he would, hitting about 150 home runs from this point forward so that he approaches 800 when done. Let's drop that 62 to a more realistic 40. He still gets it with room to spare. Given the advances in body shaping since Aaron's time, 150 more home runs for Bonds is nothing like a stretch. Barring a catastrophic injury (an "incident" injury like a collision or disastrous slide), the record is his for the taking. That is, unless he truly doesn't want it. Frankly, it seems hard to believe that he would walk away from the game with such a proposition still on the table.

    12. The American League batting title race
    There will come a time within the next decade that batting average will take its final step backward away from its status as the stat of first choice when describing a player. Currently, box scores list an update on players' batting averages. Of course, this tells us about a third of the story of how productive they are. A much better shorthand number to install in a box score would be OPS (on base average plus slugging average) or some derivation of that stat that redresses the importance of OBP over SA.

    Until that time comes, however, batting average keeps its tenuous hold on the popular imagination. Ichiro Suzuki is looking very solid to win his second batting title as it is likely that Melvin Mora will not be able to sustain his out-of-body, 80-points-higher-than-career .345 mark. Nobody else is even close at this point and those that are remotely in the picture (Trot Nixon and Bill Mueller among them) would have to seriously outperform themselves to get to the .350 or so it's going to take to top Ichiro.

    Jim Baker writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jimbakerespn@yahoo.com.

    Jim Baker is an author at Baseball Prospectus and a frequent contributor to Page 2. You can e-mail Jim at bottlebat@gmail.com.