Projecting greatness for the Class of 2003
Dontrelle Willis could very well be the top rookie of 2003. But who is "Most Likely to Succeed" 15 years from now?
Most Likely to Succeed:
Surely you remember the concept from high school? Perhaps you were so acclaimed. If so, don't you find it ironic that you are reading this on a computer at the public library where the sign on the front door that reads "no bedrolls" applies to people with your lifestyle?
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Oh well, what did your classmates know anyway? You're a rebel and you don't care what they think. In fact, you'd like to let them know just how badly their prediction about you went astray. If only you could hop a freight that would get you close enough to your high school reunion so you could show them the misguided choice they made -- the fools.
Your successes and failures aside, what of baseball's freshman class of 2003? How will their lives turn out? We have an award in place that will -- ideally -- identify which of them had the best rookie season. It's called the Rookie of the Year Award and it's been given out since 1947. But who will have the best career? Shouldn't there be a separate award for the rookie player who might not necessarily have had the best season but whom, through a combination of age, talent and performance, gives the indication that he might be headed for bigger and better things?
The ROY Award has never had a clear mandate and has evolved into an award for the player who has the best season whether he is a 19-year old phenom or a 29-year old import from the Japanese big leagues. It will, therefore, be incumbent on the ML2S Award to have the more defined mission. Its job is to speculate which player appears to be headed for the best career.
With that in mind, I'm afraid I will have to suggest that the award be limited to younger rookies. As much as I like the idea of the intrepid fellow who rides the Flxibles for a decade before getting his break, we have to face up to the reality that such a player is not going to have a 15-year career in the bigs. That's what the ML2S Award is all about: identifying the player who has the best chance of being productive for years and years to come and who will still be playing in 2018 and beyond. So, players must be under 25 years of age to be nominated for this imaginary hardware. That will eliminate someone like Angel Berroa -- but we have to draw the line somewhere. (This might be a good time to announce that I am throwing the award open to sponsors. Obviously, I want a piece of the action for coming up with this thing, so all sponsorship negotiations will have to start with what's in it for me.)
Who do I think should win the awards in either league? You don't think I got to where I am in the world today by making decisions, do you? You're going to pick the winners, good people. I am merely writing the ballot and nominating the candidates. Before you vote, here are a couple of Frequently Asked Questions. (Well, I'm assuming they'd be frequently asked. Nobody has actually asked them yet since this is the first you're hearing of the voting.)
Can the ML2S Award be won by the same person who wins the Rookie of the Year Award?
Yes, provided that player is under 25. There have been a number of seasons in which the player who had the best rookie year also went on to have the best career. The two are not mutually exclusive.
Can I vote for a player who is stinking up the joint?
Absolutely. If you can look beyond a rough start and see a shiny rainbow glowing with promise and joy, then by all means, select the struggling rookie. Who is to say that Brandon Phillips won't come out next year and get right with Honus? Phillips is on the ballot, although Aaron Heilman of the Mets is not owing to space considerations but you might believe Heilman will get it together in the future. You might think that Jeremy Bonderman 2003 equals Greg Maddux 1987 and deserves your vote.
How do you predict the future of pitchers?
They are enigmatic beasts whose futures cannot be seen to the naked eye, aren't they? Take Jerome Williams, Brandon Webb and Dontrelle Willis, the three top candidates for the ML2S in the National League. At this juncture, Webb -- the oldest -- is having the best season of the three, but their numbers are all somewhat similar. Willis is the youngest which can either be a blessing or a curse when it comes to a pitcher. None have been abused in terms of innings as baseball appears to have reached the tipping point on the fair treatment of young arms. Williams has the weakest K/BB ratio and the fewest strikeouts per 9 innings, but you can make your own decision. That's the fun of the ML2S voting -- you can take a flier on a guy who has yet to begun to set the world on fire and if it doesn't work out we won't know for years to come!
Can I vote for somebody who is just now starting his big-league career?
Yes. Rich Harden is on the ballot, for instance. Who is to say that some September call-up will not prove himself worthy of this esteemed award? Perhaps that's why we'll have to revisit this once again at the end of the season and do the voting all over. By then, my generous sponsor will be in place and I'll be watching the playoffs from a jewel-encrusted recliner.
Here then are the ballots. (Picture your company logo right about ... here ... looks good, doesn't it?) I have chosen the candidates based partly on performance, partly on previous promise and partly on age. If you don't like the choices I have given you, you are free to press the "None of the Above" tab. It won't be as much fun, but it's your choice.
Vote: Pitcher Most Likely to Succeed (NL)
Horacio Ramirez, Atlanta
Jose Valverde, Arizona
Brandon Webb, Arizona
Jerome Williams, San Francisco
Dontrelle Willis, Florida
None of the Above
Vote: Pitcher Most Likely to Succeed (AL)
Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit
Jason Davis, Cleveland
Rich Harden, Oakland
Francisco Rodriguez, Anaheim
Billy Traber, Cleveland
None of the Above
Vote: Position Player Most Likely to Succeed (NL)
Miguel Cabrera, Florida
Hee Seop Choi, Chicago Cubs
Xavier Nady, San Diego
Jose Reyes, New York Mets
None of the Above
Vote: Position Player Most Likely to Succeed (AL)
Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay
Coco Crisp, Cleveland
Justin Morneau, Minnesota
Brandon Phillips, Cleveland
Mark Teixeira, Texas
None of the Above
Jim Baker writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jimbakerespn@yahoo.com.
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