Users: Willis, Harden also destined for greatness
Jose Reyes and Mark Teixeira are among the players designated Most Likely To Succeed by ESPN.com users.
The Most Likely to Succeed Awards.
The results of the poll posted in last week's Baker's Dozen are finalized and I would like to thank all of you who participated. Voting is a privilege and a responsibility. Do not drink and vote. Do not drink and drive. Do not drive and vote, either.
Let's go over the categories:
Nl pitcher
Winner: Dontrelle Willis, Florida Marlins.
In spite of a recent downturn in fortunes, Willis carried the day.
Back in '03
Baseball was a-hurtin'
the way it always is.
Since time was first recorded
it's been a troubled biz.
Then along come a youngster
who kicked it in the pants.
A happy, lefty fellow
whose each pitch was a dance.
"A-ha, at last!" they said, (whoever
the hell "they" are).
"Here's what we've been waiting for
-- here's our bright new star.
Oh, lucky us that fate
has gone and sent him.
Cuz if wasn't born
we would've had to invent him."
Runner-up: Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks Webb is not only more than holding his own against rookie competition, he's among the league leaders in a number of key pitching categories. He's sixth in strikeouts per nine innings, 11th in strikeout-to-walk ratio, fifth in WHIP and fourth in average game score. He's allowed the third-lowest slugging percentage in the league and currently has the fourth-best ERA. His run support has not been great and his won-loss record is going to cost him come Rookie of the Year voting time.
AL pitcher
Winner: Rich Harden, Oakland A's.
 | |
| Harden |
Is there a ML2S poll jinx at work here? No sooner did he come out on top than Harden had his first rough outing of the year on Friday. He got cuffed around by the Blue Jays and saw his ERA rise to 3.00. Prior to that the only chink in his armor appeared to be a four-walk outing against Cleveland on July 31. Even with those walks he did not allow any runs.
Runner-up: Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers.
This is a good sign that the voters were capable of keeping an open mind about the proceedings. That makes two A's products running 1-2 in the poll. You could make the case that had the A's not traded Bonderman away, he would still be in the minor leagues, perhaps even as low as Double-A. Here he is, though, getting on-the-job training-by-fire with the Tigers. Francisco Rodriguez, who finished third, may yet have a brilliant career but, to their credit, the Angels are bringing him along slowly. A number of Mariners said Rafael Soriano deserved a spot on the ballot and they are right, he should have been included, probably at the expense of Jason Davis of the Indians.
NL position player
Winner: Jose Reyes, New York Mets.
 | |
| Reyes |
Here's the skeptics refutation of the ML2S poll jinx: Reyes has done nothing but have multiple hit games since it was posted. While a good dose of caution is in order when a player posts a decent batting average without benefit of a lot of walks, at least Reyes is not striking out a lot.
Runner-up: Miguel Cabrera, Florida Marlins.
If he's a third baseman then here is somebody who could be an All-Star for years to come. As an outfielder he'll have to contend with a more crowded field, however. His path at third is blocked for now by the Marlins' most productive player, Mike Lowell, but there is nothing wrong with him hanging around the outfield for a while since he can very obviously handle the major-league pitching scene.
The second runner-up was Hee Seop Choi of the Cubs. I would suggest that if he is going to have a decent career he is going to have to do it somewhere other than with the Cubs as they seem pre-possessed with bringing in veteran players to bolster his position. First it was Eric Karros from Los Angeles; then it was an attempt to wrest Rafael Palmeiro away from the Rangers followed by the addition of Randall Simon from Pittsburgh. Choi has not returned to form since his collision with Kerry Wood on June 7. At 24, things need to start happening for him pretty soon. (This category had the smallest pool of decent, eligible candidates.)
 |
|
|
Read Jim Baker five days a week on ESPN Insider: |
I received a lot of mail from Phillies fans wondering why Marlon Byrd was not on the ballot. As I wrote when explaining the poll, the candidates were limited to those under the age of 25. Byrd will turn 26 on Aug. 30, making him too old by a good bit. Why the age of 25? Remember, the purpose of this poll was to speculate which players are headed for the best careers, not to pick which ones were having the best season. That is the bailiwick of the Rookie of the Year Award. By putting in the age restriction, I made it easier for voters to stay focused on players who are more likely to end up in the Hall of Fame or to put together a decent career for themselves.
What are the chances that Marlon Byrd is going to make the Hall of Fame? Just about nil. What are the chances that Jose Reyes is going to the Hall of Fame? It's a long, long shot, but they are better than the chances for Byrd. Before jumping to the conclusion that I am practicing some sort of regionalism, I am not, unless that regionalism pertains to the geography of time. Let's look at this:
What has been the average age at which the very best second basemen in history played their first major-league game? Let's take the top 20 men to have played that position, excluding Jackie Robinson because he was held out of the majors owing to the color line. The average major-league debut for the best second sackers is approximately 20.5 years old. That's over four years younger than Byrd was when he made his major-league debut last season. This is significant. The only player in the top 20 who even comes close to Byrd's age is Joe Gordon who was 23 when he finally punched through the Yankee organization's talent logjam in 1938. That means that every other one of the best players at this position who went on to have the finest careers had played some major-league ball by the time they were 22.
Now let's look at Reyes' position, shortstop, and do the same thing. The average age here? At 21, it's a little older, but not by much. The big exception here is Maury Wills, who made his debut at the age of 26 (and you can probably debate his status as a top 20 player at his position). There are also four players who didn't break in until they were 23: Honus Wagner, Phil Rizzuto, Luke Appling and Ozzie Smith. That was offset by a surplus of teen debuts by great shortstops: Robin Young, Alan Trammell, George Davis, Joe Cronin and Alex Rodriguez among them. That means that of the 40 or so best middle infielders in history, only one was anywhere near Byrd's age when he broke into the bigs.
So, between Reyes and Byrd, who made their debut closer to the age at which great players generally break into the majors? Right, Reyes at 19. Does this mean he will have a better career than Byrd? Of course not. Does this mean he is most likely to have a better career than Byrd? Yes, it does -- and that is what this award is called, remember: the Most Likely to Succeed Award.
AL position player
Winner: Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers.
 | |
| Teixeira |
After a slow start, Teixeira is coming on strong and living up to his billing. If only the Rangers could develop pitching prospects the way they have come up with hitters like Teixeira and Blalock.
Runner-up: Rocco Baldelli, Tampa Bay Devil Rays Had this poll been taken a couple of months ago, Baldelli would have surely come out on top. However, he has slipped since then as one might expect from a free swinger. After watching him up close at the Trop last week, I commented to ESPN.com's own Rob Neyer that he really does have a sweet swing -- especially for a right-handed hitter, to which Rob replied: "Well, he gets to practice it enough." True enough, his walk total is not impressive but it is getting better. He only had one walk in his first 80 or so at bats and is up to 21 now. Yes, it's still only about one a week & One can envision him turning into a 25-30 homer man within a few years.
Very few of you took a chance that Brandon Phillips of the Indians will be able to recover from his disastrous rookie year to forge a nice career for himself and that may have been prudent. I discussed some all-time very good players who rose from the ashes of poor first years in the July 7 Baker's Dozen. Among them are Brooks Robinson, Luke Appling, George Kell and Ed Delahanty. They are the exceptions and not the rule.
A couple of Minnesota fans wrote in to suggest that the player most likely to succeed in all of baseball is Twins catching prospect Joe Mauer. He's only 19 and hit .400 in rookie ball two years ago so there is a lot to hope for there. Since he has yet to appear in a major-league game, look for him on next year's ballot.
Jim Baker writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jimbakerespn@yahoo.com.
- Rumors: Lack of options for John Lackey
- Keith Law: The top 50 free agents
- Olney: Miguel Cabrera market
- KEG: Early 2010 look-aheads
