Phils have a Brave ending
The matchups (and mis-matchups) of the week ahead, including a season-ending battle between NL East rivals.
1. The Best Matchup of the Week
Atlanta at Philadelphia: Friday through Sunday.
With the season coming to a close, it's time to check my preseason predictions. Let me just take a look here ... yup ... nope ... yup ... I see ... hmmm ... Well, you can't get 'em all I always say ... Oh -- you thought I was going to share them with you! No, no, no. This is a very private thing. Very personal. You understand, of course.
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One thing I will reveal is that I picked the Phillies to win the division, a choice that won't live so much in infamy as it will in foolishness. By Memorial Day, I had decided that the best course of action with the Braves was never to pick against them until they actually come in something other than first.
In conjunction with the Braves winning yet another division title, there have been a lot of lists floating around lately about consecutive championship streaks in various sports. I was curious to know how many times in these famous streaks the teams in question had the best record in their sport and did not grab the championship because of playing in a weaker division. The Braves have done very well in this regard.
Only three times in their run have they not had the best record in the National League: 1991, 2000 and 2001. The majority of the time there was an American League team with a better record, but four times, the Braves were the best in all of baseball: 1992, 1993, 1997 and 1999. They have a one-game lead in that regard over the Giants and will need it to keep home-field advantage in the NLCS.
2. The You Can't Blame the Schedulemaker for Trying
Matchup of the Week
Oakland at Seattle: Friday through Sunday.
"Back when the boys in R&D first came up with this one we all thought it was a pip. "A's vs. Mariners on the final weekend of the season? Why, it's a natural," we all said, reaching for the phone to call our travel agents to get us into Seattle on Sept. 26. Then the Mariners opened up that gaping maw of a lead and we thought we'd got it all wrong.
"We need us a correction," is what we all said. "We need that pendulum to get swung back the other way," and sure enough, that's just what happened only here's the thing: it swung too far! Not by a lot, mind you, but by just enough to render the thing no dang good."
3. The Most Poignant Matchup of the Week
Philadelphia at Florida: Tuesday through Thursday.
This is the last head-to-head series of 2004 that is going to impact the ability of both clubs to survive. The Phillies should have put the Marlins away a while ago, but have not played up to expectations their offseason activities would have suggested.
The Marlins have gone 13-7 since Mike Lowell left the lineup with a broken hand on August 31. Personally, I'm still glad to see the team decided not to trade back when the rumors were hot and heavy that they were going to do so. I think that non-move, and the signing of Ivan Rodriguez, might someday be seen as the cornerstone incidents that saved this franchise. OK, that's a bit over the top, but they were nice reversals of fortune for fans used to seeing talent walk away.
4. The What a Difference a Week Makes Matchup of the Week
N.Y. Yankees at Chi. White Sox: Monday through Wednesday.
The week could not have gone any worse for the White Sox. Well, it could have gone just a little bit worse. On Friday, they rallied in the seventh inning to overtake a two-run lead by the Royals. Other than that, the news was all bad as the Twins won every single game and opened up a 5½-game bulge in a matter of seven days.
Losing so much ground in such a short period time might seem historic in nature, but there have been worse weeks for contending teams. Here's one I'm sure many of you know: On the morning of Monday, Sept. 21, 1964, the Phillies had a 6½-game lead over both St. Louis and Cincinnati. They only had 12 games left to play. One week later, they were in second place, trailing the Reds by a full game. The Phillies kept on losing a bit more before rallying to win their last two games -- too late as it turned out as the Cardinals surged past to climax what is generally considered to be the greatest late-season collapse in history.
So, I hope that makes White Sox fans feel better.
5. The Brief Respite in the Beatings Matchup of the Week
Minnesota at Cleveland: Tuesday and Wednesday.
Before resuming their humiliation of the Tigers in Detroit, the Twins must host Cleveland, a team that was generous to them at home but has punished them in their own park. The Twins were 6-3 in Cleveland this year, while winning six of eight at home against the Indians.
Let's handicap the triple race with the understanding that the damn things happen so infrequently it's entirely possible that neither of the leaders -- Nomar Garciaparra of the Red Sox or Cristian Guzman of the Twins -- might hit another one all year. The two shortstops exist on different offensive planes, but they are very close in the one category that is guaranteed to get every real fan's blood a-boiling: triples. Heading into the last week of the season, Guzman has opened up a 14-13 lead by right of his three-smacker off of Nate Cornejo of the Tigers on Sunday.
Past performance
Say what you will about the rest of his offensive
game, Guzman is on his way to being the premier
triples hitter of his generation. Here are the top
five triples hitters whose careers were played
primarily in (or straddled) the expansion era:
Roberto Clemente, 166
Willie Wilson, 147
Lou Brock, 141
Willie Mays, 140
Willie Davis, 138
The last man to get close to that list was George Brett, whose career ended in 1993. Remember that Clemente is tied for 27th on the all-time leaderboard. Guzman is 25 years old and playing like somebody who might last another eight years if his luck on the injury front holds up. He has 56 triples so far and, if he can continue to average 12 or so for the rest of his career, he could end up in Clemente's neighborhood.
Competition
More good news for Guzman: the Tigers -- whom the Twins
play four times in Detroit this coming weekend -- have given
up the most triples in the league. They have
surrendered 45.
So, with his one-triple lead, his pedigree and his opportunity to shoot the gaps in spacious Comerica Park for 16 to 20 at-bats, Guzman has the edge. Gentlemen, place your bets.
6. The Worst Matchup of the Week
Colorado at San Diego: Friday through Sunday.
Here's a bit of fun at a sad time of the year (yes, the end of the regular season is a sad time): who will make the final out of the 2003 season? Chances are it's going to be a player from one of these two teams since they have the latest starting time of any other game. Of course, a tie in the National League Central or one of the wild-card races would extend the regular season. If not, a Padre or Rockie will have the distinction of closing out the year.
There is a buzz that the Padres are going to be vastly improved next year. I hope so for their sake, but man, I can't help spread that buzz just yet. Here we are with a week to go in the season and it's still hard to pick who's going to win some of these races. How can anybody even begin to speculate what's going to happen next year with any kind of accuracy?
Although, there is this next matchup to consider ...
7. The Future's so Bright I've Got to Wear a Miner's Lamp
Matchup of the Week
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Mets: Tuesday through Thursday.
If this is the Mets future on display then Mets fans are probably going to pine for those halcyon days of May 2003 when their collection of aging underachievers managed to play .500 for the month. Who are these players wearing Mets uniforms these days and what are many of them doing in the major leages?
This matchup puts me in mind of my baseball novel that I have been shopping around. It's called Lefty's Triumph and it's the story of a pitcher on a fictitious team called the New York Skyliners that is struggling to get to .500. On the last day of the season their record stands at 80-81 and the protagonist, a veteran pitcher named Lefty Wingert, is sent to the mound to even their record while he himself has a chance to get the third-highest win total in franchise history! Here's an excerpt from the thrilling climax:
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Lefty Wingert toed the rubber and wiped the sweat from
his brow. Heavy was his heart knowing that little
Billy Talbot was lying in a nearby hospital bed with
his own heart beating in a specially-constructed box
hanging from a wall over his head. "Modern medicine,
how strange and cruel it can be," Lefty thought to
himself while eyeing Slug Gustrom, the Pittsburgh
Gnats' best hitter.
"Win that game for me," little Billy had said through the special speaking device he used to address pro athletes who went to see him under the guise of inspiring him to survive while actually taking solace from his predicament as opposed to their own lots in life as lavishly-awarded athletes. Lefty touched the lucky monkey's paw that Billy had given him for luck. How ironic that Billy would soon get that monkey's heart to live while Lefty used its paw to bring him the good fortune he needed to reach his destiny as he third-highest single-season win producer in Skyliners' history. He looked into Squat Frimski for the signal ..."
I won't give away the ending, but I'm sure you're dying to find out what happens. Can you believe that none of the publishing houses have bitten on this thing? Man!
8. The Old School Matchup of the Week
Pittsburgh at Chi. Cubs: Friday through Sunday.
One of the things that is so appealing about baseball is the sense of connection it gives one to the past and to the future. The Pirates traveled to Chicago to finish out the 1901 season and, we can hope, may well be doing the same thing in 2101.
The Bucs and Cubs have met in a season finale some 20 times since 1901. 2003 will mark the fourth season in a row the Pirates are closing out their schedule with Chicago. In their long history together, this is unprecedented. It used to be that the Pirates usually finished their season against the Cincinnati Reds. For instance, from 1935 to 1942 and 1946 to 1952, the Pirates were either in Cincinnati to close the season or were hosting the Reds for the farewell.
With the advent of air travel and expansion to the West Coast, the old scheduling system went away leaving the season closings somewhat more random. (For instance, the Cubs and Pirates didn't finish a season together from 1945 to 1965.) It was usually planned that the so-called "Western teams" (Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Chicago and Cincinnati) would play each other to close the season. Only five times between 1901 and 1952 was this not the case for Pittsburgh.
9. The MVP on Display Matchup of the Week
Texas at Oakland: Monday through Wednesday.
Speaking of 2101, here's a bit of dialog overheard at the Tokyo Giants-Chicago Cubs World Series that year (note to aspiring writers: whenever discussing baseball's distant future, always include one foreign city and one current team with a bad getting-to-the Series track record):
Fan One: I just had the new baseball encyclopedia chip
installed in my brain.
Fan Two: I'm saving up that. Is it worth it?
Fan One: Yeah, but there are the usual side effects.
Fan Two: Like what?
Fan One: Like every once in a while I repeat myself
without knowing it.
Fan Two: Really?
Fan One: I just had the new baseball encyclopedia chip
installed in my brain.
Fan Two: Very funny.
Fan One: Anyway, what I can't figure is how Alex
Rodriguez never won an MVP Award. I mean, the guy was
a freakin' shortstop and he hit like a first baseman
for the love of Mike.
Fan Two: Best ever.
Fan One: The guy hit 50 home runs every year! What
were they thinking back then?
Fan Two: Who knows? They were pretty primitive.
10. The Biggest Mismatchup of the Week
Minnesota at Detroit: Friday through Sunday.
Earlier, I was whining about how hard it is to make a viable prediction for the following season while the current season is still in progress. Having said that, I am going to turn around and do that very thing. What is the best the Tigers can hope for in 2004?
Let's be generous and assign them three wins this week, giving them a total of 121 losses on the year. Is it unrealistic to assume they could improve by 20 games next year? It happens all the time, actually. Their other opponent this week, the Royals, are in the process of it doing it themselves. Kansas City is doing this while being outscored by its opponents, playing about four games above expectations. Using the Tigers' expected won-loss record (based on runs scored and runs allowed) as a starting point rather than their actual record, and guessing they could outperform their record next year by the same amount (about four games) as have the Royals, there's an eight-game improvement without having to upgrade the team one bit. Throw in some actual improvement (say, 10 to 12 games) and they've got a 20-game increase!
Which leaves them with what? Another 100-loss season, their third in a row. Losing 101 or 102 games looks pretty good from their prospective right about now -- it certainly beats getting worse. They can't get worse, can they? Is such a thing possible?
No, it isn't. It's probably safe to guess that the Tigers will improve by eight to 10 games in 2004. If they don't, look for Major League Baseball to take steps to wrest the team away from current ownership by whatever means necessary.
11. The Excuse to Write a Poem Matchup of the Week
Baltimore at Boston: Monday through Thursday.
Rhyme of the Would-Be Batting Champ
So there I was in mid-career
Vitae unassuming.
When Theo and the Bosox leered
And now, it seems, I'm blooming
Hot though I am it happens yet
That some who knew sometimes forget
And others never knew at all
How it is I should be called
So here's a rhyme, for I know,
My name's a subtle fooler:
It's Mueller as in chiller
And not Mueller as in cooler.
12. The Reason for Skipping Work on Wednesday Matchup of
the Week
San Francisco at Houston: Monday through Wednesday.
Did I say "skip?" I meant to say, "take hard-earned absence time." Far be it from me to throw a monkey wrench into the gears of commerce.
Now I'm not saying this just because the game is on ESPN, but there is something luxuriously decadent about a nationally televised regular season game in the middle of a work day, isn't there? It's the kind of thing that was unheard of years ago before the advent of cable. What primitive times those were.
Shouldn't the Astros be better than this? You would think that fourth in the league in runs scored and fourth in the league in ERA would land a team in a better place than in a death struggle with the Cubs for first place in the National League Central.
On the surface, you would assume that this kind of placement would get them higher than the fifth-best record in the league. Why? Well, the three teams ahead of them in ERA are 16th, (Los Angeles), 12th (Arizona) and 8th (these very same Giants) in runs scored. The teams that are ahead of them in runs scored are 9th (Atlanta), 11th (St. Louis) and 16th (Colorado) in ERA. Sure enough, the Astros are nine games below their Pythagorean projection and should have hit their magic number already.
13. The Battle for Slugging Supremacy Matchup of the Week
Boston at Tampa Bay: Friday through Sunday.
Much like the completion of many of the columns you read on ESPN.com, (like this one), the Red Sox have waited to the last minute to wrest the all-time team slugging record away from the 1927 Yankees. While they were over .500 for a while, the Sox have deflated back down into a relative tie with those Yanks at .489 and are going to need a big week to eclipse them. So, here's an argument starter: which team was more powerful? Defenders of the '27 Yanks can charge that the Red Sox had the advantage of nine bats instead of eight. Red Sox rooters can counter that the 2003 Sox have had a better Isolated Power. The Yankees hit .307 as a team while the Sox are in the .290 neighborhood. A team Isolated Power of .200 is pretty impressive.
There is the little matter of context, however. The '27 Yanks posted an IP of .182 in a league where many teams struggled to get over .100. The Red Sox are doing their work in a league where the worst team (yes, Detroit, if you must know -- haven't we humbled them enough?) is at .135. This is not to take anything away from what Boston has done. If it was so easy, somebody would have done it before this, especially back in the late '90s when scoring was through the roof.
Jim Baker writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jbakerespn@yahoo.com
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