The lucky or unlucky 13?
From Pat Burrell to the Marlins to Javy Lopez, the 2003 season was filled with plenty of intrigue.
What follows are, in no particular order, 13 big surprises from the 2003 season. Before we get to those, however, I must point out the very best surprise the season had to offer:
It was all about the baseball in 2003.
By and large, 2003 was a BS-free year. There was no labor nonsense to worry us. No talk of contraction. No scandals that come to mind other than Sammy Sosa's corked bat, and at least discussing that is, at its core, a baseball issue.
When we count the rings on the Great Baseball Tree of Life (did I really just say that?), 2003's will be especially thick. Of course, by merely making mention of this, I am begging fate to visit upon us a 2004 filled with off-the-field foolishness.
Until then, there are these:
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1. The Detroit Tigers
The Tigers? Surprising? "How can that possibly be,"
you ask? Everybody wrote them a ticket for last place
and they arrived on time -- early even -- dropping 16
of their first 17 games. So where is the surprise?
The thing of it is this: Teams that lose 106 games like the 2002 Tigers tend not to get worse. In fact, the first team ever to lose over 106 games improved so much they won the pennant. The Louisville Colonels of the American Association pulled off the greatest worst-to-first ever, going 27-111 in 1889 and winning two of three games the following year. Their situation was mitigated by the creation of a third league in 1890, an event that threw the distribution of personnel into a tizzy, so it's unrealistic to look to the 2004 Tigers to repeat that feat. But still, it was quite an accomplishment.
Since then -- not including the 2003 Tigers -- 46 teams in baseball history have played a season following a year in which they lost 106 games or more (this qualifier is used to exclude the 1899 Cleveland Spiders, a franchise that was terminated after its 20-134 season.) Of those 46 teams -- which also includes this year's Brewers and Devil Rays -- only two have managed to get worse the following season. They are these:
1964-65 Mets: A little-known (or cared about) fact is that, based on runs scored and allowed, the '63 Mets were actually worse than the '62 team. Things improved fairly well in that department in 1964, but the team still underperformed and lost 109 games. They fell back in both departments -- projected and reality -- in '65, losing 112.
1915-16 A's: In a league where the average team surrendered three walks per game, Connie Mack's band of stalwarts gave up five in 1915. This was one of the contributing factors to the team losing 109 games. The good news was that in the next season, they cut that number and improved the team ERA. The bad news was that they stopped scoring and got worse by eight games.
So this is why the 2003 Tigers qualify for one of the big surprises of 2003; they have gotten, uh, worser than any bad team ever did in the history of baseball. Not only did they outpace every team that ever lost as many or more games as they did in 2002, they also trump every other 100-loss team that ever came back for more the next year. 124 teams have lost over 100 games in a season and only 14 of them managed to get worse the following year. Yes, you guessed it, none of them ever did it by as much as the 13 games the Tigers managed to. The previous record for a 100-loss team was eight by the '16 A's mentioned above and the '41 Phillies. (St. Louis lost nine more in 1898 than they did in 1897, but they also won 10 more on an expanded schedule.)
2. Pat Burrell and Paul Konerko
For the most part these are happy surprises but, since
life is often like that, I must include some that fall
on the shadowy side of the street, as well. These two
players, for no apparent good reason at all, both fell
off the talent table in 2003. What is surprising is
that they did so smack dab in the middle of what is
supposed to be their primes.
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| Konerko |
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| Burrell |
Konerko is 27 and Burrell is 26. Neither had ever posted an OPS below .800 in their combined seven full seasons in the majors and both had to rally to pull their number up over .700 in 2003.
Now the question is: who will show up wearing their uniforms next spring?
3. The Atlanta Braves
This just isn't done. Teams just don't up and
surrender 30 percent more runs than they did the year
before and still manage to finish in first place both
years, right? I mean, not without a fundamental change
in the nature of the game or a change in home park,
right?
No, they don't. In fact, prior to the Braves in 2003, it's only happened one other time. In 1910, the Philadelphia A's gave up all of 440 runs while playing 150 games. They won the American League by 14½ games over the Highlanders. The next year their record was practically the same and they beat out second-place Detroit by 13½ games. The difference was that their pitchers allowed 601 runs the second time around, pitching just one more game. This represents a 37 percent increase; a record for a team that was repeating a first-place finish.
There is an explanation, though. (Isn't there always in this business?) 1911 was a milestone year in that it saw an increase in scoring across the board. American League scoring went up almost 27 percent that year (a percentage roughly approximated by the A's offense), so, while the A's were above that, a good portion of their increase can be attributed to the prevailing conditions.
The Braves have no such excuse. Major league scoring is up negligibly from last year so they can't fall back on an environmental loophole. At the same time, they can brag that their offense has grown by over 25 percent under the same circumstances.
That leads us to ...
4. Javy Lopez
A 32-year-old catcher whose OPS number has dropped
three years in a row wouldn't seem like a good bet to
become the greatest single-season home run hitter at
his position since Josh Gibson roamed the earth, but
there it is.
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| Lopez |
An offseason training program gave him the appearance of a player you wouldn't think was a catcher unless you saw him don the tools. He added .300 points to his slugging average, a stunning achievement. If this were the early 1950s when MVP voters caught a catching bug, they would ignore Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols and Gary Sheffield and give the award to Lopez. Instead, he'll finish fourth or fifth -- about where he should.
5. Esteban Loaiza
Like the baby found on the doorstep who turns out to
be royalty, Loaiza had no home when last season ended.
What is more, prior to 2003, he we was what we used to
call a "High ERA Specialist" back in my neighborhood. There used to be a
stereotype that it took lefties a long time to find
themselves. Maybe we can start a counter-myth about
righties using Loaiza and Livan Hernandez of the Expos
as prime examples.
6. Rheal Cormier
Cormier brought almost nothing to the table for the
Phillies in 2002. What is worse, that nothing cost
them something close to $3 million. Here was a 36-year-old middle reliever coming off a complete wreck of a
year in which his ERA was one and a-half runs above
league average and who had only posted ERAs below 4.00
twice in his life.
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| Cormier |
What is the best the Phils could expect in 2003? What happened is that he was arguably their most valuable pitcher this season. He won all eight decisions and cut his 2002 ERA by two-thirds. On the negative side, he did blow three saves in four opportunities and now has a career mark of two saves in 20 chances, which has to be a futility record of some sort.
7. Jack McKeon and the Florida Marlins
Raise up your hand if you picked the Marlins to go the
postseason (and your vote doesn't count, Mrs. Pierre).
Now raise up your hand if you wrote them off after the
first six weeks ... that's what I thought ...
8. Barry Bonds
Not what Bonds has done on the field -- that has long
since become routinely spectacular -- but the
transformation of Bonds into a sympathetic figure in
and by the national media. That he had to grieve
publicly for his lost father put the media into a
position whereby they were forced to acknowledge him
as a noble and sorrowful warrior.
9. Scott Podsednik
This Rookie of the Year candidate was so far off the
charts at the beginning of the season he didn't even
rate an entry in Baseball Prospectus and the guys at
BP do a great job of being extremely inclusive. I
myself was referring to him as "Posedink" for the
first month of the year in a kind of dyslexic,
not-really-paying-attention-to-him kind of way.
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| Podsednik |
How's this for a trip to the top? A year in rookie league; a year at short-season A; a year at Class A; another year at A; another year at A with a taste of Double-A; a year at Double-A spoiled by injury; a year at Triple-A with a cup of coffee followed by another year at Triple-A with another cup of coffee. And then, breakthrough! Not the kind of career path you'd prefer, was it?
It's a great story and gives hope to us all, especially those of us who have our dreams deferred but keep after them. I don't want to be the one to throw a stick grenade into the middle of the group hug, but beware the 27-year old rookie. It's a tough place from which to launch a decent major league career.
10. Mark Loretta and Bill Mueller
How out of context with his career is Mark Loretta's
2003 season? Quite a bit, obviously. How out of
context is it with it the careers of players of his
type? Let's use two of Bill James tools to give us an
idea. First, we can look at the ten most-similar
players to Loretta through the age of 30, the age at
which he finished 2002. Baseball-reference.com has
this list which uses James' Similarity Scores for its
determination. Let's keep an eye on quality and
quantity of seasons after 30 for this group:
1. Eric Young (1992 to present): EY of Rutgers has been a pretty decent player since turning 31, but he has come nowhere near turning in a season as good as Loretta's. His best would have been either '98 with the Dodgers (17 Win Shares) when he was 31 or two years later with the Cubs (18).
2. Tony Piet (1931-38): He got 80 at bats at the age of 31 and never played in the majors again.
3. Andy High (1922-34): One more year as a passable regular and then it was utility work and drifting around the National League the rest of the way.
4. Bip Roberts (1986-98): The Bipster lasted four more seasons, never posting more than 11 Win Shares.
5. Marty Barrett (1982-91): He was pretty much done as a regular after getting 687 plate appearances at the age of 30. Was done completely at 33.
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| Mueller |
6. Bill Mueller (1996 to present): His all-time high in Win Shares previous to 2003 was 18 with the Giants in 1998. This year, he's having a season comparable to Loretta's, bettering that by about a third. Of this similarity group, he and Loretta are easily posting the best seasons after the age of 30. It will be interesting to see if either or both can maintain something near that level in 2004 and 2005.
7. Fresco Thompson (1925-34): He was better known as an executive and after-dinner toastmaster than as a player. He was essentially done at 30, getting only one more at bat with the '34 Giants.
8. Billy Sullivan (1931-47): A career utility man, he never once qualified for the batting title in 12 seasons in the majors. He lost three seasons to World War II, effectively wiping out most of his post-age 30 career.
9. Rance Mullinicks (1977-1992): There's a name you haven't heard in a while and you'll thank me for having reminded you of it because it's so much fun to say. Another long career without benefit of ever qualifying for a batting title. His playing time and effectiveness dropped to nil by age 35.
10. Bobby Adams (1946-59): I am going to confess that I don't believe I've ever heard of Adams before this and I don't know whether I should be ashamed of that or not. Adams was a second baseman with the Reds in the late '40s and early '50s who once led the league in at bats. After the age of 30, he did the inevitable fade and drift, posting 14 Win Shares at 31, 12 at 32 and then a handful each of the next four seasons.
So, what we have learned from this is that players like Loretta who reach the age of 30 are either on their way down or on their way out and that what he has done in this context is pretty extraordinary. He not only reversed a downward trend in his own career that would have probably ushered him out of baseball in two or three years, but he broke the stereotype of the fading infielder in the process. Ditto for Mueller.
11. The Chicago Cubs
The Cubs winning the division is probably not *that*
big of a surprise. That the Astros played so far
beneath their potential -- essentially handing Chicago
the title on a silver salver -- certainly was,
however. The bigger surprise will come if they reach
the hollowed ground of the World Series, especially if
they meet their Flying Dutchman counterpart from the
American League, Boston. According to the odds set by
the bookmakers, a Cubs-Red Sox matchup is probably
about the eighth or ninth-most likely among the
sixteen possibilities. Which brings us to this:
When Last They Met
When last they met, the world was cleaved
With millions dead and youth aggrieved
Mere babes entombed in sodden trench
While in the States, Babe rode the bench
No fielder yet -- that was coming
For now he sent the speedballs humming
And soldiers sang of Tipperary
Belleau was the Wood -- not Kerry
Forward fast four score and five
It's autumn, yes, yet both survive
In this better world that we abet
Better than when they last met?
12. The Kansas City Royals
Every year one team or another improves by 20 games.
The fact that it happens shouldn't surprise us, but it
always seems to. That's because, while you know that
some team is going to do it, figuring out which one
is just about impossible (with the possible exception
of Houston from 2000 to 2001). When the Royals began
the season with a starting staff that had a combined
two days of major league pitching experience or
something like that, they certainly didn't look like
the team that would make the score.
On the converse, there are, almost invariably, teams that topple by 20 games from one season to the next. The fall of the World Champion Angels was foreseen by many, but not to the extent they eventually dropped off. People like ESPN.com's Rob Neyer warned that their brand of high average/low walk baseball was prone to fluctuations. A 10 to 12 game fall seemed reasonable, but 22 is pretty surprising.
13. The Rest
The wonderful thing about baseball is that each season
is a repository of surprises. There were certainly
others that could each generate an entire column unto
themselves. To name but a few, there are: Rod Beck's
rise from Triple A/RV living to excellent closer; Alex
Cintron establishing himself on the major league
scene; Randy Johnson's downturn on the mound and
improbable home run at the plate; Colby Lewis posting
a winning record for the Rangers in spite of an ERA of
7.30; unheralded Brandon Webb joining the Diamondbacks
rotation on April 27 and posting one of the best
seasons in the league; Melvin Mora of the Orioles
discovering the wonders of accelerated plate
discipline; Shiggy Hasegawa's 1.48 ERA; Ichiro
Suzuki's collapse down the stretch and Joe Borowski's
emergence as the Cubs closer.
Jim Baker writes Monday through Friday for ESPN Insider. He can be reached at jbakerespn@yahoo.com
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