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Originally Published: September 9, 2004

NL wild-card breakdown

The Astros and Marlins have turned the NL playoff race into a free-for-all with five teams competing for one spot.

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By Buster Olney
ESPN The Magazine
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The St. Louis Cardinals probably will clinch their division by early next week, and Los Angeles and Atlanta would have to completely collapse to miss the playoffs. So there is one spot open, the wild-card berth, with five teams packed together, separated by only two games.

Houston Astros
Why they could win the wild card: The Houston offense is piling up runs by the dozens. During the Astros' current 12-game winning streak, they've scored eight runs or more in nine games. Carlos Beltran has nine homers in his last 15 games, third baseman Mike Lamb is hitting like Mike Schmidt, and Lance Berkman has a .429 average in his last six games.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Their rotation has Roger Clemens, Roy Oswalt, and Three Other Guys, otherwise known as Brandon Backe, Carlos Hernandez and Pete Munro. And their bullpen is not deep. The pitching won't be a problem so long as the Astros are scoring runs in double-digits.

Telltale number: Houston's on-base average of .348 is second-best in the NL.

Checking the schedule: Not easy. Six of their last 18 games are against St. Louis, and they have a three-game series in San Francisco Sept. 21-23.

Difference maker: Backe has made four starts and pitched effectively since switching from the bullpen, allowing 23 hits and eight walks in 23 innings, with a 3.13 ERA. The Astros have to have more of the same.

Their gift from the baseball gods: Because the Astros are relying on unproven starting pitchers at the back end of their rotation, they are lucky to have Clemens, who can help motivate and prepare on the days he's not pitching.

Their burden from the baseball gods: It's an old team. Stuff happens to old teams, like strains and pulls and tears.

San Francisco Giants
Why they could make the playoffs: They've got Barry Bonds leading the most prolific offense in the NL. The Giants lead the NL in runs scored (742), walks (622), total productive outs (197), and fewest strikeouts (744).

Why they might not make the playoffs: The Giants' starting pitching is a roll of the dice. Veterans Brett Tomko and Kirk Rueter can be good, or much less than that, and rookie Brad Hennessey has allowed 35 hits and 10 walks in his first 23.2 innings this season. They need Jason Schmidt to dominate.

Telltale number: In Schmidt's last three starts, however, he has allowed 18 runs in 14.1 innings. He says his strained groin is not a problem; we appreciate the fact he is not making excuses.

Checking the schedule: Their next six games are against Arizona and Milwaukee, and they need to take advantage, because they'll see nothing but contenders the rest of the way.

Difference maker: Dustin Hermanson was a closer in college, was drafted as a closer by the Padres, and now he's come full circle, returning to that role in a pennant race. He's converted 10 of 12 chances, and opponents are hitting .224 -- and Giants manager Felipe Alou will work him hard.

Their gift from the baseball gods: Bonds has an on-base percentage of .611, a slugging average of .830, and 197 walks and 31 strikeouts.

Their burden from the baseball gods: With so much of the Giants' relatively modest budget plugged into Bonds' direct-deposit, they don't have a lot of depth in their rotation or bullpen.

Chicago Cubs
Why they could make the playoffs: Mark Prior hasn't pitched like Mark Prior yet, but he still could become Mark Prior. And the same is true with Kerry Wood.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Prior and Wood have not been Prior and Wood, combining for an 11-10 record. And the Cubs' defense and fundamentals can be embarrassingly atrocious, a serious problem in close games late in the season.

Telltale numbers: Chicago ranks first in the NL in homers (198), but only 11th in on-base percentage (.326); among contenders, only the Cardinals have more strikeouts. All or nothing.

Checking the schedule: A killer. They've got 26 games in the next 24 days, two doubleheaders with the Marlins, a finishing three-game series in Atlanta. Sure, they have a nice portion of games against the likes of Pittsburgh, the Mets and Cincinnati, but it's not as if the Cubs have dominated bad teams lately.

Difference makers: Prior and Wood. Wood and Prior.

Their gift from the baseball gods: Pound-for-pound, the most talented team among the wild-card contenders.

Their burden from the baseball gods: There are only two teams believed to be suffering from a jinx. As Steve Bartman can attest, the Cubs are one of those.

Florida Marlins
Why they could make the playoffs: Nobody among the NL wild-card teams can match the quality or depth of their pitching right now. Carl Pavano is a Cy Young Award contender, Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett have started pitching like Cy Youngs, and the back end of the bullpen is daunting with Guillermo Mota and Armando Benitez. And it doesn't hurt that Juan Pierre and Miguel Cabrera are hitting .364 and .339 since the All-Star break, and Paul Lo Duca has a .311 average and .376 on-base percentage since becoming a Marlin.

Why they might not make the playoffs: Hurricane Frances already complicated the Marlins' schedule, and now Hurricane Ivan could approach Florida as the team prepares to play five games at home against Montreal next week. The Marlins already have 28 games to play in 25 days, so their advantage in starting pitching is already compromised. A suggestion for Major League Baseball: Prepare to move the five games to Montreal. Right now. Don't wait and create another debacle like that of the Tampa Bay-Yankees. And let's face it -- games in Olympic Stadium are like playing in a neutral site, anyway.

Telltale number: The Marlins' staff ERA in August was 3.22, about a run lower than in July -- and their ERA is 3.25 in September.

Checking the schedule: The Marlins have seven games left with Philly, a team they routinely trounce, and eight with Montreal, along with two series against the Braves.

Difference makers: The youngsters who get the chance to pitch in the upcoming doubleheaders, like Logan Kensing, who is scheduled to throw against the Cubs Friday.

Their gift from the baseball gods: They are young, so while they must play a lot of games, they've got the juice and the adrenalin to deal with it.

Their burden from the baseball gods: Hurricane season in south Florida.

San Diego Padres
Why they could make the playoffs: They've got good pitching, with Jake Peavy, David Wells and Brian Lawrence in front of a good bullpen. And Phil Nevin seems to have at least temporarily put aside his gripes about Petco Park and mashed the ball lately.

Why they might not make the playoffs: They haven't gotten really hot all year, and they have to double-up in games against division rivals the rest of the way -- home and home series with San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Padres cannot afford to be splitting series and games the rest of the way.

Telltale number: The Padres are 36-36 at home this year, the worst of any of the contenders.

Checking the schedule: We'll probably know very quickly whether San Diego can hang in the race. They started a brutal 11-game road trip that opens with four games in Colorado -- where pitching staffs can get badly knocked around, even in victory -- before they play four games in L.A. and three in San Francisco. This is it.

Difference makers: Adam Eaton and Ryan Klesko. When those guys are going well, the Padres have a deep rotation and deep lineup. When they flounder, the whole structure seems pretty thin.

Their gift from the baseball gods: David Wells might be a pain, but in times of pressure, he can be as good as there is.

Their burden from the baseball gods: Sure, they see Arizona twice among their final three series. But as the Padres' current schedule stands, they are likely to face Randy Johnson twice in the last week -- on Sept. 26, and October 2nd.

Buster Olney is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine. His book, "The Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty," is on the New York Times Best-Seller List and can be ordered through HarperCollins.com.