Rose's reinstatement remains a mystery

Originally Published: August 22, 2003

What Bud Selig will eventually decide to do with Pete Rose remains as unclear as ever.

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By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com
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Let's say this again: We admire the folks at Baseball Prospectus and what they do. Nevertheless, every reliable source we've spoken to about the Prospectus' report on Pete Rose continues to be adamant that it was incorrect, about virtually everything.

Do we expect Rose to be reinstated sometime in November, barring unforeseen circumstances? Yes. But the big question is exactly what Rose will admit to and exactly what he'll say he was sorry for.

Remember, Rose is a guy who accepted a plea bargain tantamount to a lifetime suspension, then said he thought he was agreeing to a one-year suspension. So he's as good at putting his own spin on things as anyone we've ever known.

But sources close to the case couldn't be more firm that Rose will have to admit to specific misdeeds (i.e., betting on baseball) and be specific about what he's issuing his apology for. And one source said there's "not a chance" the agreement will be so general that Rose will be able to claim he hadn't changed his story in 14 years.

What figures to be more general is the section of the agreement that stipulates what jobs Rose will and won't be permitted to take in baseball. Limits on that one can be controlled simply by requiring the commissioner to approve any position.

People in Cooperstown are passionate when it comes to talking about Pete Rose.

The other Rose question that will hang over everyone for the next few months is whether we'll see Rose on the Hall of Fame ballot this winter. And that will be directly dependent on when Rose gets reinstated, assuming he does.

Ballots normally are in the mail before Thanksgiving. And according to Hall of Fame vice president Jeff Idelson, it takes several weeks to put together the new ballot and biographical sheets that are mailed with every ballot. So if Rose isn't reinstated in early November, the chances that he'll appear on this ballot are probably slim.

Of course, given all the speculation about a November reinstatement, it's hard to imagine that Rose's ballot info wouldn't be gathered with the other candidates' bios, just in case. If Rose doesn't make this ballot, he would have only two remaining years to appear on the writers' ballot. After that, if he isn't elected, his candidacy would be turned over to the Veterans Committee.

Waiver Rumblings
It's surprising how few trades we've seen this month, considering that nine of every 10 players who have been placed on waivers have skated through. As recently as two years ago, one of every four was being claimed.

Nevertheless, with barely more than a week left in this waiver trading period, there still are some name players who haven't even been floated out there in waiver land yet, according to a bunch of baseball sources. Here's our updated list of some of the players who have cleared, have been blocked or haven't jumped in the waiver waters yet:

Phillies Rumblings


	Burrell

One fascinating theory in Philadelphia on Pat Burrell's troubles is that, in a bizarre sort of way, Jim Thome's presence hasn't had the effect it was supposed to have -- which was to take pressure off Burrell.

"Some guys might say, 'There's less pressure on me because Thome's here,' " says Phillies assistant GM Mike Arbuckle, who picked Burrell No. 1 in the 1998 draft. "But with Pat's pride and approach, it's almost like he said to himself, 'We went out and got those guys, so now I want to do even better.'

"I don't anyone to think I'm saying that getting Jim Thome was a negative, because obviously it was anything but. But I do think Pat put pressure on himself. He thought, 'Thome's the left-handed power guy, and I'm the right-handed power guy. And we can put on this unbelievable show and take this club all the way.'

"Even back to spring training, Jim would hit balls in BP out on the street, and then Pat would step up and hit them over the trees. At the time, you're thinking that's a positive, that he's so competitive that these guys would feed off each other. I think that was Pat's intent. But once he got into this rut, he knew what he wanted to do mentally, but adrenaline kept taking over and his body just couldn't do it."

Burrell's response: "I'm certainly not trying to keep up with Jim. This guy had 52 home runs last year and has done it consistently for 10 years. I looked at it more as a chance to learn and kind of just a watch-him-in-order-to-help-me type situation. But no, I wasn't trying to keep up with the Big Man. No."

To read more on Pat Burrell's struggles in Philadelphia this season, click here for Jayson Stark's full report.

In a span of about 20 minutes last Sunday, Jose Mesa failed to close out a game with a three-run lead, kicked a fan, broke a table and shoved always-professional Philadelphia Inquirer baseball writer Jim Salisbury. And if that's not a sign that Mesa is getting testy about the prospect of not finishing the 14 more games he needs to vest his $5.95-million option for next year, then it's at least a sign he's getting testy about how his manager is using him.

But in Mesa's case, Larry Bowa gave Mesa every opportunity to keep his job -- and only took it away when Mesa's ERA (now 6.06), his whopping rate of baserunners per nine innings (15.8) and his general ineffectiveness had made him the least reliable closer in either league. And there's nothing wrong with the manager requiring him to earn the right to reclaim that job.

If Mesa believes there's now some organizational conspiracy to keep him from vesting his guarantee for next year, GM Ed Wade doesn't want to hear it.

"That's not an issue, and I don't think it should be," Wade says. "Larry should use him the way he wants to use him, and no one has ever told him otherwise."

Whether Mesa vests that option or not, the Phillies have quietly been assembling a list of free-agent relievers who could fit next year as either a closer or set-up man. And it now appears that two relievers who have pitched for pitching coach Joe Kerrigan before -- Tom Gordon and Rod Beck -- could be right at the top of that list.

Cleared and tradeable
Pitchers
Livan Hernandez
John Thomson
Freddy Garcia
Brian Anderson
Sterling Hitchcock
Pat Hentgen
Andy Ashby
Aaron Sele
Danny Graves
Jose Jimenez
Mike DeJean
Antonio Alfonseca
Steve Sparks

Bats
Jeff Conine
Tony Batista
Jason Kendall
Tony Clark
Juan Castro
Adam Kennedy
Rafael Palmeiro

Pitchers blocked
Javier Vazquez, Jason Johnson, Bartolo Colon, Esteban Loaiza, Joe Kennedy, Victor Zambrano, Ben Weber, Kerry Ligtenberg.

Bats blocked
Richie Sexson, Jose Vidro, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Beltran.

Hadn't been placed on waivers yet
Kelvim Escobar, Jeff D'Amico, Odalis Perez, Kevin Jarvis, Mark Loretta, Rondell White, Reggie Sanders, Brian Giles, Adrian Beltre, J.D. Drew (on DL), Juan Gonzalez (on DL), Fernando Vina (on DL).

Incidentally, several reports have circulated lately that Escobar had cleared waivers. But an official of one interested team now says that isn't true.

More Rumblings & Grumblings

Of all the potential options for what to do with the Expos, one you hear hardly mentioned is allowing them to play next year in Washington on a temporary basis. People around the Expos believe that is currently being discussed, but it's highly unlikely.

One prominent baseball man wonders whether that, in some ways, might be almost an ideal scenario, since it would let baseball "see what kind of support they might get in Washington and help determine the impact on Baltimore."

However, when we advanced that theory earlier in the year to one baseball official, he dismissed it, saying: "Suppose, back in the 1960s, you had moved the Kansas City A's to Oakland for a year on a 'temporary' basis. Would that have told you anything about how a permanent team in Oakland would affect the Giants? I doubt it."

As much as we would like to see baseball move faster to get the Expos settled, we will concede this much: The people who hammer MLB over being too slow to move the Expos, but give the NFL a free pass on its interminable tap dance around putting a team in Los Angeles, drive us nuts. It never ceases to astound us how the NFL is constantly being held to a lower standard than MLB, on just about everything. There's more to life than TV ratings.

We applaud the Royals for hanging onto Carlos Beltran and trying to win this year when they had a chance. But there's as much a chance of George Brett playing for the Royals a year from now as there is of Beltran playing for them.

An official of one club who recently spoke with Beltran's agent, Scott Boras, says that Boras has set an asking price on Beltran of eight years, $15-18 million a year. Which would come to anywhere between $120 million and $144 million. No chance. Not in Kansas City. And probably nowhere. So the minute their season is over, the Royals will step up efforts to deal Beltran before his walk year.

"He's a really good player," says one scout. "But to me, he's not a 'name.' He's not a name you can attach to a city, like (Derek) Jeter with New York or A-Rod going into Texas. You put Carlos Beltran in a place like New York, he'd get swallowed up."

One executive believed to be on the Reds' list of general manager candidates has been telling people the Reds currently have 75 names on that list. "And that," laughs another executive who is believed to be a candidate, "is the short list." There continues to be massive speculation about Braves assistant GM Frank Wren, whom Reds COO John Allen was inquiring about during his trip to the All-Star Game. But if the Reds are going to consider that many candidates and don't look beyond the usual suspects to include names like Giants assistant GM Ned Colletti, Twins assistant GM Wayne Krivsky, Marlins VP Dan Jennings and Phillies assistant GM Mike Arbuckle, there's something amiss.

It's hard to understand why the Yankees didn't trade Todd Zeile, as classy and professional as baseball players get, instead of abruptly releasing him last weekend. Zeile wound up with seven clubs interested in him as soon as the Yankees bounced him. He chose the Expos, his 11th team since 1995, mostly because of the opportunities they presented both to play and win.

Zeile's claim to fame may be as the answer to the trivia question, "Who homered for the most different teams?" But he's also closing in on becoming one of just six active infielders (and the only one who wasn't primarily a first baseman) with 2,000 hits, 250 homers and 1,000 RBI. The only other active infielders in that club: Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Andres Galarraga, Rafael Palmeiro and Fred McGriff.

The Yankees subplots never end. If they don't win the World Series, the question won't be whether owner George Steinbrenner fires somebody. It will be who ... and how many. Judging by his public comments lately, one guy who is clearly worried is pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre. But Stottlemyre's departure could have a direct impact on the makeup of next year's pitching staff. Free agent Andy Pettitte has told friends that if Stottlemyre and Roger Clemens are gone next year, he would just as soon pitch closer to home (i.e., Houston) as return to New York.

It's amazing how many people in baseball still think the Cubs will erupt to win the NL Central, because of their pitching, the rebirth of Sammy Sosa and the moves by GM Jim Hendry to plug their lineup holes. But contrary to popular opinion, their one fatal flaw hole might not be their offense. "I don't like their defense," says one NL scout. "Kenny Lofton's not very good in center field anymore. Moises Alou can't move like he used to. So to me, their outfield defense is terrible. Some balls have been dropping out there that have really hurt them."

If the Devil Rays were in the AL Central, could they be next year's Royals? Well, that's a moot question because that realignment thing isn't happening. But through Thursday, the Rays were 19-15 since the All-Star break, had a better record since July 1 (25-21) than the Red Sox (25-22) and have become no fun to play.

"Lou Piniella is the manager of the year," says one AL scout. "Oh, he won't get it. But that team has improved so much, because of Lou and (hitting coach) Lee Elia, it's amazing. Lee Elia is the best hitting coach in the league, and he's helped four or five guys on that club significantly. But the biggest change in that team over the last month is, they're ticked off when they lose now. They don't accept losing anymore. And that's all Lou."

Is there any more underappreciated team in the whole sport than the Mariners? The American League conversations always seem to start with the Yankees, Red Sox and A's. But the Mariners, says one scout, are "the most complete team in the league -- maybe in both leagues. The only thing that would worry me is that they're the best full-season team. They're not necessarily the best playoff team."


	Willis

Four pitchers whom scouts report are starting to show signs of wearing down: Dontrelle Willis, Gil Meche, Brad Lidge and Octavio Dotel.

Brewers-Cubs games are always the baseball event of the year in Milwaukee. Imagine them now that the dastardly Randall Simon is a Cub.

Joe Mauer, the first player picked in the 2001 draft, may not win the minor-league player-of-the-year award. But he's well on the way to going down as the best high school catcher ever picked near the top of the draft. A scout who just caught him playing in Double-A says he'll be in Minnesota by next year this time. And that's only because the Twins don't want to rush him, at age 20.

"He has such professional at-bats, I'd describe him as a cross between John Olerud and Todd Helton," the scout says. "He takes borderline pitches other guys hack at. Then he gets a better pitch and does something with it. He reminds me of Olerud the way he stand at the plate and holds his hands."

We often look at pitchers' won-loss records and ask this question: What if every starter had Erig Gagne as his closer? What would their records look like?

So even though we acknowledge that innings per start, run support and set-up men also have an impact on those records, we thought we'd present the starting pitchers in each league who have had the most saves blown for them -- and what their records would look like if they'd won those games:

The great Sparky

Who among us doesn't miss Sparky Anderson's inimitable way with words? So when he stopped by to visit the Tigers in Anaheim last weekend, he described the Tigers' current plight better than anyone we've heard.

Booth Newspapers' Tigers beat man, Danny Knobler, reports that Anderson thinks the Tigers' problem is having too few veteran stabilizers.

"It's impossible to build a solid contender just from kids," Anderson said. "Those other teams are spending all the money. When you're spending all your time with kids, they're getting animals (to play against). And animals eat kids."

National League
7 Kip Wells, Pirates (12-6)
5 Tom Glavine, Mets (13-11)
5 Garrett Stephenson, Cardinals (12-11)
5 Danny Graves, Reds (9-13)
4 Carl Pavano, Marlins (13-11)
4 Jeff D'Amico, Pirates (12-11)
4 Adam Eaton Padres (11-9)
4 Ryan Dempster, Reds (7-7)

American League
6 Darrell May, Royals (12-6)
5 Pedro Martinez, Red Sox (14-3)
5 Jeff Weaver, Yankees (11-9)
5 Jeremi Gonzalez, Devil Rays (11-6)
5 Brian Anderson, Indians (14-8)
4 Tim Hudson, A's (16-4)
4 Roger Clemens, Yankees (16-6)
4 Derek Lowe, Red Sox (15-5)
4 Tim Wakefield, Red Sox (13-5)
4 Nate Cornejo, Tigers (9-11)
4 Jake Westbrook, Indians (9-7)
* Statistics are through Wednesday

Unlike the National League, bullpens will have a direct impact on the AL Cy Young Award race. Check out what the records of Pedro Martinez and Tim Hudson, in particular, would be if their bullpens had been more reliable.

Finally, it isn't just scouts -- and the Marvin Millers of the world -- who have been overlooked by the Hall of Fame. Shouldn't there be some kind of wing in the Hall to honor people who changed the game in some meaningful way, even if they didn't do it in a uniform?

And if there should, then we agree fully with all-knowing ESPN baseball guru Gus Ramsey -- that people like Dr. Frank Jobe belong in the Hall of Fame.

If Jobe hadn't literally invented Tommy John surgery, think how different baseball would look -- without John Smoltz, Kerry Wood, Mariano Rivera, Matt Morris, David Wells, Matt Mantei and Jason Isringhausen in it, among many others. If you thought there wasn't enough pitching with them, just contemplate the state of modern pitching without them.

Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.