Dodgers, A's in best bullpen shape

Originally Published: September 12, 2003

It's almost October, and the Dodgers and A's appear to have the top bullpens among each league's contenders.

Email Print Share

By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com
Archive

The last 10 World Series winners had a closer who averaged 36 saves and a 2.67 ERA. Only two of the last 10 World Series winners had a closer who blew more than five saves all season.

Eight of the last 10 World Series champs had a bullpen crew with a total ERA under 4.00. And just two failed to convert at least 70 percent of their save opportunities.

So if you don't see where we're coming from here, not even Rand and McNally could draw you this road map. The moral of this story, as Bob Lemon once said, is that the two most important things in life are "good friends and a strong bullpen." And when you reach October, even friends don't matter much.

Fifteen teams are rumbling down the stretch, trying to fit themselves into eight playoff spots. We can't guarantee that the team with the best bullpen will win. But history tells us that the team with the worst bullpen usually doesn't.

That doesn't augur well for the Cardinals, the Royals or (uh-oh) the Red Sox. But after surveying a bunch of players and scouts in both leagues, here is how we would rate the bullpens of those contenders:

RANKING THE BULLPENS
National League	American League
1. Los Angeles Dodgers The best bullpen on earth, no matter how you analyze it. The closer, the great Eric (Game Over) Gagne, is 50 for 50 in saves, has allowed six hits all year with men in scoring position and has allowed no hits since July 2 with men on base. But it's the set-up crew that makes this bullpen so untouchable. Guillermo Mota leads all NL set-up men in innings pitched (93 1/3) but has the lowest ERA of any of them (1.45). Paul Quantrill has the third-best set-up ERA (1.78). Hitters are 4-for-40 off Paul Shuey with men in scoring position. And the lefthanded specialist, Tom Martin, has come marching in to allow the first batter he's faced to go 7-for-63 (.111). The batting average against the entire bullpen is .204 _ meaning it has essentially turned the whole league into Henry Blanco. No wonder this team has lost just five games all year when leading after FIVE innings. What players/scouts say: "They don't have a weak link." ... "Mota would be closing on about 29 other teams, and most likely would be an All-Star." ... "The combination of Gagne and Mota reminds me a little of the '96 Yankees (Mariano Rivera setting up for John Wetteland)." ... "Gagne is the first reliever I've ever seen who deserves the Cy Young, unanimously. I couldn't put stats up on any video game like he's putting up in the National League. Best one-inning pitcher I've ever watched." ... "Mota is the key to Gagne, because they can use him for two innings, and he gets better the more he throws."	1. Oakland A's The stat sheet says the Mariners have the best bullpen. The scouts and players say otherwise. Keith Foulke might not register on the radar gun, but he has 40 saves, leads all closers in innings pitched (79 IP) and has a .150 opponents' average with men on base. Chad Bradford has allowed one earned run and one inherited runner to score since the end of July. And left-handers are hitting their standard .181 against Ricardo Rincon. Not everybody loves this 'pen, but the A's and Dodgers are the only teams in the big leagues to convert more than 80 percent of their save opportunities. What players/scouts say: (Optimist Dept.) "They're a finesse pen, but they've done a great job if they can stay away from the middle (relief) -- like most teams." ... "Foulke's delivery has always scared the hell out of me. But man, this guy has guts. He can come in and make a big pitch. He's had a hell of a year." ... (Pessimist Dept.) "I don't think they're as deep as Seattle. (Rincon) is OK, but they have some righties who get lefties out. The closer is having a great year, but he's untested (in the postseason)." ... "The closer has been great, but in the playoffs, I want a guy who can dominate."
2. Houston Astros It's no accident that the Astros became the first team ever to throw a six-pitcher no-hitter, because nobody waves for that bullpen like Jimy Williams. This 'pen is the only one out there that already has four relievers (Billy Wagner, Octavio Dotel, Brad Lidge and Ricky Stone) with 70-plus innings apiece. But whoever Williams brings in almost always makes him look smart. Wagner hasn't blown a save since June, and the league is hitting .164 against him. So compared to facing him, it's almost fun to run into Dotel (.183) or Lidge (.193). The only worries are Dotel's strained gluteus muscle and Lidge's second-half fatigue (5.76 ERA since the break). What players/scouts say: "Lidge comes in throwing 96-98. Then Dotel comes in throwing 96-97 with good breaking stuff. Then Wagner comes in throwing 101. It's pretty damn impressive." ... "They come in and blow you away. I call it the hard, harder and hardest bullpen." ... "If you aren't leading after seven against the Astros or Dodgers, you aren't going to win." ... (Pessimist Dept.) "To be honest, I'm not sold on their ability to get left-handers out (besides Wagner) or their overall depth."	2. Seattle Mariners For 2� years, it didn't get any better than Kazuhiro Sasaki, Arthur Rhodes and Jeff Nelson. But now Nelson is gone, Sasaki is hurting, and Rhodes (4.97 ERA since the All-Star break) has slipped. Armando Benitez, who was supposed to be closer insurance, has had one 1-2-3 inning in a month. And after ripping off 28 2/3 straight shutout innings, even the ever-reliable Shigetoshi Hasegawa (1.19 ERA) has been scored on in five of his last seven appearances. But at least they still roll out the best-kept bullpen secret in baseball: Rafael Soriano (58 strikeouts, only 9 walks in 45 innings, with 34 of his last 65 outs on punchouts). What players/scouts say: "In my opinion, Seattle had the best bullpen in the league until they made that trade (Nelson for Benitez). With Sasaki not throwing as well, and Nelson gone, they seem to be human." ... "Seattle has a bunch of hard throwers, and I mean a bunch. But no real matchup lefty and an inexperienced closer -- although Hasegawa is having a great year." .... "They were the best, but they've kind of fallen apart. Hasegawa is wearing down. Sasaki is a shadow of his former self. And Benitez has been awful."
3. San Francisco Giants You look at the names -- Tim Worrell, Matt Herges, Scott Eyre, Joe Nathan, Felix Rodriguez -- and they don't scare you. But there's a reason this team is 45-19 in one- and two-run games, 19-2 in one-run games at home and 66-4 when it leads after seven innings. And it isn't: "because Barry hits one into the Cove in the ninth inning every night." No, this team is fourth in the league in bullpen ERA. The Giants never could have survived Robb Nen's shoulder surgery if Worrell (18 saves in his last 21 opportunities) hadn't done such a shocking imitation of his big brother (Todd). And in case you hadn't noticed, their bullpen MVP is Joe Nathan, against whom right-handed hitters are batting a ridiculous .139. Like their whole team, this bullpen is better than the sum of its parts. What players/scouts say: "I like them better than the Astros, to be honest. When you get to the playoffs, you need a lot of arms to get you to the end, and they've got the depth." ... "There are questions about Worrell closing out a playoff game, but it isn't about one guy."	3. Minnesota Twins Some people think this bullpen is better than Oakland's or Seattle's, even though it hasn't been the same since Johan Santana headed for the rotation. You never want to hang Eddie Guardado's saves in a museum, but he has blown only three of 37 opportunities. LaTroy Hawkins has thrown 19 straight scoreless innings. And Jesse Orosco still thinks he's 36, not 46. But J.C. Romero (101 baserunners in 56 1/3 IP) has been a disappointment. And the depth of this group isn't what it was last year. But if they can get to the end and stay ahead, Guardado and Hawkins have protected every lead handed to them since July 27. What players/scouts say: "I'd rank them No. 1 in the league right now. Guardado is throwing the way he always has. And Hawkins has been terrific in that (set-up) role." ... "Santana starting has hurt that 'pen, but they still have great arms." ... "I'll tell you one thing: Hawkins' stock (as a free agent) has skyrocketed." ... "They have a few guys that can pitch more than one inning and get both lefties and righties out. A pretty good set-up man. And a gutsy closer who will not dominate hitters, but seems to get it done somehow."
4. Atlanta Braves If you go by the numbers, the Braves (4.11 bullpen ERA) don't even belong this high. And if John Smoltz isn't himself, they'll go from fourth to eighth. But in the games that matter most, you give extra points to a team with a closer who has that see-ya-tomorrow aura. So if we were sure about Smoltz's health, we would actually rank this bullpen No. 3 -- because when Smoltz is right, he's as good as it gets (0.89 ERA, a 67-to-8 strikeout-walk ratio, a .153 average against him with men on base). The question is, is he OK? He's pitched 3 1/3 innings since Aug. 2, was used twice in 20 days before he went on the disabled list and then, instead of returning from the DL this week, headed to Birmingham for a visit with Dr. James Andrews. So the flags are all red, no matter how amazing the well-traveled Will Cunnane (3 saves, 1.26 ERA) has been in his place this month. Because except for Ray King, who leads all NL left-handers in appearances, there are huge questions about the set-up gang. What players/scouts say: "Smoltz had better come back 100 percent or Hotlanta could be going home very early. I don't care how great they hit." ... "How Roberto Hernandez pitches can make the difference in the playoffs. He has the ability to dominate hitters, but goes into funks." ... "When we play Atlanta, we always say, 'If we can get into their bullpen before Smoltz gets in the game, we've got a chance.' "	4. New York Yankees There's no greater reminder that the Yankees ain't what they used to be than the moment those bullpen doors swing open. Twenty different relievers have popped out of those doors this year. And the combined 4.26 bullpen ERA is more than half a run higher than last year's bullpen, which they gutted after it racked up a 5.94 playoff ERA, with two losses and four blown saves. At least the great Mariano Rivera is still around. And after hearing all that talk of how much he's slipped, you might be stunned to learn he has a 1.84 ERA and has given up three hits to the last 22 hitters he's faced. But while he isn't quite as untouchable as he used to be, it's his setup platoon that's really suspect. ERA of this bullpen if you subtract Mariano: 4.73. What players/scouts say: "Despite some cracks lately, I still think you have to give the nod to the Yankees. They have experience, good starters to shorten the game and the most experienced closer. Keep in mind that any bullpen that gets overused will eventually cave in. The starting rotation that goes deepest will set up even a weak bullpen for success. The fewer outs they have to get, the better."... "Jeff Nelson can make or break them. If he doesn't pitch to form, they've got to bring Rivera in earlier than they want. And that's been his only trouble." ... "Are they good enough? On a given day, yeah. And on some given days, no." ... "Mariano was Cooperstown good a couple of years ago. He's still very good now. He's not in that Gagne-Smoltz-Wagner group anymore, but he's 1-A. He's still right there. It's their eighth inning that's been a mess."
5. Florida Marlins The Marlins (eighth in the league in bullpen ERA) are another team that shouldn't rank this high based on their numbers for the season. But over the last month, they've had the third-best bullpen ERA (3.51) in the big leagues. And the difference-maker has been Ugueth Urbina. He has a 0.92 ERA since the Marlins dealt for him, has given up two runs since July 25 and has provided the perfect set-up bridge to surprisingly effective closer Braden Looper. Shaky as their set-up troops can be, the Marlins are fine late. They've converted 72 percent of their save opportunities -- virtually the same rate as the Giants. What players/scouts say: "Of all the relievers who have been traded this year, Urbina has done the best job." ... "Urbina in Florida has made it a six-inning start for their pitchers." ... "Getting him helped set up the rest of their bullpen." ... "I'll say this about Looper: I was totally wrong about his ability to do that (closer) job."	5. Chicago White Sox You don't normally think much of bullpens with no set closer. But this might be the exception. Tom Gordon, the right-handed half of the closer platoon, is averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings and has given up one run since Aug. 6. Damaso Marte, the left-handed half, has a 1.66 ERA (lowest of any left-hander in the league) and is allowing 5.7 hits per nine innings (also the best of any left-hander in the league). And there are sure worse set-up casts than this one (funky left-hander Kelly Wunsch, the versatile Scott Schoeneweis and deposed closer Billy Koch), too. What players/scouts say: "The difference between their bullpen and the Yankees' is that their bullpen has performed. The Yankees' pen has not performed." ... "They've far exceeded my expectations. Marte has been good for a couple of years now. Gordon has pitched with a vengeance. Schoeneweis is a guy they can bring in early if they have to. And Wunsch is a good situation guy." ... "Tom Gordon has made himself a lot of money next year as somebody's closer."
6. Chicago Cubs No one seems to want to hit against this bullpen. But all its great individual stats haven't added up to a great 'pen. Mike Remlinger (11.02 strikeouts per 9 IP), Kyle Farnsworth (11.05 whiffs per 9 IP), Mark Guthrie (opponents bat .143 with men in scoring position), Dave Veres (1.56 ERA at Wrigley) and back-from-the-Mexican League closer Joe Borowski (28 saves, only 4 blown saves) all look good on paper and all have their moments. But of the eight NL contenders, the Cubs rank seventh in bullpen ERA (4.15). So will they dial it up in October? Who knows? What players/scouts say: (Optimist Dept.) "Do not underestimate the Cubs' 'pen. Their starters get all the attention because they throw mid-90s, but the 'pen throws just as hard -- and sometimes harder." ... "Similar to the Dodgers in their diversity. The only thing that makes the Dodgers better is their closer." ... (Pessimist Dept.) "Tons of talent -- but they don't get the job done." ... "I don't think you can count on Joe Borowski. And Farnsworth should be a hell of a lot better than he is."	6. Boston Red Sox The Committee is no longer in session. That's good. Hector Almonte, Matt White, Bobby Howry and Steve Woodard don't work here anymore. And that's good, too. The names look a lot better now. Byung-Hyun Kim, Scott Williamson and Scott Sauerbeck all have attractive track records and excellent stuff. So how come these guys still make everybody in New England reach for the valium? Maybe because Kim has a 5.17 ERA in his save opportunities, but a 1.11 ERA in all his other relief outings. Or because Williamson has allowed 21 baserunners in his last 13 innings. Or because Sauerbeck has an 11.57 ERA in his last 11 trips to the mound. There's more order here now, and better arms. But this group is still this team's biggest nightmare. What players/scouts say: "Boston has a committee that can make your hair fall out." ... "It's a quagmire out there. They've had to sort out all those personalities and where guys fit into a role. It's been like a tryout camp all year." ... "They have a lot of guys to pick from right now. I think they will use whoever is hot that day. I think this team will rely on its starters more than any other. Also, they'd better keep hitting." ... "Stuff is not the question with that group. None of them care for the later innings -- even Kim, especially if the guys he's facing are wearing pinstripes." ... "If their bullpen gets hot, they're going to win the whole thing, because right now, if the playoffs started tomorrow, aside from their bullpen, Boston is the best team in the league. But that's a schizophrenic group out there. They could get hot."
7. Philadelphia Phillies The Phillies have ranked near the top of the league in relief ERA all year and still have an ERA (3.77), better than 11 of the 16 NL bullpens. But the fundamental rule for rating postseason bullpens is: It's The Closer, Stupid. And now that Jose Mesa (9.77 ERA since the All-Star break) has self-destructed, this team doesn't even have one. Of the 15 clubs still in realistic contention, only the Cardinals, Royals and Red Sox have blown more saves than the Phillies' 18 (of 50) -- or have a worse conversion rate (just 64 percent). Nevertheless, they've gotten amazing mileage from Rheal Cormier (whose 1.64 ERA leads all left-handed set-up men) and 40-year-old Dan Plesac (3 ER since June 4). So there's a lot to be said for juggling acts. What players/scouts say: "I don't know what to make of the Phillies' 'pen. You never know how they'll use it. And they don't know who the hell to give the ball to at the end." ... "They just don't have the whole package. I've never liked (Jose) Mesa as a closer. He beats himself as much as you beat him. But Cormier has been phenomenal."	7. Kansas City Royals Since baseball went to six divisions and a wild card, no team has made the playoffs with a 5.51 bullpen ERA or 28 blown saves. But that's the double-whammy this relief outfit is lugging down the stretch. Mike MacDougal throws 100 mph. He also has more blown saves by himself (eight) than the Dodgers' entire bullpen (seven). Jason Grimsley has appeared in more games (73) than any AL reliever. He also has a 5.02 ERA and seven blown saves. This crew isn't hopeless, thanks to Curtis Leskanic (2.11 ERA as a Royal), Al Levine (2.60 ERA as a Royal) and Jeremy Affeldt (scored on in one of his last 10 appearances). But there must be something about Missouri, where 57 saves have gone to die among the Cardinals and Royals this year. What players/scouts say: "They wore Grimsley out in the first half of the season. It's ridiculous. He's out there every day for two innings." ... "I give them credit. They brought in pieces to try to make this group better. But MacDougal is a loose cannon. And when you look at the supporting cast, other than Affeldt, how many of them have any dominating pitch?"
8. St. Louis Cardinals When they get to Jason Isringhausen (17 saves in 19 opportunities, 8 hits allowed all year with men on base), life is good. It's getting to them that has been a horror show. They've already blown 29 saves (in 65 opportunities), their most since 1998 (31 BS). And three of their current set-up men -- Mike DeJean (8 BS), Cal Eldred (6 BS) and Steve Kline (4 BS) -- have combined for 18 blown saves all by themselves. Their 4.97 bullpen ERA would be the highest by any Cardinals relief department since the invention of the modern save rule three decades ago. What players/scouts say: "The closer's fine. Kline has had a mediocre year. And everybody else out there is a recyclable guy."