Time is running out
Major League Baseball will be facing a total relocation fiasco if a decision on the Expos isn't made by October.
Expos Rumblings
Theoretically, baseball is supposed to announce a decision on the relocation of the Have Bats Will Travel Expos within the next two weeks. But as with all deadlines in this saga, Bud Selig refuses to pour cement around it.
And we hate to break it to our favorite, agonizing commissioner. But he has already waited too long. It's already too late to do this right -- even if he makes an announcement in the next 30 seconds.
Bob DuPuy, Selig's right-hand man/COO, told Rumblings this week "it would be nice to get this done before the playoffs." But the truth is, it wouldn't just be "nice." It's the only hope to avoid a total relocation fiasco.
If this decision isn't made before October, it probably won't be made until November -- because it's baseball policy never to upstage the postseason. And by November, according to one source familiar with the relocation fine print, the effort to get this relocated franchise running smoothly by Opening Day will have desolved into nothing but "a fire drill."
Assuming this move is to the Washington area, the absolute, positive latest RFK Stadium's turf needs to be re-sodded is mid-November. But that's not all.
Entire staffs need to be hired -- to sell tickets, rake the dirt, fix up the stadium, sell the hot dogs, plan a promotion or two and, in a not-unrelated matter, run the franchise.
And who, exactly, would attend to all that? Don't answer: The new owners. Because there wouldn't be any new owners. Not yet. Baseball has been planning to announce the location first, sell the team later. So, essentially, MLB would have to handle all those details -- every last one. Or hire somebody to handle them. Which also takes time.
Some of those people handling these relocated jobs undoubtedly would be the people to handle them now in Montreal, San Juan and where ever else this team has been asked to do business. But of course, those are real people -- with actual lives and families. And moving those entire lives and families also takes time -- assuming they want to move at all, given the uncertainties once the team is sold.
And the overhaul of RFK is another monumental job. You can play a game there on a month and a half's notice. But you couldn't play a game anybody could televise. Or cover for a newspaper. Or sell to players, fans, dignitaries and (caution: important group coming up) congress as a major-league event.
And the sad truth is, it may already be too late to get all of this done the way this franchise and this sport deserves to have it done.
For example, said a man who has spent all his adult life in sports marketing and administration, "you've got to sell all these suites and field boxes, and do all the marketing. And all this stuff needs to be done in a very, very, very short period of time.
"In my experience, if you're a new franchise, your best chance to sell suites for three years down the road (in a new stadium), and make inroads with sponsors and fans, is when you're doing it the first time. You're saying, `Buy now, and we'll sign you up for season tickets in (2007).' Well, who makes these decisions? ...
"I won't say they've already screwed this up until they have. But I will say they've created an additional several layers of things that need to get done. And there's not enough time to do them. If baseball is really interested in the long-term success of the team, they're not giving it the best chance to achieve that success."
So what's the hang-up? It's the same old same old. Selig, according to sources, continues to look for ways to minimize the impact of this move on his friend, Peter Angelos, and the Orioles. But it's time for the commish to face the truth: It can't be done.
There are no other acceptable and baseball-ready markets to move to. Returning to Montreal is unacceptable. The people in Washington and Northern Virginia have about run out of patience that makes another one-season delay a dangerous, if not deal-breaking, decision.
So Selig is just going to have to make the kind of call he always hates to make -- one that won't make everybody happy. He needs to figure out a business plan to minimize the financial impact of this move on the Orioles' franchise. Then he needs to make this decision. And, obviously, the sooner the better.
| Yankees Rumblings |
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True, they saved about $13 million when they dumped Contreras to the White Sox. But had they been willing to eat most or all of the contract, they could have dealt Contreras to several interested teams. In fact, according to one baseball man who was in on the Randy Johnson negotiations, the Marlins were interested enough that they were willing to trade a bunch of prospects that could have enabled the Yankees to deal for the Big Unit. But Florida wanted the Yankees to pay all but about $2 million of the nearly $18 million Contreras had remaining on his deal. So both teams wound up moving in different directions.
When Hernandez worked out in Florida this year during spring training, a bunch of teams showed up. But after watching him throw, only the Yankees and Red Sox stayed on his trail -- because nobody could have foreseen this guy being 7-0 right now, or his team being 10-1 in games he'd started. "I didn't see that coming," said one NL executive who attended that workout. "Not off what I saw that day. The guy was throwing 78 miles an hour. But one thing the gun can't measure is his competitiveness. And he's sure got that."
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Phillies Rumblings
Lieberthal still lives in southern California. So his friends say he'd be likely to approve a deal to a West Coast team. And one NL executive says the Phillies actually discussed trading him to the Dodgers, in a package that would have brought back Paul Lo Duca, in July.
Of course, the Dodgers, like many teams, would be wary of Lieberthal's disappointing season. Not to mention the $7.5 million Lieberthal is guaranteed next year, plus his $7.5-million option for 2006 -- which he'll need only about 100 plate appearances next year to vest.
But Lieberthal is also a .336 lifetime hitter in Dodger Stadium, with a .598 slugging percentage. And the Dodgers will be looking to upgrade their catching over the current David Ross-Brent Mayne tandem.
So stay tuned for that rumor, assuming the Phillies are willing to pay some of his salary and can find a free-agent catcher in a field headed by Jason Varitek, Mike Matheny, Damian Miller and Dan Wilson.
The good news is that Howard just finished leading the minor leagues in home runs, with 43. The bad news is that the only position he has ever played is first base -- which will be occupied by some guy named Thome for four years.
Even Phillies player-development guru Mike Arbuckle has begun to soften his stance that Howard isn't athletic enough to play the outfield. So a position-shift is at least a possibility now.
"We need to sit down in the offseason, with a fresh sheet of paper, and figure out what to do with this guy," GM Ed Wade said. "The progress he's made is so substantial, we have to sit down and talk more about him as an organization."
Complicating that discussion is the fact that, thanks to all their deals of the last couple of years, Howard is now the only true upper-level position-player prospect in the organization. So if they deal him, their first priority would be to swap him for a cornerstone prospect at another position.
Would there be enough interest to do that? Two scouts we surveyed said they would recommend him to their GMs with no equivocation.
"Yeah, he strikes out," says one NL scout. "But I've seen him enough to know this: The guy hits good pitching. And a lot of guys who put up numbers in the minor leagues don't do that."
"I like their club," says one NL executive. "I still like their club. You go around their lineup, position for position, and that's a dangerous group. They miss a true leadoff guy. But I still like that lineup. So I'd have to say they underachieved.
"The one place they probably miscalculated was on starting pitching. They lack a real No. 1 or 2 starter. (Kevin) Millwood is getting paid like a No. 1, but he's really a No. 3, or probably even a No. 4. Brett Myers is a No. 5 for me. (Eric) Milton is the ideal No. 3. (Randy) Wolf is a No. 4. (Vicente) Padilla is the guy with the stuff to jump to the front of the (rotation). But there are other questions about him.
"They can all pitch. But a true No. 1 or 2 has got to be able to dominate you. And they just don't have that guy right now."
Dodgers Rumblings
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| Beltre |
"I think the fact that his ankle hurts him has made him a far better hitter," says one scout. "The left ankle is his bad one, and that's his front foot when he hits. He's soft on his front side now when he strides. ... And he's not jumping like he used to."
By staying more closed and more still, Beltre has learned to drive the ball the other way, and the results speak for themselves. He has hit 14 home runs this year to the right of dead center field. He hit nine in the previous five seasons combined.
"It's not the same as Dreifort and Mota," says one scout who has been following the Dodgers. "That was a true six-inning game. And I'm still not sure why they broke that up.
"But Brazoban has a good arm. He's just untested. But he's the real deal. He'll be a quality guy in time. Sanchez has pitched well, but I don't know that I trust him in tight situations. He's serviceable for me, but that's all. And Carrara's numbers have been ungodly (1.12 ERA in his first 27 appearances). But I don't care what the numbers say. He's not that kind of guy."
Cardinals Rumblings
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| King |
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| Kline |
Until Steve Kline got hurt, Jason Isringhausen, Ray King, Julian Tavarez and Kline all had nearly the same number of appearances and the same number of innings pitched. Which is a tribute to the organizational skills of their manager and pitching coach (Dave Duncan), and to the consistency of their rotation.
"I still think the one area where they're vulnerable in October is the 'pen," the scout says. "So far, their starters have been so good and so consistent, Tony has been able to use that 'pen just right and not overexpose anybody. But if their starter goes five some night, and they've got to get three innings out of their bullpen to get to the closer, that could be trouble."
Nevertheless, people who underestimate the Cardinals' postseason chances -- on the theory that they lack that classic dominating starter -- haven't been paying close enough attention.
The Cardinals are the only team in the big leagues that has had all five starters throw at least 160 innings. And if they all get to 180, it will be the first time that has happened in the history of the franchise.
Not to mention, they throw more strikes than any rotation in the league. They recently went four straight games without a walk. And Jeff Suppan's five-walk evening Tuesday marked the first time since Aug. 8 that any of the Cardinals' regular starters besides Jason Marquis had walked more than two in a start.
"If you have their defense and their lineup," says one scout that has been following them, "that more than makes up for a lack of power pitching."
"The Cardinals' offense is like Steinbrenner's checkbook," says one NL front-office man. "If they ever do make a mistake, it's covered up."
Really Rumbling And Grumbling
Paul Lo Duca has hit .306 as a Marlin (.364 with men in scoring position), and proved, in the words of one executive, "what a huge hole Pudge Rodriguez's loss really was." Guillermo Mota (1.16 ERA, 7 2/3 consecutive hitless innings) has been scary-good. And even Rudy Seanez punched out 18 in his first 14 2/3 innings as Florida's seventh-inning man.
Florida's bullpen was a nightmare for four months. Now, says one scout, if you compare them to last year's World Series bullpen, "I'm not sure you wouldn't take Seanez, Mota and Benitez over Chad Fox, Braden Looper and (Ugueth) Urbina."
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| Lowe |
"Right now, right this second, they're probably the best club in the league," says one scout. "Whether they still will be two weeks from now, I don't know."
If you stack up the Red Sox lineup vs. the Yankees, the same scout gave the Yankees only three positions -- shortstop (Derek Jeter), third base (A-Rod) and right field (Gary Sheffield).
The Red Sox also have a much better, and far more dependable, rotation. And while the Yankees have the better bullpen, "both teams have really worn out their bullpens," the scout said. "I worry about the Yankees. (Paul) Quantrill and (Tom) Gordon are really wearing down."
"This guy is not an immediate major-league player," said one scout who attended the workout. "He really hasn't played in a couple of years (after being suspended from the Cuban national team over fears he would defect). So it's going to take a lot of time, a lot of at-bats."
The scout's lukewarm review of Morales' skills: "Can't run at all. Pretty good stroke. Good kid. Good approach to hitting. Has to play first base. That's his only real position (even though he also played the outfield in Cuba)."
| Trade of the Month |
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On July 2, the Cubs traded pitcher Jimmy Anderson to Boston for a prospect and a player to be named later. Exactly 29 days later, the Red Sox traded Jimmy Anderson back to the Cubs -- as, essentially, that very same player to be named later.
Which means that, when you get right down to it, Jimmy Anderson got traded for himself. So no matter how you look at it, this would have to rank as one of the most even trades in baseball history. |
This year, though, it's a moot point for another reason:
Rickey isn't interested.
His agent, Jeff Borris says he hasn't even approached the A's to see if the offer still stands -- "because Rickey says he's not retiring."
And why would he? Even at age 45½, Henderson has had an outrageous second half. He's hit .350 since July 1, with a Bonds-ian .540 on-base percentage. He's fourth in the league in stolen bases, with 31. And since June 17, he's been thrown out once in 22 attempts to steal.
But Borris says nobody has expressed interest in giving him a big-league look -- not as a pinch-runner, not as a pinch-hitter (or pinch-walker), not even as a September publicity stunt.
If he doesn't surface somewhere, Henderson's Hall of Fame ballot clock starts ticking toward an appearance on the 2008 ballot. As long as he plays all his baseball in an independent league league next year (and for however many more years he plays), that clock wouldn't reset.
If he were to return to the majors at any point, though, even for a day, he'd have to start his five-year wait all over. But Borris says that wouldn't be a factor for Henderson -- not even if Beane re-extended that one-day offer two, three or even four years down the line.
"For a day? No. He's not interested," Borris said. "Rickey will not be a big leaguer for a day. That, to him, would be like charity. Rickey wants to play."
We've often thought that replay would work great in two areas -- to determine fair or foul, or home run vs. not a home run. But Sandy Alderson, baseball's vice president for baseball operations, disagrees.
Alderson says that now that umpires are instructed to confer on calls like this, "the number of fair-or-foul calls they miss during a season is in the neighborhood of six times a season." The clear directive to umpires now is to do all they can to get the call right -- "and television," he says, "doesn't always get the call right."
"This is the fundamental question: technology or no technology?" Alderson says. "Well, we have technology which we utilize in QuesTec. And as I've often said, the idea of using QuesTec is not to replace the umpires. It's to make the umpiring as good as possible. And we're utilizing every avenue at our disposal to make the umpiring as good as possible."
Alderson says this issue was discussed two years ago at the general managers' meetings, and that group was split almost 50-50. There also have been no indications that fans are particularly interested.
"So my approach has always been: Let's find all the technology we can, including instant replay," Alderson says. "But let's use it to make the umpires as good as they can be. The idea of bringing out the (replay) clock ... and using instant replay (in a game) -- that's something we need to be very, very careful about."
Stat of the month
This week's fun stat is: Most Wins Vs. Closers.
We recognize this is an inexact science, since some teams' closers have changed from week to week or month to month. But to qualify, we used this arbitrary definition: the opposing closer had to be the losing pitcher. We can calculate blown saves against each team some other time.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Twins 8
Yankees 6
Rangers, Indians, Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Blue Jays 3
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cardinals 6
Giants 5
Cubs 5
Phillies, Pirates, Rockies 4
At the other end of this scale, the Expos and Mariners haven't won any games against the opposing team's closers. And the Dodgers and Astros are among the teams that have done that just once.
File this away for future October reference: The Red Sox are the only team that has beaten Mariano Rivera. The Yankees and Twins both have wins over Keith Foulke. And the Marlins and Braves have wins over Eric Gagne.
Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.
- Rumors: Red Sox, Yankees in Lackey chase
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- KEG: Early 2010 look-aheads
