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Who needs "Beauty and the Geek" when we can watch the best reality show on earth -- baseball -- every darned night?

Ah, but we know what you're thinking: The season isn't even three weeks old yet. So "reality" is a murky concept. If it's the third week of April, how can any of us be 100 percent certain who's for real and who isn't?

Well, that's why Rumblings and Grumblings was invented. So we put together a list of players who are off to surprisingly hot starts, then asked 10 scouts and front-office men to help us sort out which of these guys are truly for real. Here goes:

Absolutely, positively for real

• Justin Upton, Diamondbacks -- projected pace: .370 average, 58 HR, 139 RBIs, 231 hits, .704 SLG, 1.114 OPS.

The names that get thrown around in the "who does Justin Upton remind you of" conversations say it all: A-Rod would be one. Kenneth Griffey Jr. would be another. And nobody we surveyed had any reservation whatsoever about using the word "superstar" to describe this guy.

"Tools R Us," said one scout. … "Can be the best player on the field most nights," said another. … "Just scratching the surface of what he can be," said another.

Nobody should be allowed to be this talented at 20 years old.

• Zack Greinke, Royals -- projected pace: 35-0, 0.75 ERA, .205 opponent average, 0.92 WHIP (with only 104 strikeouts IN 278 IP).

He has had his ups. He has had his downs. But ignore that crummy strikeout rate (3.38 per 9 IP) and his too-good-to-be-true .219 average on balls in play. Everyone we surveyed predicted that if Greinke has his heart in baseball, he's a legit ace waiting to happen. Described by one panelist as a cross between Greg Maddux and Catfish Hunter.

"One of the best pitchers in the game for me," said one scout. … "Dynamic stuff, with tremendous, award-winning upside," said another. … "Electric stuff and command," said another.

• Joakim Soria, Royals -- projected pace: 46 saves, 0 blown saves, 0.00 ERA, 69 IP, 23 hits, 93 strikeouts.

We had a tough time deciding whether Soria was still a "surprise" since he had a sensational rookie season last year, too. But it is his first full season as a closer, so what the heck. Just finding two Royals on a list like this is surprising enough.

"One of the best Rule 5 picks [December 2006] in recent memory," said one scout. "Just a fearless kid. They threw him into that short [relief] role, and he's showing he has the maturity to handle it."

Not for real

• Jason Kendall, Brewers -- projected pace: .375 average, .422 OBP, 201 hits, 67 doubles, 94 RBIs (but also zero homers).

Much as we'd love to use this forum to predict that Kendall will hit like Tony Gwynn for the next six months, it was tough to find anyone who would get on board -- especially when Kendall is one season removed from hitting .242, with 23 extra-base hits.

"Everything he hits is falling in," said one scout. … "Not buying this one. Never drives the ball anymore," said one executive.

Kendall did get one vote as "half for real." And he got another predicting that he'd cool off and settle back to a tick below his career norm -- which, in his defense, is quite a few notches above, say, Nelson Santovenia. But is this man a .375 hitter? 'Fraid not.

• Gabe Kapler, Brewers -- projected pace: .423 average, 58 HR, 160 RBIs, .962 SLG, 1.410 OPS.

Nah, this isn't Pick on the Brewers Week. We recognize that Kapler is one of the happiest tales in baseball these days. Who the heck manages in the minor leagues one year, then comes back to lead the National League in slugging the next?

Well, nobody. But that's the point. One exec called him the "best-hitting manager in the South Atlantic League last year." Another gave him a light-hearted "temporary for-real" award. But the big question was: Can his body stand up to the pounding of a full season?

"I want to see him when he has to play for a stretch," said one scout. … "Just hitting mistakes right now," said another. … "Great role player," said an AL executive. "But he'll come back to earth in a big way."

• Mike Jacobs, Marlins -- projected pace: .320 average, 67 HR, 148 RBIs, 40 doubles, .680 SLG., 1.026 OPS.

Like that team he plays for, Jacobs is mashing right now, much the way he did after the Mets called him up in 2005. But his big uppercut swing and lack of selectivity scare people, no matter how much raw power he has. (And he'll need it all, playing in that canyon in Miami.)

"Not real," said one scout. "He's swinging from his butt, and right now he's hitting it. But it won't last. He's this year's Chris Shelton."

More real than not

• Nate McLouth, Pirates -- projected pace: .391 average, 289 hits, 104 doubles, 23 HR, 12 triples, 23 SB, 162 RBIs out of the leadoff hole!

We're not sure we could locate any Americans, outside of western Pennsylvania or McLouth's old street in Michigan, who would even recognize the Pirates' high-voltage center fielder if he sat next to them in a diner. But 2½ weeks into the season, this man was leading the National League in about 92 offensive categories.

We'd give him a full vote of for-real confidence here -- except he isn't this good. On one hand, he's clearly an on-the-rise kind of guy who got reviews like "pesky little player" and "grinder." On the other, one scout predicted his hot start means he's about to get pitched a lot tougher. And another said, "They talk about him being another Andy Van Slyke, but sorry. He's not that." So, fun, he is. A .391 hitter, he ain't.

• Bill Hall, Brewers -- projected pace: 62 HR, 125 RBIs, but also only .204 average, .218 OBP, .737 OPS.

See, we told you this wasn't Pick on the Brewers Week. Hall might not be hitting much for average or taking a whole lot of pitches. But everybody who weighed in on him thinks he'll have a good year. One scout even perused our list of potential bounce-back candidates and awarded Hall the honor of "best bet on this list."

"I'm big on Bill Hall," said another scout. "He's such a good athlete. And he's learning what he can and can't do. His plate coverage and pitch recognition are getting better all the time. And he's playing surprisingly well at third base."

• Cliff Lee, Indians -- projected pace: 23-0, .0.61 ERA, 162 IP, 69 hits, 139 strikeouts.

While one executive we surveyed cautioned that Lee's first two starts were both against an Oakland lineup that isn't quite Bash Brother-esque, most people we polled thought his disappointing season last year was a health issue, not a talent issue.

"I think he has to be for real," one scout said. "He's pitched this way before. Now he's showing the same ability again. And the only glitch was when he got hurt. So why wouldn't he be for real?"

Hung jury

• Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks -- projected pace: 62 HR, 186 RBIs, .620 SLG., 1.008 OPS -- and 185 strikeouts.

Nobody disputes the "deep home run power." Or the "aggressive" approach. Or the reality that Reynolds has been putting up virtually these same numbers since his call-up last summer.

But one NL GM branded Reynolds "not that real," and said he won't be convinced until Reynolds "patches up the holes in his swing." We also noticed that baseball men who see a lot of the NL West aren't totally sold on Reynolds yet. So stay tuned.

• Dana Eveland, A's -- projected pace: 2.00 ERA, .212 opponent average, 24 quality starts, 162 strikeouts IN 194 IP.

Eveland arrived from Arizona in the Dan Haren blockbuster and promptly spun off two terrific starts against Cleveland and Toronto (13 1/3 IP, 1 run). But he didn't make it through the fifth inning Tuesday in Chicago. And that just reinforced the views of scouts who clearly don't trust his consistency.

We heard one scout say he was "suspicious" of Eveland's success. Another predicted: "I doubt Eveland holds up over the long haul." But this guy also has his backers, all of whom talk about what good stuff he has when he's on. So we'll reconvene this jury down the road.

• Edwin Jackson, Rays -- projected pace: 22-11, 2.84 ERA, 205 IP, 119 hits.

Jackson is another guy who kicked off his season with two excellent starts, then threw up a clunker against the Yankees in outing No. 3. So while he had more "for real" votes than "not for real," he even makes his supporters nervous.

One scout praised his improved take-a-little-off-to-get-strike-one approach, quipping: "He's like a NASCAR driver working the gas pedal. When he goes into the corners, he slows up. When he gets into a straightaway, he lets it loose." But another spoke for just about everyone when he said: "I'd lean more toward 'for real' than not. But even when he's good, your instinct is not to believe it because you've seen too much of the other way."

And when you hear opinions like this from trained professionals, it's a reminder: Reality isn't what any of us say it is. In the end, it's just those numbers on the back of the baseball cards.

Rumbling through the rumor mill

• Attention shoppers: How far have those Tampa Bay Rays come? They could actually find themselves in a position to deal away pitching in a couple of weeks. Who'd have thunk it? The Rays expect both Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza to return from the disabled list by the first week of May, which will leave them with (shudder) extra arms. From what we can gather, they're not real anxious to move Edwin Jackson. But there are rumblings that several teams are watching that front verrry closely.

• Fizzled rumor of the week: When the Red Sox designated Kyle Snyder for assignment, trade rumors erupted all over the map, especially in places like Detroit, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. But, surprise -- Snyder cleared waivers, didn't get traded and wound up in the Red Sox's Triple-A outpost in Pawtucket.

"They had a lot of clubs looking at him, if you go back to the spring," said an executive of one team that dropped out early. "But our feeling was, we were looking for a substantial upgrade, and the way he was throwing, he wasn't a real upgrade."

"He was throwing 87, and his arm action wasn't real pretty," said a scout who turned in a negative report. "Plus, he was throwing a lot of off-speed pitches. It was obvious he didn't want to throw his fastball, and when he did throw it, he didn't throw it with any confidence. He just wasn't throwing well enough to where you'd go out of your way to make a deal for the guy."

• Left-handed and breathing: The Phillies have already signed one unemployed left-handed reliever, Steve Kline. There are indications they also have mild interest in another, Mike Stanton.

For now, they're likely to see how Kline fares in Triple-A. (He walked two of the four hitters he faced in his debut Tuesday.) But teams that have spoken with them say they're definitely still bullpen-shopping. And Stanton (released by the Reds in the last week of spring training) has told former teammates the Phillies are his first choice if he comes back to pitch this year.

• The bullpen hunters: Another club suddenly shopping for emergency bullpen help, in the wake of a back-of-the-pen injury epidemic, is Atlanta. Who saw that coming?

It was only three weeks ago that the Braves thought they were so deep in pitching, they actually traded away one of their live-est arms, in Tyler Yates. Now, according to an executive of one club that spoke with them, they're "poking around," trying to fish out a name or two "beyond the usual suspects." Nothing is hot, from all indications.

Rumbles in the jungle

• Missing in inaction: Several readers have pointed out how odd it is that so many familiar names find themselves jobless at the moment. In fact, of the 15 active players at the end of last season who had played in the most games, eight are out of baseball right now. And so are five of the top-nine leaders in games pitched.

The easy assumption is that that's just a remarkable coincidence. But we're hearing rumblings that the union -- and a number of agents -- aren't so sure of that. The union may even look into the possibility of illegal orchestration.

"I really believe a lot of this is linked to the Mitchell report," said one agent. "They don't want anybody around who was tied to the Mitchell report. And they don't want anybody who played in the '90s. That's their idea of how to clean the game up."

This may not qualify as true collusion. But that doesn't mean it's an accident, either.

• Where there's a Willis: A baseball man who is tight with members of the Tigers' brass said that, in a way, they were almost relieved when Dontrelle Willis headed for the disabled list last weekend. Dontrelle's wildness was getting so out of hand, he was bordering on being pronounced as having contracted The Thing.

"So now they can send him out on a rehab start and see where this thing is at," the same baseball man said. "Now they can let him figure out his control issues in the minor leagues instead of in the big leagues. And if he's still wild, they can attribute it to the knee. But this [lack of control] has been there for a while. I could be wrong, and I hope I am, but I think this is going to turn out to be a bad signing. And that's very unusual for that group."

• Signing King Cole: Fausto Carmona might have a new contract in Cleveland. James Shields might have a new contract in Tampa Bay. But in Philadelphia, there's no indication that the Phillies have had a single conversation with the NL's early ERA leader, Cole Hamels, about a long-term deal.

Of course, Hamels is a guy who has never made 30 starts in any professional season. So the Phillies might have doubts about his long-term durability.

But even if they tried to follow the contract blueprint laid out by Carmona and Shields, it's doubtful Hamels would even be interested in that type of deal.

Like Hamels, both Carmona and Shields had one-plus year of big league service time when they signed their new contracts over the last few weeks. Then both of those pitchers signed nearly unprecedented deals. Both got four guaranteed seasons (all likely arbitration years), plus a rare three club option years -- including one that bought out a year of free agency.

But it's highly unlikely that structure would appeal to Hamels' agent, John Boggs. If you look at Boggs' negotiating history, he has consistently balked at option years that would buy out any potential shot at free agency, with all his clients. (He wouldn't even roll those dice this winter on Mark Prior, despite Prior's health issues.)

So it wouldn't be a shock to see the Phillies go year to year with both of their two biggest young stars -- Hamels and Ryan Howard. And as Howard's arbitration bonanza proved this spring, that can get expensive.

• The testing zone: It didn't get a whole lot of attention. But the provision in the new drug agreement that might have the biggest impact on this sport won't even affect major league players.

Starting this year, baseball will begin testing the 200 highest-rated amateur players before the June draft. And that's a development that could make a lot of scouting directors look a lot more brilliant in a hurry.

"I guarantee you," said one high-ranking official, "that there have been [scouting directors] over the last few years who took players up high, and they turned out to be [steroid] issues. Then those guys never performed, and it cost people jobs.

"I could go back through the drafts over the last five years and name you eight or 10 first-rounders off the top of my head who I'm sure now were steroid guys. With the money we're putting into first-rounders nowadays, you're looking at several million dollars a player. That's a lot of money we've lost as an industry right there. So I think this is very significant."

• The phenom riseth: Tampa Bay needed to keep third-base stud Evan Longoria in the minor leagues for the first 11 days of the season to buy an extra year of service time.

So as it turned out, Willy Aybar had perfect timing for blowing out his hamstring -- enabling the Rays to call up Longoria after 13 days in Triple-A. Think Aybar will get a bonus out of it?

But the Rays have been privately adamant all spring that that extra year of service time was practically a non-issue. Unless everyone in North America is wrong about how big a star Longoria is destined to become, they're undoubtedly going to make a major push to sign him to a deal that will postpone his date with free agency for several years anyway.

At any rate, now that Longoria is in the big leagues, Aybar is destined to turn into the Wally Pipp of Tampa Bay -- because Longoria would have to hit about .028 to get sent back now.

"You can't send that kid back," said one scout. "You can't even make a case to send that kid back. He'll put fannies in the seats all by himself."

• Fukudome-ville: It didn't take long for Kosuke Fukudome's new Cubs teammates to figure out he was a way better player than he'd let on while he was hitting .270, with only four extra-base hits, in spring training.

"We're all convinced he was sandbagging everyone in spring training," laughed Mark DeRosa. "In fact, we were sitting on the plane [leaving Arizona], and Derrek Lee said, 'Hey, this guy gets it. I think he's been tricking everyone.' He's been way more than advertised.

"I've gotten to hit behind him a lot, so I've seen it. You know how pitchers have quality starts? He's had quality at-bats 99 percent of the time. He doesn't swing at bad pitches. He's always on base. He's got sneaky power. He can do a lot of things. Chipper [Jones] even sent me a text the other day: 'Is it really that easy?' Hey, it is for him."

According to Bill James Online, Fukudome has swung at only 11 pitches all season that were out of the strike zone. Amazing.

• The lost Prince: Who was the last 50-homer man before Prince Fielder to go this deep into the following April without a homer? Whaddaya know, it was his dad, Cecil, in 1991 (first homer: April 19).

So what's up? Scouts and our own Inside Edge data have suggested that Fielder is being pitched a lot differently so far, and hasn't gotten many pitches out over the plate to drive. But one NL scout has a different theory.

"I blame the pants," he said. "His pants are so big, the wind catches him and blows him off course."

So apparently, he's not lost at the plate. He's lost at sea.

Taking the Subway

You've now had three weeks to study our new Rumblings and Grumblings logo, so by now you should have noticed we're now sponsored by our favorite sandwich-makers, Subway. So here's our proud, yet shameless, salute to our sponsors -- the weekly Subway awards:

The On a Roll Award: It was our good friend John Kruk who picked Cubs matinee idol Derrek Lee as his National League MVP this year. But if we had a mulligan, we'd like to officially bop Kruk over the noggin and steal that pick -- because Lee looks as good as any player in the league right now. All he's done over his last 10 games is go 20-for-43 (.465), with five homers, 12 RBIs, 11 runs scored, a .529 on-base percentage and a 1.459 OPS. And in the middle of it, he made a game-saving defensive play with two outs in the ninth inning Sunday. Boy, it's like that Kruk is clairvoyant or something.

Cold Cuts Award: We love Jack Cust. Let's get that straight. We love him when he gets on one of those tears where every ball he hits comes down in wine country. But we also love just looking at his numbers -- because they're so, well, insane. In good times or bad. And alas (because we also love typing that word, "alas"), this isn't one of those good times. Cust is 3 for his last 17 over the last week and a half, with 12 strikeouts. And kids, don't try that 12-strikeouts-to-3-hits ratio at home, OK?

Worth the Bread Award: So who's the highest-paid shortstop on earth who doesn't go by the name, "Derek Jeter?" You all know it's Dodgers wiz Rafael Furcal (at $13 million this year), right? Well, no complaining's allowed about that paycheck these days. In case you hadn't noticed, Furcal is leading the league in hitting (.407), on base-percentage (.500) and runs scored (15). And somehow, he's even fourth in slugging (.695), behind three guys (Lee, Pat Burrell and Mike Jacobs) who weigh, combined, approximately 1,200 pounds more than he does.

Super Sub Award: Explain to us again why Tony Clark could barely find a job last winter. Please. Somebody. This man continues to be just about the best bench guy in the whole darned sport. The Padres have pointed him toward home plate to pinch-hit 10 times this year. He has reached base in half of those journeys, with three pinch hits and two pinch walks. And it's not as if this just came out of nowhere. He did tie for the league lead in pinch homers last year, you know (with three). Will the Padres spend a more productive 900,000 bucks all year? We doubt it.

Late-night chuckle of the week

How does a team know it's having a rough year? When its season erupts into a Jay Leno monologue. And friends, that has now happened to those poor Detroit Tigers.

"The Detroit Tigers lost again over the weekend," Leno said Monday. "They're now 2-10 and in last place. The good news, if you're a season-ticket holder and you haven't filed your taxes yet, you can now write them off as a total loss."

Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com. His book, "The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History," was published by Triumph Books and is available in bookstores. Click here to order a copy.