Pitchers impressing on Indians' farm
John Sickels reports on a slew of pitchers who did well on the Class A level for the Indians this season.
Luis from Venezuela writes: Can you analyze the pitching group the Cleveland Indians have at Class A Lake County?
The Lake County Captains went 97-43 this year, and a big reason for that was the pitching staff. It's a good group, and symptomatic of a Cleveland farm system that is one of the best in the game.
The starting rotation was impressive. Right-hander Fausto Carmona was the ace, going 17-4 with a 2.06 ERA. He has excellent control, with an 83/14 K/BB in 148 innings, though his K-rate is lower than ideal, and we need to see what he does at higher levels. Finesse lefty Keith Ramsey (13-6, 2.99, 108/15 K/BB in 145 IP) and right-hander Sean Smith (11-4, 3.71, 101/67 K/BB in 121 IP) are also prospects. Smith has a better arm, while Ramsey relies on location. Two more right-handers, Dan Denham (5-2, 3.08 in 14 starts) and Jake Dittler (6-4, 2.63 ERA in 17 starts) also pitched well before being promoted to the next level. All these guys are prospects, with Denham and Dittler having the best pedigrees.
As good as the rotation was, the bullpen was even better. LHP Shea Douglas (10 saves, 1.37 ERA, 104/30 K/BB in 86 IP) and RHP Todd Pennington (20 saves, 0.72 ERA, 65/17 K/BB in 37 IP) shared the closer role. Both were a bit old for the Sally League, but numbers like these are impossible to ignore. Right-handers Dan Eisentrager (12-3, six saves, 1.72 ERA, 99/19 K/BB in 105 IP) and Kevin Martin (1.07 ERA in 34 IP) provided excellent middle relief. Neither are considered hot prospects at this point, though again these numbers are awesome, and they'll need to be watched at higher levels.
The best prospects in the group are starters Denham, Dittler, and Carmona, who all have live arms and are young enough to have lots of growth potential left.
G.A. asks: Toronto fans have heard quite a bit about outfield prospects Gabe Gross and Alexis Rios (and, to a lesser extent, John-Ford Griffin). Each has posted strong numbers at Double-A New Haven this season (Gross was recently promoted to Triple-A Syracuse). How would you rate these prospects, and when can we expect to see them in the majors?
All three of these guys had strong years, though in different ways.
Alexis Rios hit .352 with a .402 OBP and a .521 SLG, with 11 steals. He drew 39 walks while striking out 85 times in 514 at-bats.
John Ford-Griffin hit .279 with a .361 OBP and a .461 SLG. He swiped just two bases, though he hit 13 homers, two more than Rios, in fewer at-bats (373).
Gabe Gross hit .319 with a .423 OBP and a .481 SLG in 84 games, notably knocking 23 doubles while drawing 52 walks. After being promoted to Triple-A, he hit .264/.380/.456 in 53 games.
In traditional scouting terms, Rios is the best prospect of the three. He has the most speed, the best physical projection, and is the youngest. He's still just learning to tap into his power. Although his plate discipline is the weakest of the group, it's better than it was before; he made huge strides this season learning to refine his swing.
Gross doesn't have Rios' pure athleticism, but is no slouch himself, having been a college quarterback at Auburn. He has the best arm of the three, as well as the best strike zone judgment, and has proven he can hit Triple-A pitching. He's also the oldest, turning 24 this October.
Griffin is the least toolsy of the trio, but some scouts feel he's the best pure hitter. His plate discipline is better than Rios', but not as good as Gross'. He's the least talented defensively and has the least physical projection. Nagging injuries have plagued him as a pro, and he could explode offensively once fully healthy.
Basically, all three of these guys are solid prospects, though they all have their weaknesses. Rios has the best chance to be a superstar type, to be a Five Tool/Seven Skill guy, but he also has a higher risk of failure. My personal favorite is Gross, but I respect them all.
Ryan from Toronto writes: I'm interested to know more about Expos outfield prospect Val Pascucci. The power numbers have always been there, and this year his plate discipline is pretty good. And this year he's hitting for average at the Triple-A level. Do you see him as a fourth outfielder, and what is his potential?
Pascucci was a 15th round draft pick in 1999, from the University of Oklahoma. He's made steady progress through the Expos' farm system, hitting for power at each level. He hit 27 homers for Harrisburg in the Eastern League in 2002, leading the circuit, but he hit just .235 and fanned 115 times. On the other hand, he also drew 93 walks. I was very interested to see how he'd do in Triple-A this year. He did fine, hitting .281 with a .419 OBP and a .447 SLG. His home run production dropped to 15, but he drew 101 walks, and hit for a much higher average.
I saw Pascucci play college ball, and I saw him in action for Edmonton earlier this year. He's tall (6-6) and lanky, and hits the ball a long way when he gets his arms extended. It looked to me like he'd shortened his swing up a bit this year, at least in comparison to when I saw him for Oklahoma. Despite his increase in batting average this year, I think he'll have a hard time breaking .260 at the major league level. Edmonton is a good place to hit, so we have to cut down his numbers to account for that. Still, I like his patience and OBP. If someone gave him 500 at-bats at the major league level, I think Val would hit .240-.250, with 15-20 homers in a full season, plus enough walks to have a useful OBP. Whether that's enough to be a regular or not would depend on the team.
Jason from New Jersey asks: I've heard a lot about most of the Mets' top prospects, like Scott Kazmir, Justin Huber, and Jose Reyes (who seemed to be more than holding his own in the majors before spraining his ankle on Aug. 31). One guy I haven't heard about in a while is David Wright, a third base prospect I'd read a lot about before the season began. Any updates on his ETA in the majors?
I love Wright, and he deserves more attention than he's received.
A supplemental first-round pick in 2001 out of high school in Virginia, Wright has made steady progress. He hit .266 with 11 homers and 76 walks in the Sally League in '02. In '03, he boosted his production playing at St. Lucie in the Florida State League, hitting .270 with a .369 OBP and a .459 SLG. He is an across-the-board producer, hitting 39 doubles, 15 homers, drawing 72 walks, stealing 19 bases. He does a lot of things well. The doubles are an indicator of more power to come, and he shows both tools and skills. Wright is also a good defensive third baseman, and made just 16 errors in 130 games this year. He has fine lateral range and a strong arm.
Wright has an excellent work ethic and is easy to coach. He's improved each year, and I think he's a great candidate for a major breakout in 2004. I wouldn't expect to see him in Shea Stadium until sometime in '05, but a big season in Double-A next year could alter that timetable.
John Sickels is the author of the 2003 Baseball Prospect Book, which can be ordered from his Web site, JohnSickels.com. His biography of Bob Feller will be published this fall by Brassey's. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife, son, and two cats. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com.
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