Angels loaded with top pitching prospects
John Sickels offers analysis on prospects with the Angels, Indians, Brewers and Diamondbacks.
E.M. writes: I'm an Angels fan and I keep reading how they have a ton of pitching talent. While all these pitchers (Bobby Jenks, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez, etc.) sound great, I know they won't all pan out. And given my naivete regarding the minor leagues and the odds that a top prospect will actually turn into a contributor, I was wondering if you could give me a rough idea of how often top pitching prospects turn into top major leaguers?
The attrition rate for pitching prospects is certainly higher than for hitting prospects. History shows this, though the exact "success rate" will vary depending on how you design a study. A good rule of thumb is that for every 10 decent pitching prospects, you'll get one good pitcher, two average ones, two below-average pitchers, and five complete failures, often due to injury. Sometimes teams have a run of luck, good scouting, good coaching, or some combination of those factors and exceed those percentages. Sometimes a team can collect a dozen pitching prospects and have them all fail. It's a tough business.
Of the Angels group, Jenks has the highest ceiling, but also has to prove that he can throw strikes consistently. Santana probably has the best overall combination of stuff and command, and should be ready soon. Saunders must show he can recover from the elbow problem that cost him all of '03. Guys like Rafael Rodriguez, Abel Moreno, and Nick Touchstone have live arms and should be watched closely in '04 for signs of quick development. Don't overlook Steve Shell, a control artist right-hander who looks like a major sleeper to me.
Zach from Muskingum College in Ohio asks: Could you tell me a little about the potential of Lake County first baseman Michael Aubrey? Skipping two levels and going straight to the South Atlantic League gives me hope that Indians fans may be seeing this kid in Cleveland soon.
I thought Aubrey was the second-best hitting prospect in the 2003 college draft class, behind only Rickie Weeks. The Tulane first baseman/outfielder went 11th overall to the Indians. Frankly, I think he should have gone five or six slots sooner than that, and that several teams will regret not drafting him.
Aubrey hit .348 with a .409 OBP and a .551 SLG after signing, in 38 games, not a huge sample but not tremendously small, either. He has a great swing, better power than some people expected, and solid plate discipline. His strikeout rate is low, and I think he is the kind of hitter who will produce both power and batting average. He is a very good defensive first baseman, with a strong arm, and can play in the outfield if needed.
I think Aubrey will advance quickly. You might see him in the Show late in '04, though '05 is probably a better bet. The Indians have a loaded farm system, and it shouldn't be long before they threaten the Twins, White Sox, and Royals.
Fred from Kenosha, Wisc., asks: As a depressed Brewers fan, I look for signs of hope whenever I can find them. I noticed this lefty, Manny Parra, who looks like a prospect on paper. Can you give me an update on his chances of having an impact in the majors?
Parra is a well-kept secret, one of the crown jewels in a rapidly improving Milwaukee farm system, and one of the better LHP prospects in the game. He was a draft-and-follow guy, picked in the 26th round in 2001 but not signing until just before the '02 draft. In 188 career innings, he's gone 14-3 with a 2.87 ERA and a 172/34 K/BB ratio. He was 11-2, 117/24 in 139 innings last year at Class A Beloit.
Parra is a three-pitch guy, operating with a 90-92 mph fastball, a curveball, and a changeup. His velocity is above-average for a lefty, and he has precision control of all three pitches. He has good instincts, and understands the intellectual side of the game better than most 21-year-olds. He missed the last two weeks of the season with a pulled muscle, but it is not expected to be a major problem. He is very efficient, which should help him stay healthy. I gave him a Grade B+ in my prospect book this year, which is high praise.
Griff from Washington writes: I was wondering if you could give me some information about Diamondbacks outfield prospect Jay Garthwaite. All I know is that he was drafted in the 12th round in '99 by Oakland, and after attending the University of Washington, was drafted by the Diamondbacks in the 14th round in '02. He put up some impressive stats in his first year of pro ball with one of the D-Backs' minor league affiliates. He hit 22 home runs and had 87 RBI in 437 at-bats and also had a .351 on-base percentage. Tell me what you know about him?
You lay out the basics for Garthwaite very well. To add to your profile, he's 23 years old, 6-2, 210 pounds, and hits from the right side. He's a big guy with significant power potential, but I would be careful about calling him a top prospect just yet.
He hit .297 in 2003, but his home park at Class A Lancaster (California League) was a great place to hit, and Garthwaite will have to prove he can hit for average and get on base at higher levels. His plate discipline can be shaky at times, and he needs to show he can handle breaking balls and changeups in Double-A. Given his age and these questions, we should avoid praising him as a top prospect until we get more data against better competition.
John Sickels is the author of the 2004 Baseball Prospect Book, which can be ordered only at his Web site, johnsickels.com. He is also the author of "Bob Feller: Ace of the Greatest Generation," which will be released just before Christmas by Brassey's. You can send John questions or comments at JASickels@aol.com.
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