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Originally Published: March 5, 2004

Indians' Gerut has a high ceiling

John Sickels offers analysis on several top young players, including the Indians' Jody Gerut.

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By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com
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Steve from Evanston, Illinois, writes: Last year, Scott Podsednik of the Brewers, Jody Gerut of the Indians, and Luis Matos of the Orioles all came out of nowhere to have great seasons. How would you rate the long-term value of these three outfielders in terms of overall success at the major league level?

One of the fun things about prospect analysis is when guys come out of nowhere. Podsednik, Gerut and Matos were all big surprises in '03. Although all had shown ability in the minor leagues, I don't think anyone expected them to do what they did last year. How much of this is repeatable?

Podsednik showed speed and on-base ability in the minors. He may have been a bit over his head last year, and it could have been his peak season. He was 27, the age where peak seasons are rather common. My guess is that he's going to settle in as a .280ish hitter, with steals, walks, and gap power, about what he showed last year but with a bit less batting average. I don't expect he'll get much better than he already is, given a normal growth curve. He's a good player, but not really a star.

Matos has more power than Podsednik, but less speed. His minor league track record is erratic, punctuated by injuries, which stalled his development. Matos was 24 last year, so he has more growth time ahead of him than Podsednick does. Assuming good health, I think Matos has two possible career tracks. He could concentrate on making contact and spraying the ball around, which would raise his batting average and, given a regular growth curve, make him a threat for a batting title at some point. Or he could concentrate on developing his power, which would boost his SLG but perhaps lower his batting average.

Gerut has the most current power of the group, and at age 26 lies halfway in age between Matos and Podsednik. Like Matos, his career was stalled by injuries, but he was healthy last year and finally showed what he could do. Being a former second-round pick, he has the best scouting pedigree of the three. He's the best bet for power production, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him hit over .300 at some point.

My personal opinion is that Gerut is going to be the best of the trio, with Matos a close second. Podsednik is a fine player, but has the least potential to move beyond where he already is, since he is the oldest.

Rick L. asks: With all the talk of who might replace Aaron Boone at third base for the Yankees, I was wondering what you know about Brian Myrow? He is old for a Double-A player at 27, but his lifetime on-base percentage in over 1,300 career minor league at-bats is nearly .420 and his slugging percentage is close to .500. Several analysts have discounted him as a major league possibility because of his age, but I read one scout who said you shouldn't give that too much weight since Myrow was stuck behind Drew Henson's contract or "he would have been in Triple-A long before this?" Do you have any information on this dark-horse candidate?

Rick submitted his question before the Yankees acquired Alex Rodriguez. If Myrow was stuck in the mud before, he's buried under an avalanche now.

Which doesn't mean he can't help someone. Myrow is an independent league refugee, playing in the Northern League for three years after his college career at Louisiana Tech. The Yankees picked him up as a free agent in 2001, and he's been ripping line drives and drawing walks ever since. In 2003 he hit .306 with 18 homers, 107 walks, and a .447 OBP at Double-A Trenton.

With a bat like that, you'd think he'd be in demand. It's true that he should have been in Triple-A a long time ago, and it's not really his fault he's been stuck in the minors for so long. But Myrow is old at 27, and his defense at third base is mediocre at best. His ability to whack doubles and draw walks would make him useful on a major league bench if he could hit .250, which I think he could. His defense and age will prevent him from getting a clear shot at a regular job, though it's always possible he could pull a Podsednik at some point.

His chance won't come in New York, and he needs to continue hot hitting in the minors to get a shot with another team. It wouldn't surprise me to see a stat-oriented club like Boston, Oakland, or Toronto pick him up eventually and give him a chance to earn a bench job. There are certainly worse players who have earned millions of dollars in the majors.

D.D. from Homestead, Florida, writes: I was looking over the Marlins' system, and I noticed an interesting pitcher, a right-hander named Lincoln Holdzkom. His strikeout rate is very high. Is he a prospect?

Yes, Holdzkom is definitely a prospect, though a bit of a sleeper who hasn't received much attention yet. That's a good thing if you're looking for a potential prospect bargain.

Holdzkom was a seventh-round pick in 2001 out of Arizona Western Junior College. He is a big guy at 6-4, 240 pounds, and has a fastball to match his size at 94 mph. The pitch has natural sink, and he complements it with a power breaking ball. He's been used mostly as a reliever so far. In 147 career innings at the A-ball level, Holdzkom has allowed just 92 hits, with 179 strikeouts and zero home runs allowed. On the other hand, he's also issued 90 walks, and has a disturbing tendency to become emotional on the mound, which is not what you want in a potential closer.

Holdzkom needs to sharpen his command, watch his weight, and gain composure in pressure situations. He doesn't turn 22 until later this month, so he still has plenty of time to do those things. He's raw, but his potential is impressive, if he can learn to harness it. I gave him a Grade C in my book this year, which may have been a notch too low.

F.W. asks: What is your opinion on Ryan Ketchner's stock as a rising pitcher in the Mariners' farm system. He has won three MVP awards, including last September when he led the Inland Empire 66ers to a California League (Class A) championship. Ryan is a ball control pitcher who does not walk many batters. His style reminds me of Jamie Moyer and Greg Maddux. I believe he's a sleeper and will surprise a lot of naysayers. How far do you think he'll get?

Ketchner is the exact opposite of Holdzkom: a composed lefty with a mediocre fastball rather than an emotional power right-hander.

Ketchner was drafted in the 10th round in 2000, from high school in Lantana, Florida. He isn't physically imposing at 6-1, 190, and his fastball is mediocre at 86 mph. But he has a good curveball and changeup, and has shown excellent command and control at the A-ball level. He posted a 3.45 ERA in the California League last year, with a 159/33 K/BB ratio in 157 innings. His career marks are a 3.18 ERA in 351 innings, with a 368/93 K/BB ratio. He should get a shot in Double-A in 2004, and that will go a long way towards determining his exact status as a prospect. Scouts like his command and composure, but worry that his fastball won't be good enough for him to thrive at higher levels.

Ketchner is partially deaf, having about 40 percent of normal hearing. He's learned to adjust on the field, and it is seldom an issue in game play, though it makes for an interesting human interest story.

I agree with you that he's a sleeper. My guess is that he'll pitch well in Double-A, but that Triple-A will be a sterner test.

John Sickels is the author of The Baseball Prospect Book 2004, which can be ordered through his Web site, Johnsickels.com. His other book, Bob Feller: Ace of the Greatest Generation, is also out, and can be ordered through on-line book outlets or your local bookstore. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife Jeri, son Nicholas, and feline friends Toonces and Spot.