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Originally Published: March 25, 2004

Cubs lack impact hitting prospects

John Sickels looks at hitting prospects in the Cubs' system along with players from other organizations.

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By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com
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S.S. writes: I know the Cubs' farm system is deep in pitching, but who is the club's best hitting prospect? Could it be Ryan Harvey? Do you think also Dave Kelton will ever become viable as an everyday player?

The Cubs system is awash in pitching. Angel Guzman, Andy Sisco, Justin Jones, Chadd Blasko, Bobby Brownlie, and Ricky Nolasco are all excellent pitching prospects, and there is a second tier beyond them (including Luke Hagerty, Felix Sanchez, and Billy Petrick) that could make big strides in '04. The Cubs have so many solid arms that many pitchers who would be top prospects in other organizations are overlooked in this one.

The situation isn't as rosy in hitting. The best hitting prospect the Cubs have, in my opinion, is outfielder Felix Pie. A Dominican signed as a free agent in 2001, Pie hit .285 with 22 doubles, nine triples, four homers, 41 walks and 19 steals last year in the Class A Midwest League. He's only 19, is very athletic, and has shown signs of being able to develop baseball skills to go with his excellent physical tools. But he's at least two years away from being ready to help.

Harvey, a 2003 first-round pick by the Cubs, draws comparisons to Dale Murphy, since he's tall, lanky, strong and fast. A knee injury in high school hurt his production a bit last year, but scouts drool over his power potential and speed. I'm concerned about his plate discipline and strike zone judgment, which need work, and while his potential is immense, we need to see how rapidly he can adjust to pro conditions. He's at least three years away.

Closer to The Show are infielder Brendan Harris and Kelton, an outfielder. Harris is a favorite of mine, a scrappy player with doubles power, decent plate discipline, and the ability to play second base or third base. He may not have enough home run power to be a regular third baseman, but he could be an excellent bench player, and should be ready late this year. Kelton projects as a .250-.260 hitter at the major league level, and could hit 15-20 homers in a full season. The problem with Kelton is that he's been unable to solve his defensive problems at third base, meaning he's now a full-time corner outfielder/first baseman, and his bat isn't quite good enough for him to be an above-average regular at those positions.

The Cubs have a few other bats of interest (third baseman Matt Craig, outfielders Jason Dubois and Nic Jackson), but none of them look like strong regulars at this point. The Cubs have outstanding depth in pitching prospects, but available hitting prospects are much less impressive, with no one looking like a sure star right now.

Nick from Poughkeepsie, N.Y., asks: I'm wondering about Kansas City minor leaguer Donald Murphy and his chances to develop into an offensive-minded second baseman. To me, he seems to be a better pick than fellow second baseman Alberto Callaspo of the Angels system, but I am interested what you have to say on this matter.

I saw both Murphy and Callaspo play last year in the Midwest League, on two occasions against each other (Murphy playing for Burlington and Callaspo for Cedar Rapids). Both are very solid infield prospects, though their styles of play are different.

Murphy was drafted by the Royals in the fifth round in 2002, out of Orange Coast Junior College in California. He's smallish at 5-10, 180, but he is a good athlete. His plate discipline is excellent, and he will drive pitches to the opposite field, or pull the ball down the line for power occasionally. I don't think he'll be a big home run guy, but he should hit plenty of doubles and draw walks. His running speed is average, but he's fundamentally sound and swiped 15 bases last year. Murphy hit .313 with 29 doubles, 98 RBI and 65 walks in 132 games for Burlington. His defense isn't spectacular, but he is reliable and can hold his position in the middle of the diamond for the long run. At age 21, he's pretty young, and I think he's an overlooked prospect.

The Angels signed Callaspo out of Venezuelan in 2001. He hit .327 with 38 doubles, 42 walks, and 20 steals for Cedar Rapids last year. Callaspo is taller, lankier, and more athletic than Murphy, and plays with flair and grace. He has better range than Murphy, but is less reliable on the routine play. Offensively, he needs better plate discipline, but is adept at making contact and doesn't strike out much. He's two months younger than Murphy, so their ages are comparable.

From seeing both play, I think Callaspo has a higher physical ceiling than Murphy, but also a greater risk of failure. I gave Murphy a B- and Callaspo a B in my book this year. In retrospect, I think I'd move Murphy up to straight B, and rate both about evenly. Their styles are very different, but both have a chance to be good regulars.

Roger K. from Escondido, Calif., writes: Can you tell me something about Padres first base prospect Jon Knott? No one seems to ever talk about him, but his numbers are good. Is he a better prospect than Tagg Bozied at this point? I was thinking about drafting Bozied in my fantasy league, but Knott looks better to me.

Bozied and Knott are a good example of how unpredictable prospects can be.

Bozied was a college star at the University of San Francisco, and much sought after by pro teams. He was considered a first-round talent, but concerns about his bonus demands knocked him back. The Padres drafted him in the third round in 2001, but he went to the Northern League and played independent ball for Sioux Falls. He eventually signed with the Padres in the fall of '01. Through 250 career minor league games, Bozied has hit .266 with 38 homers. But he hit just .273 with 14 homers last year for Portland in the Pacific Coast League. Scouts say his raw power remains excellent, but he's had problems with strike zone discipline and an inconsistent mental approach at the plate. Unless something changes, he'll have a hard time hitting .250 at the major league level, and his power production and walk rate aren't good enough for him to get away with that.

Knott, like Bozied, was also a successful college player, in his case at Mississippi State, where he hit .359 as a senior in 2001. No one drafted him, however, and the Padres picked him up as a free agent. He annihilated California League pitching in '02, hitting .341 with a .540 SLG in 93 games. Moving up to Double-A in '03, he lost almost 100 points off his batting average, hitting just .252, but continued to generate excellent power, knocking 27 homers and 32 doubles and slugging .514. Knott has nearly as much raw power as Bozied, but has superior plate discipline and draws more walks.

Like Bozied, Knott isn't likely to hit much higher than .250 in The Show, but he has better strike zone judgment and will likely post a higher OBP. At this point, I would rate him as a superior prospect to Bozied. I can't say I'm wild about either one of them; both could end up stuck in the minors as Triple-A sluggers in the Jason Hart mode. Knott and Bozied are very good illustrations of how prospect fortunes ebb and flow, the undrafted player turning into a similar, even superior, prospect to the highly-sought bonus baby.

John Sickels is the author of The Baseball Prospect Book 2004, which can be ordered through his Web site, Johnsickels.com. His other book, Bob Feller: Ace of the Greatest Generation, is also out, and can be ordered through on-line book outlets or your local bookstore. He lives in Lawrence, Kansas, with his wife Jeri, son Nicholas, and feline friends Toonces and Spot.