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Originally Published: November 1, 2004

Do A's have a keeper in Cruz?

John Sickels answers your questions on a few prospects in the minor leagues.

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By John Sickels
Special to ESPN.com
Archive

Congratulations are in order for the Boston Red Sox and their long-suffering fans. Enjoy the sweet taste of victory, ladies and gentlemen. You earned it. Perhaps the Cubs can win in 2005.

To the mailbag!

Joe from Yuba City, Calif. writes:
I was wondering if you could expand on Nelson Cruz, who was just added to the A's 40-man roster. He put up some good numbers at three different levels last year (.326 with 26 home runs and 99 RBI in 137 games overall). He seemed to have a pretty high strikeout rate, but is only 23 and is rail thin (6-foot-3, 175 pounds). The A's put a lot of emphasis on strike zone judgment so maybe that can be fixed.

Cruz is a Dominican, signed in 1998. He's actually 24, turning over a new birthday on July 1st. He is a very good athlete, thin as you mention, but also fast and strong. His biggest problem has been poor plate discipline. In 2003, he hit 20 homers and stole 10 bases in the Midwest League, but he hit just .238 and was handicapped by a horrible 29/128 BB/K ratio in 109 games.

Cruz made a major improvement in 2004, putting up the excellent combined numbers you mentioned above. Breaking it down, he hit .345 with 11 homers in the first half in the California League, then .313 with 14 homers in Double-A in the second half. He went 3-for-13 (.231) with one round-tripper in late-season action in Triple-A. He drew 51 walks on the season, almost doubling his walk rate compared to 2003. He did combine for 149 strikeouts, so he still swings-and-misses a lot.

You're right about the Oakland system; they do emphasize plate discipline in their hitting instruction, and it is quite possible that this is responsible for Cruz's improvement this year. The spiking walk rate is certainly a good sign. However, I would avoid getting overly excited just yet. His strikeout rate is still high, and while he did prove himself in Double-A, at age 24 he is not a spring chicken as prospects go. He's not ancient either, but he does need to show he can continue hitting like this in Triple-A. He fanned seven times with just one walk in his brief Triple-A exposure, a small sample no doubt, but still a worrisome ratio given his past troubles.

Robert from Syracuse, N.Y., writes:
What's the update on Blue Jays pitching prospect Francisco Rosario? Did he recover OK from Tommy John surgery?

Rosario was all the rage as a pitching prospect back in 2002, when he pitched very well in A-ball and showed off a mid-90s fastball. But a blown elbow and subsequent Tommy John surgery cost him all of the 2003 season. He came back this summer, and did much to re-establish himself.

Rosario began '04 with six starts at Dunedin in the Florida State League. He was put on a strict pitch count and limited to just 17 innings total, fanning 16 while walking 11 and posting a 4.67 ERA. This was good enough for the Jays to move him up to Double-A New Hampshire for the second half, with an increased workload. He threw 48 innings there, and while his ERA was mediocre at 4.31, he posted a decent 45/16 K/BB ratio. Most importantly, he has his velocity back according to reports, and is well-positioned to move forward again in 2005.

Rosario still throws hard, and still has a good changeup. His breaking ball was erratic before the injury, and still needs work. He is now 24 years old and needs to step up in '05 to maintain his status as a top prospect, but I am optimistic at this point. If stamina becomes a problem, or if he still has trouble developing his breaking ball, he could end up being a reliever eventually rather than a starter.

Artie from Long Beach, Calif., asks:
I'm a big Dodgers fan, and I noticed that Delwyn Young, a second baseman, put up big numbers in the Florida State League. But no one talks about him much as a prospect. So, how good is he?

Young was drafted in the fourth round in '02, out of Santa Barbara Community College. He hasn't received much attention, but he sure looks like a good prospect to me. He hit .323 with 38 doubles and 15 homers in the Sally League in 2003, and followed that up with a .281, 36 double, 22 homer campaign in 2004. And this was in the Florida State League, which is not an easy place to hit, especially for power.

Young is just 22. He's a short guy at a generous 5-10, but he's very strong and has excellent zip in his bat. A switch-hitter, he has power from both sides of the plate. The large number of doubles he hits could indicate more home run power to come, and he already hits quite a few taters. He does swing and miss a lot: he fanned 134 times in 470 at-bats this year. But his walk rate is adequate, and you can't argue with his production.

The main question for Young is defense. He made 23 errors this year, many on routine plays. Young has a strong arm and enough athleticism to be a good gloveman, but he has some problems with his footwork, and does not always concentrate well. The Dodgers would love it if he can stay at second base, of course, but it's possible he may have to move to another position eventually.

Wherever he ends up defensively, Delwyn has one of the most intriguing bats in the minor leagues, and should be watched closely in Double-A next year.

I will start taking orders for The Baseball Prospect Book 2005 in a couple of weeks. I will let you know when everything is set up.

John Sickels is the author of The Baseball Prospect Book 2004, which can be ordered through his Web site, Johnsickels.com. His other book, Bob Feller: Ace of the Greatest Generation, is also out, and can be ordered through online book outlets or your local bookstore. He lives in Lawrence, Kan., with his wife, Jeri; son, Nicholas; and feline friends Toonces and Spot.