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Rookie starters reshaping races
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By Peter Gammons
Special to ESPN.com
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Aug. 12
Dontrelle Willis stuck the Marlins right in the middle of the National League wild-card race. Brandon Webb held the Diamondbacks' head above the sand without Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. Jerome Williams saved a Giants staff decimated by injury. Horacio Ramirez gave the Braves what they needed, a minimum salary horse. Rich Harden walked in and regenerated the A's. Jeriome Robertson has saved a thin Astros rotation.
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In contrast, for two years, now, we've had contenders promising that as the trade deadline approached, they'd be able to get starting pitchers from non-contenders. "It's really been true for these last two years that teams that have pitching won't trade it," Dodgers GM Dan Evans said. "There simply hasn't been quality starting pitching on the market. There were, for instances, reports that we would trade Odalis Perez for a hitter (some Reds folks thought they could get Perez and cash for Aaron Boone and move him on for prospects and cash), but they weren't true. If we traded Perez, how could we replace him? That's the problem. Most teams don't have the depth to trade a frontline starter."
So, this year, the most significant starters acquired near the deadline were Jeff Suppan -- whom the Pirates signed over the winter at a clearinghouse price -- and Sidney Ponson. The best in-season acquisition was Livan Hernandez by the Expos, but he was a dump by the Giants, who are paying him to pitch in Canada.
In 2002, the Expos made the one big move for Bartolo Colon, whose 10-4, 3.31 performance in the National League helped Montreal finish 83-79. After the season, he had to be moved, so in the long-term view, they traded Grady Sizemore, Clifford Lee and Brandon Phillips for Rocky Biddle.
Otherwise, only Chuck Finley actually started in the post-season, going 7-4, 3.80 for the Cardinals. The combined Jeff Weaver-Ted Lilly-Ryan Dempster-John Thomson-Jamey Wright-Ismael Valdes record was 18-18 for their acquiring teams.
What this season has shown is that to continually regenerate starting pitching, a team had better be able to develop young talent. Look at Oakland. In 1999, 2000 and 2003 they've had Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Harden come out of the minors and inject pennant-drive life -- Zito had 11 weeks of major-league experience in 2000 and defeated Hall of Famer Roger Clemens in the playoffs. Willis, Webb, Jerome Williams (not to mention Jesse Foppert), Robertson and Horacio Ramirez have all been significant players in pennant races, likely far more effective than the veterans they might have been traded to get. Webb has been one of the handful of best pitchers in the National League since coming up, carrying the D-Backs into the race (along with several other rookies Bob Brenly used so wisely) until Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling came back. In fact, if you go to Lee Sinins' Baseball Immortals you'll find Webb has been so good that he leads the league in "neutral winning percentage," no insignificant statistic.
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BY THE NUMBERS
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Rookie call-ups in 2003:
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Player
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W-L
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ERA
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D. Willis, Fla
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11-3
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3.10
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B. Webb, Ari
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7-5
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2.45
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J. Williams, SF
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5-2
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2.96
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R. Harden, Oak
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3-1
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1.69
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H. Ramirez, Atl
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8-4
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4.15
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J. Robertson, Hou
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11-5
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4.70
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D. Haren, StL
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3-3
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4.74
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J. Gobble, KC
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2-0
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0.73
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In-season trades, 2003:
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Player
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W-L
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ERA
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S. Ponson, SF
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0-1
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2.45
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J. Suppan, Bos
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0-1
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9.53
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L. Hernandez, Mon
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12-7
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3.20
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Starters signed in 2003:
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Player
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W-L
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ERA
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J. Lima, KC
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7-0
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2.96
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R. Villone, Hou
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4-2
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3.09
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K. Appier, KC
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0-1
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3.60
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P. Abbott, KC
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0-1
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11.57
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J. Brower, SF
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7-4
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4.02
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W. Alvarez, LA
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2-1
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2.90
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In-season trades, 2002:
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Player
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W-L
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ERA
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B. Colon, Mon
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10-4
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3.31
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C. Finley, StL
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7-4
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3.80
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R. Dempster, Cin
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5-5
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6.19
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J. Weaver, NYY
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5-3
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4.04
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T. Lilly, Oak
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2-1
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4.63
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J. Thomson, NYM
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2-6
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4.31
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I. Valdez, Sea
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2-3
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4.93
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Granted, the Royals have turned to Jose Lima, Paul Abbott and Kevin Appier, but Jimmy Gobble came out of the Texas League to throw in two important starts. In their injury-riddled nightmare, the Cardinals finally gave up on the cost of the trade market, and brought up Dan Haren -- a few starts north of Double-A -- and he has pitched better than most of the names Walt Jocketty was told he should acquire.
"Not only are you talking about pitchers who make a difference," said Billy Beane, "but they're lost cost, which allows most teams to do something else at another position. It's sometimes hard to gamble on those young pitchers, but they're the lifeblood." So, at the deadline, Beane decided not to trade 22-year-old Joe Blanton, who has eaten up the Midwest and Texas Leagues a year after being picked in the first round out of the University of Kentucky (like Webb). After seeing Blanton throw a shutout last weekend in Midland, Beane knows he made the right decision because at this time next season Kelvim Escobar would be gone and Blanton may be better than anyone on the trade market.
Then look at what's happened in Colorado since the Dan O'Dowd administration has begun developing pitching, some of which he notes was drafted by Bob Gebhardt. The latest? Chin-hui Tsao. Special.
"This organization learned a lesson about getting pitching from outside," Rangers manager Buck Showalter said. "We're trying to get good arms in every one of our deals (Josh Rupe, Ricardo Rodriguez, Ryan Snare for three), and John Hart's done a terrific job. We've drafted a lot of arms, and we have to build it from what we have, and we will." Chan Ho Park has ensured there will be no more big free-agent bucks to veteran promises.
"I think everywhere you go throughout baseball, the two organizations you hear people talking about are the Indians and Blue Jays," one assistant GM said. "It's talent, but it's also pitching. They've both got a lot of really good arms on the way."
"The young pitching is the concentration of our organization," Evans said. "We have some very good young pitchers close to the big leagues (Joel Hanrahan, Edwin Jackson and 18-year-old lefty Greg Miller, already in Double-A at Jacksonville). They could have a huge impact quickly, but we need them all to come together because we still are building depth in the organization."
There were, certainly, off-season moves for pitchers that have impacted pennant races. However, the four most important -- Russ Ortiz, Bartolo Colon, Mark Redman, Kevin Millwood -- were all virtual salary dumps. Ortiz, Colon, Redmond and Millwood for Damien Moss, Rocky Biddle and Johnny Estrada? Mike Hampton has helped the Braves, but if you follow the money trail in that transaction, you're going to find Ollie North and two guys in the mountains of El Salvador were somehow involved. Elmer Dessens cost Erubiel Durazo -- winner Oakland.
Even the free-agent market turned out to be a costly bust. The two best free agents turned out to be Esteban Loiaza, who right now is in a great run for the Cy Young with Tim Hudson, and Suppan, who eventually got the Pirates their long-term solution at second base in Freddy Sanchez. Tom Glavine's ERA is just shy of 5.00, Kenny Rogers, OK. Here's a pitching number: Darren Oliver, virtually free, was 10-6, 4.81 in Colorado before his last outing, Hampton 9-5, 4.43 in Atlanta.
This winter's free-agent market does include Greg Maddux, Colon, Andy Pettitte, Millwood, Ponson, Escobar and, in the unlikely event he doesn't get his innings, Livan Hernandez. Javier Vazquez likely will be moved to get rid of his salary, a la Colon. But none is expected to come close to what Maddux got last winter, or what Chan Ho Park took in from the Rangers two winters ago.
But there's a second level to all this. "Five years ago, all we heard about were home run records, steroids, corked bats and the strike zone," one assistant GM said. "But there's a very good generation of young pitchers being developed throughout the game, starting with Oakland and Houston. Look around the minors and I think you'll see there is a trend." Next June's draft may have as much college pitching talent as any in many years.
So, two pennant races from now, we may be hearing the names Chris Lambert, Jeremy Sowers and Jeff Niemann as well as Greg Miller, Cole Hamels, Blanton and Jorge de la Rosa and how much more important they turned out to be than the retreads on the market.
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