Phillies have edge against Pettitte in Game 6

ESPN.com

Updated: November 3, 2009

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Andy Pettitte is 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts this postseason.

By Eduardo Perez, ESPN

The defending champion Phillies fought their way back into the World Series with a big victory at home, pushing the World Series to Game 6 in the Bronx. The Yankees' Andy Pettitte will face the Phillies' Pedro Martinez in a battle that will likely go down to the last few innings.

In Game 6, the momentum is definitely in the Phillies' favor despite the fact that the Yankees are playing at home. I don't expect Pettitte to be at his best this go-round. Instead, I expect him to use his wits in order to survive. If he is able to give the Yankees five to six good innings, he will be a success. Joe Girardi is taking a big gamble by going with Pettitte on three days' rest. But at the same time, he is sticking with his plan, and you have to give him credit for that. If Pettitte doesn't look good, Girardi is going to take a lot of heat.

MARTINEZ VS. PETTITTE

Game 6 will be the first head-to-head postseason matchup between Pedro Martinez and Andy Pettitte. Here's how they've fared against each other in six career regular-season meetings:

Martinez Pettitte
W-L 3-3 3-3
IP 39 2/3 33 2/3
ERA 3.86 5.88
Opp. BA .208 .298
K-BB 53-6 28-11

In Game 5, it would have been less of a risk going with Chad Gaudin than A.J. Burnett. When your team is up 3-1, it's a calculated gamble. If Gaudin would have lost Game 5, so what? The Yankees would still be up 3-2, and have A.J. Burnett on four days' rest. Then for Game 7, they would have Pettitte on full rest; they really would not need to use CC Sabathia again. If possible, they could use Sabathia for two or three innings, mix and match pitchers and then that would serve as the bridge to get to Mariano Rivera.

The Yankees would have been in the driver's seat for Game 7, but right now they aren't. Sure, the Bronx Bombers are up 3-2 and they can certainly win Wednesday, but their Game 7 edge would have been more convincing if the Yankees would have started Gaudin (win or lose).

Pettitte, who holds the record for the most clinching wins in playoff history (five), isn't worried about the records. He just wants to be a champion again. At this stage in his career, this postseason has served as a dip in the pool of rejuvenation. It's not about clinchers; it's about getting a World Series ring.

It may be tough for Pettitte to measure up against Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez a second time around. The dynamics have changed since Game 3. Now that these left-handed hitters have seen Pettitte pitch within a short period of time, he's going to have to bring his A game. These are hitters who make adjustments quickly. Howard has a record-tying 12 strikeouts so far in the World Series, but he's the type of hitter who can turn it on quickly, so watch out.

Of course, everyone remembers Pedro Martinez tipping his hat to the Yankees and calling them his "daddy." But don't crown the Yankees with their 27th championship just yet! With Martinez coming off five days' rest, somebody is going to be calling somebody "papi" or "daddy." I expect the Phillies to prevail in Game 6, but the Yankees will win it all in Game 7.

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INSIDE EDGE: NUMBERS TO KNOW

Andy Pettitte got the win in Game 3 of the World Series, overcoming a lack of command (three walks, 57 percent of his pitches for strikes -- both low marks for the hurler during the 2009 postseason). Pettitte surrendered two home runs to Jayson Werth, but neutralized Philly's left-handed trio of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez (combined 0-for-8, 5 K's).

Excluding an overall gem in his 2009 postseason debut, Pettitte has been lights-out against lefties while leaving the light on against righties. Pitching on short rest in Game 6, Pettitte will look to continue his success against lefties and manage the damage by righties in hopes of closing out the series.

Pettitte: Last 3 Starts, 2009 Postseason
Vs. LHB vs. RHB
Opponents' Batting Average .188 .302
Opponents' Slugging Percentage .188 .585
Opponents' Extra-Base Hits 0 7

-- ESPN Stats & Information


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BBTN MINUTE: KEYS FOR GAME 6

SIMON SAYS

Simon Says ESPN researcher Mark Simon digs deep looking for the night's best baseball numbers.

Tonight, although the World Series hasn't gone six games since 2003, he looks at some Game 6 trends from recent Series history.

Game 6 Tendencies: World Series History
• Nine of past 12 Game 6s decided by 1-2 runs
• Home team has won 10 of past 13 Game 6s
• No HR in four of past five Game 6s
• Ten of 61 Game 6s decided in walk-off fashion

BUSTER OLNEY ON PHILLIES' GAME 7 OPTIONS

BATTER VS. PITCHER

Each team has already seen the Game 6 starter in this series. Here are the updated career numbers against Pedro Martinez and Andy Pettitte.

Phillies vs. Pettitte
PLAYER STATS
Paul Bako 0-for-1 (.000)
Eric Bruntlett 0-for-1 (.000)
Pedro Feliz 3-for-10 (.300), 2 K
Ben Francisco 2-for-5 (.400), 1 K
Ryan Howard 1-for-12 (.083), 3 K
Raul Ibanez 6-for-24 (.250), 1 HR, 7 K
Jimmy Rollins 5-for-20 (.250), 1 HR, 2 K
Carlos Ruiz 2-for-4 (.500), 1 HR
Matt Stairs 0-for-9 (.000), 1 K
Chase Utley 1-for-10 (.100), 5 K
Shane Victorino 3-for-8 (.375), 1 K
Jayson Werth 3-for-16 (.188), 3 HR, 5 K

Yankees vs. Martinez
PLAYER STATS
Robinson Cano 0-for-15 (.000)
Johnny Damon 5-for-28 (.179), 5 K
Eric Hinske 8-for-30 (.267), 1 HR, 10 K
Jerry Hairston Jr. 28-for-105 (.367), 7 K
Derek Jeter 4-for-7 (.267), 4 HR, 29 K
Hideki Matsui 11-for-45 (.244), 2 HR, 8 K
Jose Molina 2-for-11 (.182), 1 K
Jorge Posada 15-for-72 (.208), 4 HR, 34 K
Alex Rodriguez 17-for-61 (.279), 1 HR, 22 K
Nick Swisher 0-for-2 (.000)
Mark Teixeira 2-for-9 (.222), 1 HR, 4 K