Mark Cunningham/Getty Images

With CC Sabathia 6-0 over his past seven starts, the Yankees looked primed for a big postseason.

By Steve Berthiaume, ESPN

We're into the second week of September. If a contender is about to nosedive, that free fall is already under way, and simply hasn't grown dire enough for us to notice yet. As a great man once said, and as you'll hear us occasionally repeat on "Baseball Tonight," "We knew … but we didn't know …"

So, let's be proactive, put it on record before the September swoon. Tim Kurkjian asked me out of the blue while we were watching games this weekend, "Who makes it to the World Series?"

I said, "Cardinals vs. Yankees." Think about your World Series contenders; who really scares you come October? It illustrates just how difficult it is to be great for 162 games and THEN play the season's most critical games.

Let's start with the defending champion Phillies. Closer Brad Lidge is still struggling to make saves less exciting (or finish them at all), and Ryan Madson can't seem to record any big outs late in games, which isn't helping either.

Cliff Lee? He's given up 12 earned runs in eight innings over his past two starts. Which Cole Hamels will show up in October? The ace that went 3-0 in May and 3-1 in July, or the guy who pitched too many innings last season and went 0-2 in April, 1-2 in June and 0-3 in August? Philadelphia is still really good, but there's an uncertainty there.

It's hard to believe in the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw hasn't won a game since July 18 (he's 0-3 with six no-decisions). He simply throws too many pitches and leaves innings that have to be picked up by an overworked Dodgers bullpen. Hold that thought, because that bullpen needs to be talked about.

Randy Wolf has been the Dodgers' best starter all season, but at one point recently, HALF of Wolf's starts had ended with no-decisions. You can see Wolf stepping up with some clutch October starts. He eats innings and is the only guy on that staff who consistently goes deep into games, which gets us back to that bullpen. It may be completely gassed by the time the postseason arrives. Tim Kurkjian points out that in the past 12 years only one team, the '07 Rockies, advanced to the World Series with a bullpen that finished the season in the top 10 in innings pitched. As of now, only the Padres' bullpen has worked more innings than the Dodgers' bullpen. L.A. could be a three-and-out in October.

Angels? I love watching the Angels and the way they play with Chone Figgins, Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis flying around the bases, with the great story of Kendry Morales' breakout season and Vlad Guerrero hitting pitches that bounce off the ground for home runs. But in the postseason, who starts the Angels' "must-win" playoff game? Which Angels starters scare you in a short series? Do you see that guy on the Angels' staff right now? I don't. What about Brian Fuentes as your "lights-out" postseason closer? Really?

The Red Sox pieces just don't seem to fit together very well. Look up Josh Beckett's past four starts. What happened? He's 0-1 with three no-decisions and has given up at least five runs in all four starts and at least seven in three of the four. The most reliable guy in Boston's bullpen (Billy Wagner) just showed up. Manny Delcarmen's stuff is electric and his numbers tell you he's solid. But watch him pitch; he can't get anybody out. Jonathan Papelbon seemingly needs to load the bases every time he comes in simply in order to concentrate. There are too many nights when Boston just looks old, tired, slow, frustrated and beatable.

The Tigers' Justin Verlander is what aces are supposed to be. He goes deep into games -- no "five and dives" from Verlander, whose mound presence always suggests he is taking personal responsibility for the entire nine innings. He doesn't look back over his shoulder toward the bullpen or to the dugout for the manager to come bail him out. He throws even harder as he goes deeper into games. Miguel Cabrera is an MVP candidate and Brandon Inge is what all baseball players are supposed to be, but watch the Tigers' bullpen close games. Next.

That leaves the Yankees and Cardinals. That's your World Series. Yankees hitters are killing the ball. The way they've developed their bullpen into a true corps of reliable relievers will become one of the most important stories of this season. Andy Pettitte has been very good and CC Sabathia could win the Cy Young. The Cardinals? Find a weakness.

Nobody ever said baseball predictions were easy. Back in March, our crack "Baseball Tonight" research guru, Mark Simon, put together a 2009 predictions sheet and 49 people who work on "Baseball Tonight" all made their season predictions.

Of the 49 participants; 24 had the Indians winning the AL Central. Only seven had the Tigers. Ouch. Some of the National League predictions went even more haywire. A staggering 43 of the 49 staff members predicted the Cubs would win the NL Central title, while only six people picked the Cardinals. As for the Mets, 23 of the predictors saw an NL East title for them in 2009. Baseball is a funny game. As the great man once said, "We knew … but we didn't know …"

Past Baseball Tonight Clubhouses: Sept. 4 | Sept. 3 | Sept. 2 | Sept. 1 | Aug. 31

WEB GEMS SCOREBOARD

This season, "Baseball Tonight" will be tracking Web Gems. We'll publish a leaderboard on the Baseball Tonight Clubhouse page each Monday. In addition to listing the leaders in appearances (both players and teams) on "Baseball Tonight," we'll offer up the leaders in Web Gem points.

Web Gem points will be calculated by awarding five points for the night's top defensive play, four points for second, three for third, two for fourth and one for fifth. Scoring will be based on the Web Gems from the last "Baseball Tonight" show to air on a given night.

Web Gem points leaderboard
Ryan Zimmerman	40
Mark Reynolds	38
Jack Wilson	37
Brandon Inge	34
Carlos Gomez	27
Jacoby Ellsbury	27
Cristian Guzman	25

Web Gem appearances leaderboard (players)
Ryan Zimmerman	Washington	Third base	13
Brandon Inge	Detroit	Third base	11
Mark Reynolds	Arizona	Third base	10
Jack Wilson	Pittsburgh-Seattle	Shortstop	9
David Wright	New York Mets	Third base	9
Five tied			7

Web Gem appearances leaderboard (teams)
Pittsburgh	34
Washington	32
Cincinnati	30
Philadelphia	29
Minnesota	27

TOUCH 'EM ALL

Who went deep? Keep track of all the home runs hit each day on "Baseball Tonight" and on the Baseball Tonight Clubhouse page.

For more, check out the Home Run Tracker page.

Home Run Tracker
NAME	HR	OPP	SITUATION
Mark Reynolds, ARI	41	Herges	Top 9: 2-1, 1 Out. None on.
Prince Fielder, MIL	37	Valdez	Bot 12: 0-1, 1 Out. None on.
Jayson Werth, PHI	31	Hawkins	Top 8: 2-0, 0 Outs. None on.
Evan Longoria, TB	28	Jackson	Bot 2: 1-2, 2 Outs. None on.
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS	28	Nunez	Bot 9: 1-1, 0 Outs. 1 on.

The complete list of Sunday's homers