Hard to see any of these surprises coming

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AP Photo/Bill Kostroun
The Cubs had high hopes at the beginning of the season, but things quickly fell apart.
By Tim Kurkjian, ESPN The Magazine
Baseball's greatest beauty is its unpredictability. Every year, the game makes us slap our foreheads and ask, "How in the world did that happen?" The game is full of surprises -- good and bad.
TOUCH 'EM ALL
Who went deep? Keep track of all the home runs hit each day on "Baseball Tonight" and on the Baseball Tonight Clubhouse page.
For more, check out the Home Run Tracker page.
| Home Run Tracker | ||||
| NAME | HR | OPP | SITUATION | |
| Prince Fielder, MIL | 44 | Hammel | Top 2: 2-1, 0 Outs. None on. | |
| Ryan Zimmerman, WAS | 33 | Parnell | Bot 8: 1-0, 1 Out. None on. | |
| Nick Swisher, NYY | 29 | Tejeda | Bot 5: 0-1, 0 Outs. 1 on. | |
| Ben Zobrist, TB | 26 | Hernandez | Bot 3: 1-1, 2 Outs. 2 on. | |
| Derek Jeter, NYY | 18 | Tejeda | Bot 1: 2-0, 0 Outs. None on. | |
ON DECK: THURSDAY'S BEST MATCHUPS
Twins at Tigers, 1:05 p.m. ET
The Twins were one win from tying the AL Central race earlier in the week. Now, they're one loss from being done. The Tigers can clinch the division with a victory in the series finale at Comerica Park. Scott Baker tries to keep Minnesota alive. That could be trouble, considering Baker is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in three starts against Detroit this season.
Rockies at Brewers, 3:10 p.m. ET

Colorado can wrap up the NL wild-card race with a win. Aaron Cook, after a month on the disabled list, pitched well in his return for the Rockies this past Friday, tossing five shutout innings against the Cardinals. Cook did not factor in the decision in Colorado's 2-1 win.
Diamondbacks at Giants, 3:45 p.m. ET

No, this game doesn't mean a thing for the postseason. It is important because Tim Lincecum gets to make one last case for his second straight Cy Young Award. He does so in an interesting pitching matchup, in that he goes head-to-head with Dan Haren. Lincecum's record has taken a hit this month; he is 1-3 so far in September.
For the rest of Thursday's schedule, click here.
BBTN ON THE AIR: THURSDAY
| TIME | WHO'S ON? |
| 7:30 p.m. ET ESPN2 |
Host: Karl Ravech Analysts: Tim Kurkjian, Eduardo Perez, Buck Showalter |
| 12 a.m. ET ESPN |
Host: Steve Berthiaume Analysts: Tim Kurkjian, Eduardo Perez, Buck Showalter |
BBTN MINUTE: ARE THE TWINS DONE?
SIMON SAYS
ESPN researcher Mark Simon digs deep looking for the night's best baseball numbers.
| .300+ BA, 120+ RBIs vs. Twins Team history |
||
| BA | RBIs | |
| Magglio Ordonez | .326 | 134 |
| Fred Lynn | .325 | 126 |
| George Brett | .316 | 128 |
| Jim Thome | .311 | 142 |
| Eddie Murray | .305 | 133 |
WEB GEMS
WEDNESDAY'S BEST AND WORST
| BEST |
• Ricky Nolasco put a serious dent in the Braves' playoff hopes with a dominant performance. Nolasco struck out 16 hitters -- he whiffed nine consecutive hitters during one stretch -- in the Marlins' 5-4 win. The loss pushed Atlanta four behind Colorado in the wild-card race. |
WORST |
• The Cubs were swept at home in a doubleheader by the Pirates. It was the first time since 1983 the Cubs were swept in a doubleheader at Wrigley Field. Carlos Zambrano couldn't stop the sweep; he gave up four runs in the first three innings in the nightcap as the Cubs lost 8-2. |
NUMBERS TO KNOW
The Atlanta Braves start what is basically a sweep-or-go-home series Thursday night against the Nationals in Atlanta. (The Braves are four back in the wild card).
The Braves will send Tommy Hanson to the hill for the most important start of his rookie year. Not only is Hanson (11-4) looking to polish his Rookie of the Year résumé, but one loss in this series could eliminate the Braves from the NL wild-card race.
Hanson has gone 2-1 in three starts against the Nats this season, including a win this past Saturday when Hanson went seven innings and struck out seven in an 11-5 Braves victory. Hanson was dominant with his slider in that start, as Nationals hitters went 0-for-8 with five strikeouts.
| Hanson's slider (2009) | ||
| vs. Nationals | vs. rest of MLB | |
| BA | .056 | .241 |
| Chase pct. | 36.7 | 39.6 |
| Miss pct. | 31.6 | 40.0 |
| K pct. of PA | 36.8 | 28.1 |
FANTASY: PREVIEW OF THURSDAY'S GAMES
AJ Mass examines the 11 games on Thursday's slate.
HUNT FOR OCTOBER
Here's the latest in the wild-card races:| AL CENTRAL | |||
| TEAM | W-L | GB | POFF |
| Tigers | 85-73 | -- | 96.0% |
| Twins | 82-76 | 3.0 | 4.0% |
| NL WILD CARD | |||
| TEAM | W-L | GB | POFF |
| Rockies | 90-68 | -- | 99.2% |
| Braves | 86-72 | 4.0 | 0.8% |

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• The Cubs were swept at home in a doubleheader by the Pirates. It was the first time since 1983 the Cubs were swept in a doubleheader at Wrigley Field.