Updated: September 29, 2003, 6:50 PM ET

Crucial confrontations

The pivotal battles to watch heading into the postseason: Some are physical, many are psychological.

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By Buster Olney
ESPN The Magazine

The 10 most intriguing Division Series matchups:

Edgardo Alfonzo
Edgardo Alfonzo is off to another terrible start.

1. Giants' No. 5 hitters vs. Jack McKeon and other managers
The preferred strategy is clear: you have to walk the most dangerous hitter in history, Barry Bonds, and take your chances with the next guy. Felipe Alou used Benito Santiago, Marquis Grissom and Edgardo Alfonzo in the No. 5 slot in his batting order over the last 10 days of the season, but Alfonzo makes the most sense. He batted .294 after the All-Star break, accumulating 46 RBI in 194 at-bats, and he will put the ball in play, which is what you want with runners on base. Alfonzo had 23 walks and only 12 strikeouts in 150 at-bats when batting fifth this season.

2. Chicago's stuff vs. Atlanta bats
The Braves had the best offense in the National League, generating the most runs, the most total bases, and the second-highest on-base percentage. The Cubs' power-pitching staff accumulated a staggering 1,396 strikeouts, including 266 in 211 innings from Kerry Wood, 168 in 214 innings from Carlos Zambrano and 245 in 211.1 innings from Mark Prior. History shows that teams with power staffs usually fare well in the postseason (Nasty Boys in '90, for example, Johnson and Schilling in '01), because the strikeout is such an equalizer with runners on base.

3. Derek Lowe vs. himself
Boston's Game 3 starter does not seem capable of the yeoman 6 innings-and-3-runs-and-keep-you-in-the-game type outing, which would probably be enough considering the quality of the Boston offense. He made 33 starts this year and mostly was very good or very bad -- he allowed five or more runs in 11 starts and two runs or less in 11 starts. If he starts to get frustrated, Lowe can collapse totally and in a hurry. But he will start in Fenway Park, where he has been incredible -- 11-2 and 3.21 ERA, as opposed to 6-5 and a 6.11 ERA on the road.

4. Brad Radke's changeup vs. Yankees' anxiety
This comes into play particularly if the Twins beat the Yankees in Game 1. The Yankees are not the patient team of past seasons; Alfonso Soriano, Aaron Boone and Karim Garcia will go to the plate hacking, and the Yankees' hitters might be even more jumpy if they lose Game 1. That would play right into the hands of Radke, who takes advantage of anxious hitters with his changeup -- which he used with extraordinary effect at the end of the year.

5. Florida speed vs. San Francisco pitchers
Giants catcher Benito Santiago has a good arm, but that's mostly irrelevant. The Marlins' success in stealing bases will depend entirely on how the Giants' hurlers keep them close, or keep them off bases. Jason Schmidt might have the most dominant stuff of any pitcher in this postseason, but you can run on him -- there were 17 stolen base attempts against him this year, and nobody was thrown out. Game 2 starter Sidney Ponson is relatively quick to the plate in his delivery, and he surrendered only four steals in six attempts after joining the Giants. If the Marlins are going to run against Game 3 starter Kirk Rueter, they will have to cope with his exceptional move to first base. Over the last three years, opponents have only seven steals in 22 attempts; in his career, opponents are 32-for-90 trying to steal.

6. Eric Chavez vs. Boston lefties

Chavez
Chavez
The Oakland third baseman has a distinct vulnerability against left-handed pitchers -- during the regular season, he batted .312 vs. right-handers, .218 vs. left-handers. There will be at least one at-bat in each game when it will make sense for Red Sox manager Grady Little to summon one of his left-handers to pitch to Chavez, but the question is: who? Alan Embree struggled in September, and left-handers had a higher average (.263) than righties (.221) against him, and lefties hit four of the five home runs he allowed. Scott Sauerbeck was acquired from Pittsburgh for situations like this, and overall, lefties batted just .192 against Sauerbeck. But since joining Boston, Sauerbeck has pitched like Rick Ankiel, walking 18 and allowing 17 hits in 16.2 innings, for a 6.48 ERA. The stealth weapon: Chavez is 3-for-21 in his career against Jeff Suppan. Would Little have the guts to go against the book and bring in a righty against Chavez?

7. Slop-throwing closers vs. the Bashers
It has been a long, long time since any team with a soft-tossing closer has won a World Series. The championship closers of the last decade (Byung-Hyun Kim omitted, because he didn't close anything in 2001): Troy Percival, Mariano Rivera, Robb Nen, John Wetteland, Mark Wohlers, Tom Henke. But Minnesota is finishing games with Eddie Guardado and Oakland with Keith Foulke, who trick hitters rather than blowing them away. Guardado has good career numbers against Jason Giambi (4-for-27, eight strikeouts) and terrible numbers against Bernie Williams (11-for-28, four homers). Foulke has had very good success against the Red Sox bangers -- Manny Ramirez is 1-for-10 with four strikeouts, Nomar Garciaparra 2-for-10, Bill Mueller 0-for-7 and four strikeouts, Trot Nixon is 0-for-6 with three strikeouts. But everything changes in the postseason.

8. John Smoltz vs. his pain
He's thrown nine innings in two months because of his bad elbow. The Braves might need him to pitch three or four times a week for the next month. If he can't handle the load, Atlanta probably has no chance.

9. Umpires vs. the Rule Book
There was a closer examination of the way Oakland reliever Chad Bradford maintained contact with the pitching rubber --- or didn't -- when the Athletics played the Mariners eight days ago. That might be a precursor to a lot of rule-book waving in this postseason. Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire is apt to ask umpires to check Mike Mussina and Jeff Nelson on this technicality. Even if the umpires don't find fault, it is possible managers could use this for some head games. If Lou Piniella was managing in the postseason, you better believe he would employ this tactic.

10. The Red Sox and Cubs vs. history
Will The Curses finally be broken?

Buster Olney is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine.