Simulations say ... Rockies going to World Series
The 2007 League Division Series fell just one Yankees rally shy of an unprecented 3-0 sweep by all four series winners. In our NLDS preview for ESPN.com, we projected the Rockies and Cubs to advance to the League Championship Series; the Rockies swept the Phillies and now have won 17 of their last 18 games, but the Diamondbacks defied the odds against a lackluster Cubs squad.
Imagine SportsThe simulations were done using the Diamond Mind Baseball software, which was developed by renowned baseball statistics expert Tom Tippett. Diamond Mind is now widely regarded as the most sophisticated and realistic baseball simulation software and was named PC Magazine's "Editor's Choice" for pc-based baseball software. Diamond Mind is now owned by Imagine Sports, a Silicon Valley-based Internet company developing multiplayer online simulation games, including Diamond Mind Online, an online baseball management game licensed and promoted by MLB Advanced Media.
ROCKIES VS. DIAMONDBACKS NLCS COL in 4 COL in 5 COL in 6 COL in 7 ARI in 7 ARI in 6 ARI in 5 ARI in 4 Overall COL-ARI 121 189 192 191 108 104 72 23 693-307
In our NLDS simulations, a key to Colorado's success was the ability of its pitchers to keep Ryan Howard and the rest of the Phillies in check. The story is similar in our NLCS simulations, with the Diamondbacks averaging just 3.98 runs per game, compared to 4.79 for the Rockies.For Arizona, Stephen Drew hit just .217, Chris Young .208 with one homer, and Eric Byrnes .263 with one homer on average over our 1,000 series runs. For Colorado, Matt Holliday, Todd Helton and Brad Hawpe all had big series. Colorado's biggest edge may be in the bullpen, with Rockies relievers posting a collective ERA of just 3.48, compared to 4.82 for the Diamondbacks.
2007 Season Stats GM HR RBI R OBP AVG 158 36 137 120 .405 .340 ROCKIES VS. DIAMONDBACKS NLCS COL in 4 COL in 5 COL in 6 COL in 7 ARI in 7 ARI in 6 ARI in 5 ARI in 4 Overall COL-ARI 232 238 222 154 78 45 31 0 846-154
If Webb and his teammates win Game 1, however, the odds get better for the Diamondbacks, but the Rockies enter the series with such a substantial projected edge that they remain the favorites even if they drop the first game, still winning 55 percent of our simulations despite losing the opener:
ROCKIES VS. DIAMONDBACKS NLCS COL in 4 COL in 5 COL in 6 COL in 7 ARI in 7 ARI in 6 ARI in 5 ARI in 4 Overall COL-ARI 0 113 214 223 115 141 132 62 550-450
Accordingly, Imagine Sports projects the Rockies to make the franchise's first World Series appearance. Given that the 2007 season began with a cold, snowy April in much of the country with many games snowed out, there is a certain ironic symmetry to the fact that the season could well finish in equally frigid conditions on an icy October night if the World Series comes to Denver.
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