Career Assessments
Bill James invented Career Assessments, formerly called the Favorite Toy, as a projection method to predict final career totals for players. The formula presumes that a player has (42 - age)/2 seasons remaining, but not less than 1.5 seasons, and it is determined using the player's age on June 30 of the previous year. If the player is a catcher, his remaining seasons are multiplied by 0.7. Using the established norms and years remaining, the final total is projected, and the chance to reach that total can be derived. No player can have more than a 97-percent chance to reach any goal.
Examples
Barry Bonds - 756 Home Runs
Derek Jeter - 3,000 Hits
C.C. Sabathia - 250 Wins
Through 2006
INSIDE MLB
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