Consensus: Americans are too tough
STOCKHOLM, Sweden -- At breakfast Sunday, there were plenty of conversations in Swedish. But over the din, two surprisingly familiar voices rang out, complete with a slight Boston accent.
Yearning for some conversation with American ties, I didn't hesitate to ask the couple at the neighboring table if they were, indeed, from the United States.
Indeed they were. Dick and Doris O'Rourke answered in very friendly fashion that they were from Boston and were in the middle of a European trip that also included stops to London, Copenhagen and Oslo. I told the O'Rourkes that I was in town covering the Eurobasket 2003, an Olympic qualifying tournament for European countries, and was currently working on a story about whether any of these countries competing here could challenge the mighty American Dream Team at the 2004 Athens Olympics.
After hearing about my story, Mr. O'Rourke asked:
''We can't lose. Can we?"
Well, after watching the top eight teams compete at Eurobasket 2003, the answer is simple: It looks good for the Americans. The United States will be favored heavily and should go undefeated en route to a gold in Athens.
But along the way, there could be some tough games and obstacles for the Americans.
''We took a big step this summer in reasserting the United States as one of the legitimate powers in basketball,'' said Craig Miller, USA Basketball assistant executive director of communications. ''Certainly, the big win over Argentina in the gold medal game (at the Tournament of Americas) was evident in that. We also had an eight-point victory over them in the second round, when it was a close game all the way down to the end.
''But there are some teams that, given the right circumstances, are still going to be able to play with the U.S. Serbia & Montenegro is one of them. Lithuania is one of them, judging from the two-point game in the (2000 Sydney) Olympics, where they had a shot to win it.''
Gold medal winner Lithuania and disappointing Serbia & Montenegro both took part in Eurobasket 2003. Those are the only two European countries that could make the Americans sweat a little in Athens. But there are a couple of others to keep an eye on as well.
A look at the European competition, one year out.
Serbia & Montenegro
Believe it or not, European power Serbia & Montenegro, formerly Yugoslavia, didn't medal at Eurobasket 2003 (it finished sixth). There is a simple reason why the 2002 World Championship winner, which already qualified for the Olympics, struggled. Just like the U.S. a year ago at the World Championships, Sergia & Montenegro didn't bring its top players, leaving Sacramento Kings center Vlade Divac and heralded Detroit Pistons rookie Darko Milicic home.
As a result, Serbia & Montenegro mimicked the '02 Americans and was eliminated from the medal round with a 16-point quarterfinals loss to Lithuania.
But the Serbia & Montenegro team in the Olympics should be a better team than the one that won the World Championship. Divac, due to his age, may be on the outside looking in. But even so, the roster is still loaded with NBA players and international stars.
Sacramento Kings all-star forward Peja Stojakovic, who injured an ankle in preliminary action here, headlines the team. Other veteran NBA players on the roster include Seattle SuperSonics center Predrag Drobnjak and forward Vladimir Radmanovic, as well as Los Angeles Clippers guard Marko Jaric, who suffered a nose injury during the tournament that led to surgery. Next, add three 2003 NBA first round picks in Milicic, Utah Jazz guard Aleksandar Pavlovic and Phoenix Suns forward Zarko Cabarkapa. Then add two star Spanish pros in usual team captain Dejan Bodiroga (who is European pro basketball's highest paid player) and Dejan Tomasevic.
| “ | We have to have a really good day, and they really have to have a really bad day. ” | |
| — Peja Stojakovic |
Serbia & Montenegro's biggest problem could be coach Dusan Vujosevic. Although a lot of key players were missing, Vujosevic is unproven coaching on the international level, wasn't the first choice for the job, didn't see eye-to-eye with several of his players and had his job put in question by the media after a quarterfinals loss.
With their roster depth, talent and familiarity with the international game, Serbia & Montenegro could give the U.S. its toughest fight. But unless his country is at the top of its game, Stojakovic didn't think an upset is possible.
''No. No. They're good,'' Stojakovic said. ''They proved that during qualification for the Olympics. ... I don't think so. We have to have a really good day, and they really have to have a really bad day.''
Lithuania
Lithuania is Europe's new continental champ. And given its size, unselfishness, shooting skills, passing ability and past success, the U.S. definitely shouldn't take this country lightly.
Lithuania only had one NBA player on its roster, Kings rookie forward Darius Songaila, en route to winning the Eurobasket gold medal with a 93-84 win over Spain on Sunday night. When the Olympics arrive, that number could be three if Cleveland center Zydrunas Ilgauskas and 2001 Spurs draftee Robertas Javtokas, who stands 7-0 and has recently returned to action after overcoming a near fatal motorcycle accident in April of 2002, are on the roster. The Lithuanians also have another 7-footer in Eurelijus Zukauskas, who had 18 points on 7-of-8 shooting and seven rebounds in the gold medal game.
Lithuania plays Princeton-style basketball. The Lithuanians are loaded with sharp-shooters who need just a little bit of daylight to knock down a 3-pointer, run plays with precision until there is an easy basket available, have respectable size, play tough zone defense and rarely make mistakes. Lithuania also may have the rowdiest fans in the world. They blow ear piercing whistles that sound like a massive swarm of killer bees from the jump ball to the final buzzer -- but only when the opponents are on offense.
What Lithuania lacks is quickness and athleticism. And a victory over the Americans in the Olympics.
A late put-back by Antonio McDyess during the semifinals in Sydney kept the Americans from being upset by Lithuania. Even three years later, a group of Lithuanian fans in Sweden were still expressing remorse over that loss. Lithuania assistant Donnie Nelson, who serves as president of basketball operations for the Dallas Mavericks, said that 2000 game was long enough ago that it won't be a factor in helping Lithuania's confidence.
Nelson believes it would be tough for Lithuania to defeat the U.S., and that Serbia & Montenegro could make it interesting if the Americans aren't focused. But if the Americans start off slow or get frustrated by hard to figure out referees, Nelson also added that 40-minute games against the likes of Lithuania and Serbia & Montenegro could be a bear to win.
''The nature of the international game is what makes it,'' Nelson said. ''The shorter 3-point shot. It's harder to coach and control the game. In the NBA we can call timeouts whenever we want to and set-up situations. You can set up defensive substitutions at the end of the game.
''(International basketball) is really a player's game. It's also a shorter game, which gives a better chance for an upset. Remember some of the things that happened in Indianapolis. When things get hot, boy, that game is over in a flash.''
Spain
Spain is led by Memphis Grizzlies star forward Pau Gasol, the 2002 NBA Rookie of the Year who scored a game-high 36 points during a loss in the gold medal game. The Spaniards also have an exciting and slashing yet undersized guard in Juan Carlos Navarro, who was drafted by the Washington Wizards.
The Gasol-Navarro show, however, isn't even close to being good enough to make the Americans nervous. While Gasol is talented, the likes of Tim Duncan and Jermaine O'Neal can shut him down if he doesn't have help. As for Navarro, Jason Kidd, Allen Iverson and Mike Bibby will show him that continuing to play basketball professionally in Spain may be a wise decision over coming to the Wizards.
''It will be hard to beat them, really hard to beat them,'' Gasol said. ''They're a really good team. They will have to have a bad day for a chance to beat them.''
Italy
After losing to France by 33 points in preliminary play, Italy surprisingly won the bronze medal and last Olympic spot at Eurobasket with a 69-67 win in a rematch.
As a result, the French, whose roster includes four NBA players in Tony Parker, Tariq Abdul-Wahad, Jerome Moiso and Boris Diaw, will be on vacation next summer.
The tall Italians won the bronze without two key members of their team in shooting guard Carlton Myers and 7-1 center Gregory Fucka, who once was considered an NBA prospect. But the only way this country can scare the United States is if Tony Soprano and his buddies to show up.
When asked what he thought about the USA squad, Italy forward Nikola Radulovic said: ''What do you think about the U.S.? It's the best team in the world.''
Outlook
As good as this summer's U.S. squad was, it will be even better next summer. Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Karl Malone and possibly even Shaquille O'Neal could take the trip to Athens (none were on the roster for the qualifier in Puerto Rico). Add that to Kidd, Duncan, O'Neal, Iverson, Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter and this American squad could be the best American squad since the original Dream Team in 1992.
Original Dream Team member Larry Bird, now president of basketball operations for the Indiana Pacers, was at Eurobasket for mainly scouting reasons. And while looking and familiarizing himself with players, Bird also felt quite comfortable in answering Mr. O'Rourke's question about the American chances.
''They'll be fine," Bird said. "Unless Shaquille O'Neal plays for a different team, they are going to win."
Marc J. Spears, who covers the NBA and Denver Nuggets for The Denver Post, is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.
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