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Updated: Oct. 27, 2006, 12:09 PM ET
SPECIAL PREVIEW EDITION
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| ANALYST | COMMENT |
 MarcStein ESPN.com |
Pau's likely out until January and Jerry West -- again -- is contemplating retirement at season's end. The Grizz, in other words, are dealing with the two scenarios they dread most. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 14 |
 ChrisSheridan ESPN.com |
Memo to Brian Davis: If your purchase of the team goes through, see what you can get for Pau Gasol. He's already fulfilled his career goal of winning a World Championship for Spain. The Grizz are just his day job. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 12 |
 JimO'Brien ESPN.com |
How do you overcome the loss of Pau Gasol? Mike Fratello is capable of working wonders, but this is a difficult struggle until Gasol comes back. If the Grizzlies make the playoffs, Fratello should get coach of the year. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 11 |
 TimLegler ESPN.com |
With Gasol injured, their season rests upon the rapid evolution of youngsters Hakim Warrick, lottery pick Rudy Gay and underrated rookie Kyle Lowry. DIVISION RANK: 4 | CONFERENCE RANK: 9 |
 ScoopJackson ESPN.com |
With Pau out until January, J-West should have retired at the end of last season, not this one coming up. With Stromile Swift back and Rudy Gay maybe getting ROY, the Grizz might be able to make a run … in 2008. DIVISION RANK: 4 | CONFERENCE RANK: 11 |
 JohnHollinger ESPN.com |
Odds were stacked against Grizz even before Pau got hurt -- they traded their best defender, they lost two key free agents with no compensating acquisitions, their GM has one foot out the door and their backcourt's average age is about 75. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 14 |
 ChadFord ESPN.com |
Personnel setbacks and Gasol's broken foot mean the outlook isn't pretty. Still, some talented rookies and a brighter financial future mean this might be just a one-year vacation from the playoffs. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 14 |
 RicBucher ESPN Mag |
Even if Pau Gasol weren't out until January they might not have made the playoffs again, but Gasol's absence and a lot of early road games assure a slow start, which will be deadly in the West this season. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 12 |
 ChrisBroussard ESPN Mag |
Have done it with smoke and mirrors the past few seasons, but can a bunch of role players keep winning 50? Not without Pau. If they somehow remain around .500 until Gasol returns, they'll have a shot at the playoffs again. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 12 |
 GregAnthony ESPN.com |
I still think this is a team that could make the playoffs. Figuring out what to do on the front line opposite Pau can spur them back into contention. DIVISION RANK: 5 | CONFERENCE RANK: 9 |
| Average ranks |
DIVISION: 4.8 | Standings CONFERENCE: 11.6 | Standings |
| STARTERS | ANALYSIS |
 Damon StoudamirePoint Guard 5-10 | 174 |
… is an aging point guard. Especially one who's 5-10. |
 Eddie JonesShooting Guard 6-6 | 200 |
The only thing worse than an aging shooting guard is … (see above) |
 Mike MillerSmall Forward 6-8 | 218 |
Sixth Man winner is default first option without Pau. |
 Stromile SwiftPower Forward 6-9 | 225 |
No, this is the year we see if he can play. |
 Jake TsakalidisCenter 7-2 | 290 |
Because someone has to, that's why. |
| Bench: Rudy Gay aims to start, Dahntay Jones and Hakim Warrick aim for alley-oops, Chucky Atkins aims from deep and Brian Cardinal aims for his man's ribs. | |
ESPN The Magazine's NBA Preview hits newsstands October 25.
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Player efficiency rating projection: 16.12 vs. NBA avg.: +1.12 Grizzlies profiles |
Scouting report: At 7-2, 290 pounds, Tsakalidis is an immovable target in the lane, and he has a decent right-handed hook shot that he uses to finish from close range. He's at his best playing against other big centers, and for some reason has always played extremely well against Shaquille O'Neal -- last season he scored 10 points in 16 minutes against him.
His size is also an asset defensively against the right opponent, but he must be spotted carefully. Tsakalidis is ponderously slow, so he's of little use helping against pick-and-rolls and his speed in transition is another concern.
2006-07 outlook: Alright, Einstein, you think he'll shoot that well again? Me neither. Tsakalidis' career average isn't even 50 percent, let alone 60, so expect his field-goal percentage to do a boomerang this season. The rebound rate may hold up better, since it's much less fluky than field-goal percentage -- in other words, changes in this stat are more likely to result from a real shift in ability. Even so, the statistical projections are probably too rosy, and nobody will be shocked if Tsakalidis has trouble hanging on to his starting spot in the Memphis frontcourt.
The right approach, given Gasol's injury?
55.9% Think ''playoffs'' anyway
44.1% Play the youngsters, no matter what
What would it take for you to get a tattoo of the Grizzlies' logo on your chest?
"Now introducing the Western Conference All-Stars, at center, 7-2, from the Memphis Grizzlies, Jake Tsakalidis!!!"
If I hear these words this season, there is no doubt that I would get a tattoo of the Grizzlies' logo on my chest.
You know what, if Big Jake makes the All-Star team this year, I will not only get the logo on my chest, but I will get "whiteboy" tattooed across my knuckles, a la former Grizzlies point guard Jason Williams.
• Thomas McKee | Beale Street Beat
| MIKE FRATELLO COACHING FILE |
 Experience: 16 yearsRecord: 661-524 Playoffs: 20-42 NBA titles: 0 Coach's profile |
Mike Fratello has the difficult task of guiding his team in the early going without his franchise player, Pau Gasol.
His strategies might be completely different than they were last season, and change again when Gasol returns. The Grizzlies have the athletes now to go up-tempo, so Fratello needs to decide if he wants to go that route in Gasol's absence.
Fratello will have to push his guys really hard early to stay competitive, in hopes that a Gasol return will push them over the edge toward a playoff berth.
– David Thorpe
Both Eddie Jones and Mike Miller score a ton of points coming off pin-downs, turning and firing after the catch, while Stoudamire is a good off-the-dribble shooter. Atkins isn't as likely to create a shot but is deadly when left open, and Gay's high-arcing jumper should be a real weapon from the corners. Although Shane Battier is gone, reserve forward Brian Cardinal is an even better shooter and could take over some of those minutes if his knees are healthy.
The challenge will be creating some free throws out of all those jumpers. One reason Memphis' free-throw percentage was so poor was because Gasol was the one taking most of them -- nearly a third (29.7 percent) of the team's attempts on the season.
With him out of the lineup for two months, Memphis is likely to be at or near the bottom of the league in free-throw attempts, and that will make it incredibly tough for the Grizzlies to be a decent offensive team.
Sleeper: Mike Miller will have to be more than the best sixth man in the NBA this season. Because of Pau Gasol's foot surgery, the Grizzlies will have to account for his 20 points per game somehow. Why not Miller? He's a good shooter from everywhere, so he's a natural to take on more of the scoring load as he enters the prime of his career.
Bust: Eddie Jones just turned 35 and he's now at the point in his career where he hurts you much more than he helps you in fantasy. Sure, he still makes a bunch of threes and steals, but he's a detriment in nearly every other category. Even Gasol's absence won't make Jones more desirable.
– Keith Lipscomb | Fantasy Hoops Index
