ESPN NBA

ANALYST	PREDICTION
J.A. Adande ESPN.com	SOUTHWEST: 2 | WEST: 3  You wonder how much psychological baggage the Mavs carry with them into this season. Will one bad turn in the playoffs bring on too many doubts and old issues?
Greg Anthony ESPN.com	SOUTHWEST: 3 | WEST: 5  A team bearing psychological scars from the past two seasons. This is a real factor. And if Devin Harris doesn't prove to be a legitimate starter, and Jerry Stackhouse has to start, that could have a big effect.
Jon Barry ESPN.com	SOUTHWEST: 2 | WEST: 3  Most of the blame for the playoff disappointment is on Dirk Nowitzki, but it also has to be with this team. The Mavs have to come out focused, out to prove last season's playoff failure was a fluke.
Chris Broussard ESPN Mag	SOUTHWEST: 2 | WEST: 3  No team will dread the 82-game season more than Dallas. It's all about postseason performance for the Mavs, who have melted down famously the past two years. Do the Mavs (and particularly MVP Dirk Nowitzki) have the mental toughness to bounce back? Honestly, I'm not sure.
Ric Bucher ESPN Mag	SOUTHWEST: 2 | WEST: 3  There's a reason Mark Cuban is trying so hard to get Kobe Bryant: As it stands, he doesn't have the go-to closer a team needs to win a title. As is, they're a nice bunch of pretty good players, leaving them vulnerable to being mad-dogged right out of a series. Again.
Chad Ford ESPN.com	SOUTHWEST: 3 | WEST: 5  If we could put three Southwest teams in the top four, we would. The Mavs should be just as dangerous as they were last year. The question is really about confidence. After imploding in two consecutive playoff series, does this team believe anymore?
Jemele Hill ESPN.com	SOUTHWEST: 1 | WEST: 1  Despite the Mavs' penchant for playing small when it matters, I don't think they're ready to lie down just yet. This is still an extremely talented team. If they can tune out the chump talk, they'll be there in the end.
John Hollinger ESPN.com	SOUTHWEST: 3 | WEST: 5  Dirk won't win MVP again unless he averages a triple-double, but the Mavs will again be among the league's elite. Questions for them don't start until April, when they have to shake off recent disappointments.
Chris Sheridan ESPN.com	SOUTHWEST: 3 | WEST: 5  We'd call them mental midgets after watching them melt down the past two postseasons, but that's a little harsh. Still, we're down on their collective cranium capacity when things get tight, and it's hard not to wonder whether we've already seen them peak.
Marc Stein ESPN.com	SOUTHWEST: 1 | WEST: 2  I'm going to let Dirk supply this thumbnail sketch on the elite team that knows playoff torture like no other: "You [media] guys all talk, but nobody really knows if we can [bounce back] or we can't. We're just going to have to go out and get over it."
	TOTAL             SOUTHWEST: 2.2 | Standings             WEST: 3.5 | Standings

Team Strength: One-On-One Play

The Mavs are the masters of the isolation, with Dirk Nowitzki leading the way. Setting up shop from his office at the top of the key, he can survey the defense before lofting a jumper over smaller defenders or taking bigger ones off the dribble.

But he's far from the only one.

Dallas has several players who can wreak havoc if the opponent fails to match up correctly, as Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Terry and Devin Harris all are capable shot creators in individual matchups. Second-year pro J.J. Barea could be another -- his D-League numbers from last season were off the charts.

This is what enabled the Mavs to beat San Antonio in the playoffs two seasons ago, as they were able to take advantage of whatever mismatch presented itself by allowing that offensive player to attack.

Conversely, one reason they struggled against the Warriors was that Golden State's lineup matched up so well against everyone besides Nowitzki, and Dirk couldn't find his jumper.

• John Hollinger's complete Mavericks forecast

STARTERS	ANALYSIS
Devin Harris Point Guard 6-3 | 185	D whiz has Nash and Mr. Longoria covered. Now, about Baron Davis …
Jason Terry Shooting Guard 6-2 | 180	On in years, down in speed. Is it off to the bench and up with Stackhouse?
Josh Howard Small Forward 6-7 | 210	First-time All-Star has to hit gym if he wants another invite.
Dirk Nowitzki Power Forward 7-0 | 245	Spent summer camping in Australia. Hope he finds his way back by tip-off.
DeSagana Diop Center 7-0 | 280	Brings enough D and hops, but needs a visa for offense.

ESPN The Magazine's NBA Preview hits newsstands October 24.

Eddie Jones Player efficiency rating projection: 11.61 vs. NBA avg.: -3.39 Mavericks profiles

Scouting report: Though he turns 36 in the preseason, Jones is still a decent athlete and can defend the shooting guard position. He's bigger than most 2s at 6-6 and has great anticipation, finishing in the top 10 in steals as recently as two years ago. He's not an on-ball stopper, but he does a decent job in those situations too.

Offensively, Jones is no longer the transition threat he once was and now gets nearly all his points off long jump shots. While his 3-point stroke remains solid (35.1 percent last year; 37.5 percent career), he hardly ever gets to the free-throw line these days. When he does put it on the floor, it's usually one bounce followed by a 2-pointer.

2007-08 outlook: Jones signed a two-year deal with Dallas for the biannual exception over the summer. While at first glance this looks like your typical Mavs irrational infatuation with a veteran role player, this one is actually a bit of a bargain because Jones still looks to have some life left in him.

Jones can be the defensive answer off the bench at the wings, much as Jerry Stackhouse is the main offensive sub, and he won't kill the offense the way Greg Buckner and Devean George did a year ago.

Look for him to play 15 minutes a game or so off the pine, and while his numbers might continue their gentle decline, he should provide a decent source of 3-point shooting and defense -- something the Mavs sorely could have used in the first round a year ago.