ESPN NBA Draft

Originally Published: June 15, 2006

PG Shakur still undecided on staying in draft

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By Andy Katz
ESPN.com
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No college coach has had more experience dealing with NBA draft early entrants than Arizona's Lute Olson.

"We've seen it all," Olson said.

"We've seen the guy who signed [Ndudi Ebi] and went, the guys who have been here for two years [Mike Bibby], for three [Richard Jefferson], a player like Luke Walton who was here for five years, and Steve Kerr, too, who ended up with five rings.

"We've seen just about everything, a player like Jason Gardner, who really got hurt by testing the waters because he didn't have a good Chicago [predraft] camp, and when he came back for his senior season, the NBA scouts didn't forget," Olson said of Gardner, who went undrafted.

Then there was Gilbert Arenas, who was in the same draft class as Jefferson (and fellow junior Michael Wright). Arenas left after two years, only to slide into the second round, taken at No. 31 by Golden State. He has since re-upped for megamoney and is a star with Washington.

"Street people told him he was going to be lottery or in the teens for sure," Olson said. "And yet the best thing that happened to him was that he wasn't in the first round and not covered by the rookie salary cap."

Well, to paraphrase Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen's famous quip to Dan Quayle, Mustafa Shakur is no Gilbert Arenas.

Yet here is Olson again, dealing with this early-entrant issue, this time with his junior point guard. Shakur has until Sunday to decide whether he's staying in the draft. So far, he has maintained a rather low profile in the quest to be drafted. Shakur worked out for Memphis and in front of roughly 15 scouts in Chicago at Hoops The Gym and has scheduled workouts with Cleveland and Detroit before the deadline.

Shakur isn't considered a candidate for Memphis' No. 24 pick in the first round or Cleveland's No. 25. Rather, he would be considered, maybe, for the Cavs' No. 42 or 55 pick in the second round or possibly Detroit's No. 60 in the second round. Memphis doesn't have a second-round pick.

Shakur said last week during the Orlando predraft camp, where he was solid but hardly scintillating, that going in the second round isn't all that bad. He cited Arenas. He mentioned Carlos Boozer of Duke as another second-round success story.

But, as Olson said, it's not just about being drafted but more about being successful in the NBA.

"There's a difference between getting to the league and staying in the league," Olson said.

Olson said he spoke with Shakur on Tuesday about the NBA's evaluation of him at the predraft camp.

"He was told they had to leave right away for the Euro camp [in Italy] so they would have to get back to him," Olson said.

Read between the lines there, and it's not a ringing endorsement for Shakur's candidacy.

"He obviously wants to be in the first round, but if he's in the second round, the opinion around here from a couple of assistants is that he would still go if he were in the second round," Olson said. "Most kids in big cities [Shakur is from Philadelphia] have people in their ear, but those people have no clue. They are telling [the player] what they want to hear."

If Shakur withdraws -- or even goes through the draft, isn't selected and doesn't sign with an agent -- there will be an expectation placed on him. Olson said he won't feel as though he owes anything to Shakur just because he returned, as the Wildcats have rising sophomore J.P. Prince and incoming freshman Nic Wise to play the point. Instead, Shakur could be the lockdown defender and provide some rebounding and penetration.

"But he needs to be a distributor rather than [a point guard] looking for points," Olson said. "If he's going to create for his shot, then he's not effective. Him working out for teams and going to Orlando may give him a better idea why I said for him to make it in the league, he has to become a leading assist player."

Last season, Shakur averaged 11.2 points and 4.7 assists a game and shot 42.3 percent overall (33.3 percent on 3s).

"He should take the shot when it's there, but not when it's not," Olson said. "If he comes back, it would solidify what I've been trying to tell him."

Olson also pointed out that Shakur's shot was like a football spiral when he arrived on campus. He said that the mechanics have improved dramatically but that there is more work to do.

"My gut feeling is that he's 50-50," Olson said. "But if he gets a commitment in the second round, I think he takes it."

But a commitment in the second round is about the least certain thing in the NBA draft. If Shakur tunes out Olson and goes undrafted, he'll have no one to blame but himself.

Andy Katz is a senior writer for ESPN.com.